The determinants of local population growth: a study of Oxfordshire in the nineteenth century

This paper presents a new econometric model for analysing population growth at the village and town level. It develops and applies a theory of the equilibrium distribution of population over space. The theory emphasises geographical fundamentals, such as rivers as transport corridors, and soil types that govern agricultural specialisation; also institutional factors such as town government, market charters and the concentration of land ownership. Nineteenth century Oxfordshire is used as a case study, but the method can also be applied at a multi-county and national level. The results show that the development of railways in nineteenth-century Oxfordshire accelerated a long-term shake-out in the market system, whereby rural markets disappeared and urban markets grew. This shake-out had significant implications for population growth at the local level.

Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

Sustaining growth and profits in a rapidly changing world - a Chinese perspective

The aim of this paper is to stimulate discussion about how Chinese construction and professional service companies can best equip themselves and grow sustainably and profitably in a rapidly changing world. It identifies some of the issues and risks faced by Chinese construction and professional service companies operating domestically and overseas. China has experienced a period of rapid economic growth which is also reflected in the annual construction output. China’s population is the largest in the world, but the demographic profile is changing with an ageing population and a changing dependency ratio. The population is urbanising at a fast rate, putting pressure on housing, and infrastructure. The government must plan for the future and the construction sector must be involved in that planning. The paper considers the drivers shaping China’s construction market, how companies are responding by embracing change and internationalising by seeking to exploit their skills overseas. The drivers are globalisation, urbanisation, demographic change, sustainability, safety and health, and the evolution of professional services as a core part of construction activity. Clients/owners are driving change by demanding more certainty and more sustainable projects.

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.

Atmospheric electric field measurements in urban environment and the pollutant aerosol weekly dependence

The weekly dependence of pollutant aerosols in the urban environment of Lisbon (Portugal) is inferred from the records of atmospheric electric field at Portela meteorological station (38°47′N,9°08′W). Measurements were made with a Bendorf electrograph. The data set exists from 1955 to 1990, but due to the contaminating effect of the radioactive fallout during 1960 and 1970s, only the period between 1980 and 1990 is considered here. Using a relative difference method a weekly dependence of the atmospheric electric field is found in these records, which shows an increasing trend between 1980 and 1990. This is consistent with a growth of population in the Lisbon metropolitan area and consequently urban activity, mainly traffic. Complementarily, using a Lomb–Scargle periodogram technique the presence of a daily and weekly cycle is also found. Moreover, to follow the evolution of theses cycles, in the period considered, a simple representation in a colour surface plot representation of the annual periodograms is presented. Further, a noise analysis of the periodograms is made, which validates the results found. Two datasets were considered: all days in the period, and fair-weather days only.

Observations of urban boundary layer structure during a strong urban heat island event

It has long been known that the urban surface energy balance is different to that of a rural surface, and that heating of the urban surface after sunset gives rise to the Urban Heat Island (UHI). Less well known is how flow and turbulence structure above the urban surface are changed during different phases of the urban boundary layer (UBL). This paper presents new observations above both an urban and rural surface and investigates how much UBL structure deviates from classical behaviour. A 5-day, low wind, cloudless, high pressure period over London, UK, was chosen for analysis, during which there was a strong UHI. Boundary layer evolution for both sites was determined by the diurnal cycle in sensible heat flux, with an extended decay period of approximately 4 h for the convective UBL. This is referred to as the “Urban Convective Island” as the surrounding rural area was already stable at this time. Mixing height magnitude depended on the combination of regional temperature profiles and surface temperature. Given the daytime UHI intensity of 1.5∘C, combined with multiple inversions in the temperature profile, urban and rural mixing heights underwent opposite trends over the period, resulting in a factor of three height difference by the fifth day. Nocturnal jets undergoing inertial oscillations were observed aloft in the urban wind profile as soon as the rural boundary layer became stable: clear jet maxima over the urban surface only emerged once the UBL had become stable. This was due to mixing during the Urban Convective Island reducing shear. Analysis of turbulent moments (variance, skewness and kurtosis) showed “upside-down” boundary layer characteristics on some mornings during initial rapid growth of the convective UBL. During the “Urban Convective Island” phase, turbulence structure still resembled a classical convective boundary layer but with some influence from shear aloft, depending on jet strength. These results demonstrate that appropriate choice of Doppler lidar scan patterns can give detailed profiles of UBL flow. Insights drawn from the observations have implications for accuracy of boundary conditions when simulating urban flow and dispersion, as the UBL is clearly the result of processes driven not only by local surface conditions but also regional atmospheric structure.

