A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP OF PRESCRIPTION RECEIPT AND EXPECTATION OF SICK-ROLE LEGITIMATION BY AMBULATORY VETERANS

This study explored the relationship of attitudes, needs, and health services utilization patterns of elderly veterans who were identified and categorized by their expectation for and receipt of sick-role legitimation. Three prescription types (new, change, renewal) were defined as the operational variables. A population of 676 ambulatory, chronically ill (average age 60 years) veterans were sent a questionnaire (74% response rate). In addition, retrospective medical and prescription record review was performed for a 45% sample of respondents. The results were analyzed using discriminant function and regression analysis. Fewer than 20% of the veterans responding expected to receive more prescriptions than were presently prescribed, whereas over 80% expected refill authorizations. Distinct attitudinal, need, and utilization patterns were identified. ^

Tuberculosis in HIV-infected individuals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Early and accurate detection of TB disease in HIV-infected individuals is a critical step for a successful TB program. In Vietnam, the diagnosis of TB disease, which is based predominantly on the clinical examination, chest radiography (CXR) and acid fast bacilli (AFB) sputum smear, has shown to be of low sensitivity in immunocompromised patients. The sputum culture is not routinely performed for patients with AFB negative smears, even in HIV-infected individuals.^ In that background, we conducted this cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of sputum culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), smear-negative PTB, and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in the HIV-infected population in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the largest city in Vietnam where both TB and HIV are highly prevalent. We also evaluated the diagnostic performance of various algorithms based on routine available tools in Vietnam such as symptoms screening, CXR, and AFB smear. Nearly 400 subjects were consecutively recruited from HIV-infected patients seeking care at the An Hoa Clinic in District 6 of Ho Chi Minh City from August 2009 through June 2010. Participants’ demographic data, clinical status, CXR, and laboratory results were collected. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to assess the association of covariates and PTB. ^ The prevalence of smear-positive TB, smear-negative TB, resistant TB, and MDR-TB were 7%, 2%, 5%, 2.5%, and 0.3%, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios for low CD4+ cell count, positive sputum smear, and CXR to positive sputum culture were 3.17, 32.04, and 4.28, respectively. Clinical findings alone had poor sensitivity, but the combination of CD4+ cell count, sputum smear, and CXR proved to perform a more accurate diagnosis.^ This study results support the routine use of sputum culture to improve the detection of TB disease in HIV-infected individuals in Vietnam. When routine sputum culture is not available, an algorithm combining CD4+ cell count, sputum smear, and CXR is recommended for diagnosing PTB. Future studies on more affordable, rapid, and accurate tests for TB infection would also be necessary to timely provide specific treatments for patients in need, reduce mortality, and minimize TB transmission to the general population.^

Posttraumatic stress disorder among veterans of the Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) wars: Psychological comorbidities, postdeployment social support and unit support

Much attention has been given to treating Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring (OIF/OEF) Veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, little attention is given to those Veterans who do not meet diagnostic criteria for PTSD but who may still benefit from intervention. Research is needed to investigate the impact of how different racial/ethnic backgrounds, different levels of social support and comorbid mental health disorders impact OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD. The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the association of comorbid Axis I disorders, race/ethnicity, different levels of postdeployment social support and unit support on OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD. Data for this dissertation were from postdeployment screenings of OIF/OEF Veterans from a large Veterans Affairs hospital in southeast Texas. To examine the study hypotheses, we conducted multinomial logistic regressions of the clinician reported data. ^ The first article examined the prevalence of subthreshold and full levels of PTSD and compared Axis I and alcohol use comorbidity rates among 1,362 OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD. Results suggest that OIF/OEF Veterans with subthreshold PTSD experience similar levels of psychological distress as those with full PTSD and highlight the need to provide timely and appropriate mental health services to individuals who may not meet the diagnostic criteria for full PTSD. ^ These results suggest that OIF/OEF Veterans of all race/ethnicities can benefit from strong social support systems. Postdeployment social support was found to be a protective factor against the development of PTSD among White, Black and Hispanic veterans while deployment unit support was a protective factor only among Black Veterans. The second article investigated the association between postdeployment social support and unit support with varying levels of PTSD by race/ethnicity among 1,115 OIF/OEF Veterans. ^ The results of this study can help to formulate treatment and interventions for OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD and social support systems.^

Prevalence and determinants of hepatitis B co-infection among a United States Veterans Administration cohort with hepatitis C

