998 resultados para climate optimum
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Dans le contexte d'un climat de plus en plus chaud, une étude « géosystémique » de la répartition du pergélisol dans l'ensemble d'un versant périglaciaire alpin, de la paroi rocheuse jusqu'au glacier rocheux, s'avère primordiale. S'insérant dans cette problématique, ce travail de thèse vise comme objectif général l'étude des versants d'éboulis situés à l'intérieur de la ceinture du pergélisol discontinu selon deux volets de recherche différents : une étude de la stratigraphie et de la répartition du pergélisol dans les éboulis de haute altitude et des processus qui lui sont associés ; une reconstitution de l'histoire paléoenvironnementale du domaine périglaciaire alpin pendant le Tardiglaciaire et l'Holocène. La stratigraphie et la répartition spatiale du pergélisol a été étudiée dans cinq éboulis des Alpes Valaisannes (Suisse), dont trois ont fait l'objet de forages profonds, grâce à la prospection géophysique de détail effectuée à l'aide de méthodes thermiques, de résistivité, sismiques et nucléaires. Les mesures effectuées ont permis de mettre en évidence que, dans les cinq éboulis étudiés, la répartition du pergélisol est discontinue et aucun des versants n'est intégralement occupé par du pergélisol. En particulier, il a été possible de prouver de manière directe que, dans un éboulis, le pergélisol est présent dans les parties inférieures du versant et absent dans les parties supérieures. Trois facteurs de contrôle principaux de la répartition du pergélisol déterminée au sein des éboulis étudiés ont été individualisés, pouvant agir seuls ou de manière combinée : la ventilation ascendante, l'augmentation de la granulométrie en direction de l'aval et la redistribution de la neige par le vent et les avalanches. Parmi ceux-ci, la relation ventilation-granulométrie semble être le facteur de contrôle principal permettant d'expliquer la présence de pergélisol dans les parties inférieures d'un éboulis et son absence dans les parties supérieures. Enfin, l'analyse de la structure des éboulis périglaciaires de haute altitude a permis de montrer que la stratigraphie du pergélisol peut être un élément important pour l'interprétation de la signification paléoclimatique de ce type de formes. Pour le deuxième volet de la recherche, grâce aux datations relatives effectuées à l'aide de l'utilisation conjointe de la méthode paléogéographique et du marteau de Schmidt, il a été possible de définir la chrono-stratigraphie du retrait glaciaire et du développement des glaciers rocheux et des versants d'éboulis des quatre régions des Alpes suisses étudiées (régions du Mont Gelé - Mont Fort, des Fontanesses et de Chamosentse, dans les Alpes Valaisannes, et Massif de la Cima di Gana Bianca, dans les Alpes Tessinoises). La compilation de toutes les datations effectuées a permis de montrer que la plupart des glaciers rocheux actifs étudiés se seraient développés soit juste avant et/ou pendant l'Optimum Climatique Holocène de 9.5-6.3 ka cal BP, soit au plus tard juste après cet évènement climatique majeur du dernier interglaciaire. Parmi les glaciers rocheux fossiles datés, la plupart aurait commencé à se former dans la deuxième moitié du Tardiglaciaire et se serait inactivé dans la première partie de l'Optimum Climatique Holocène. Pour les éboulis étudiés, les datations effectuées ont permis d'observer que leur surface date de la période entre le Boréal et l'Atlantique récent, indiquant que les taux d'éboulisation après la fin de l'Optimum Climatique Holocène ont dû être faibles, et que l'intervalle entre l'âge maximal et l'âge minimal est dans la plupart des cas relativement court (4-6 millénaires), indiquant que les taux d'éboulisation durant la période de formation des éboulis ont dû être importants. Grâce au calcul des taux d'érosion des parois rocheuses sur la base du volume de matériaux rocheux pour quatre des éboulis étudiés, il a été possible mettre en évidence l'existence d'une « éboulisation parapériglaciaire » liée à la dégradation du pergélisol dans les parois rocheuses, fonctionnant principalement durant les périodes de réchauffement climatique rapide comme cela a été le cas au début