Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Yield loss caused by huanglongbing in different sweet orange cultivars in So Paulo, Brazil

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) reduces an affected orchard`s economic life. This work aimed to characterize yield loss due to HLB for different sweet orange cultivars and determine the relationship between disease severity and yield. Disease severity and yield were assessed on 949 individual trees distributed in 11 different blocks from sweet orange cultivars Hamlin, Westin, Pera and Valencia. In each block, plants showing a range of HLB severity levels and asymptomatic plants were selected. Total yield (weight of harvested fruit), mean weight of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit, relative yield (symptomatic tree yield/mean yield of asymptomatic trees from the same block) and relative number of fruits (fruit number from symptomatic tree/mean number of fruits from asymptomatic trees from the same block) were determined. The weight of symptomatic fruit was lower than the weight of asymptomatic fruit, but the weights of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit were not correlated with disease severity, indicating that the effects of HLB were restricted to symptomatic branches. The relationship of the relative yield with HLB severity can be satisfactorily described by a negative exponential model. The rates of yield decrease as a function of disease severity were similar for all assessed cultivars. A relative yield (up to 19%) was observed even for trees where disease severity was 100%. The strong linear relationship between relative number of fruits per tree and the relative yield per tree suggested that the yield reduction was due primarily to early fruit drop or lack of fruit set on affected branches.

Role of healthy nursery plants in orange yield during eight years of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics

The production and commercialization of citrus seedlings inspected and produced in protected screen-houses has become mandatory in Sao Paulo State, Brazil since January 2003. This law was intended to avoid the dispersion of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC), disease caused by Xylella fastidiosa. Our objective was to compare the yield over 8 years of `Natal` sweet orange trees grafted onto Rangpur lime obtained from healthy nursery plants and from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. Yield was evaluated in an orchard planted in February 1999 with two treatments: (i) trees from healthy nursery plant, and (ii) trees from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. The mean yield was 21% higher in trees from healthy nursery plants, as compared to trees from inoculated nursery plants. This difference represents a gain of approximately 203 boxes of 40.8 kg each, considering a planting density of 550 plants per hectare. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of microsatellites markers associated with yield components and quality parameters in sugarcane

Marker assisted selection depends on the identification of tightly linked association between marker and the trait of interest. In the present work, functional (EST-SSRs) and genomic (gSSRs) microsatellite markers were used to detect putative QTLs for sugarcane yield components (stalk number, diameter and height) and as well as for quality parameters (Brix, Pol and fibre) in plant cane. The mapping population (200 individuals) was derived from a bi-parental cross (IACSP95-3018 x IACSP93-3046) from the IAC Sugarcane Breeding Program. As the map is under construction, single marker trait association analysis based on the likelihood ratio test was undertaken to detect the QTLs. Of the 215 single dose markers evaluated (1:1 and 3:1), 90 (42%) were associated with putative QTLs involving 43 microsatellite primers (18 gSSRs and 25 EST-SSRs). For the yield components, 41 marker/trait associations were found: 20 for height, 6 for diameter and 15 for stalk number. An EST-SSRs marker with homology to non-phototropic hypocotyls 4 (NPH4) protein was associated with a putative QTL with positive effect for diameter as also with a negative effect for stalk number. In relation to the quality parameters, 18 marker trait associations were found for Brix, 19 for Pol, and 12 for fibre. For fibre, 58% of the QTLs detected showed a negative effect on this trait. Some makers associated with QTLs with a negative effect for fibre showed a positive effect for Pol, reflecting the negative correlation generally observed between these traits.

Cloning, expression, molecular modelling and docking analysis of glutathione transferase from Saccharum officinarum