Background and aim. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection is associated with increased risk of cirrhosis, decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death. Yet, there is sparse epidemiologic data on co-infection in the United States. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and determinants of HBV co-infection in a large United States population of HCV patients. ^ Methods. The National Veterans Affairs HCV Clinical Case Registry was used to identify patients tested for HCV during 1997–2005. HCV exposure was defined as two positive HCV tests (antibody, RNA or genotype) or one positive test combined with an ICD-9 code for HCV. HCV infection was defined as only a positive HCV RNA or genotype. HBV exposure was defined as a positive test for hepatitis B core antibodies, hepatitis B surface antigen, HBV DNA, hepatitis Be antigen, or hepatitis Be antibody. HBV infection was defined as only a positive test for hepatitis B surface antigen, HBV DNA, or hepatitis Be antigen within one year before or after the HCV index date. The prevalence of exposure to HBV in patients with HCV exposure and the prevalence of HBV infection in patients with HCV infection were determined. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify demographic and clinical determinants of co-infection. ^ Results. Among 168,239 patients with HCV exposure, 58,415 patients had HBV exposure for a prevalence of 34.7% (95% CI 34.5–35.0). Among 102,971 patients with HCV infection, 1,431 patients had HBV co-infection for a prevalence of 1.4% (95% CI 1.3–1.5). The independent determinants for an increased risk of HBV co-infection were male sex, positive HIV status, a history of hemophilia, sickle cell anemia or thalassemia, history of blood transfusion, cocaine and other drug use. Age >50 years and Hispanic ethnicity were associated with a decreased risk of HBV co-infection. ^ Conclusions. This is the largest cohort study in the United States on the prevalence of HBV co-infection. Among veterans with HCV, exposure to HBV is common (∼35%), but HBV co-infection is relatively low (1.4%). There is an increased risk of co-infection with younger age, male sex, HIV, and drug use, with decreased risk in Hispanics.^

Treatment modalities of female Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring Freedom Veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder: A systematic review of the literature

Objective. To review professional literature regarding treatment modalities of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) amongst female Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) veterans, to assess the efficacy of these treatment options, and to summarize implications of the findings from this literature. Design. Systematic review of published literature. Data sources. Medline, Pubmed, Psycinfo. Review Methods. Articles selected for the literature review pertain to the treatment options of female OIF or OEF veterans who have a diagnosis of PTSD. In addition, other relevant articles, such as articles that discuss the prevalence of the problem, access to care, and similar treatment modalities for PTSD in other war settings, were selected for background information for the review. Results. The search strategy identified 1,305 potential journal articles, taken from thorough searches in Medline, Pubmed, and Psycinfo. These articles were then imported into Refworks. Following final screening, there were 18 articles included in the systematic review and 28 articles used as background information. The remaining articles were excluded following screening of abstract and/or full text of articles. Treatment modalities presented in these trials include: Exposure Therapy (average of 68% reduction in PTSD symptoms), Imagery Rehearsal Therapy (23% reduction), Body-Oriented Therapy (57% reduction), Electroconvulsive Therapy (35% reduction), Holographic Reprocessing (47% reduction), a self-defense training program (13% reduction), Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (65% reduction) and a variety of pharmacotherapies (antipsychotics at 81% reduction, sympatholytic drug at 100% reduction). Outcomes of the studies included in this systematic review were measured by using personal assessment of whether there was a reduction in symptoms of PTSD, based on the results in each study. Conclusion. Overall, all of the treatment modalities investigated in the systematic review proved to be somewhat effective in relieving the burden of symptoms of PTSD amongst female veterans of OIF/OEF. In addition to pharmacotherapy, which had the highest reduction in PTSD symptoms, both the Exposure Therapy and the Cognitive Behavioral Therapy techniques proved to have the most positive results. As all of the therapies had a positive effect on this population, to some degree, a study needs to be done in the future to compare and contrast the efficacy of each therapy intervention when applied to a standardized population.^

Epidemiology of Acute Lung Injury and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in children in Vietnam

Acute Lung Injury (ALI) and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) are life- threatening disorders that can result from many severe conditions and diseases. Since the American European Consensus Conference established the internationally accepted definition of ALI and ARDS, the epidemiology of pediatric ALI/ARDS has been described in some developed countries. In the developing world, however, there are very few data available regarding the burden, etiologies, management, outcome, and factors associated with outcomes of ALI/ARDS in children. ^ Therefore, we conducted this observational, clinical study to estimate the prevalence and case mortality rate of ALI/ARDS among a cohort of patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the National Hospital of Pediatrics in Hanoi, the largest children's hospital in Vietnam. Etiologies and predisposing factors, and management strategies for pediatric ALI/ARDS were described. In addition, we determined the prevalence of HIV infection among children with ALI/ARDS in Vietnam. We also identified the causes of mortality and predictors of mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation of children with ALI/ARDS. ^ A total of 1,051 patients consecutively admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2011 to January 2012 were screened daily for development of ALI/ARDS using the American-European Consensus Conference Guidelines. All identified patients with ALI/ARDS were followed until hospital discharge or death in the hospital. Patients' demographic and clinical data were collected. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to identify independent predictors of mortality and other adverse outcome of ALI/ARDS. ^ Prevalence of ALI and ARDS was 9.6% (95% confidence interval, 7.8% to 11.4%) and 8.8% (95% confidence interval, 7.0% to 10.5%) of total PICU admissions, respectively. Infectious pneumonia and sepsis were the most common causes of ALI/ARDS accounting for 60.4% and 26.7% of cases, respectively. Prevalence of HIV infection among children with ALI/ARDS was 3.0%. The case fatality rate of ALI/ARDS was 63.4% (95% confidence interval, 53.8% to 72.9%). Multiple organ failure and refractory hypoxemia were the main causes of death. Independent predictors of mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation were male gender, duration of intensive care stay prior to ALI/ARDS diagnosis, level of oxygenation defect measured by PaO2/FiO2 ratio at ALI/ARDS diagnosis, presence of non-pulmonary organ dysfunction at day one and day three after ALI/ARDS diagnosis, and presence of hospital acquired infection. ^ The results of this study demonstrated that ALI/ARDS was a common and severe condition in children in Vietnam. The level of both pulmonary and non-pulmonary organ damage influenced survival of patients with ALI/ARDS. Strategies for preventing ALI/ARDS and for clinical management of the disease are necessary to reduce the associated risks.^

