Renal microvascular assembly and repair: power and promise of molecular definition.

Developmental assembly of the renal microcirculation is a precise and coordinated process now accessible to experimental scrutiny. Although definition of the cellular and molecular determinants is incomplete, recent findings have reframed concepts and questions about the origins of vascular cells in the glomerulus and the molecules that direct cell recruitment, specialization and morphogenesis. New findings illustrate principles that may be applied to defining critical steps in microvascular repair following glomerular injury. Developmental assembly of endothelial, mesangial and epithelial cells into glomerular capillaries requires that a coordinated, temporally defined series of steps occur in an anatomically ordered sequence. Recent evidence shows that both vasculogenic and angiogenic processes participate. Local signals direct cell migration, proliferation, differentiation, cell-cell recognition, formation of intercellular connections, and morphogenesis. Growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases on vascular cells are important mediators of many of these events. Cultured cell systems have suggested that basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) promote endothelial cell proliferation, migration or morphogenesis, while genetic deletion experiments have defined an important role for PDGF beta receptors and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) B in glomerular development. Receptor tyrosine kinases that convey non-proliferative signals also contribute in kidney and other sites. The EphB1 receptor, one of a diverse class of Eph receptors implicated in neural cell targeting, directs renal endothelial migration, cell-cell recognition and assembly, and is expressed with its ligand in developing glomeruli. Endothelial TIE2 receptors bind angiopoietins (1 and 2), the products of adjacent supportive cells, to signals direct capillary maturation in a sequence that defines cooperative roles for cells of different lineages. Ultimately, definition of the cellular steps and molecular sequence that direct microvascular cell assembly promises to identify therapeutic targets for repair and adaptive remodeling of injured glomeruli.

Bank Performance: Market Power or Efficient Structure?

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s, culminating with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Significant consolidations have occurred in the banking industry. This paper considers the market-power versus the efficient-structure theories of the positive correlation between banking concentration and performance on a state-by-state basis. Temporal causality tests imply that bank concentration leads bank profitability, supporting the market-power, rather than the efficient-structure, theory of that positive correlation. Our finding suggests that bank regulators, by focusing on local banking markets, missed the initial stages of an important structural change at the state level.

Assessing the improved discriminatory power of a new biomarker in prognostic models

Although the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) is the most popular measure of the performance of prediction models, it has limitations, especially when it is used to evaluate the added discrimination of a new biomarker in the model. Pencina et al. (2008) proposed two indices, the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), to supplement the improvement in the AUC (IAUC). Their NRI and IDI are based on binary outcomes in case-control settings, which do not involve time-to-event outcome. However, many disease outcomes are time-dependent and the onset time can be censored. Measuring discrimination potential of a prognostic marker without considering time to event can lead to biased estimates. In this dissertation, we have extended the NRI and IDI to survival analysis settings and derived the corresponding sample estimators and asymptotic tests. Simulation studies were conducted to compare the performance of the time-dependent NRI and IDI with Pencina’s NRI and IDI. For illustration, we have applied the proposed method to a breast cancer study.^ Key words: Prognostic model, Discrimination, Time-dependent NRI and IDI ^

A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE SIZE AND POWER OF SOME TWO-SAMPLE TESTS FOR UNEQUALLY CENSORED SURVIVAL DATA (RANK TESTS, LOGRANK, PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS, WILCOXON TESTS, EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)

Sizes and power of selected two-sample tests of the equality of survival distributions are compared by simulation for small samples from unequally, randomly-censored exponential distributions. The tests investigated include parametric tests (F, Score, Likelihood, Asymptotic), logrank tests (Mantel, Peto-Peto), and Wilcoxon-Type tests (Gehan, Prentice). Equal sized samples, n = 18, 16, 32 with 1000 (size) and 500 (power) simulation trials, are compared for 16 combinations of the censoring proportions 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60%. For n = 8 and 16, the Asymptotic, Peto-Peto, and Wilcoxon tests perform at nominal 5% size expectations, but the F, Score and Mantel tests exceeded 5% size confidence limits for 1/3 of the censoring combinations. For n = 32, all tests showed proper size, with the Peto-Peto test most conservative in the presence of unequal censoring. Powers of all tests are compared for exponential hazard ratios of 1.4 and 2.0. There is little difference in power characteristics of the tests within the classes of tests considered. The Mantel test showed 90% to 95% power efficiency relative to parametric tests. Wilcoxon-type tests have the lowest relative power but are robust to differential censoring patterns. A modified Peto-Peto test shows power comparable to the Mantel test. For n = 32, a specific Weibull-exponential comparison of crossing survival curves suggests that the relative powers of logrank and Wilcoxon-type tests are dependent on the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. Wilcoxon-type tests appear more powerful than logrank tests in the case of late-crossing and less powerful for early-crossing survival curves. Guidelines for the appropriate selection of two-sample tests are given. ^

