The Drivers of Current Account Surplus in Germany and the Politics of Rebalancing in the Eurozone. EU Centre, Singapore Working Paper No. 24, April 2015

Current account deficits have caught the public’s attention as they have contributed to the European debt crisis. However, surpluses also constitute an issue as a deficit in any country must be financed through a surplus in another country. In 2013, Germany, now the world’s largest surplus economy, registered a record high US$273 billion surplus. This paper looks at what accounts for Germany’s surplus, revealing that the major driving factors include strong global demand for quality German exports, domestic wage restraint, an undervalued single currency, high domestic savings rate and interest rate convergence in the euro area. This paper echoes the US Treasury’s view that a persistent German surplus makes it harder for the eurozone as a whole and the southern peripheral economies in particular to recover from the current financial crisis by imposing a Europe-wide “deflationary bias” through pushing up the exchange rate of the euro, exporting feeble German inflation and projecting its ultra-tight macroeconomic policies onto crisis economies. This paper contends that Germany’s trade surplus is likely to endure as Germany and other eurozone countries uphold diverging views on the nature of the surplus engage in a blame-game amidst a sluggish rebalancing process. Prizing the surplus as a reflection of hard work and economic competitiveness, German authorities urge their southern eurozone colleagues to undertake bold structural reforms to correct the imbalance, while the hand-tied governments in crisis-stricken economies call on Germany to do its “homework” by boosting German demands for European goods and services.

Cameron’s ‘renegotiations’ (or Russian roulette) with the EU: An interim assessment. CEPS Working Document No. 413/September 2015

Since the May 2015 general election when the Tory Party gained an absolute majority in the House of Commons, Prime Minister Cameron has put his campaign into high gear to get a ‘new settlement’ with the EU and invested much personal diplomacy to try to advance his objective. “What does he really want?” is still heard from other EU leaders, yet his agenda is taking rough shape with calls for results under four headings: “competitiveness, sovereignty, social security and economic governance”. These are only code words, however, for a mixed bag of more specific desiderata, which overall seem to be moderate. Impossible demands have been quietly dropped. Some items will still be tricky to negotiate while others can be placed on the agenda for ongoing EU ‘reform’ that can be widely supported. The Brussels side of the affair thus seems manageable, but the wild cards at home in the UK remain or are becoming even wilder. The standard hazards of the referendum instrument are now exacerbated by the unknown quantity of the new Labour leadership alongside the aggressively Eurosceptic majority of Tory MPs and the great migration crisis, which is translating now into a negative factor for the EU in UK opinion polls. This ostensibly very democratic process is looking more and more like a deadly serious game of Russian roulette.

Resource Efficiency Indicators for Policy-Making. CEPS Working Document No. 415/November 2015

In the EU, resource efficiency has been high on the political agenda since 2011, when the European Commission first included it as one of the seven flagship initiatives in its Europe 2020 Strategy for “smart, sustainable and inclusive growth”. Resource efficiency is not only considered an environmental necessity, but also a political, economic and security opportunity. This paper first stresses the benefits and opportunities for the EU of improving its resource efficiency. It then explains the added value of the www.measuring-progress.eu web tool, which aims to improve the way policy-makers and others involved in the policy process can access, understand and use indicators for resource efficiency. It provides practical examples of relevant indicators in the form of the EU Resource Efficiency Scoreboard and a case study showing how the web tool established by NETGREEN can be used in practice. The paper concludes with a number of policy messages.

Reasons withheld and insufficient reasoning as due process violations: two cases before the ECHR

Two very different cases decided by the European Court of Human Rights illustrate how the non-availability of sufficient reasons, for pre-trial judicial decisions in one case, and for a decision in a civil and administrative matter in the other, can lead to due process violations in terms of Articles 5 or 6 of the Convention of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.

Toward equality of well-being : strategies for improving minority health : strategic planning and coordination process.

S/N 037017-024-01504-1 (GPO).