Sugarcane yield and quality are affected by a number of biotic and abiotic stresses. In response to such stresses, plants may increase the activities of some enzymes such as glutathione transferase (GST), which are involved in the detoxification of xenobiotics. Thus, a sugarcane GST was modelled and molecular docked using the program LIGIN to investigate the contributions of the active site residues towards the binding of reduced glutathione (GSH) and 1-chloro-2,4-dinitrobenzene (CDNB). As a result, W13 and I119 were identified as key residues for the specificity of sugarcane GSTF1 (SoGSTF1) towards CDNB. To obtain a better understanding of the catalytic specificity of sugarcane GST (SoGSTF1), two mutants were designed, W13L and I119F. Tertiary structure models and the same docking procedure were performed to explain the interactions between sugarcane GSTs with GSH and CDNB. An electron-sharing network for GSH interaction was also proposed. The SoGSTF1 and the mutated gene constructions were cloned and expressed in Escherichia coli and the expressed protein purified. Kinetic analyses revealed different Km values not only for CDNB, but also for GSH. The Km values were 0.2, 1.3 and 0.3 mM for GSH, and 0.9, 1.2 and 0.5 mM for CDNB, for the wild type, W13L mutant and I119F mutant, respectively. The V(max) values were 297.6, 224.5 and 171.8 mu mol min(-1) mg(-1) protein for GSH, and 372.3, 170.6 and 160.4 mu mol min(-1) mg(-1) protein for CDNB.

Analysis of genomic and functional RFLP derived markers associated with sucrose content, fiber and yield QTLs in a sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) commercial cross

Expressed sequence tags derived markers have a great potential to be used in functional map construction and QTL tagging. In the present work, sugarcane genomic probes and expressed sequence tags having homology to genes, mostly involved in carbohydrate metabolism were used in RFLP assays to identify putative QTLs as well as their epistatic interactions for fiber content, cane yield, pol and tones of sugar per hectare, at two crop cycles in a progeny derived from a bi-parental cross of sugarcane elite materials. A hundred and twenty marker trait associations were found, of which 26 at both crop cycle and 32 only at first ratoon cane. A sucrose synthase derived marker was associated with a putative QTL having a high negative effect on cane yield and also with a QTL having a positive effect on Pol at both crop cycles. Fifty digenic epistatic marker interactions were identified for the four traits evaluated. Of these, only two were observed at both crop cycles.

Genetic variability among sugarcane genotypes based on polymorphisms in sucrose metabolism and drought tolerance genes

Target region amplification polymorphism (TRAP) markers were used to estimate the genetic similarity (GS) among 53 sugarcane varieties and five species of the Saccharum complex. Seven fixed primers designed from candidate genes involved in sucrose metabolism and three from those involved in drought response metabolism were used in combination with three arbitrary primers. The clustering of the genotypes for sucrose metabolism and drought response were similar, but the GS based on Jaccard`s coefficient changed. The GS based on polymorphism in sucrose genes estimated in a set of 46 Brazilian varieties, all of which belong to the three Brazilian breeding programs, ranged from 0.52 to 0.9, and that based on drought data ranged from 0.44 to 0.95. The results suggest that genetic variability in the evaluated genes was lower in the sucrose metabolism genes than in the drought response metabolism ones.

Zn uptake, physiological response and stress attenuation in mycorrhizal jack bean growing in soil with increasing Zn concentrations

The influence of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) inoculation on Canavalia ensiformis growth. nutrient and Zn uptake, and on some physiological parameters in response to increasing soil Zn concentrations was studied. Treatments were applied in seven replicates in a 2 x 4 factorial design, consisting of the inoculation or not with the AMF Glomus etunicatum, and the addition of Zn to soil at the concentrations of 0, 100, 300 and 900 mg kg(-1). AMF inoculation enhanced the accumulation of Zn in tissues and promoted biomass yields and root nodulation. Mycorrhizal plants exhibited relative tolerance to Zn up to 300 mg kg(-1) without exhibiting visual symptoms of toxicity, in contrast to non-mycorrhizal plants which exhibited a significant growth reduction at the same soil Zn concentration. The highest concentration of Zn added to soil was highly toxic to the plants. Leaves of plants grown in high Zn concentration exhibited a Zn-induced proline accumulation and also an increase in soluble amino acid contents; however proline contents were lower in mycorrhizal jack beans. Plants in association or not with the AMF exhibited marked differences in the foliar soluble amino acid profile and composition in response to Zn addition to soil. In general, Zn induced oxidative stress which could be verified by increased lipid peroxidation rates and changes in catalase, ascorbate peroxidase, glutathione reductase and superoxide dismutase activities. In summary, G. etunicatum was able to maintain an efficient symbiosis with jack bean plants in moderately contaminated Zn-soils, improving plant performance under those conditions, which is likely to be due to a combination of physiological and nutritional changes caused by the intimate relation between fungus and plant. The enhanced Zn uptake by AMF inoculated jack bean plants might be of interest for phytoremediation purposes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chlorophyll a fluorescence and ultrastructural changes in chloroplast of water hyacinth as indicators of environmental stress

Chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were used to assess the stress conditions in water hyacinth along the Paraiba do Sul River (PSR), an important River in southeastern Brazil. The data were obtained at the end of the dry season of 2005 and at the end of the wet season of 2006. Changes in F-o and F-m parameters were observed as differentiated responses, depending on the season. Non-photochemical dissipation (qN and NPQ) from plants was greater in the most industrialized region of the PSR in both seasons. However, F-v/F-m for all samples ranged between 0.77 and 0.81, showing that high maximum quantum yield was maintained. Although the F-v/F-m suggests that the plants were exhibiting normal photochemical activities, ultrastructural changes in chloroplasts showed thylakoids disorganization. Plants from the most industrialized region showed non-stacking grana thylakoids disposition. In spite of these alterations, the membrane integrity was maintained, suggesting an adaptation to adjustment to adverse environmental conditions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antioxidant response of Nicotiana tabacum cv. Bright Yellow 2 cells to cadmium and nickel stress

Plant cell cultures are a suitable model system for investigation of the physiological mechanisms of tolerance to environmental stress. We have determined the effects of Cd (0.1 and 0.2 mM CdCl(2)) and Ni (0.075 and 0.75 mM NiCl(2)) on Nicotiana tabacum L. cv. Bright Yellow (TBY-2) cell suspension cultures over a 72-h period. Inhibition of growth, loss of cell viability and lipid peroxidation occurred, in general, only when the TBY-2 cells were grown at 0.2 mM CdCl(2) and at 0.75 mM NiCl(2). At 0.1 mM CdCl(2), a significant increase in growth was determined at the end of the experiment. Increases in the activities of all of the four enzymatic antioxidant defence systems tested, were induced by the two concentrations of Cd and Ni, but at different times during the period of metal exposure. Overall, the cellular antioxidant responses to Cd and Ni were similar and were apparently sufficient to avoid oxidative stress at the lower concentrations of Cd and Ni. The activities of glutathione reductase and glutathione S-transferase increased early but transiently, whereas the activities of catalase and guaiacol peroxidase increased in the latter half of the experimental period. Therefore it is likely that the metabolism of reduced glutathione was enhanced during the initial onset of the stress, while catalase and guaiacol-type peroxidase appeared to play a more important role in the antioxidant response once the stress became severe.

Tree performance and fruit yield and quality of `Okitsu` Satsuma mandarin grafted on 12 rootstocks

The citriculture in Brazil, as well as in other important regions in the world, is based on very few mandarin cultivars. This fact leads to a short harvest period and higher prices for off-season fruit. The `Okitsu` Satsuma (Citrus unshiu Marc.) is among the earliest ripening mandarin cultivars and it is considered to be tolerant to, citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri Schaad et al.) and to citrus variegated chlorosis (Xylella fastidiosa Wells et al.). Despite having regular fruit quality under hot climate conditions, the early fruit maturation and absence of seeds of `Okitsu` fruits are well suited for the local market in the summer(December through March), when the availability of citrus fruits for fresh consumption is limited. Yet, only a few studies have been conducted in Brazil on rootstocks for `Okitsu`. Consequently, a field trial was carried out in Bebeclouro, Sao Paulo State, to evaluate the horticultural performance of `Okitsu` Satsuma mandarin budded onto 12 rootstocks: the citrandarin `Changsha` mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco) x Poncirus trifoliata `English Small`: the hybrid Rangpur lime (Citrus limonia Osbeck) x `Swingle` citrumelo (P. trifoliata (L.) Raf. x Citrus paradisi Macfad.); the trifoliates (P. trifoliata (L) Raf)`Rubidoux`,`FCAV` and `Flying Dragon`(P. trifoliata var. monstrosa); the mandarins `Sun Chu Sha Kat`(C. reticulata Blanco) and `Sunki`(Citrus sunki (Hayata) Hort. ex. Tanaka); the Rangpur limes (C. limonia Osbeck) `Cravo Limeira` and `Cravo FCAV`;`Carrizo` citrange (Citrus sinensis x P. trifoliata), `Swingle` citrumelo (P. trifoliata x C. paradisi), and `Orlando` tangelo (C. paradisi x Citrus tangerina cv. `Dancy`). The experimental grove was planted in 2001, using a 6 m x 3 m spacing, in a randomized block design. No supplementary irrigation was applied. Fruit yield, canopy volume, and fruit quality were assessed for each rootstock. A cluster multivariate analysis identified three different rootstock pairs with similar effects on plant growth, yield and fruit quality of `Okitsu` mandarin. The `Flying Dragon `trifoliate had a unique effect over the `Okitsu` trees performance, inducing lower canopy volume and higher yield efficiency and fruit quality, and might be suitable for high-density plantings. The `Cravo Limeira` and `Cravo FCAV` Rangpur limes induced early-ripening of fruits, with low fruit quality. `Sun Chu Sha Kat` and `Sunki` mandarins and the `Orlando` tangelo conferred lower yield efficiency and less content of soluble solids for the latter rootstock. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seed development, yield and quality of two palm species growing in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil: implications for ecological restoration

