Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of core and variable components of the Salmonella enterica subspecies I genome by microarray

We have performed microarray hybridization studies on 40 clinical isolates from 12 common serovars within Salmonella enterica subspecies I to identify the conserved chromosomal gene pool. We were able to separate the core invariant portion of the genome by a novel mathematical approach using a decision tree based on genes ranked by increasing variance. All genes within the core component were confirmed using available sequence and microarray information for S. enterica subspecies I strains. The majority of genes within the core component had conserved homologues in Escherichia coli K-12 strain MG1655. However, many genes present in the conserved set which were absent or highly divergent in K-12 had close homologues in pathogenic bacteria such as Shigella flexneri and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Genes within previously established virulence determinants such as SPI1 to SPI5 were conserved. In addition several genes within SPI6, all of SPI9, and three fimbrial operons (fim, bcf, and stb) were conserved within all S. enterica strains included in this study. Although many phage and insertion sequence elements were missing from the core component, approximately half the pseudogenes present in S. enterica serovar Typhi were conserved. Furthermore, approximately half the genes conserved in the core set encoded hypothetical proteins. Separation of the core and variant gene sets within S. enterica subspecies I has offered fundamental biological insight into the genetic basis of phenotypic similarity and diversity across S. enterica subspecies I and shown how the core genome of these pathogens differs from the closely related E. coli K-12 laboratory strain.

The use of principal components and univariate charts to control multivariate processes

In this article, we evaluate the performance of the T2 chart based on the principal components (PC chart) and the simultaneous univariate control charts based on the original variables (SU X̄ charts) or based on the principal components (SUPC charts). The main reason to consider the PC chart lies on the dimensionality reduction. However, depending on the disturbance and on the way the original variables are related, the chart is very slow in signaling, except when all variables are negatively correlated and the principal component is wisely selected. Comparing the SU X̄, the SUPC and the T 2 charts we conclude that the SU X̄ charts (SUPC charts) have a better overall performance when the variables are positively (negatively) correlated. We also develop the expression to obtain the power of two S 2 charts designed for monitoring the covariance matrix. These joint S2 charts are, in the majority of the cases, more efficient than the generalized variance |S| chart.

Experimental infection of commercial layers using a Salmonella enterica sorovar Gallinarum strain: Blood serum components and histopathological changes

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the blood serum components and histopathological findings of commercial layers experimentally infected with Salmonella Gallinarum (SG), the microorganism responsible for the fowl typhoid. 180 commercial layers were distributed into three groups (G): G1 and G2 received 0.2mL of inoculum containing 3.3x10 8 and 3.3x10 5 CFU of resistant SG to the nalidix acid (Nal r)/mL, respectively, directly into their crops; G3 did not receive the inoculum (control group). The birds were inoculated when they were 5 days old and the euthanasia was performed 24 hours before and after infection and 3, 5, 7 and 10 days after the administration of the inoculum. In each day of collection, blood samples were obtained for biochemical tests of the blood serum besides macroscopic and histopathological examination of the birds. Data were submitted to analysis of variance by the SAS statistical program and the means were compared by Tukeýs test (P<0,05). In the serum biochemical profile it was observed that the infection interfered in the values of total protein, albumin, calcium, phosphorus, cholesterol, triglycerides, GGT and ALT in the infected groups. The macroscopic examination showed hepatomegaly, alteration of the hepatic color and hemorrhagic spots in the kidneys of animals from G1. The histopathology showed degeneration of hepatocytes in G1 and G2 although other lesions like multifocal hepatic necrosis and inflammatory infiltrate on the liver and kidneys were restricted to G1. The alterations were more evident on G1 which received a higher concentration of bacteria/mL when compared to G2. The results showed that the correlation between biochemical alterations and macroscopic and histopathological lesions can assist the comprehension of the pathophysiology of fowl typhoid, supplying important information for the diagnosis and prognosis of this disease.

Principal components and factor analytic models for birth to mature weights in Nellore cattle

A total of 61,528 weight records from 22,246 Nellore animals born between 1984 and 2002 were used to compare different multiple-trait analysis methods for birth to mature weights. The following models were used: standard multivarite model (MV), five reduced-rank models fitting the first 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 genetic principal components, and five models using factor analysis with 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 factors. Direct additive genetic random effects and residual effects were included in all models. In addition, maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were included as random effects for birth and weaning weight. The models included contemporary group as fixed effect and age of animal at recording (except for birth weight) and age of dam at calving as linear and quadratic effects (for birth weight and weaning weight). The maternal genetic, maternal permanent environmental and residual (co)variance matrices were assumed to be full rank. According to model selection criteria, the model fitting the three first principal components (PC3) provided the best fit, without the need for factor analysis models. Similar estimates of phenotypic, direct additive and maternal genetic, maternal permanent environmental and residual (co)variances were obtained with models MV and PC3. Direct heritability ranged from 0.21 (birth weight) to 0.45 (weight at 6 years of age). The genetic and phenotypic correlations obtained with model PC3 were slightly higher than those estimated with model MV. In general, the reduced-rank model substantially decreased the number of parameters in the analyses without reducing the goodness-of-fit. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Agency and ownership are independent components of 'sensing the self' in the auditory-verbal domain

