Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.

Where are Yorkshire’s terps? Wetland exploitation in the early medieval period

Where are the terps in Yorkshire, or for that matter where is any other evidence of exploitation of the wetlands in the early medieval period? Archaeological evidence remains largely elusive for the period between the early fifth and the late ninth century. Among the very few sites in wetland landscapes dated to this period are the settlement of York and the middle Anglo-Saxon bridge at Skerne in the Hull valley. Sites from the free-draining soils adjacent to wetlands are more frequent, and include a monastery (Beverley), settlements (e.g. Nafferton and North Frodingham), cemeteries (e.g. Hornsea, Burton Pidsea, Hessle, North Frodingham, Swine and Stamford Bridge) and various isolated finds (recently summarised in Van de Noort and Davies 1993).

An arch in the UK

Arches, streamers, polar lights, merry dancers… just a few of many names used to describe the aurora borealis in historical documents in the UK. We have compiled a new catalogue of 20591 independent reports of auroral sightings from the British Isles and Ireland for 1700–1975 using observatory yearbooks, the diaries of amateur observers, newspaper reports and the scientific literature. Our aim is to provide an independent data series that can aid understanding of longterm solar variability, alongside cosmogenic isotope data and historic records of geomagnetic activity and sunspots.

Phylogeny and ecology determine morphological structure in a snake assemblage in the central Brazilian Cerrado

To investigate the role of ecological and historical factors in the organization of communities, we describe the ecomorphological structure of an assemblage of snakes (61 species in six families) in the Cerrado (a savanna-like grassland) of Distrito Federal, Brazil. These snakes vary in habits, with some being fossorial, cryptozoic, terrestrial, semi-aquatic, or arboreal. Periods of activity also vary. A multivariate analysis identified distinct morphological groups associated with patterns of resource use. We report higher niche diversification compared to snakes in the Caatinga (a semi-arid region in northeastern Brazil), with fossorial and cryptozoic species occupying morphological space that is not occupied in the Caatinga. Monte Carlo permutations from canonical phylogenetic ordination revealed a significant phylogenetic effect on morphology for Colubridae, Colubrinae, Viperidae, Elapidae, and Boidae indicating that morphological divergence occurred in the distant past. We conclude that phylogeny is the most important factor determining structure of this Neotropical assemblage. Nevertheless, our results also suggest a strong ecological component characterizes a peculiar snake fauna.

Breeding season of the hermit crab petrochirus diogenes (anomura : diogenidae) in the north coast of São Paulo state, Brazil

Petrochirus diogenes, one of the largest hermit crabs in the western Atlantic, was studied in the north coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, to determine its breeding season through the analysis of gonad development at a macroscopic level. The analysis of 999 crabs collected from 1995 to 1999, based on four categories of gonad development, showed that males present gonads in the advanced stage during all seasons, and although females present developed ovaries all year as well, the peak incidence is in the summer. The peak of recruitment occurs in the winter.

Seasonal and spatial species richness variation of dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae s. str.) in the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Lagrangian transport evaluation of atmospheric chemistry in the Mediterranean region

Global observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere are essential for understanding and studying the present and future state of the earth's atmosphere. However, by analyzing field experiments the consideration of the atmospheric motion is indispensable, because transport enables different chemical species, with different local natural and anthropogenic sources, to interact chemically and so consequently influences the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The distance over which that transport occurs is highly dependent upon meteorological conditions (e.g., wind speed, precipitation) and the properties of chemical species itself (e.g., solubility, reactivity). This interaction between chemistry and dynamics makes the study of atmospheric chemistry both difficult and challenging, and also demonstrates the relevance of including the atmospheric motions in that context. In this doctoral thesis the large-scale transport of air over the eastern Mediterranean region during summer 2001, with a focus on August during the Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study (MINOS) measurement campaign, was investigated from a lagrangian perspective. Analysis of back trajectories demonstrated transport of polluted air masses from western and eastern Europe in the boundary layer, from the North Atlantic/North American area in the middle end upper troposphere and additionally from South Asia in the upper troposphere towards the eastern Mediterranean. Investigation of air mass transport near the tropopause indicated enhanced cross-tropopause transport relative to the surrounding area over the eastern Mediterranean region in summer. A large band of air mass transport across the dynamical tropopause develops in June, and is shifted toward higher latitudes in July and August. This shifting is associated with the development and the intensification of the Arabian and South Asian upper-level anticyclones and consequential with areas of maximum clear-air turbulence, hypothesizing quasi-permanent areas with turbulent mixing of tropospheric and stratospheric air during summer over the eastern Mediterranean as a result of large-scale synoptic circulation. In context with the latex knowledge about the transport of polluted air masses towards the Mediterranean and with increasing emissions, especially in developing countries like India, this likely gains in importance.