Clinical supervision: Its influence on client-rated working alliance and client symptom reduction in the brief treatment of major depression

Supervision of psychotherapists and counselors, especially in the early years of practice, is widely accepted as being important for professional development and to ensure optimal client outcomes. Although the process of clinical supervision has been extensively studied, less is known about the impact of supervision on psychotherapy practice and client symptom outcome. This study evaluated the impact of clinical supervision on client working alliance and symptom reduction in the brief treatment of major depression. The authors randomly assigned 127 clients with a diagnosis of major depression to 127 supervised or unsupervised therapists to receive eight sessions of problems-solving treatment. Supervised therapists were randomly assigned to either alliance skill- or alliance process-focused supervision and received eight supervision sessions. Before beginning treatment, therapists received one supervision session for brief training in the working alliance supervision approach and in specific characteristics of each case. Standard measures of therapeutic alliance and symptom change were used as dependent variables. The results showed a significant effect for both supervision conditions on working alliance from the first session of therapy, symptom reduction, and treatment retention and evaluation but no effect differences between supervision conditions. It was not possible to separate the effects of supervision from the single pretreatment session and is possible that allegiance effects might have inflated results. The scientific and clinical relevance of these findings is discussed.

The sociolinguistic stratification of a connected speech process - The case of the T to R rule in the Black Country

This paper examines the connected speech process described by Wells (1982b) as the T to R rule in the West Midlands speech variety associated with the Black Country. The T to R rule is well known as a linguistic marker of local varieties of the middle and far north of England. Less well understood is its position in the phonological systems of Midlands varieties. Varieties of the Midlands of England are underresearched in comparison with varieties of the north, and what is known about the application of the T to R rule in this transitional dialect area is correspondingly nebulous. This paper focuses on the Black Country area, and examines the possible outputs in the contexts which give rise to /t/ becoming [?] in local varieties of the north. I examine the written and spoken evidence which suggests that the T to R rule does indeed operate in the Black Country variety. My analysis focuses on possible phonetic outcomes of the T to R rule across time. In my conclusion, I discuss briefly the possibility that, lying on a bundle of isoglosses separating north from south, the variety of the Black Country reflects this in that a T to [?] rule, rather than a T to R rule, is the dominant output of this connected speech process in the Black Country.

Development of a co-operative distributed process mining system for quality assurance

In this paper, a co-operative distributed process mining system (CDPMS) is developed to streamline the workflow along the supply chain in order to offer shorter delivery times, more flexibility and higher customer satisfaction with learning ability. The proposed system is equipped with the ‘distributed process mining’ feature which is used to discover the hidden relationships among each working decision in distributed manner. This method incorporates the concept of data mining and knowledge refinement into decision making process for ensuring ‘doing the right things’ within the workflow. An example of implementation is given, based on the case of slider manufacturer.

Strategic planning as communicative process

This paper looks at how a strategic plan is constructed through a communicative process. Drawing on Ricoeur’s concepts of decontextualization and recontextualization, we conceptualize strategic planning activities as being constituted through the iterative and recursive relationship of talk and text. Based on an in-depth case study, our findings show how multiple actors engage in a formal strategic planning process which is manifested in a written strategy document. This document is thus central in the iterative talk to text cycles. As individuals express their interpretations of the current strategic plan in talk, they are able to make amendments to the text that then shape future textual versions of the plan. This iterative cycle is repeated until a final plan is agreed. We develop our findings into a model of the communication process that explains how texts become more authoritative over time and, in doing so, how they inscribe power relationships and social order within organizations. These findings contribute to the literature on the purposes of largely institutionalized processes of strategic planning and to the literature on organization as a communications process.

Organising the innovation process:complementarities in innovation networking

This paper contributes to the developing literature on complementarities in organisational design. We test for the existence of complementarities in the use of external networking between phases of the innovation process in a sample of UK and German manufacturing plants. Our evidence suggests some differences between the UK and Germany in terms of the optimal combination of innovation activities in which to implement external networking. Broadly, there is more evidence of complementarities in the case of Germany, with the exception of the product engineering phase. By contrast, the UK exhibits generally strong evidence of substitutability in external networking in different phases, except between the identification of new products and product design and development phases.

