908 resultados para Uncertainty propagation


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A damage model for the simulation of delamination propagation under high-cycle fatigue loading is proposed. The basis for the formulation is a cohesive law that links fracture and damage mechanics to establish the evolution of the damage variable in terms of the crack growth rate dA/dN. The damage state is obtained as a function of the loading conditions as well as the experimentally-determined coefficients of the Paris Law crack propagation rates for the material. It is shown that by using the constitutive fatigue damage model in a structural analysis, experimental results can be reproduced without the need of additional model-specific curve-fitting parameters

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We present new analytical tools able to predict the averaged behavior of fronts spreading through self-similar spatial systems starting from reaction-diffusion equations. The averaged speed for these fronts is predicted and compared with the predictions from a more general equation (proposed in a previous work of ours) and simulations. We focus here on two fractals, the Sierpinski gasket (SG) and the Koch curve (KC), for two reasons, i.e. i) they are widely known structures and ii) they are deterministic fractals, so the analytical study of them turns out to be more intuitive. These structures, despite their simplicity, let us observe several characteristics of fractal fronts. Finally, we discuss the usefulness and limitations of our approa

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It is shown that Lotka-Volterra interaction terms are not appropriate to describe vertical cultural transmission. Appropriate interaction terms are derived and used to compute the effect of vertical cultural transmission on demic front propagation. They are also applied to a specific example, the Neolithic transition in Europe. In this example, it is found that the effect of vertical cultural transmission can be important (about 30%). On the other hand, simple models based on differential equations can lead to large errors (above 50%). Further physical, biophysical, and cross-disciplinary applications are outlined

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The present thesis in focused on the minimization of experimental efforts for the prediction of pollutant propagation in rivers by mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use. Mathematical modelling is based on the well known advection-dispersion equation, while the knowledge re-use approach employs the methods of case based reasoning, graphical analysis and text mining. The thesis contribution to the pollutant transport research field consists of: (1) analytical and numerical models for pollutant transport prediction; (2) two novel techniques which enable the use of variable parameters along rivers in analytical models; (3) models for the estimation of pollutant transport characteristic parameters (velocity, dispersion coefficient and nutrient transformation rates) as functions of water flow, channel characteristics and/or seasonality; (4) the graphical analysis method to be used for the identification of pollution sources along rivers; (5) a case based reasoning tool for the identification of crucial information related to the pollutant transport modelling; (6) and the application of a software tool for the reuse of information during pollutants transport modelling research. These support tools are applicable in the water quality research field and in practice as well, as they can be involved in multiple activities. The models are capable of predicting pollutant propagation along rivers in case of both ordinary pollution and accidents. They can also be applied for other similar rivers in modelling of pollutant transport in rivers with low availability of experimental data concerning concentration. This is because models for parameter estimation developed in the present thesis enable the calculation of transport characteristic parameters as functions of river hydraulic parameters and/or seasonality. The similarity between rivers is assessed using case based reasoning tools, and additional necessary information can be identified by using the software for the information reuse. Such systems represent support for users and open up possibilities for new modelling methods, monitoring facilities and for better river water quality management tools. They are useful also for the estimation of environmental impact of possible technological changes and can be applied in the pre-design stage or/and in the practical use of processes as well.

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Traditionally, in the cigarettes industry, the determination of ammonium ion in the mainstream smoke is performed by ion chromatography. This work studies this determination and compares the results of this technique with the use of external and internal standard calibration. A reference cigarette sample presented measurement uncertainty of 2.0 μg/cigarette and 1.5 μg/cigarette, with external and internal standard, respectively. It is observed that the greatest source of uncertainty is the bias correction factor and that it is even more significant when using external standard, confirming thus the importance of internal standardization for this correction.

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The purpose of the present study was to validate a method for organic Hg determination in sediment. The procedure for organic Hg was adapted from literature, where the organomercurial compounds were extracted with dichloromethane in acid medium and subsequent destruction of organic compounds by bromine chloride. Total Hg was performed according to 3051A USEPA methodology. Mercury quantification for both methodologies was then performed by CVAAS. Methodology validation was verified by analyzing certified reference materials for total Hg and methylmercury. The uncertainties for both methodologies were calculated. The quantification limit of 3.3 µg kg-1 was found for organic Hg by CVAAS.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of vegetative propagation through cutting technique of seven tree species with strong occurrence in the riparian forest of the Lower São Francisco River in Sergipe State, under different concentrations of indolbutiric acid at 0, 2500, and 5000 mg.L-1, for potentialization of its use in soil bioengineering technique. It was used a complete random block design with three replicates, and a total of twenty-one treatments. The evaluation period was 120 days for each species, and the data collection was made in intervals of fifteen days, in a total of eight evaluations for each species. The evaluated parameters were: Survival Rate, callus formation, and Root Dry matter Weight. Among the studied species, Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi presented the best results related to cutting technique mainly under the indolbutiric acid concentration of 2500 mg.L-1.

