Public sector investment appraisal:the place of flexibility in the decision making process

This thesis reviews the main methodological developments in public sector investment appraisal and finds growing evidence that appraisal techniques are not fulfilling their earlier promise. It is suggested that an important reason for this failure lies in the inability of these techniques to handle uncertainty except in a highly circumscribed fashion. It is argued that a more fruitful approach is to strive for flexibility. Investment projects should be formulated with a view to making them responsive to a wide range of possible future events, rather than embodying a solution which is optimal for one configuration of circumstances only. The distinction drawn in economics between the short and the long run is used to examine the nature of flexibility. The concept of long run flexibility is applied to the pre-investment range of choice open to the decisionmaker. It is demonstrated that flexibility is reduced at a very early stage of decisionmaking by the conventional system of appraisal which evaluates only a small number of options. The pre-appraisal filtering process is considered further in relation to decisionmaking models. It is argued that for public sector projects the narrowing down of options is best understood in relation to an amended mixed scanning model which places importance on the process by which the 'national interest ' is determined. Short run flexibility deals with operational characteristics, the degree to which particular projects may respond to changing demands when the basic investment is already in place. The tension between flexibility and cost is noted. A short case study on the choice of electricity generating plant is presented. The thesis concludes with a brief examination of the approaches used by successive British governments to public sector investment, particularly in relation to the nationalised industries

Potential for broad range multiplexing of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibres and operation in the 700-nm wavelength range

Refractive index and structural characteristics of optical polymers are strongly influenced by the thermal history of the material. Polymer optical fibres (POF) are drawn under tension, resulting in axial orientation of the polymer molecular chains due to their susceptibility to align in the fibre direction. This change in orientation from the drawing process results in residual strain in the fibre and also affects the transparency and birefringence of the material (1-3). PMMA POF has failure strain as high as over 100%. POF has to be drawn under low tension to achieve this value. The drawing tension affects the magnitude of molecular alignment along the fibre axis, thus affecting the failure strain. The higher the tension the lower the failure stain will be. However, the properties of fibre drawn under high tension can approach that of fibre drawn under low tension by means of an annealing process. Annealing the fibre can generally optimise the performance of POF while keeping most advantages intact. Annealing procedures can reduce index difference throughout the bulk and also reduce residual stress that may cause fracture or distortion. POF can be annealed at temperatures approaching the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer to produce FBG with a permanent blue Bragg wave-length shift at room temperature. At this elevated temperature segmental motion in the structure results in a lower viscosity. The material softens and the molecular chains relax from the axial orientation causing shrinking of the fibre. The large attenuation of typically 1dB/cm in the 1550nm spectral region of PMMA POF has limited FBG lengths to less than 10cm. The more expensive fluorinated polymers with lower absorption have had no success as FBG waveguides. Bragg grating have been inscribed onto various POF in the 800nm spectral region using a 30mW continuous wave 325nm helium cadmium laser, with a much reduced attenuation coefficient of 10dB/m (5). Fabricating multiplexed FBGs in the 800nm spectral region in TOPAS and PMMA POF consistently has lead to fabrication of multiplexed FBG in the 700nm spectral region by a method of prolonged annealing. The Bragg wavelength shift of gratings fabricated in PMMA fibre at 833nm and 867nm was monitored whilst the POF was thermally annealed at 80°C. Permanent shifts exceeding 80nm into the 700nm spectral region was attained by both gratings on the fibre. The large permanent shift creates the possibility of multiplexed Bragg sensors operating over a broad range. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Pellerin C, Prud'homme RE, Pézolet M. Effect of thermal history on the molecular orientation in polystyrene/poly (vinyl methyl ether) blends. Polymer. 2003;44(11):3291-7. 2. Dvoránek L, Machová L, Šorm M, Pelzbauer Z, Švantner J, Kubánek V. Effects of drawing conditions on the properties of optical fibers made from polystyrene and poly (methyl methacrylate). Die Angewandte Makromolekulare Chemie. 1990;174(1):25-39. 3. Dugas J, Pierrejean I, Farenc J, Peichot JP. Birefringence and internal stress in polystyrene optical fibers. Applied optics. 1994;33(16):3545-8. 4. Jiang C, Kuzyk MG, Ding JL, Johns WE, Welker DJ. Fabrication and mechanical behavior of dye-doped polymer optical fiber. Journal of applied physics. 2002;92(1):4-12. 5. Johnson IP, Webb DJ, Kalli K, Yuan W, Stefani A, Nielsen K, et al., editors. Polymer PCF Bragg grating sensors based on poly (methyl methacrylate) and TOPAS cyclic olefin copolymer2011: SPIE.