Gross direct and embodied carbon sinks for urban inventories

Cities and urban regions are undertaking efforts to quantify greenhouse (GHG) emissions from their jurisdictional boundaries. Although inventorying methodologies are beginning to standardize for GHG sources, carbon sequestration is generally not quantified. This article describes the methodology and quantification of gross urban carbon sinks. Sinks are categorized into direct and embodied sinks. Direct sinks generally incorporate natural process, such as humification in soils and photosynthetic biomass growth (in urban trees, perennial crops, and regional forests). Embodied sinks include activities associated with consumptive behavior that result in the import and/or storage of carbon, such as landfilling of waste, concrete construction, and utilization of durable wood products. Using methodologies based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006 guidelines (for direct sinks) and peer-reviewed literature (for embodied sinks), carbon sequestration for 2005 is calculated for the Greater Toronto Area. Direct sinks are found to be 317 kilotons of carbon (kt C), and are dominated by regional forest biomass. Embodied sinks are calculated to be 234 kt C based on one year's consumption, though a complete life cycle accounting of emissions would likely transform this sum from a carbon sink to a source. There is considerable uncertainty associated with the methodologies used, which could be addressed with city-specific stock-change measurements. Further options for enhancing carbon sink capacity within urban environments are explored, such as urban biomass growth and carbon capture and storage.

Dark-induced hormone changes coincide with the resumption of light-inhibited shoot growth in Catasetum fimbriatum (Orchidaceae)

Catasetum fimbriatum plants cultivated in the absence of light exhibit continuous shoot growth leading to the formation of nodes and internodes. On the other hand, when these plants are incubated in the presence of light, shoot longitudinal growth is inhibited and pseudobulbs develop just below the shoot apical meristem. These facts provide evidence of a possible influence of light on mitotic cell division in the shoot apex as well as on pseudobulb initiation. The effects of light and dark on the interruption and/or maintenance of shoot apex mitotic activity and the subsequent formation of pseudobulbs in the sub-meristematic regions were investigated by means of histological and hormonal studies. The interruption of shoot apex development occurred around the 150th d of light incubation and seems to have resulted from the establishment of a strong storage sink in the region of the future pseudobulb, in detriment to the continuous activity of the shoot apical meristem. The reduced total cytokinins/IAA ratio in the apex, mainly due to high levels of IAA, could be a key factor in the interruption of cell divisions. Transfer to the dark brings about the resumption of shoot apex development of plants through the re-entrance of cells in the cell cycle which coincides with a significant increase in the total cytokinins/IAA ratio. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A Study on China's Income Inequality and the Relationship with Economic Growth

The purpose of this paper is to study China’s income inequality under rapid economic growth.Does the relationship between economic growth and income inequality in China follow theKuznets hypothesis? What is the main cause and trend of China’s income inequality? We usedata which covers the period 1980-2005 to analyze the overall inequality, and data coveringthe period 1980-2002 to analyze the inequality inside rural and urban areas. The derivedresults doubt the validity of Kuznets hypothesis on explaining the relationship betweeneconomic growth and income inequality in China. Also we derive the trend of China’sincreased income inequality and find that the urban-rural income disparity is the main causeof China’s income inequality.

Education and Earnings for Poverty Reduction : Short-Term Evidence of Pro-Poor Growth from the Mexican Oportunidades Program

Education, as an indispensable component of human capital, has been acknowledged to play a critical role in economic growth, which is theoretically elaborated by human capital theory and empirically confirmed by evidence from different parts of the world. The educational impact on growth is especially valuable and meaningful when it is for the sake of poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth. The paper re-explores the precious link between human capital development and poverty reduction by investigating the causal effect of education accumulation on earnings enhancement for anti-poverty and pro-poor growth. The analysis takes the evidence from a well-known conditional cash transfer (CCT) program — Oportunidades in Mexico. Aiming at alleviating poverty and promoting a better future by investing in human capital for children and youth in poverty, this CCT program has been recognized producing significant outcomes. The study investigates a short-term impact of education on earnings of the economically disadvantaged youth, taking the data of both the program’s treated and untreated youth from urban areas in Mexico from 2002 to 2004. Two econometric techniques, i.e. difference-in-differences and difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach are applied for estimation. The empirical analysis first identifies that youth who under the program’s schooling intervention possess an advantage in educational attainment over their non-intervention peers; with this identification of education discrepancy as a prerequisite, further results then present that earnings of the education advantaged youth increase at a higher rate about 20 percent than earnings of their education disadvantaged peers over the two years. This result indicates a confirmation that education accumulation for the economically disadvantaged young has a positive impact on their earnings enhancement and thus inferring a contribution to poverty reduction and pro-poorness of growth.

Voices of the Poor: Poverty and Growth in Albania

This paper uses three waves of panel surveys at the household level to study growth and poverty in Albania over the period 2002-2004. It attempts to answer two main questions. The first question is directed at finding the micro determinants of growth and aims to expose the obstacles households face to improve their economic situation. The main focus of the analysis is to investigate the importance of health, education, and infrastructure indicators for income growth. The second question asks whether growth in Albania during the period 2002-2004 has been pro-poor. I find that there is some evidence for a convergence of incomes and a pro-poor growth, which has led to a substantial decrease in the number of people living under the poverty line. I also find that infrastructure has not been an important determinant for income mobility, and neither has health. Only the higher education of poor urban households seems to have affected prospects for growing out of poverty, and unexpectedly, the relationship is negative.