'Sensing the self' relies on the ability to distinguish self-generated from external stimuli. It requires functioning mechanisms to establish feelings of agency and ownership. Agency is defined causally, where the subjects action is followed by an effect. Ownership is defined by the features of the effect, independent from the action. In our study, we manipulated these qualities separately. 13 right-handed healthy individuals performed the experiment while 76-channel EEG was recorded. Stimuli consisted of visually presented words, read aloud by the subject. The experiment consisted of six conditions: (a) subjects saw a word, read it aloud, heard it in their own voice; (b) like a, but the word was heard in an unfamiliar voice; (c) subject heard a word in his/her own voice without speaking; (d) like c, but the word was heard in an unfamiliar voice; (e) like a, but subjects heard the word with a delay; (f) subjects read without hearing. ERPs and difference maps were computed for all conditions. Effects were analysed topographically. The N100 (86-172 ms) displayed significant main effects of agency and ownership. The topographies of the two effects shared little common variance, suggesting independent effects. Later effects (174-400 ms) of agency and ownership were topographically similar, suggesting common mechanisms. Replicating earlier studies, significant N100 suppression was observed, with a topography resembling the agency effect. 'Sensing the self' appears to recruit from at least two very distinct processes: an agency assessment that represents causality and an ownership assessment that compares stimulus features with memory content.

Forecasting Electricity Prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components.

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term. Thus, there is a need of providing methodology that is able to deal with the most important features of electricity price series, which are well known for presenting not only structure in conditional mean but also time-varying conditional variances. In this work we propose a new model, which allows to extract conditionally heteroskedastic common factors from the vector of electricity prices. These common factors are jointly estimated as well as their relationship with the original vector of series, and the dynamics affecting both their conditional mean and variance. The estimation of the model is carried out under the state-space formulation. The new model proposed is applied to extract seasonal common dynamic factors as well as common volatility factors for electricity prices and the estimation results are used to forecast electricity prices and their volatilities in the Spanish zone of the Iberian Market. Several simplified/alternative models are also considered as benchmarks to illustrate that the proposed approach is superior to all of them in terms of explanatory and predictive power.

Determining the effective dimensionality of the genetic variance-covariance matrix

Determining the dimensionality of G provides an important perspective on the genetic basis of a multivariate suite of traits. Since the introduction of Fisher's geometric model, the number of genetically independent traits underlying a set of functionally related phenotypic traits has been recognized as an important factor influencing the response to selection. Here, we show how the effective dimensionality of G can be established, using a method for the determination of the dimensionality of the effect space from a multivariate general linear model introduced by AMEMIYA (1985). We compare this approach with two other available methods, factor-analytic modeling and bootstrapping, using a half-sib experiment that estimated G for eight cuticular hydrocarbons of Drosophila serrata. In our example, eight pheromone traits were shown to be adequately represented by only two underlying genetic dimensions by Amemiya's approach and factor-analytic modeling of the covariance structure at the sire level. In, contrast, bootstrapping identified four dimensions with significant genetic variance. A simulation study indicated that while the performance of Amemiya's method was more sensitive to power constraints, it performed as well or better than factor-analytic modeling in correctly identifying the original genetic dimensions at moderate to high levels of heritability. The bootstrap approach consistently overestimated the number of dimensions in all cases and performed less well than Amemiya's method at subspace recovery.

Principal components analysis of Alzheimer’s disease based on neuropathological data: A study of 79 patients

A Principal Components Analysis of neuropathological data from 79 Alzheimer’s disease (AD) cases was performed to determine whether there was evidence for subtypes of the disease. Two principal components were extracted from the data which accounted for 72% and 12% of the total variance respectively. The results suggested that 1) AD was heterogeneous but subtypes could not be clearly defined; 2) the heterogeneity, in part, reflected disease onset; 3) familial cases did not constitute a distinct subtype of AD and 4) there were two forms of late onset AD, one of which was associated with less senile plaque and neurofibrillary tangle development but with a greater degree of brain atherosclerosis.

Statnote 9: The one-way analysis of variance (random effects model)

There is an alternative model of the 1-way ANOVA called the 'random effects' model or ‘nested’ design in which the objective is not to test specific effects but to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation that influence the measurement in space and/or time. The most important statistics from a random effects model are the components of variance which estimate the variance associated with each of the sources of variation influencing a measurement. The nested design is particularly useful in preliminary experiments designed to estimate different sources of variation and in the planning of appropriate sampling strategies.

