The out-of-sample performance of stochastic methods in forecasting age-specific mortality rates /

"July 2008."

From Shakespeare to Pope; an inquiry into the causes and phenomena of the rise of classical poetry in England.

Mode of access: Internet.

The frontier of loyalty : political exiles in the age of the nation-state /

Originally presented as the author's thesis (Ph. D.)--Yale.

Travel behaviour change in old age : the role of critical incidents in public transport

Older people’s travel behaviour is affected by negative or positive critical incidents in the public transport environment. With the objective of identifying such inci- dents during whole trips and examining how travel beha- viour had changed, we have conducted in-depth interviews with 30 participants aged 65–91 years in the County of Stockholm, Sweden. Out of 469 incidents identified, 77 were reported to have resulted in travel behaviour change, 67 of them in a negative way. Most critical incidents were encountered in the physical environment on-board vehicles and at stations/stops as well as in pricing/ticketing. The findings show that more personal assistance, better driving behaviour, and swift maintenance of elevators and escala- tors are key facilitators that would improve predictability in travelling and enhance vulnerable older travellers’ feeling of security. The results demonstrate the benefit of involving different groups of end users in future planning and design, such that transport systems would meet the various needs of its end users.

The End of Everest? Reimagining Himalayan Adventure Travel in an Age of Unnatural Disasters

Himalayan adventure travel is a burgeoning industry in some mountainous regions of Nepal, India, and the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People‘s Republic of China. The development of a trekking and expedition mountaineering infrastructure has created economic opportunities in remote areas and allowed foreign visitors to embark on life-changing explorations. However, with the industry’s rapid, uneven, and largely unregulated growth have come environmental and resource challenges, the creation of new economic and social arrangements, and renewed questions of equity and safety. The current Himalayan adventure travel paradigm is unsustainable, and I argue that only a profound reimagining of sociopolitical relationships—those between the state, local and global civil society actors, and adventure travel practitioners and participants—will allow it to continue. A series of recent disasters in the mountains may serve as the necessary catalyst for previously underrepresented stakeholders to translate their growing assertiveness into meaningful and durable solutions.

Traffic control: p120-catenin acts as a gatekeeper to control the fate of classical cadherins in mammalian cells

Proteins of the p120 family have been implicated in the regulation of cadherin-based cell adhesion, but their relative importance in this process and their mechanism of action have remained less clear. Three papers in this issue suggest that p120 plays a key role in maintaining normal levels of cadherin in mammalian cells, and that it may do so by regulating cadherin trafficking.

Herpesvirus-specific CD8 T cell immunity in old age: Cytomegalovirus impairs the response to a coresident EBV infection

Aging in humans is associated with increased infections and the reduced proliferative capacity of T cells, part of the more global phenomenon termed immune senescence. The etiology of immune senescence is unknown but the accumulation of virus-specific memory T cells may be a contributory factor. We have examined CD8 T cell responses to two persistent herpesvirus infections, CMV and EBV, and to a recurrent virus infection, influenza, in different age cohorts of healthy donors using HLA-peptide tetramers and intracellular cytokine detection. Of these, CMV appears to be the most immunogenic, with the CD8 T cell response representing over 10% of the CD8 pool in many elderly donors. Interestingly, the effect of age upon EBV-specific responses depends upon donor CMV sero-status. In CMV seropositive donors, the magnitude of the EBV-specific immune response is stable with age, but in CMV seronegative donors, the response to EBV increases significantly with age. By contrast, the influenza-specific CD8 T cell immune response decreases with age, independent of CMV status. The functional activity of the herpesvirus-specific immune response decreases in elderly donors, although the characteristic phenotypes of CMV- and EBV-specific memory populations are retained. This demonstrates that aging is associated with a marked accumulation of CMV-specific CD8 T cells together with a decrease in immediate effector function. Moreover, infection with CMV can reduce prevailing levels of immunity to EBV, another persistent virus. These results suggest that carriage of CMV may be detrimental to the immunocompetent host by suppressing heterologous virus-specific immunity during aging.