Natural forest remnants have been set as seed production fields to supply seeds of native tree species for tropical forest restoration, but the effect of different forest types on seed production has not been accessed to date for palm species. In this work, we studied seed development, yield, and quality of two palm species in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil. Seed production of palmiteiro (Euterpe edulis) and queen-palm (Syagrus romanzoffiana), which are largely used in restoration efforts due to their importance for vertebrate frugivores, were studied in natural remnants of Atlantic Rainforest, Restinga Forest, Seasonally Dry Forest, and Cerrado Forest. We studied seed development, yield, size, and germination of seed lots produced in some of these forest types, including seeds harvested in 2008, 2009, and both years. Seed yield and quality, as well as seed dry mass in 2009, were higher for palmiteiro seeds produced in the Atlantic Rainforest, while queen-palm seeds produced at the Restinga Forest showed the higher mass and yield, but the lowest physiological potential. Consequently, these natural differences of seed yield and quality have to be taken into account for establishing standards for seed commercialization and analysis, seed pricing, and seedling production in forest nurseries.

Landscape unit discrimination for pedological surveys by orbital spectral response

Landscape unit discrimination for pedological surveys by orbital spectral response. The objective of tins study was compare two soil survey methods. The first was performed by methods traditionally used to distinguish landscape units and soil class discrimination. The second was based on soil class distinction through orbital spectral response. In order to establish soil characteristics and their classification, soil samples were collected at two depths in a grid system, with a distance of 500 meters between points. With these samples, physical and chemical analyses were carried out. In the sampling points, the apparent reflectance of the soil, front the orbital image, was determined and, through cluster analysis landscape units were established. In order to evaluate the resemblance reliability between the landscape units established in each method, the Kappa index was used, the value set for the confusion matrix was 0.43, indicating high quality in the comparison, showing that the non-conventional method was as close as the one carried out by photointerpretation.

Growth performance and body composition of pacu Piaractus mesopotamicus (Holmberg 1887) in response to dietary protein and energy levels

Improper dietary protein and energy levels and their ratio will lead to increased fish production cost. This work evaluated effects of dietary protein : energy ratio on growth and body composition of pacu, Piaractus mesopotamicus. Fingerling pacu (15.5 +/- 0.4 g) were fed twice a day for 10 weeks until apparent satiation with diets containing 220, 260, 300, 340 or 380 g kg-1 crude protein (CP) and 10.9, 11.7, 12.6, 13.4 or 14.2 MJ kg-1 digestible energy (DE) in a totally randomized experimental design, 5 x 5 factorial scheme (n = 3). Weight gain, specific growth rate increased and feed conversion ratio (FCR) decreased significantly (P < 0.05) when CP increased from 220 to 271, 268 and 281 g kg-1 respectively. Pacu was able to adjust feed consumption in a wide range of dietary DE concentration. Fish fed 260 CP diets showed best (P < 0.05) protein efficiency ratio and FCR with 11.7-12.6 MJ kg-1; but for the 380 CP-diets group, significant differences were observed only at 14.2 MJ kg-1 dietary energy level, suggesting that pacu favours protein as energy source. DE was the chief influence on whole body chemical composition. Minimum dietary protein requirement of pacu is 270 g kg-1, with an optimum CP : DE of 22.2 g MJ-1.