du Bølling, du Préboréal à la fin de l'Atlantique récent et, peut-être, à partir des années 1980. - In the context of a warmer climate, a « geosystemical » study of the permafrost distribution in a whole alpine periglacial hillslope, from the rockwall to the rockglacier, is of great importance. With respect to this problem, the general objective of this PhD thesis is the global study of talus slopes located within the alpine periglacial belt following two different research axes: the analysis of the internal structure and of the permafrost distribution of high altitude talus slopes and of the related processes; the reconstruction of the palaeoenvironmental history of the alpine periglacial belt during the Lateglacial and the Holocene. The stratigraphy and the permafrost distribution were studied in five talus slopes of the Valais Alps (Switzerland) with the analysis of borehole data (on three of the five talus slopes) and other methods of permafrost prospecting: Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Refraction Seismic Tomography (RST) and nuclear well logging. The collected data shows that, in all of the studied talus slopes, permafrost distribution is discontinuous and that neither of the hillslopes is integrally characterised by permafrost. In particular, this data proves by direct investigations that, in talus slopes, permafrost is present in the lower parts of the hillslope, whereas it is absent in the upper parts. Permafrost distribution in alpine talus slopes is depending of the combination of almost three controlling factors, whose respective importance is variable: the chimney effect, the increase of grain size downslope and the redistribution of snow by avalanches. Depending on the size of the talus and on topographical and geomorphological heterogeneities, various cases are possible: one dominant controlling factor or the combination of various factors. Nevertheless, it would be an error to consider each controlling factor independently, without considering their relationships. Between these controlling factors, the relationship chimney effect/grain size seems to be the most important factor controlling the presence of permafrost in the lowest part of periglacial talus slopes, and its absence in the upper parts. Finally, the analysis of the talus structure shows that the permafrost stratigraphy may be an important element of interpretation of the palaeoclimatic significance of an alpine talus slope. The second research axe focused on the establishment of a chronology of the Lateglacial glacier retreat and the dating of rockglaciers and talus slopes development in four studied regions of the Swiss Alps (Mont Gelé - Mont Fort, Fontanesses and Chamosentse regions, in the Valais Alps, and the Cima di Gana Bianca Massif, in the Ticino Alps). The compilation of the dates acquired through the combination of the palaeogeographical method and of the Schmidt hammer indicates that most of the investigated active rockglaciers started to evolve during the early phases of the Holocene or, at the latest, after the early-to-mid Holocene Climatic Optimum (ending around 6.3 ka cal BP). For the dated relict rockglaciers, most of them started to evolve in the second half of the Lateglacial, and probably became inactive at the beginning of the Holocene Climatic Optimum. For the investigated talus slopes, the relative dating carried out allowed to show that their surface date from the period included between the Boreal and the end of the Atlantic, pointing out that the rockwall retreat after the end of the Holocene Climatic Optimum was weak, and that the interval between maximal and minimal ages is in most cases relatively short (4-6 millennia). Therefore, the rockwall retreat during the development period of the talus slopes must has been considerable. Thanks to the calculation of rockwall erosion rates based on the volume of talus accumulations for four of the investigated hillslopes, it was possible to find evidences of the existence of "paraperiglacial rockfall phases" related to the permafrost degradation in rockwalls. These phases coincide with rapid climate warming periods, as at the beginning of the Bølling, during the Preboreal or, maybe, since 1980.