Investigation of formulation and process of lyophilised orally disintegrating tablet (ODT) using novel amino acid combination

Lyophilised orally disintegrating tablets (ODTs) have achieved a great success in overcoming dysphagia associated with conventional solid dosage forms. However, the extensive use of saccharides within the formulation limits their use in treatment of chronic illnesses. The current study demonstrates the feasibility of using combination of proline and serine to formulate zero sacharide ODTs and investigates the effect of freezing protocol on sublimation rate and tablets characteristics. The results showed that inclusion of proline and serine improved ODT properties when compared to individual counterparts. Additionally, annealing the ODTs facilitated the sublimation process and shortened the disintegration time. © 2010 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland.

Potential for broad range multiplexing of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibres and operation in the 700-nm wavelength range

Refractive index and structural characteristics of optical polymers are strongly influenced by the thermal history of the material. Polymer optical fibres (POF) are drawn under tension, resulting in axial orientation of the polymer molecular chains due to their susceptibility to align in the fibre direction. This change in orientation from the drawing process results in residual strain in the fibre and also affects the transparency and birefringence of the material (1-3). PMMA POF has failure strain as high as over 100%. POF has to be drawn under low tension to achieve this value. The drawing tension affects the magnitude of molecular alignment along the fibre axis, thus affecting the failure strain. The higher the tension the lower the failure stain will be. However, the properties of fibre drawn under high tension can approach that of fibre drawn under low tension by means of an annealing process. Annealing the fibre can generally optimise the performance of POF while keeping most advantages intact. Annealing procedures can reduce index difference throughout the bulk and also reduce residual stress that may cause fracture or distortion. POF can be annealed at temperatures approaching the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer to produce FBG with a permanent blue Bragg wave-length shift at room temperature. At this elevated temperature segmental motion in the structure results in a lower viscosity. The material softens and the molecular chains relax from the axial orientation causing shrinking of the fibre. The large attenuation of typically 1dB/cm in the 1550nm spectral region of PMMA POF has limited FBG lengths to less than 10cm. The more expensive fluorinated polymers with lower absorption have had no success as FBG waveguides. Bragg grating have been inscribed onto various POF in the 800nm spectral region using a 30mW continuous wave 325nm helium cadmium laser, with a much reduced attenuation coefficient of 10dB/m (5). Fabricating multiplexed FBGs in the 800nm spectral region in TOPAS and PMMA POF consistently has lead to fabrication of multiplexed FBG in the 700nm spectral region by a method of prolonged annealing. The Bragg wavelength shift of gratings fabricated in PMMA fibre at 833nm and 867nm was monitored whilst the POF was thermally annealed at 80°C. Permanent shifts exceeding 80nm into the 700nm spectral region was attained by both gratings on the fibre. The large permanent shift creates the possibility of multiplexed Bragg sensors operating over a broad range. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Pellerin C, Prud'homme RE, Pézolet M. Effect of thermal history on the molecular orientation in polystyrene/poly (vinyl methyl ether) blends. Polymer. 2003;44(11):3291-7. 2. Dvoránek L, Machová L, Šorm M, Pelzbauer Z, Švantner J, Kubánek V. Effects of drawing conditions on the properties of optical fibers made from polystyrene and poly (methyl methacrylate). Die Angewandte Makromolekulare Chemie. 1990;174(1):25-39. 3. Dugas J, Pierrejean I, Farenc J, Peichot JP. Birefringence and internal stress in polystyrene optical fibers. Applied optics. 1994;33(16):3545-8. 4. Jiang C, Kuzyk MG, Ding JL, Johns WE, Welker DJ. Fabrication and mechanical behavior of dye-doped polymer optical fiber. Journal of applied physics. 2002;92(1):4-12. 5. Johnson IP, Webb DJ, Kalli K, Yuan W, Stefani A, Nielsen K, et al., editors. Polymer PCF Bragg grating sensors based on poly (methyl methacrylate) and TOPAS cyclic olefin copolymer2011: SPIE.

