Bayesian precalibration of a large stochastic microsimulation model

Calibration of stochastic traffic microsimulation models is a challenging task. This paper proposes a fast iterative probabilistic precalibration framework and demonstrates how it can be successfully applied to a real-world traffic simulation model of a section of the M40 motorway and its surrounding area in the U.K. The efficiency of the method stems from the use of emulators of the stochastic microsimulator, which provides fast surrogates of the traffic model. The use of emulators minimizes the number of microsimulator runs required, and the emulators' probabilistic construction allows for the consideration of the extra uncertainty introduced by the approximation. It is shown that automatic precalibration of this real-world microsimulator, using turn-count observational data, is possible, considering all parameters at once, and that this precalibrated microsimulator improves on the fit to observations compared with the traditional expertly tuned microsimulation. © 2000-2011 IEEE.

Self-explanation in adaptive systems based on runtime goal-based models

The behaviour of self adaptive systems can be emergent, which means that the system’s behaviour may be seen as unexpected by its customers and its developers. Therefore, a self-adaptive system needs to garner confidence in its customers and it also needs to resolve any surprise on the part of the developer during testing and maintenance. We believe that these two functions can only be achieved if a self-adaptive system is also capable of self-explanation. We argue a self-adaptive system’s behaviour needs to be explained in terms of satisfaction of its requirements. Since self-adaptive system requirements may themselves be emergent, we propose the use of goal-based requirements models at runtime to offer self-explanation of how a system is meeting its requirements. We demonstrate the analysis of run-time requirements models to yield a self-explanation codified in a domain specific language, and discuss possible future work.

Revisiting goal-oriented models for self-aware systems-of-systems

Systems-of-systems (SoS) are systems resulted from the interaction among other independent constituent systems that collaborate to offer new functionalities towards accomplishing global missions. Each of these constituent systems accomplishes its individual missions and is able to contribute to the achievement of the global missions of the SoS, both being viewed as a set of associated goals. In the perspective of self-aware systems, SoS need to exhibit goal-awareness, i.e., They need to be aware of their own goals and of how their constituent systems contribute to their accomplishment. In this paper, we revisit goal-oriented concepts aiming at identifying and modeling goals at both SoS level and the constituent systems level. Moreover, we take advantage of such goal-oriented models to express the relationship among goals at these levels as well as to define how each constituent system can contribute to the accomplishment of global goals of an SoS. In addition, we shed light on important issues related to goal modeling in self-aware SoS to be addressed in future research.

Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil organic carbon under Miscanthus and short rotation coppice-willow crops in Britain

Acknowledgements This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Carbon Inputs from Miscanthus Displace Older Soil Organic Carbon Without Inducing Priming Soil Carbon Sequestration Below Miscanthus

Peer reviewed

Scientific case for avoiding dangerous climate change to protect young people and nature

28 pages, 6 figures; version submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Sustainable use of organic resources for bioenergy, food and water provision in rural Sub-Saharan Africa

Acknowledgements We are grateful to the United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council Nexus Network for funding this work.

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Date of Acceptance: 05/06/2015 This research was made possible through funding provided by the Leverhulme Trust, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project CGL2010–20672) and Xunta de Galicia (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010–3264) funded by the Spanish Government. Kirsty Golding, Andy McMullen, and Ian Simpson are thanked for their assistance with fieldwork. Alison Sandison produced the maps. Pete Langdon and two anonymous referees are thanked for comments that helped to improve the paper.

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)

Size and variability of crop productivity both impacted by CO2 enrichment and warming-A case study of 4 year field experiment in a Chinese paddy

Acknowledgement Construction and maintenance of the experiment system was funded by the state Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Mitigation” under a grant number 200903003. This work was financially supported by Ministry of Science and Technology of China under a grant number 2012BAC19B01 and Department of Science and Technology of Jiangsu province under a grant number BK20150684. The international cooperation was funded by “111 project” (B12009) and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). The contribution of Pete Smith was funded by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) under UK-China Sustainable Agriculture Innovation Network (SAIN). The contribution of Timothy Filley was also funded by the state foreign expert agency under a project of Foreign High-end expert program. The authors thank Jiangsu Tianniang Agro-Technology Company Ltd. for the assistance in maintaining the experiment system.

Scientific case for avoiding dangerous climate change to protect young people and nature

28 pages, 6 figures; version submitted to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Sustainable use of organic resources for bioenergy, food and water provision in rural Sub-Saharan Africa

Acknowledgements We are grateful to the United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council Nexus Network for funding this work.

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Date of Acceptance: 05/06/2015 This research was made possible through funding provided by the Leverhulme Trust, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project CGL2010–20672) and Xunta de Galicia (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010–3264) funded by the Spanish Government. Kirsty Golding, Andy McMullen, and Ian Simpson are thanked for their assistance with fieldwork. Alison Sandison produced the maps. Pete Langdon and two anonymous referees are thanked for comments that helped to improve the paper.

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)