Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming and Simulation Approach to the Development of Valid and Realistic Master Production Schedule

Master production schedule (MPS) plays an important role in an integrated production planning system. It converts the strategic planning defined in a production plan into the tactical operation execution. The MPS is also known as a tool for top management to control over manufacture resources and becomes input of the downstream planning levels such as material requirement planning (MRP) and capacity requirement planning (CRP). Hence, inappropriate decision on the MPS development may lead to infeasible execution, which ultimately causes poor delivery performance. One must ensure that the proposed MPS is valid and realistic for implementation before it is released to real manufacturing system. In practice, where production environment is stochastic in nature, the development of MPS is no longer simple task. The varying processing time, random event such as machine failure is just some of the underlying causes of uncertainty that may be hardly addressed at planning stage so that in the end the valid and realistic MPS is tough to be realized. The MPS creation problem becomes even more sophisticated as decision makers try to consider multi-objectives; minimizing inventory, maximizing customer satisfaction, and maximizing resource utilization. This study attempts to propose a methodology for MPS creation which is able to deal with those obstacles. This approach takes into account uncertainty and makes trade off among conflicting multi-objectives at the same time. It incorporates fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) and discrete event simulation (DES) for MPS development.

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

BAYESIAN PHASE I DOSE FINDING IN CANCER TRIALS

This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.

Mechanical and Chemical Stability of Injection-Molded Microcantilevers Used for Sensing

Ultraviolet-ozone treatment is used as a standard surface cleaning procedure for removal of molecular organic contamination from analytical and sensing devices. Here, it is applied for injection-molded polymer microcantilevers before characterization and sensing experiments. This article examines the effects of the surface cleaning process using commercial equipment, in particular on the performance and mechanical properties of the cantilevers. It can be shown that the first chemical aging process essentially consist of the cross linking of the polymer chains together with a physical aging of the material. For longer exposure, the expected thermo-oxidative formation of carbonyl groups sets in and an exposure dependent chemical degradation can be detected. A process time of 20 min was found suitable as a trade-off between cleaning and stability

Towards cheap, accurate polymorphism detection

Polymorphism, along with inheritance, is one of the most important features in object-oriented languages, but it is also one of the biggest obstacles to source code comprehension. Depending on the run-time type of the receiver of a message, any one of a number of possible methods may be invoked. Several algorithms for creating accurate call-graphs using static analysis already exist, however, they consume significant time and memory resources. We propose an approach that will combine static and dynamic analysis and yield the best possible precision with a minimal trade-off between used resources and accuracy.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Energy Efficient Multimedia Communications in IEEE 802.11 Networks