An empirical examination of the strategic decision-making process:the relationship between context, process, and outcomes

Despite concerted academic interest in the strategic decision-making process (SDMP) since the 1980s, a coherent body of theory capable of guiding practice has not materialised. This is because many prior studies focus only on a single process characteristic, often rationality or comprehensiveness, and have paid insufficient attention to context. To further develop theory, research is required which examines: (i) the influence of context from multiple theoretical perspectives (e.g. upper echelons, environmental determinism); (ii) different process characteristics from both synoptic formal (e.g. rationality) and political incremental (e.g. politics) perspectives, and; (iii) the effects of context and process characteristics on a range of SDMP outcomes. Using data from 30 interviews and 357 questionnaires, this thesis addresses several opportunities for theory development by testing an integrative model which incorporates: (i) five SDMP characteristics representing both synoptic formal (procedural rationality, comprehensiveness, and behavioural integration) and political incremental (intuition, and political behaviour) perspectives; (ii) four SDMP outcome variables—strategic decision (SD) quality, implementation success, commitment, and SD speed, and; (iii) contextual variables from the four theoretical perspectives—upper echelons, SD-specific characteristics, environmental determinism, and firm characteristics. The present study makes several substantial and original contributions to knowledge. First, it provides empirical evidence of the contextual boundary conditions under which intuition and political behaviour positively influence SDMP outcomes. Second, it establishes the predominance of the upper echelons perspective; with TMT variables explaining significantly more variance in SDMP characteristics than SD specific characteristics, the external environment, and firm characteristics. A newly developed measure of top management team expertise also demonstrates highly significant direct and indirect effects on the SDMP. Finally, it is evident that SDMP characteristics and contextual variables influence a number of SDMP outcomes, not just overall SD quality, but also implementation success, commitment, and SD speed.

Modulation of long-range neural synchrony reflects temporal limitations of visual attention in humans

Because of attentional limitations, the human visual system can process for awareness and response only a fraction of the input received. Lesion and functional imaging studies have identified frontal, temporal, and parietal areas as playing a major role in the attentional control of visual processing, but very little is known about how these areas interact to form a dynamic attentional network. We hypothesized that the network communicates by means of neural phase synchronization, and we used magnetoencephalography to study transient long-range interarea phase coupling in a well studied attentionally taxing dual-target task (attentional blink). Our results reveal that communication within the fronto-parieto-temporal attentional network proceeds via transient long-range phase synchronization in the beta band. Changes in synchronization reflect changes in the attentional demands of the task and are directly related to behavioral performance. Thus, we show how attentional limitations arise from the way in which the subsystems of the attentional network interact. The human brain faces an inestimable task of reducing a potentially overloading amount of input into a manageable flow of information that reflects both the current needs of the organism and the external demands placed on it. This task is accomplished via a ubiquitous construct known as “attention,” whose mechanism, although well characterized behaviorally, is far from understood at the neurophysiological level. Whereas attempts to identify particular neural structures involved in the operation of attention have met with considerable success (1-5) and have resulted in the identification of frontal, parietal, and temporal regions, far less is known about the interaction among these structures in a way that can account for the task-dependent successes and failures of attention. The goal of the present research was, thus, to unravel the means by which the subsystems making up the human attentional network communicate and to relate the temporal dynamics of their communication to observed attentional limitations in humans. A prime candidate for communication among distributed systems in the human brain is neural synchronization (for review, see ref. 6). Indeed, a number of studies provide converging evidence that long-range interarea communication is related to synchronized oscillatory activity (refs. 7-14; for review, see ref. 15). To determine whether neural synchronization plays a role in attentional control, we placed humans in an attentionally demanding task and used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to track interarea communication by means of neural synchronization. In particular, we presented 10 healthy subjects with two visual target letters embedded in streams of 13 distractor letters, appearing at a rate of seven per second. The targets were separated in time by a single distractor. This condition leads to the “attentional blink” (AB), a well studied dual-task phenomenon showing the reduced ability to report the second of two targets when an interval <500 ms separates them (16-18). Importantly, the AB does not prevent perceptual processing of missed target stimuli but only their conscious report (19), demonstrating the attentional nature of this effect and making it a good candidate for the purpose of our investigation. Although numerous studies have investigated factors, e.g., stimulus and timing parameters, that manipulate the magnitude of a particular AB outcome, few have sought to characterize the neural state under which “standard” AB parameters produce an inability to report the second target on some trials but not others. We hypothesized that the different attentional states leading to different behavioral outcomes (second target reported correctly or not) are characterized by specific patterns of transient long-range synchronization between brain areas involved in target processing. Showing the hypothesized correspondence between states of neural synchronization and human behavior in an attentional task entails two demonstrations. First, it needs to be demonstrated that cortical areas that are suspected to be involved in visual-attention tasks, and the AB in particular, interact by means of neural synchronization. This demonstration is particularly important because previous brain-imaging studies (e.g., ref. 5) only showed that the respective areas are active within a rather large time window in the same task and not that they are concurrently active and actually create an interactive network. Second, it needs to be demonstrated that the pattern of neural synchronization is sensitive to the behavioral outcome; specifically, the ability to correctly identify the second of two rapidly succeeding visual targets