Resisting Postmodernity: Swedish social policy in the 1990s

The purpose of this paper is to introduce ideas that have emerged during the course of writing a book on Swedish welfare in the 1990s. The book is the result of many years of writing about two subjects: Swedish drug policy and the Swedish welfare state. The one very specialised, the other, more general. I first became interested in Swedish drug policy on a research visit to Örebro Län in 1986. A social worker showed me a copy of the county's drug policy programme and explained the significance of the 'restrictive line'. I have spent the years since that visit, trying to understand and explain the Swedish goal of a drug-free society (Gould 1988, 1994, 1996b). I only began to write about the welfare state in Sweden in the early 1990s, just as things were beginning to go wrong for the economy (Gould 1993a, 1993b, 1996a, 1999). For the last few years I have intended to write a book on the events covered by the period 1991-1998 - the years of a Bourgeois and a Social Democratic Government -which would bring the two halves of my work together. Material for this study has been accumulated over many years. A number of research visits have been made; large numbers of academics, politicians, civil servants, journalists, unemployed people, social workers and their clients have been interviewed; and extensive use has been made of academic, administrative and public libraries. Since September 1991 I have systematically collected articles from Dagens Nyheter about social services, social insurance, health care, employment, social issues and problems, the economy and politics. The journal Riksdag och Departement (Parliament and Ministry), which summarises a wide range of public documents, has been invaluable. Friends and informal contacts have also given me insights into the Swedish way of life. The new book is based upon all of these experiences. This paper will begin with a brief account of major global social and economic changes that have occurred in the last twenty years. This is intended to provide a background to the more recent changes that have occurred in Swedish society in the last decade. It will be suggested that the changes in Sweden, particularly in the field of welfare, have been less severe than elsewhere and that this is due to political, institutional and cultural resistance. The paper will conclude by arguing that Sweden, as an exemplar of an Apollonian modern society, has had much to fear from the Dionysian characteristics of postmodernity.

Small aliquot and single grain IRSL and post-IR IRSL dating of fluvial and alluvial sediments from the Pativilca valley, Peru

Infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and post-IR IRSL are applied to small aliquots and single grains to determine the equivalent dose (De) of eleven alluvial and fluvial sediment samples collected in the Pativilca valley, Central Peru at ca. 10°S latitude. Small aliquot De distributions are rather symmetric and display over-dispersion values between 15 and 46%. Small aliquot g-values range between 4 and 8% per decade for the IRSL and 1 and 2% per decade for the post-IR IRSL signal. The single grain De distributions are highly over-dispersed with some of them skewed to higher doses, implying partial bleaching; this is especially true for the post-IR IRSL. Measurements of a modern analog reveal that residuals due to partial bleaching are present in both the IRSL as well as the post-IR IRSL signal. The g-values of individual grains exhibit a wide range with high individual uncertainties and might contribute significantly to the spread of the single grain De values, at least for the IRSL data. Electron Microprobe Analysis performed on single grains reveal that a varying K-content can be excluded as the origin of over-dispersion. Final ages for the different approaches are calculated using the Central Age Model and the Minimum Age Model (MAM). The samples are grouped into well-beached, potentially well-bleached and partially bleached according to the evaluation of the single grain distributions and the agreement of age estimates between methods. The application of the MAM to the single grain data resulted in consistent age estimates for both the fading corrected IRSL and the post-IR IRSL ages, and suggests that both approaches are suitable for dating these samples. Keywords