Villas y aldeas en el Antiguo Régimen : Conflicto y consenso en el marco local castellano

Las villas y aldeas de Castilla recorrieron juntas un largo y difícil camino desde los siglos medievales, cuando se fueron conformando como cuerpos políticos, basados en servicios recíprocos que aspiraban a alcanzar el bien común del conjunto. La naturaleza jerárquicamente desigual de dicho cuerpo fue acentuándose y las cabezas jurisdiccionales llevaron a la práctica unas relaciones de dominio cada vez más acusado frente a las aldeas. En estas comunidades rurales, linajes en ascenso aspiraban, no obstante, a ampliar sus propias cotas de autogobierno. La armonía que debía presidir el cuerpo común de villas y aldeas fue desapareciendo, y la política regia de ventas de villazgos con fines hacendísticos, iniciada por Carlos V, respondió a una demanda de segregación que solucionaba al mismo tiempo las aspiraciones jurisdiccionales de las comunidades rurales y de sus nuevas oligarquías así como las necesidades de ingresos extraordinarios de la real hacienda

Case studies of the effects of a total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather prediction model

The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

Villas y aldeas en el Antiguo Régimen : Conflicto y consenso en el marco local castellano

Las villas y aldeas de Castilla recorrieron juntas un largo y difícil camino desde los siglos medievales, cuando se fueron conformando como cuerpos políticos, basados en servicios recíprocos que aspiraban a alcanzar el bien común del conjunto. La naturaleza jerárquicamente desigual de dicho cuerpo fue acentuándose y las cabezas jurisdiccionales llevaron a la práctica unas relaciones de dominio cada vez más acusado frente a las aldeas. En estas comunidades rurales, linajes en ascenso aspiraban, no obstante, a ampliar sus propias cotas de autogobierno. La armonía que debía presidir el cuerpo común de villas y aldeas fue desapareciendo, y la política regia de ventas de villazgos con fines hacendísticos, iniciada por Carlos V, respondió a una demanda de segregación que solucionaba al mismo tiempo las aspiraciones jurisdiccionales de las comunidades rurales y de sus nuevas oligarquías así como las necesidades de ingresos extraordinarios de la real hacienda

Villas y aldeas en el Antiguo Régimen : Conflicto y consenso en el marco local castellano

Las villas y aldeas de Castilla recorrieron juntas un largo y difícil camino desde los siglos medievales, cuando se fueron conformando como cuerpos políticos, basados en servicios recíprocos que aspiraban a alcanzar el bien común del conjunto. La naturaleza jerárquicamente desigual de dicho cuerpo fue acentuándose y las cabezas jurisdiccionales llevaron a la práctica unas relaciones de dominio cada vez más acusado frente a las aldeas. En estas comunidades rurales, linajes en ascenso aspiraban, no obstante, a ampliar sus propias cotas de autogobierno. La armonía que debía presidir el cuerpo común de villas y aldeas fue desapareciendo, y la política regia de ventas de villazgos con fines hacendísticos, iniciada por Carlos V, respondió a una demanda de segregación que solucionaba al mismo tiempo las aspiraciones jurisdiccionales de las comunidades rurales y de sus nuevas oligarquías así como las necesidades de ingresos extraordinarios de la real hacienda

Experience with PV-diesel hybrid village power systems in southern Morocco

In October 2002, under the auspices of Spanish Cooperation, a pilot electrification project put into operation two centralised PV-diesel hybrid systems in two different Moroccan villages. These systems currently provide a full-time energy service and supply electricity to more than a hundred of families, six community buildings, street lighting and one running water system. The appearance of the electricity service is very similar to an urban one: one phase AC supply (230V/50Hz) distributed up to each dwelling using a low-voltage mini-grid, which has been designed to be fully compatible with a future arrival of the utility grid. The management of this electricity service is based on a “fee-for-service” scheme agreed between a local NGO, partner of the project, and electricity associations created in each village, which are in charge of, among other tasks, recording the daily energy production of systems and the monthly energy consumption of each house. This register of data allows a systematic evaluation of both the system performance and the energy consumption of users. Now, after four years of operation, this paper presents the experience of this pilot electrification project and draws lessons that can be useful for designing, managing and sizing this type of small village PV-hybrid system

Efficient local unfolding with ancestor stacks

The most successful unfolding rules used nowadays in the partial evaluation of logic programs are based on well quasi orders (wqo) applied over (covering) ancestors, i.e., a subsequence of the atoms selected during a derivation. Ancestor (sub)sequences are used to increase the specialization power of unfolding while still guaranteeing termination and also to reduce the number of atoms for which the wqo has to be checked. Unfortunately, maintaining the structure of the ancestor relation during unfolding introduces significant overhead. We propose an efficient, practical local unfolding rule based on the notion of covering ancestors which can be used in combination with a wqo and allows a stack-based implementation without losing any opportunities for specialization. Using our technique, certain non-leftmost unfoldings are allowed as long as local unfolding is performed, i.e., we cover depth-first strategies. To deal with practical programs, we propose assertion-based techniques which allow our approach to treat programs that include (Prolog) built-ins and external predicates in a very extensible manner, for the case of leftmost unfolding. Finally, we report on our mplementation of these techniques embedded in a practical partial evaluator, which shows that our techniques, in addition to dealing with practical programs, are also significantly more efficient in time and somewhat more efficient in memory than traditional tree-based implementations. To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Dry cooling with night cool storage to enhance solar power plants performance in extreme conditions areas