Regarding the benefit of zero-dimensional noise

Baker and Meese (2012) (B&M) provided an empirically driven criticism of the use of two-dimensional (2D) pixel noise in equivalent noise (EN) experiments. Their main objection was that in addition to injecting variability into the contrast detecting mechanisms, 2D noise also invokes gain control processes from a widely tuned contrast gain pool (e.g., Foley, 1994). B&M also developed a zero-dimensional (0D) noise paradigm in which all of the variance is concentrated in the mechanisms involved in the detection process. They showed that this form of noise conformed much more closely to expectations than did a 2D variant.

The Maximal Number of Particles in a Branching Process with State-Dependent Immigration

AMS subject classification: 60J80, 60J15.

Hausdorff Approximation of Functions Different from Zero at One Point - Implementation in Programming Environment Mathematica

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.1.2.

Total Progeny in a Subcritical Branching Process with two Types of Immigration

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60F05

Serum-free process development:improving the yield and consistency of human mesenchymal stromal cell production

Background aims: The cost-effective production of human mesenchymal stromal cells (hMSCs) for off-the-shelf and patient specific therapies will require an increasing focus on improving product yield and driving manufacturing consistency. Methods: Bone marrow-derived hMSCs (BM-hMSCs) from two donors were expanded for 36 days in monolayer with medium supplemented with either fetal bovine serum (FBS) or PRIME-XV serum-free medium (SFM). Cells were assessed throughout culture for proliferation, mean cell diameter, colony-forming potential, osteogenic potential, gene expression and metabolites. Results: Expansion of BM-hMSCs in PRIME-XV SFM resulted in a significantly higher growth rate (P < 0.001) and increased consistency between donors compared with FBS-based culture. FBS-based culture showed an inter-batch production range of 0.9 and 5 days per dose compared with 0.5 and 0.6 days in SFM for each BM-hMSC donor line. The consistency between donors was also improved by the use of PRIME-XV SFM, with a production range of 0.9 days compared with 19.4 days in FBS-based culture. Mean cell diameter has also been demonstrated as a process metric for BM-hMSC growth rate and senescence through a correlation (R² = 0.8705) across all conditions. PRIME-XV SFM has also shown increased consistency in BM-hMSC characteristics such as per cell metabolite utilization, in vitro colony-forming potential and osteogenic potential despite the higher number of population doublings. Conclusions: We have increased the yield and consistency of BM-hMSC expansion between donors, demonstrating a level of control over the product, which has the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness and reduce the risk in these manufacturing processes.