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Selostus: Kevätvehnän ja nurminadan fotosynteesi ja Rubisco-kinetiikka simuloidun ilmastonmuutoksen eli kohotetun hiilidioksidipitoisuuden ja kohotetun lämpötilan oloissa
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The late Early Cretaceous greenhouse climate has been studied intensively based on proxy data derived essentially from open marine archives. In contrast, information on continental climatic conditions and on the accompanying response of vegetation is relatively scarce, most notably owing to the stratigraphic uncertainties associated with many Lower Cretaceous terrestrial deposits. Here, we present a palynological record from Albian near-shore deposits of the Lusitanian Basin of W Portugal, which have been independently dated using Sr-isotope signals derived from low-Mg oyster shell calcite. Sr-87/Sr-86 values fluctuate between 0.707373 +/- 0.00002 and 0.707456 +/- 0.00003; absolute values and the overall stratigraphic trend match well with the global open marine seawater signature during Albian times. Based on the new Sr-isotope data, existing biostratigraphic assignments of the succession are corroborated and partly revised. Spore-pollen data provide information on the vegetation community structure and are flanked by sedimentological and clay mineralogical data used to infer the overall climatic conditions prevailing on the adjacent continent. Variations in the distribution of climate-sensitive pollen and spores indicate distinct changes in moisture availability across the studied succession with a pronounced increase in hygrophilous spores in late Early Albian times. Comparison with time-equivalent palynofloras from the Algarve Basin of southern Portugal shows pronounced differences in the xerophyte/hygrophyte ratio, interpreted to reflect the effect of a broad arid climate belt covering southern and southeastern Iberia during Early Albian times.
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Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.
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In recent years, it has become apparent that the design and maintenance of pavement drainage extends the service life of pavements. Most pavement structures now incorporate subsurface layers. Part of the function of these subsurface layers is to drain away excess water, which can be extremely deleterious to the life of the pavement. To assure the effectiveness of such drainage layers after they have been spread and compacted, simple, rapid, in-situ permeability and stability testing and end-result specification are needed. This report includes conclusions and recommendations related to four main study objectives: (1) Determine the optimal range for in-place stability and in-place permeability based on Iowa aggregate sources; (2) Evaluate the feasibility of an air permeameter for determining the permeability of open and well-graded drainage layers in situ; (3) Develop reliable end-result quality control/quality assurance specifications for stability and permeability; and (4) Refine aggregate placement and construction methods to optimize uniformity.
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Highway maintenance engineers and administrators are often confronted with a number of problems related to highway maintenance work programs. One of these problems is concerned with determining the optimum number and locations of highway maintenance garages in a given area. Serious decline in highway revenues and a high inflation rate have made it necessary to examine existing maintenance practices and to allocate reduced financial resources more effectively and efficiently. Searching for and providing of reasonable solutions to these problems is the focus of this research project. The methodology used is to identify and modify for use (if necessary) those models which have already been developed. Models which could give optimum number and locations of highway maintenance garages were found to be too theoretical and/or practically infeasible. Consequently, research focus was shifted from these models to other models that could compare alternatives and select the best among these alternatives. Three such models -- the Alabama model, California model, and Louisiana model, were identified and studied.
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Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts
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Winter weather has a strong influence on Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology. Here, we analyzed the impacts of weather conditions on reproductive performance during the breeding season using data collected over 22 years in a Swiss Barn Owl population. Variations in rain and temperature during the breeding season played an important role in within-year variation in Barn Owl reproduction. An increase in rainfall during the period from 4 to 2 weeks preceding egg laying had a positive effect on clutch size. In contrast, fledgling body mass was negatively influenced by rainfall during the 24 h preceding the measurements. Finally, ambient temperature during the rearing period was positively associated with brood size at fledging. In conclusion, weather conditions during the breeding season place constraints on Barn Owl reproduction.
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The objective of this study was to determine the effects of rainfall, temperature, sunlight and relative humidity, as well as predators and parasitoids, leaf chemical composition and levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium on the intensity of Scirtothrips manihoti (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) attack on cassava Manihot esculenta Crantz var. Cacau. The leaf compounds (E)-farnesene/trans-farnesol and D-friedoolean-14-en-3-one correlated significantly with the population of S. manihoti. Insect population decreased in the dry and cold season probably due to leaf senescence. Significative correlation was observed between Syrphidae with S. manihoti populations.
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Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.