Data analysis methods in optometry Part 8: Principal components analysis (PCA) and factor analysis (FA)

PCA/FA is a method of analyzing complex data sets in which there are no clearly defined X or Y variables. It has multiple uses including the study of the pattern of variation between individual entities such as patients with particular disorders and the detailed study of descriptive variables. In most applications, variables are related to a smaller number of ‘factors’ or PCs that account for the maximum variance in the data and hence, may explain important trends among the variables. An increasingly important application of the method is in the ‘validation’ of questionnaires that attempt to relate subjective aspects of a patients experience with more objective measures of vision.

Principal components analysis of Alzheimer's disease based on neuropathological data: a study of 79 patients

A principal components analysis was carried out on neuropathological data collected from 79 cases of Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosed in a single centre. The purpose of the study was to determine whether on neuropathological criteria there was evidence for clearly defined subtypes of the disease. Two principal components (PC1 and PC2) were extracted from the data. PC1 was considerable more important than PC2 accounting for 72% of the total variance. When plotted in relation to the first two principal components the majority of cases (65/79) were distributed in a single cluster within which subgroupings were not clearly evident. In addition, there were a number of individual, mainly early-onset cases, which were neither related to each other nor to the main cluster. The distribution of each neuropathological feature was examined in relation to PC1 and 2, Disease onset, rhe degree of gross brain atrophy, neuronal loss and the devlopment of senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) were negatively correlated with PC1. The devlopment of SP and NFT and the degree of brain athersclerosis were positively correlated with PC2. These results suggested: 1) that there were different forms of AD but no clear division of the cases into subclasses could be made based on the neuropathological criteria used; the cases showing a more continuous distribution from one form to another, 2) that disease onset was an important variable and was associated with a greater development of pathological changes, 3) familial cases were not a distinct subclass of AD; the cases being widely distributed in relation to PC1 and PC2 and 4) that there may be two forms of late-onset AD whic grade into each other, one of which was associated with less SP and NFT development but with a greater degree of brain atherosclerosis.

β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition in cognitively normal brain, dementia with Lewy bodies, and Alzheimer's disease:a study using principal components analysis

The densities of diffuse, primitive, and classic ß-amyloid (Aß) deposits were studied in the temporal lobe in cognitively normal brain, dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), familial Alzheimer’s disease (FAD), and sporadic AD (SAD). Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to determine whether there were distinct differences between groups or whether Aß pathology was more continuously distributed from group to group. Three principal components (PC) were extracted from the data accounting for 56% of the total variance. Plots of cases in relation to the PC did not result in distinct groups but suggested overlap in Aß deposition between the groups. In addition, there were linear correlations between the densities of Aß deposits and the distribution of the cases along the PC in specific brain regions suggesting continuous variation from group to group. PC1 was associated with the degree of maturation of Aß deposits, PC2 with differences between FAD and SAD, and PC3 with the degree of spread of Aß pathology into the hippocampus. Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype was not associated with variation in Aß deposition between cases. PCA may be a useful method of studying the pathological interface between closely related neurodegenerative disorders.

Experiments in time:exploring the components of motor timing behaviour in dyslexia

This investigation aimed to pinpoint the elements of motor timing control that are responsible for the increased variability commonly found in children with developmental dyslexia on paced or unpaced motor timing tasks (Chapter 3). Such temporal processing abilities are thought to be important for developing the appropriate phonological representations required for the development of literacy skills. Similar temporal processing difficulties arise in other developmental disorders such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Motor timing behaviour in developmental populations was examined in the context of models of typical human timing behaviour, in particular the Wing-Kristofferson model, allowing estimation of the contribution of different timing control systems, namely timekeeper and implementation systems (Chapter 2 and Methods Chapters 4 and 5). Research examining timing in populations with dyslexia and ADHD has been inconsistent in the application of stimulus parameters and so the first investigation compared motor timing behaviour across different stimulus conditions (Chapter 6). The results question the suitability of visual timing tasks which produced greater performance variability than auditory or bimodal tasks. Following an examination of the validity of the Wing-Kristofferson model (Chapter 7) the model was applied to time series data from an auditory timing task completed by children with reading difficulties and matched control groups (Chapter 8). Expected group differences in timing performance were not found, however, associations between performance and measures of literacy and attention were present. Results also indicated that measures of attention and literacy dissociated in their relationships with components of timing, with literacy ability being correlated with timekeeper variance and attentional control with implementation variance. It is proposed that these timing deficits associated with reading difficulties are attributable to central timekeeping processes and so the contribution of error correction to timing performance was also investigated (Chapter 9). Children with lower scores on measures of literacy and attention were found to have a slower or failed correction response to phase errors in timing behaviour. Results from the series of studies suggest that the motor timing difficulty in poor reading children may stem from failures in the judgement of synchrony due to greater tolerance of uncertainty in the temporal processing system.