Glacier response to the change in atmospheric circulation in the eastern Mediterranean during the Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, we document glacial deposits and reconstruct the glacial history in the Karagöl valley system in the eastern Uludağ in northwestern Turkey based on 42 cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from boulders and bedrock. Our results suggest the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) advance prior to 20.4 ± 1.2 ka and at least three re-advances until 18.6 ± 1.2 ka during the global LGM within Marine Isotope Stage-2. In addition, two older advances of unknown age are geomorphologically well constrained, but not dated due to the absence of suitable boulders. Glaciers advanced again two times during the Lateglacial. The older is exposure dated to not later than 15.9 ± 1.1 ka and the younger is attributed to the Younger Dryas (YD) based on field evidence. The timing of the glaciations in the Karagöl valley correlates well with documented archives in the Anatolian and Mediterranean mountains and the Alps. These glacier fluctuations may be explained by the change in the atmospheric circulation pattern during the different phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter indices.

Correlates of tobacco cessation counseling among Hispanic physicians in the US: a cross-sectional survey study.

BACKGROUND: Physician advice is an important motivator for attempting to stop smoking. However, physicians' lack of intervention with smokers has only modestly improved in the last decade. Although the literature includes extensive research in the area of the smoking intervention practices of clinicians, few studies have focused on Hispanic physicians. The purpose of this study was to explore the correlates of tobacco cessation counseling practices among Hispanic physicians in the US. METHODS: Data were collected through a validated survey instrument among a cross-sectional sample of self-reported Hispanic physicians practicing in New Mexico, and who were members of the New Mexico Hispanic Medical Society in the year 2001. Domains of interest included counseling practices, self-efficacy, attitudes/responsibility, and knowledge/skills. Returned surveys were analyzed to obtain frequencies and descriptive statistics for each survey item. Other analyses included: bivariate Pearson's correlation, factorial ANOVAs, and multiple linear regressions. RESULTS: Respondents (n = 45) reported a low level of compliance with tobacco control guidelines and recommendations. Results indicate that physicians' familiarity with standard cessation protocols has a significant effect on their tobacco-related practices (r = .35, variance shared = 12%). Self-efficacy and gender were both significantly correlated to tobacco related practices (r = .42, variance shared = 17%). A significant correlation was also found between self-efficacy and knowledge/skills (r = .60, variance shared = 36%). Attitudes/responsibility was not significantly correlated with any of the other measures. CONCLUSION: More resources should be dedicated to training Hispanic physicians in tobacco intervention. Training may facilitate practice by increasing knowledge, developing skills and, ultimately, enhancing feelings of self-efficacy.

What Limits Bacterial Production in the Suboxic Region of Permanently Ice-Covered Lake Bonney, Antarctica?

Bacterial production assays (thymidine incorporation rates) were used to evaluate the activity of heterotrophic bacteria at the chemocline region in both the East (ELB) and West (WLB) Lobes of permanently ice-covered Lake Bonney, in the Taylor Valley of Antarctica. The magnitude of activity varied dramatically within the depth interval of 1 to 2 m from moderate to very low levels below the chemocline, especially in the East Lobe, where chemical distributions indicate the absence of a normally functioning nitrogen cycle. Several parameters (e.g. addition of nutrients or chelators, dilution) were manipulated in incubation experiments in order to identify factors that would enhance activity in the suboxic deep waters of the East Lobe. Activity, in terms of thymidine incorporation, was consistently detected in the deep-water communities, implying that, although the water may be 'toxic', the cells remain viable. None of the treatments resulted in consistent enhancement of thymidine incorporation rates in samples from below the chemocline. Bacterial populations above the chemocline appear to be phosphorus-limited. The nature of the limitation, toxicity or inhibition that limits bacterial activity in the suboxic waters has not been identified.