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Bauhinia x blakeana (B. purpurea x B. variegata) is a natural hybrid that has been cultivated in gardens, streets and parks. Due to its sterility, it must be vegetatively propagated. The objective of this work was to evaluate the viability of cuttings and grafting on its propagation. Semi-woody cuttings were collected during four seasons and treated with 0; 1,000; 2,000; and 3,000 mg L-1 of IBA. The experimental design was entirely randomized and the treatments were arranged in a 4x4 factorial scheme (four collecting times x four IBA concentrations) and five replications with 10 cuttings each, per collecting time and per IBA concentration. Characteristics of roots and shoots were evaluated after 90 days. The data means were compared by the Tukey test and submitted to the polynomial regression analysis. For the grafting experiment, B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida plants of six and 12 months were used as rootstocks and the splice graft and T-budding methods were tested. The experimental design was entirely randomized and the treatments were arranged in a 2x2x2 factorial scheme (two rootstock species x two grafting methods x two rootstock ages) and four replications with five plants each, per rootstock species, per grafting method and per rootstock age. Characteristics of shoots were evaluated after 90 days and the data means were compared by the Tukey test. B. x blakeana can be propagated by semi-woody cuttings collected in spring, without IBA application, or in summer, with the application of 3,000 mg L-1 of IBA. The tested grafting methods were not effective.

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Brazilian pine or araucaria (Araucaria angustifolia) is a coniferous tree with great economic, social and environmental importance in southern Brazil, being exploited for both wood production and for its edible pine nuts. However, no efficient cloning techniques are available and, therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of vegetative rescue methods for cuttings propagation of the species. Shoots/cuttings were generated in two ways: 26 years old trees underwent coppicing and 20 years old trees had the primary branches on the upper third of crown pruned at 2, 20 and 50 cm from the main trunk. Orthotropic shoots were rooted after application of indole-3-butyric acid (IBA) at 0, 2, 4 and 6 g.L-1. Coppicing produced 47 cuttings per plant with 90% orthotropic shoots, while pruning resulted in 182 cuttings per plant with 44% orthotropic shoots. Rooting success indexes were low with no influence of IBA, although they are slightly superior to the ones available in the literature for the species, ranging from 12 to 30% for the coppice shoots and from 0 to 28% for the branches shoots. We conclude that both vegetative rescue techniques are viable and have potentially important applications. Coppicing is recommended for the propagation aiming the production of wood, while shoots derived from the side branches of the crown are more appropriate for seeds orchards formation.

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ABSTRACTThe study was conducted with shoot tip explants of neem (Azadirachta indica A. Juss) to identify a viable regenerative process. Shoot tips were obtained from neem embryos cultured alternatingly in DKW medium supplemented with BAP and medium without hormones. Initial shoot development was influenced by cotyledon presence. Basal callus, excised from in vitro stem base, also presented organogenic potential. In some cases, plant lines, obtained from each seed, presented different characteristics. The most common characteristic observed in vitro was callus formation at the stem base. However, the rarest characteristics were stem callus formation and leaf senescence. The regenerated shoot tips were further subculture and rooted on a medium supplemented with IBA so that complete plants could be obtained. The rooted plants were transplanted to a greenhouse and successfully acclimatized. No significant differences in in vivo development were observed between neem plants from callus and from shoot tip propagation.

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A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

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Outsourcing is a common strategy for companies looking for cost savings and improvements in performance. This has been especially prevalent in logistics, where warehousing and transporting are typical targets for outsourcing. However, while the benefits from logistics outsourcing are clear on paper, there are several cases companies fail to reach these benefits. The most commonly cited reasons for this are poor information flow between the company and the third party logistics partner, and a lack of integration between the two partners. Uncertainty stems from lack of information, and it can cripple the whole outsourcing operation. This is where enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems step in, as they can have a significant role in improving the flow of information, and integration, which consequently mitigates uncertainty. The purpose of the study is to examine if ERP systems have an effect on a company's decision to outsource logistics operations. Along the rapid advancements in technology during the past decades, ERP systems have also evolved. Therefore, empirical research on the subject needs constant revision as it can quickly become outdated due to ERP systems having more advanced capabilities every year. The research was conducted using a qualitative single-case study of a Finnish manufacturing firm that had outsourced warehousing and transportation operations in the Swedish market. The empirical data was gathered with use of semi-structured interviews with three employees from the case company that were closely related to the outsourcing operation. The theoretical framework that was used to analyze the empirical data was based on Transaction Cost Economics theory. The results of the study were align with the theoretical framework, in that the ERP system of the case company was seen as an enabler for their logistics outsourcing operation. However, the full theoretical benefits from ERP systems concerning extended enterprise functionality and flexibility were not attained due to the case company having an older version of their ERP system. This emphasizes the importance of having up-to-date technology if you want to overcome the shortcomings of ERP systems in outsourcing situations.