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Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years
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Blowing and drifting of snow is a major concern for transportation efficiency and road safety in regions where their development is common. One common way to mitigate snow drift on roadways is to install plastic snow fences. Correct design of snow fences is critical for road safety and maintaining the roads open during winter in the US Midwest and other states affected by large snow events during the winter season and to maintain costs related to accumulation of snow on the roads and repair of roads to minimum levels. Of critical importance for road safety is the protection against snow drifting in regions with narrow rights of way, where standard fences cannot be deployed at the recommended distance from the road. Designing snow fences requires sound engineering judgment and a thorough evaluation of the potential for snow blowing and drifting at the construction site. The evaluation includes site-specific design parameters typically obtained with semi-empirical relations characterizing the local transport conditions. Among the critical parameters involved in fence design and assessment of their post-construction efficiency is the quantification of the snow accumulation at fence sites. The present study proposes a joint experimental and numerical approach to monitor snow deposits around snow fences, quantitatively estimate snow deposits in the field, asses the efficiency and improve the design of snow fences. Snow deposit profiles were mapped using GPS based real-time kinematic surveys (RTK) conducted at the monitored field site during and after snow storms. The monitored site allowed testing different snow fence designs under close to identical conditions over four winter seasons. The study also discusses the detailed monitoring system and analysis of weather forecast and meteorological conditions at the monitored sites. A main goal of the present study was to assess the performance of lightweight plastic snow fences with a lower porosity than the typical 50% porosity used in standard designs of such fences. The field data collected during the first winter was used to identify the best design for snow fences with a porosity of 50%. Flow fields obtained from numerical simulations showed that the fence design that worked the best during the first winter induced the formation of an elongated area of small velocity magnitude close to the ground. This information was used to identify other candidates for optimum design of fences with a lower porosity. Two of the designs with a fence porosity of 30% that were found to perform well based on results of numerical simulations were tested in the field during the second winter along with the best performing design for fences with a porosity of 50%. Field data showed that the length of the snow deposit away from the fence was reduced by about 30% for the two proposed lower-porosity (30%) fence designs compared to the best design identified for fences with a porosity of 50%. Moreover, one of the lower-porosity designs tested in the field showed no significant snow deposition within the bottom gap region beneath the fence. Thus, a major outcome of this study is to recommend using plastic snow fences with a porosity of 30%. It is expected that this lower-porosity design will continue to work well for even more severe snow events or for successive snow events occurring during the same winter. The approach advocated in the present study allowed making general recommendations for optimizing the design of lower-porosity plastic snow fences. This approach can be extended to improve the design of other types of snow fences. Some preliminary work for living snow fences is also discussed. Another major contribution of this study is to propose, develop protocols and test a novel technique based on close range photogrammetry (CRP) to quantify the snow deposits trapped snow fences. As image data can be acquired continuously, the time evolution of the volume of snow retained by a snow fence during a storm or during a whole winter season can, in principle, be obtained. Moreover, CRP is a non-intrusive method that eliminates the need to perform man-made measurements during the storms, which are difficult and sometimes dangerous to perform. Presently, there is lots of empiricism in the design of snow fences due to lack of data on fence storage capacity on how snow deposits change with the fence design and snow storm characteristics and in the estimation of the main parameters used by the state DOTs to design snow fences at a given site. The availability of such information from CRP measurements should provide critical data for the evaluation of the performance of a certain snow fence design that is tested by the IDOT. As part of the present study, the novel CRP method is tested at several sites. The present study also discusses some attempts and preliminary work to determine the snow relocation coefficient which is one of the main variables that has to be estimated by IDOT engineers when using the standard snow fence design software (Snow Drift Profiler, Tabler, 2006). Our analysis showed that standard empirical formulas did not produce reasonable values when applied at the Iowa test sites monitored as part of the present study and that simple methods to estimate this variable are not reliable. The present study makes recommendations for the development of a new methodology based on Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry that can directly measure the snow drift fluxes and the amount of snow relocated by the fence.