During the last decade wireless mobile communications have progressively become part of the people’s daily lives, leading users to expect to be “alwaysbest-connected” to the Internet, regardless of their location or time of day. This is indeed motivated by the fact that wireless access networks are increasingly ubiquitous, through different types of service providers, together with an outburst of thoroughly portable devices, namely laptops, tablets, mobile phones, among others. The “anytime and anywhere” connectivity criterion raises new challenges regarding the devices’ battery lifetime management, as energy becomes the most noteworthy restriction of the end-users’ satisfaction. This wireless access context has also stimulated the development of novel multimedia applications with high network demands, although lacking in energy-aware design. Therefore, the relationship between energy consumption and the quality of the multimedia applications perceived by end-users should be carefully investigated. This dissertation addresses energy-efficient multimedia communications in the IEEE 802.11 standard, which is the most widely used wireless access technology. It advances the literature by proposing a unique empirical assessment methodology and new power-saving algorithms, always bearing in mind the end-users’ feedback and evaluating quality perception. The new EViTEQ framework proposed in this thesis, for measuring video transmission quality and energy consumption simultaneously, in an integrated way, reveals the importance of having an empirical and high-accuracy methodology to assess the trade-off between quality and energy consumption, raised by the new end-users’ requirements. Extensive evaluations conducted with the EViTEQ framework revealed its flexibility and capability to accurately report both video transmission quality and energy consumption, as well as to be employed in rigorous investigations of network interface energy consumption patterns, regardless of the wireless access technology. Following the need to enhance the trade-off between energy consumption and application quality, this thesis proposes the Optimized Power save Algorithm for continuous Media Applications (OPAMA). By using the end-users’ feedback to establish a proper trade-off between energy consumption and application performance, OPAMA aims at enhancing the energy efficiency of end-users’ devices accessing the network through IEEE 802.11. OPAMA performance has been thoroughly analyzed within different scenarios and application types, including a simulation study and a real deployment in an Android testbed. When compared with the most popular standard power-saving mechanisms defined in the IEEE 802.11 standard, the obtained results revealed OPAMA’s capability to enhance energy efficiency, while keeping end-users’ Quality of Experience within the defined bounds. Furthermore, OPAMA was optimized to enable superior energy savings in multiple station environments, resulting in a new proposal called Enhanced Power Saving Mechanism for Multiple station Environments (OPAMA-EPS4ME). The results of this thesis highlight the relevance of having a highly accurate methodology to assess energy consumption and application quality when aiming to optimize the trade-off between energy and quality. Additionally, the obtained results based both on simulation and testbed evaluations, show clear benefits from employing userdriven power-saving techniques, such as OPAMA, instead of IEEE 802.11 standard power-saving approaches.

Unearthing the roots of degradation of Quercus pyrenaica coppices: A root-to-shoot imbalance caused by historical management?

Slow growth, branch dieback and scarce acorn yield are visible symptoms of decay in abandoned Quercus pyrenaica coppices. A hypothetical root-to-shoot (R:S) imbalance provoked by historical coppicing is investigated as the underlying driver of stand degradation. After stem genotyping, 12 stems belonging to two clones covering 81 and 16 m2 were harvested and excavated to measure above- and below-ground biomass and nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) pools. To study root system functionality, root connections and root longevity were assessed by radiocarbon analysis. Seasonality of NSC was monitored on five additional clones. NSC pools, R:S biomass ratio and fine roots-to-foliage ratio were higher in the large clone, whose centennial root system, estimated to be 550 years old, maintained large amounts of sapwood (51.8%) for NSC storage. 248 root connections were observed within the large clone, whereas the small clone showed comparatively simpler root structure (26 connections). NSC concentrations were higher in spring (before bud burst) and autumn (before leaf fall), and lower in summer (after complete leaf expansion); they were always higher in roots than in stems or twigs. The persistence of massive and highly inter-connected root systems after coppicing may lead to increasing R:S biomass ratios and root NSC pools over time. We highlight the need of surveying belowground organs to understand aboveground dynamics of Q. pyrenaica, and suggest that enhanced belowground NSC storage and consumption reflect a trade-off between clonal vegetative resilience and aboveground performance.

Are Shirking and Leisure Substitutable? An Empirical Test of Efficiency Wages Based on Urban Economic Theory

Recent theoretical work has examined the spatial distribution of unemployment using the efficiency wage model as the mechanism by which unemployment arises in the urban economy. This paper extends the standard efficiency wage model in order to allow for behavioral substitution between leisure time at home and effort at work. In equilibrium, residing at a location with a long commute affects the time available for leisure at home and therefore affects the trade-off between effort at work and risk of unemployment. This model implies an empirical relationship between expected commutes and labor market outcomes, which is tested using the Public Use Microdata sample of the 2000 U.S. Decennial Census. The empirical results suggest that efficiency wages operate primarily for blue collar workers, i.e. workers who tend to be in occupations that face higher levels of supervision. For this subset of workers, longer commutes imply higher levels of unemployment and higher wages, which are both consistent with shirking and leisure being substitutable.