Graphic satire and public life in the age of terror

This paper investigates media representations of international insecurity through a selection of newspaper cartoons from some of the major daily Australian broadsheets. Since 2001, cartoonists such as Bruce Petty, John Spooner and Bill Leak (in The Age and The Australian) have provided an ongoing and vehement critique of the Australian government’s policies of ‘border protection’, the ‘war on terror’ and the words of mass distraction associated with Australia joining the war in Iraq. Cartoonists are often said to represent the ‘citizen’s perspective’ of public life through their graphic satire on the editorial pages of our daily newspapers. Increasingly, they can also be seen to be fulfilling the role of public intellectuals, defined by Richard A. Posner as ‘someone whose place it is publicly to raise embarrassing questions, to confront orthodoxy and dogma, to be someone who cannot easily be co-opted by governments and corporations’. Cartoonists enjoy an independence and freedom from censorship that is rarely extended to their journalistic colleagues in the print media and it is this independence that is the vital component in their being categorised as public intellectuals. Their role is to ‘question over and over again what is postulated as self-evident, to disturb people’s mental habits, to dissipate what is familiar and accepted, to re-examine rules and institutions’ (Posner, 2003: 31). With this useful — if generalised — definition in mind, the paper considers how cartoonists have contributed to debates concerning international insecurity in public life since 2001.

A comparison of the association between socioeconomic position and cardiovascular disease risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objectives To assess the associations between three measurements of socioeconomic position (SEP) - education, occupation and ability to cope on available income - and cardiovascular risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of three cohorts of Australian women aged 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 years. Results In general, for all exposures and in all three cohorts, the odds of each adverse risk factor (smoking, obesity and physical inactivity) were lower in the most advantaged compared with the least advantaged. Within each of the three cohorts, the effects of each measurement of SEP on the outcomes were similar. There were, however, some notable between-cohort differences. The most marked differences were those with smoking. For women aged 70-75 (older), those with the highest educational attainment were more likely to have ever smoked than those with the lowest level of attainment. However, for the other two cohorts, this association was reversed, with a stronger association between low levels of education and ever smoking among those aged 18-23 (younger) than those aged 45-50 (mid-age). Similarly, for older women, those in the most skilled occupational classes were most likely to have ever smoked, with opposite findings for mid-age women. Education was also differently associated with physical inactivity across the three cohorts. Older women who were most educated were least likely to be physically inactive, whereas among the younger and mid-age cohorts there was little or no effect of education on physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between SEP and some health outcomes. Our findings do not appear to confirm previous suggestions that prestige-based measurements of SEP are more strongly associated with health-related behaviours than measurements that reflect material and psychosocial resources.

Never-married childless women in Australia: Health and social circumstances in older age

A growing proportion of women reach older age without having married or having children. Assumptions that these older women are lonely, impoverished, and high users of social and health services are based on little evidence. This paper uses data from the Older cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health to describe self-reported demographics, physical and emotional health, and use of services among 10,108 women aged 73-78, of whom 2.7% are never-married and childless. The most striking characteristic of this group is their high levels of education, which are associated with fewer reported financial difficulties and higher rates of private health insurance. There are few differences in self-reported physical or emotional health or use of health services between these and other groups of older women. Compared with older married women with children, they make higher use of formal services such as home maintenance and meal services, and are also more likely to provide volunteer services and belong to social groups. Overall, there is no evidence to suggest that these women are a problem group. Rather, it seems that their life experiences and opportunities prepare them for a successful and productive older age. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treatment of falciparum malaria in the age of drug-resistance

The growing problem of drug resistance has greatly complicated the treatment for falciparum malaria. Whereaschloroquine and sulfadoxine/ pyrimethamine could once cure most infections, this is no longer true and requiresexamination of alternative regimens. Not all treatment failures are drug resistant and other issues such asexpired antimalarials and patient compliance need to be considered. Continuation of a failing treatment policyafter drug resistance is established suppresses infections rather than curing them, leading to increasedtransmission of malaria, promotion of epidemics and loss of public confidence in malaria control programs.Antifolate drug resistance (i.e. pyrimethamine) means that new combinations are urgently needed particularlybecause addition of a single drug to an already failing regimen is rarely effective for very long. Atovaquone/proguanil and mefloquine have been used against multiple drug resistant falciparum malaria with resistance toeach having been documented soon after drug introduction. Drug combinations delay further transmission ofresistant parasites by increasing cure rates and inhibiting formation of gametocytes. Most currentlyrecommended drug combinations for falciparum malaria are variants of artemisinin combination therapy wherea rapidly acting artemisinin compound is combined with a longer half-life drug of a different class. Artemisininsused include dihydroartemisinin, artesunate, artemether and companion drugs include mefloquine, amodiaquine,sulfadoxine/ pyrimethamine, lumefantrine, piperaquine, pyronaridine, chlorproguanil/dapsone. The standard ofcare must be to cure malaria by killing the last parasite. Combination antimalarial treatment is vital not only tothe successful treatment of individual patients but also for public health control of malaria.