Solar thermal power plants are usually installed in locations with high yearly average solar radiation, often deserts. In such conditions, cooling water required for thermodynamic cycles is rarely available. Moreover, when solar radiation is high, ambient temperature is very high as well; this leads to excessive condensation temperature, especially when air-condensers are used, and decreases the plant efficiency. However, temperature variation in deserts is often very high, which drives to relatively low temperatures during the night. This fact can be exploited with the use of a closed cooling system, so that the coolant (water) is chilled during the night and store. Chilled water is then used during peak temperature hours to cool the condenser (dry cooling), thus enhancing power output and efficiency. The present work analyzes the performance improvement achieved by night thermal cool storage, compared to its equivalent air cooled power plant. Dry cooling is proved to be energy-effective for moderately high day–night temperature differences (20 °C), often found in desert locations. The storage volume requirement for different power plant efficiencies has also been studied, resulting on an asymptotic tendency.

Exact solution for the conjugate fluid-fluid problem in the thermal entrance region of laminar counterflow heat exchangers

A generalized Lévêque solution is presented for the conjugate fluid–fluid problem that arises in the thermal entrance region of laminar counterflow heat exchangers. The analysis, carried out for constant property fluids, assumes that the Prandtl and Peclet numbers are both large compared to unity, and neglects axial conduction both in the fluids and in the plate, assumed to be thermally thin. Under these conditions, the thermal entrance region admits an asymptotic self-similar description where the temperature varies as a power ϳ of the axial distance, with the particularity that the self-similarity exponent must be determined as an eigenvalue by solving a transcendental equation arising from the requirement of continuity of heat fluxes at the heat conducting wall. Specifically, the analysis reveals that j depends only on the lumped parameter ƙ = (A2/A1)1/3 (α1/α2)1/3(k2/k1), defined in terms of the ratios of the wall velocity gradients, A, thermal diffusivities, α i, and thermal conductivities,k i, of the fluids entering, 1, and exiting, 2, the heat exchanger. Moreover, it is shown that for large (small) values of K solution reduces to the classical first (second) Lévêque solution. Closed-form analytical expressions for the asymptotic temperature distributions and local heat-transfer rate in the thermal entrance region are given and compared with numerical results in the counterflow parallel-plate configuration, showing very good agreement in all cases.

Asymptotic stability of a mathematical model of cell population

We consider a simplified system of a growing colony of cells described as a free boundary problem. The system consists of two hyperbolic equations of first order coupled to an ODE to describe the behavior of the boundary. The system for cell populations includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. By introducing a comparison with solutions of an ODE's system, we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is globally asymptotically stable for a range of parameters under the assumption of radially symmetric initial data.

3D simulation of complex shading affecting PV systems taking benefit from the power of graphics cards developed for the video game industry

Shading reduces the power output of a photovoltaic (PV) system. The design engineering of PV systems requires modeling and evaluating shading losses. Some PV systems are affected by complex shading scenes whose resulting PV energy losses are very difficult to evaluate with current modeling tools. Several specialized PV design and simulation software include the possibility to evaluate shading losses. They generally possess a Graphical User Interface (GUI) through which the user can draw a 3D shading scene, and then evaluate its corresponding PV energy losses. The complexity of the objects that these tools can handle is relatively limited. We have created a software solution, 3DPV, which allows evaluating the energy losses induced by complex 3D scenes on PV generators. The 3D objects can be imported from specialized 3D modeling software or from a 3D object library. The shadows cast by this 3D scene on the PV generator are then directly evaluated from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). Thanks to the recent development of GPUs for the video game industry, the shadows can be evaluated with a very high spatial resolution that reaches well beyond the PV cell level, in very short calculation times. A PV simulation model then translates the geometrical shading into PV energy output losses. 3DPV has been implemented using WebGL, which allows it to run directly from a Web browser, without requiring any local installation from the user. This also allows taken full benefits from the information already available from Internet, such as the 3D object libraries. This contribution describes, step by step, the method that allows 3DPV to evaluate the PV energy losses caused by complex shading. We then illustrate the results of this methodology to several application cases that are encountered in the world of PV systems design. Keywords: 3D, modeling, simulation, GPU, shading, losses, shadow mapping, solar, photovoltaic, PV, WebGL