Shirking, Commuting and Labor Market Outcomes

Recent theoretical work has examined the spatial distribution of unemployment using the efficiency wage model as the mechanism by which unemployment arises in the urban economy. This paper extends the standard efficiency wage model in order to allow for behavioral substitution between leisure time at home and effort at work. In equilibrium, residing at a location with a long commute affects the time available for leisure at home and therefore affects the trade-off between effort at work and risk of unemployment. This model implies an empirical relationship between expected commutes and labor market outcomes, which is tested using the metropolitan sample of the American Housing Survey. No evidence is found to suggest a consistent impact of efficiency wages on the spatial pattern of unemployment or earnings.

Comparison of compliance and immune response of drug users on the standard and accelerated hepatitis B vaccine schedules - Houston, Texas

Despite the availability of hepatitis B vaccine for over two decades, drug users and other high-risk adult populations have experienced low vaccine coverage. Poor compliance has limited efforts to reduce transmission of hepatitis B infection in this population. Evidence suggests that immunological response in drug users is impaired compared to the general population, both in terms of lower seroprotection rates and antibodies levels.^ The current study investigated the effectiveness of the multi-dose hepatitis B vaccine and compared the effect of the standard and accelerated vaccine schedules in a not-in-treatment, drug-using adult population in the city of Houston, USA.^ A population of drug-users from two communities in Houston, susceptible to hepatitis B, was sampled by outreach workers and referral methodology. Subjects were randomized either to the standard hepatitis vaccine schedule (0, 1-, 6-month) or to an accelerated schedule (0, 1-, 2-month). Antibody levels were detected through laboratory analyses at various time-points. The participants were followed for two years and seroconversion rates were calculated to determine immune response.^ A four percent difference in the overall compliance rate was observed between the standard (73%) and accelerated schedules (77%). Logistic regression analyses showed that drug users living on the streets were twice as likely to not complete all three vaccine doses (p=0.028), and current speedball use was also associated with non-completion (p=0.002). Completion of all three vaccinations in the multivariate analysis was also correlated with older age. Drug users on the accelerated schedule were 26% more likely to achieve completion, although this factor was marginally significant (p=0.085).^ Cumulative adequate protective response was gained by 65% of the HBV susceptible subgroup by 12-months and was identical for both the standard and accelerated schedules. Excess protective response (>=100 mIU/mL) occurred with greater frequency at the later period for the standard schedule (36% at 12-months compared to 14% at six months), while the greater proportion of excess protective response for the accelerated schedule occurred earlier (34% at 6 months compared to 18% at 12-months). Seroconversion at the adequate protective response level of 10 mIU/mL was reached by the accelerated schedule group at a quicker rate (62% vs. 49%), and with a higher mean titer (104.8 vs. 64.3 mIU/mL), when measured at six months. Multivariate analyses indicated a 63% increased risk of non-response for older age and confirmed the existence of an accelerating decline in immune response to vaccination manifesting after 40 years (p=0.001). Injecting more than daily was also highly associated with the risk of non-response (p=0.016).^ The substantial increase in the seroprotection rate at six months may be worth the trade-off against the faster antibody titer decrease and is recommended for enhancing compliance and seroconversion. Utilization of the accelerated schedule with the primary objective of increasing compliance and seroconversion rates during the six months after the first dose may confer early protective immunity and reduce the HBV vulnerability of drug users who continue, or have recently initiated, increased high risk drug use and sexual behaviors.^

Body mass, flipper length, oxidative balance indices and telomere length of king penguin chicks (A. patagonicus) on Possession Island

One of the reasons for animals not to grow as fast as they potentially could is that fast growth has been shown to be associated with reduced lifespan. However, we are still lacking a clear description of the reality of growth-dependent modulation of ageing mechanisms in wild animals. Using the particular growth trajectory of small king penguin chicks naturally exhibiting higher-than-normal growth rate to compensate for the winter break, we tested whether oxidative stress and telomere shortening are related to growth trajectories. Plasma antioxidant defences, oxidative damage levels and telomere length were measured at the beginning and at the end of the post-winter growth period in three groups of chicks (small chicks, which either passed away or survived the growth period, and large chicks). Small chicks that died early during the growth period had the highest level of oxidative damage and the shortest telomere lengths prior to death. Here, we show that small chicks that grew faster did it at the detriment of body maintenance mechanisms as shown by (i) higher oxidative damage and (ii) accelerated telomere loss. Our study provides the first evidence for a mechanistic link between growth and ageing rates under natural conditions.