Dreaming up the right career: an exploratory study of the career aspirations of low-income adolescents living in urban São Paulo

No Brasil, os jovens de baixa renda estão propensos ao desemprego, o que é particularmente problemático em uma economia emergente onde a desigualdade de renda é relativamente alta, e onde o desenvolvimento socioeconômico futuro pode depender do crescimento e da estabilidade de uma classe média já vulnerável. Além disso, o desemprego entre os jovens, especialmente em cidades urbanas, está associado a elevada incidência de violência, comportamento ilegal, aumento da desigualdade e instabilidade sociopolítica. Este estudo complementa tentativas existentes de promover as perspectivas de emprego da juventude brasileira, investigando as aspirações profissionais de 25 adolescentes que vivem em comunidades de baixa renda na zona urbana de São Paulo. A pesquisa foi realizada através de grupos de foco durante o período de quatro encontros nas comunidades paulistanas de Vila Albertina, Heliópolis, Vila Prudente e Vila Nova Esperança. Os resultados da pesquisa repetem, em grande parte, o conhecimento existente que diz respeito a adolescentes; eles confirmam o papel importante que o mérito individual, o microambiente e os modelos exemplares (isto é, familiares, colegas e educadores locais) têm de moldar e possibilitar (ou impedir) os planos de carreira de jovens adultos, e destacam a flexibilidade e a diversidade de interesses profissionais nesta faixa etária. Ademais, os resultados revelam atitudes paradoxais face às comunidades de baixa renda em São Paulo. Todos os participantes pareciam empoderados por elementos dentro de seu microambiente, exibiam sentimentos de orgulho e que faziam parte de sua comunidade; porém, muitos pareciam perturbados pela maneira como pessoas de fora estereotipam ou estigmatizam os moradores da "favela". Ao todo, o estudo destaca tendências que sustentam razões para maiores investimentos no desenvolvimento profissional dos jovens de baixa renda. Na qualidade de um ecossistema com potencial para desenvolvimento socioeconômico, as comunidades de baixa renda podem constituir uma fonte rica não apenas de recursos humanos, mas também de oportunidades comerciais e empregos.

Human growth, biological maturation, motor performance and contextual factors in Madeira children

The central aims of this study were: (1) to construct age- and gender-specific percentiles for motor coordination (MC), (2) to analyze the change, stability, and prediction of MC, (3) to investigate the relationship between motor performance and body fatness, and (4) to evaluate the relationships between skeletal maturation and fundamental motor skills (FMS) and MC. The data collected was from the ‘Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study’ and from the ‘Madeira Child Growth Study’. In these studies, MC, FMS, skeletal age, growth characteristics, motor performance, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and geographical area were assessed/measured. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, mixed between-within subjects ANOVA, multilevel models, and hierarchical regression (blocks) were some of the statistical procedures used in the analyses. Scores on walking backwards and moving sideways improved with age. It was also found that boys performed better than girls on moving sideways. Normal-weight children outperformed obese peers in almost all gross MC tests. Inter-age correlations were calculated to be between 0.15 and 0.60. Age was associated with a better performance in catching, scramble, speed run, standing long jump, balance, and tennis ball throwing. Body mass index was positively associated with scramble and speed run, and negatively related to the standing long jump. Physical activity was negatively associated with scramble. Semi-urban children displayed better catching skills relative to their urban peers. The standardized residual of skeletal age on chronological age (SAsr) and its interaction with stature and/or body mass accounted for the maximum of 7.0% of variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se. SAsr alone accounted for a maximum of 9.0% variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se and interactions between SAsr and body size. This study demonstrates the need to promote FMS, MC, motor performance, and physical activity in children.

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Morphological and histochemical study of the myotomal muscle in pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus Holmberg, 1887) during the initial growth phases

Morphological and histochemical methods were used to evaluate the myotomal muscle characteristics of pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus) from hatching to 40 days old. During the larval period, the musculature consisted predominantly of white muscle. White and red muscle mass increased at 10, 20, 30 and 40 days after hatching. The larvae had round muscle fibers with a moderate degree of maturation and central nuclei. In subsequent phases, small and immature fibers were visible near larger and more differentiated fibers. Undifferentiated cells or presumptive myoblasts located in embryogenic zones were visible in the dorsal and ventral regions, and were more evident at 30 and 40 days. The red muscle fibers located in the subdermal region, had oxidative metabolism and slow contraction, whereas the more predominant white muscle fibers had glycolytic metabolism and fast contraction. Our findings indicate that during the initial phases, myotomal muscle growth in pacu occurs by both, muscle fiber hypertrophy and hyperplasia. The analysis of frequency of red and white muscle fibers shows that hyperplastic growth is intense in this period. As the growth rate in adult fish is related to the number of muscle fibers in young fish, extrinsic factors could change the muscle fiber phenotype and influence their ultimate size.