Does the balanced scorecard make a difference to the strategy development process?

A great number of strategy tools are being taught in strategic management modules. These tools are available to managers for use in facilitating strategic decision-making and enhancing the strategy development process in their organisations. A number of studies have been published examining which are the most popular tools; however there is little empirical evidence on how their utilisation influences the strategy process. This paper is based on a large scale international survey on the strategy development process, and seeks to examine the impact of a particular strategy tool, the Balanced Scorecard, upon the strategy process. The Balanced Scorecard is one of the most popular strategy tools whose use has evolved since its introduction in the 1990’s. Recently, it has been suggested that as a strategy tool, Balanced Scorecard can influence all elements of the strategy process. The results of this study indicate that although there are significant differences in some elements of the strategy process between the organisations that have implemented the Balanced Scorecard and those that have not, the impact is not comprehensive.

Do strategic groups play a role in the SME financing process?

This exploratory paper, developing a conceptual model of owner-manager characteristics and access to finance, aims to investigate whether the concept of strategic groups plays a role in the process of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accessing finance. Strategic groups are groups of firms making similar patterns of investments in order to achieve their goals. This paper explores how strategic groups, which represent a classification of SMEs based upon their realised strategies, helps to provide an understanding of the success of SMEs in raising finance. The data, from a representative survey of 400 SMEs conducted by the Barclays Bank Telephone Research Unit, were subject to two-stage cluster analysis, thus codified into strategic groups using the natural rhythm of the data, rather than any subjective and value-laden categories being imposed by the authors. The findings show clear differentiation between strategic groups of SMEs, the characteristics of their owner-managers, and the financing strategies adopted. As such, the paper develops a novel typology of strategic groups of SMEs which, therefore, informs their financing strategies, as well as advising other stakeholders.

Deep hole drilling with twist drills: aspects of the CNC process and its real time monitoring and adaptive control

Deep hole drilling is one of the most complicated metal cutting processes and one of the most difficult to perform on CNC machine-tools or machining centres under conditions of limited manpower or unmanned operation. This research work investigates aspects of the deep hole drilling process with small diameter twist drills and presents a prototype system for real time process monitoring and adaptive control; two main research objectives are fulfilled in particular : First objective is the experimental investigation of the mechanics of the deep hole drilling process, using twist drills without internal coolant supply, in the range of diarneters Ø 2.4 to Ø4.5 mm and working length up to 40 diameters. The definition of the problems associated with the low strength of these tools and the study of mechanisms of catastrophic failure which manifest themselves well before and along with the classic mechanism of tool wear. The relationships between drilling thrust and torque with the depth of penetration and the various machining conditions are also investigated and the experimental evidence suggests that the process is inherently unstable at depths beyond a few diameters. Second objective is the design and implementation of a system for intelligent CNC deep hole drilling, the main task of which is to ensure integrity of the process and the safety of the tool and the workpiece. This task is achieved by means of interfacing the CNC system of the machine tool to an external computer which performs the following functions: On-line monitoring of the drilling thrust and torque, adaptive control of feed rate, spindle speed and tool penetration (Z-axis), indirect monitoring of tool wear by pattern recognition of variations of the drilling thrust with cumulative cutting time and drilled depth, operation as a data base for tools and workpieces and finally issuing of alarms and diagnostic messages.

Human performance modelling as an aid in the process of manufacturing system design

Manufacturing system design is an ongoing activity within industry. Modelling tools based on Discrete Event Simulation are often used by practitioners during this design cycle. However, such tools do not adequately model the behaviour of 'direct' workers in manufacturing environments. There is an important need to expand the capability of modelling to include the relationships between human centred factors (demography, attitudes, beliefs, etc), their working environment (physical and organizational), and their subsequent performance in terms of productive routines. Therefore, this paper describes research that has formed a pilot modelling methodology that is an important first step in providing such a capability.