Sedimentology of the Vietnam shelf

On the Vietnam Shelf more than 1000 miles of shallow high-resolution seismics were analyzed to unravel post-glacial evolution in a tropical, siliciclastic environment together with 25 sediment cores from water depths between 21 and 169 m to determine stratigraphy, distribution and style of sedimentation. Fourty-seven samples were dated with the AMS-14C technique. The shelf was grouped into three regions: a southern part, a central part, and a northern part. On the broad Southern Shelf, sedimentation is influenced by the Mekong River, which drains into the SCS in this area. Here, incised valley fills are abundant that were cut into the late Pleistocene land surface by the Paleo-Mekong River during times of sea level lowstand. Those valleys are filled with transgressive deposits. The Holocene sedimentation rate in this low gradient accommodation-dominated depositional system is in the range of 5-10 and 25-40 cm/ky at locations sheltered from currents. The Central Shelf is narrow and the sedimentary strata are conformable. Here, numerous small mountainous rivers reach the SCS and transport large amounts of detrital sediment onto the shelf. Therefore, the Holocene sedimentation rate is high with values of 50-100 cm/ky in this supply-dominated depositional system. The broad Northern Shelf in the vicinity of the Red River Delta shows, as on the Southern Shelf, incised valleys cut into the Pleistocene land surface by paleo river channels. In this accommodation-dominated shelf area, the sedimentation rate is low with values of 5-10 cm/ky. Where applicable, we assigned the sampled deposits to different paleo-facies. The latter are related to certain intervals of water depths at their time of deposition. Comparison with the sea-level curve of (Hanebuth et al., 2000, doi:10.1126/science.288.5468.1033) indicates subsidence on the Central Shelf, which is in agreement with the high sedimentation rates in this area. In contrast, data from the Northern Shelf suggest tectonic uplift that might be related to recent tectonic movements along the Ailao Shan-Red River Fault zone. Data from the Southern Shelf are generally in agreement with the sea-level curve mentioned above.

Is Group Lending A Good Enforcement Scheme for Achieving High Repayment Rates?: Evidence from Field Experiments in Vietnam

Microfinance institutions employ various kinds of incentive schemes but estimating the effect of each scheme is not easy due to endogeneity bias. We conducted field experiments in Vietnam to capture the role of joint liability, monitoring, cross-reporting, social sanctions, communication and group formation in borrowers’ repayment behavior. We find that joint liability contracts cause serious free-riding problems, inducing strategic default and lowering repayment rates. When group members observe each others’ investment returns, participants are more likely to choose strategic default. Even after introducing a cross-reporting system and/or penalties among borrowers, the default rates and the ratios of participants who chose strategic default under joint liability are still higher than those under individual lending. We also find that joint liability lending often failed to induce mutual insurance among borrowers. Those who had been helped or who had repaid a little in the previous round were more likely to default strategically and repay a little again in the current round and those who paid large amounts were always the same individuals.

Sources of Regional Income Disparity in Rural Vietnam: Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition

This paper investigates determinants of regional income disparity in rural Vietnam, with special emphasis placed on the roles of human capital and land. We apply a decomposition method, suggested by Oaxaca and Blinder. We found that returns to assets rather than endowments, especially those of human capital, are one of the leading factors to account for income differences across regions. We also found that substantial improvements of returns to human capital in the Red River delta region are a driving force to catch up with Mekong River delta region. Unexpectedly, differences in land endowment do not strongly correlate with regional income disparity because better access to land in a region was partially offset by lower returns.

Local Firms in Latecomer Developing Countries amidst China's Rise -The case of Vietnam's motorcycle industry-

This paper examines the impact of China's recent rise on the development of local firms in latecomer developing countries. Based on a detailed analysis of Vietnam's motorcycle industry, the paper argues that China's impact may go beyond what a trade analysis suggests. Indeed, China's rise induced a dynamic transformation in the structure of value chains within Vietnam's motorcycle industry, bringing about far-reaching consequences on the development and upgrading trajectories of local firms. The implications of the case study for the wider "global value chain" approach is also discussed.