Simultaneous multichannel carrier-suppressed return-to-zero to non-return-to-zero format conversion using a fiber Bragg grating

A novel multichannel carrier-suppressed return-to-zero (CSRZ) to non-return-to-zero (NRZ) format conversion scheme based on a single custom-designed fiber Bragg grating (FBG) with comb spectra is proposed. The spectral response of each channel is designed according to the algebraic difference between the CSRZ and NRZ spectra outlines. The tailored group delays are introduced to minimize the maximum refractive index modulation. Numerical results show that four-channel 200-GHz-spaced CSRZ signals at 40 Gbits/s can be converted into NRZ signals with high Q-factor and wide-range robustness. It is shown that our proposed FBG is robust to deviations of bandwidth and central wavelength detuning. Another important merit of this scheme is that the pattern effects are efficiently reduced owing to the well-designed spectra response.

Long memory in log-range series:do structural breaks matter?

This paper examines whether the observed long memory behavior of log-range series is to some extent spurious and whether it can be explained by the presence of structural breaks. Utilizing stock market data we show that the characterization of log-range series as long memory processes can be a strong assumption. Moreover, we find that all examined series experience a large number of significant breaks. Once the breaks are accounted for, the volatility persistence is eliminated. Overall, the findings suggest that volatility can be adequately represented, at least in-sample, through a multiple breaks process and a short run component.

Ultra-long range distributed fibre sensing using virtually transparent propagation

Distributed fibre sensors provide unique capabilities for monitoring large infrastructures with high resolution. Practically, all these sensors are based on some kind of backscattering interaction. A pulsed activating signal is launched on one side of the sensing fibre and the backscattered signal is read as a function of the time of flight of the pulse along the fibre. A key limitation in the measurement range of all these sensors is introduced by fibre attenuation. As the pulse travels along the fibre, the losses in the fibre cause a drop of signal contrast and consequently a growth in the measurement uncertainty. In typical single-mode fibres, attenuation imposes a range limit of less than 30km, for resolutions in the order of 1-2 meters. An interesting improvement in this performance can be considered by using distributed amplification along the fibre [1]. Distributed amplification allows having a more homogeneous signal power along the sensing fibre, which also enables reducing the signal power at the input and therefore avoiding nonlinearities. However, in long structures (≥ 50 km), plain distributed amplification does not perfectly compensate the losses and significant power variations along the fibre are to be expected, leading to inevitable limitations in the measurements. From this perspective, it is simple to understand intuitively that the best possible solution for distributed sensors would be offered by a virtually transparent fibre, i.e. a fibre exhibiting effectively zero attenuation in the spectral region of the pulse. In addition, it can be shown that lossless transmission is the working point that allows the minimization of the amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise build-up. © 2011 IEEE.

Scalability and process transfer of mesenchymal stromal cell production from monolayer to microcarrier culture using human platelet lysate

Background aims: The selection of medium and associated reagents for human mesenchymal stromal cell (hMSC) culture forms an integral part of manufacturing process development and must be suitable for multiple process scales and expansion technologies. Methods: In this work, we have expanded BM-hMSCs in fetal bovine serum (FBS)- and human platelet lysate (HPL)-containing media in both a monolayer and a suspension-based microcarrier process. Results: The introduction of HPL into the monolayer process increased the BM-hMSC growth rate at the first experimental passage by 0.049 day and 0.127/day for the two BM-hMSC donors compared with the FBS-based monolayer process. This increase in growth rate in HPL-containing medium was associated with an increase in the inter-donor consistency, with an inter-donor range of 0.406 cumulative population doublings after 18 days compared with 2.013 in FBS-containing medium. Identity and quality characteristics of the BM-hMSCs are also comparable between conditions in terms of colony-forming potential, osteogenic potential and expression of key genes during monolayer and post-harvest from microcarrier expansion. BM-hMSCs cultured on microcarriers in HPL-containing medium demonstrated a reduction in the initial lag phase for both BM-hMSC donors and an increased BM-hMSC yield after 6 days of culture to 1.20 ± 0.17 × 105 and 1.02 ± 0.005 × 105 cells/mL compared with 0.79 ± 0.05 × 105 and 0.36 ± 0.04 × 105 cells/mL in FBS-containing medium. Conclusions: This study has demonstrated that HPL, compared with FBS-containing medium, delivers increased growth and comparability across two BM-hMSC donors between monolayer and microcarrier culture, which will have key implications for process transfer during scale-up.