Biomineralization changes with food supply confer juvenile scallops (Argopecten purpuratus) resistance to ocean acidification

Future ocean acidification (OA) will affect physiological traits of marine species, with calcifying species being particularly vulnerable. As OA entails high energy demands, particularly during the rapid juvenile growth phase, food supply may play a key role in the response of marine organisms to OA. We experimentally evaluated the role of food supply in modulating physiological responses and biomineralization processes in juveniles of the Chilean scallop, Argopecten purpuratus, that were exposed to control (pH 8.0) and low pH (pH 7.6) conditions using three food supply treatments (high, intermediate, and low). We found that pH and food levels had additive effects on the physiological response of the juvenile scallops. Metabolic rates, shell growth, net calcification, and ingestion rates increased significantly at low pH conditions, independent of food. These physiological responses increased significantly in organisms exposed to intermediate and high levels of food supply. Hence, food supply seems to play a major role modulating organismal response by providing the energetic means to bolster the physiological response of OA stress. On the contrary, the relative expression of chitin synthase, a functional molecule for biomineralization, increased significantly in scallops exposed to low food supply and low pH, which resulted in a thicker periostracum enriched with chitin polysaccharides. Under reduced food and low pH conditions, the adaptive organismal response was to trade-off growth for the expression of biomineralization molecules and altering of the organic composition of shell periostracum, suggesting that the future performance of these calcifiers will depend on the trajectories of both OA and food supply. Thus, incorporating a suite of traits and multiple stressors in future studies of the adaptive organismal response may provide key insights on OA impacts on marine calcifiers.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and physiological response of the Mediterranean crustose coralline alga Lithophyllum cabiochae to elevated pCO2 and temperature

The response of respiration, photosynthesis, and calcification to elevated pCO2 and temperature was investigated in isolation and in combination in the Mediterranean crustose coralline alga Lithophyllum cabiochae. Algae were maintained in aquaria during 1 year at near-ambient conditions of irradiance, at ambient or elevated temperature (+3 °C), and at ambient (ca. 400 µatm) or elevated pCO2 (ca. 700 µatm). Respiration, photosynthesis, and net calcification showed a strong seasonal pattern following the seasonal variations of temperature and irradiance, with higher rates in summer than in winter. Respiration was unaffected by pCO2 but showed a general trend of increase at elevated temperature at all seasons, except in summer under elevated pCO2. Conversely, photosynthesis was strongly affected by pCO2 with a decline under elevated pCO2 in summer, autumn, and winter. In particular, photosynthetic efficiency was reduced under elevated pCO2. Net calcification showed different responses depending on the season. In summer, net calcification increased with rising temperature under ambient pCO2 but decreased with rising temperature under elevated pCO2. Surprisingly, the highest rates in summer were found under elevated pCO2 and ambient temperature. In autumn, winter, and spring, net calcification exhibited a positive or no response at elevated temperature but was unaffected by pCO2. The rate of calcification of L. cabiochae was thus maintained or even enhanced under increased pCO2. However, there is likely a trade-off with other physiological processes. For example, photosynthesis declines in response to increased pCO2 under ambient irradiance. The present study reports only on the physiological response of healthy specimens to ocean warming and acidification, however, these environmental changes may affect the vulnerability of coralline algae to other stresses such as pathogens and necroses that can cause major dissolution, which would have critical consequence for the sustainability of coralligenous habitats and the budgets of carbon and calcium carbonate in coastal Mediterranean ecosystems.