875 resultados para Technological forecasting
Resumo:
Despite a massive expansion of education in Portugal, since the 1970’s, educational attainment of the adult population in the country remains low. The numbers of working-age people in some form of continuing education are among the lowest, according to the OECD and EU-27 statistics. Technological Schools(TS), initially created in the 1990’s, under the umbrella of the Ministry of Economy in partnership with industry and industrial associations, aimed to prepare qualified staff for industries and services in the country, particularly in the engineering sector, through the provision of post secondary non-university programmes of studies, the CET (Technological Specialization Courses). Successful CET students are awarded a DET(Diploma of Technological Specialization), which corresponds to Vocational Qualification level IV of the EU, according to the latest alteration (2005) of the Education Systems Act (introduced in 1986). In this, CET’s are also clearly defined as one of the routes for access to Higher Education (HE), in Portugal. The PRILHE (Promoting Reflective and Independent Learning in Higher Education) multinational project, funded by the European Socrates Grundtvig Programme, aimed to identify the learning processes which enable adult students in higher education to become autonomous reflective learners and search best practices to support these learning processes. During this research, both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to determine how students organise their studies and develop their learning skills. The Portuguese partner in the project’ consortium used a two case studies approach, one with students of Higher Education Institutions and other with students of TS. This paper only applies to students of TS, as these have a predominant bias towards engineering. Results show that student motivation and professional teaching support contribute equally to the development of an autonomous and reflective approach to learning in adult students; this is essential for success in a knowledge economy, where lifelong learning is the key to continuous employment.
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The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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In recent years, power systems have experienced many changes in their paradigm. The introduction of new players in the management of distributed generation leads to the decentralization of control and decision-making, so that each player is able to play in the market environment. In the new context, it will be very relevant that aggregator players allow midsize, small and micro players to act in a competitive environment. In order to achieve their objectives, virtual power players and single players are required to optimize their energy resource management process. To achieve this, it is essential to have financial resources capable of providing access to appropriate decision support tools. As small players have difficulties in having access to such tools, it is necessary that these players can benefit from alternative methodologies to support their decisions. This paper presents a methodology, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and intended to support smaller players. In this case the present methodology uses a training set that is created using energy resource scheduling solutions obtained using a mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) approach as the reference optimization methodology. The trained network is used to obtain locational marginal prices in a distribution network. The main goal of the paper is to verify the accuracy of the ANN based approach. Moreover, the use of a single ANN is compared with the use of two or more ANN to forecast the locational marginal price.
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In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.
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Identity is traditionally defined as an emission concept [1]. Yet, some research points out that there are external factors that can influence it [2]; [3]; [4]. This subject is even more relevant if one considers corporate brands. According to Aaker [5] the number, the power and the credibility of corporate associations are bigger in the case of corporate brands. Literature recognizes the influence of relationships between companies in identity management. Yet, given the increasingly important role of corporate brands, it is surprising that to date no attempt to evaluate that influence has been made in the management of corporate brand identity. Also Keller and Lehman [6] highlight relationships and costumer experience as two areas requiring more investigation. In line with this, the authors intend to develop an empirical research in order to evaluate the influence of relationships between brands in the identity of corporate brand from an internal perspective by interviewing internal stakeholders (brand managers and internal clients). This paper is organized by main contents: theoretical background, research methodology, data analysis and conclusions and finally cues to future investigation.
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Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are a low-tropospheric wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the sea. This contrast between the cold ocean and the warm land in the summer is intensified by the impact of the coastal parallel winds on the ocean generating upwelling currents, sharpening the temperature gradient close to the coast and giving rise to strong baroclinic structures at the coast. During summertime, the Iberian Peninsula is often under the effect of the Azores High and of a thermal low pressure system inland, leading to a seasonal wind, in the west coast, called the Nortada (northerly wind). This study presents a regional climatology of the CLLJ off the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a 9km resolution downscaling dataset, produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, forced by 19 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2007). The simulation results show that the jet hourly frequency of occurrence in the summer is above 30% and decreases to about 10% during spring and autumn. The monthly frequencies of occurrence can reach higher values, around 40% in summer months, and reveal large inter-annual variability in all three seasons. In the summer, at a daily base, the CLLJ is present in almost 70% of the days. The CLLJ wind direction is mostly from north-northeasterly and occurs more persistently in three areas where the interaction of the jet flow with local capes and headlands is more pronounced. The coastal jets in this area occur at heights between 300 and 400 m, and its speed has a mean around 15 m/s, reaching maximum speeds of 25 m/s.
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Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.
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This paper presents the creation and development of technological schools directly linked to the business community and to higher public education. Establishing themselves as the key interface between the two sectors they make a signigicant contribution by having a greater competitive edge when faced with increasing competition in the tradional markets. The development of new business strategies supported by references of excellence, quality and competitiveness also provides a good link between the estalishment of partnerships aiming at the qualification of education boards at a medium level between the technological school and higher education with a technological foundation. We present a case study as an example depicting the success of Escola Tecnológica de Vale de Cambra.
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Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.
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Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.
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Chapter in Merrill, Barbara (ed.) (2009) Learning to Change? The Role of Identity and Learning Careers in Adult Education. Hamburg: Peter Lang Publishers. URL: http://www.peterlang.com/ index.cfm?vID=58279&vLang=E&vHR=1&vUR=2&vUUR=1
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The INOTEC-Empresa – the Technological Innovation Plan for Enterprises in the Autonomous Region of the Azores (RAA) - was developed in 2006-2007, at the request of the Regional Government, with the main aim of promoting innovation within small and medium enterprises. The methodological approach used in the development of the INOTEC – Empresa Plan was designed to obtain a comprehensive view of regional actors and included a document review, participation of the various actors through interviews, a collection of statements from RAA – Região Autónoma dos Açores – entrepreneurs, academics, public leaders and other key players, together with an analysis of their views and a survey of the innovation dynamics of the most relevant Azorean enterprises. The INOTEC-Empresa – the Technological Innovation Plan for Enterprises – comprises seven programmes aimed at promoting innovation in the Region. This paper focuses on the Programmes for Qualification of Human Resources and the Development of Scientific and Technological Capacities for Innovation. Some socio-economic data and the metrics selected to assess and benchmark the implementation of the Plan will als
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Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.
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The aim of this paper is to corn pare two technological dystopias: Emile Souvestre's Le Monde tel qu'il sera (1846) and Cordwainer Smith's "Alpha Ralpha Boulevard" (1961). Both texts present dystopian societies experienced by many of its inhabitants as being the best of possible worlds. The above authors question the massive use of technology, worry about what technology can do to human beings, how it can dehumanize them. They reveal serious social and moral concerns regarding the less privileged. These are excluded from the benefits of"Utopia" while making it possible. Both authors are childs of.. their time: they live in a period of national pride, they can see the shadows behind the luminous, the dangers resulting from human beings playing God with nature and humanity. Also, they are innovators: Souvestre announces dystopian science fiction and Smith renews with the genre announcing the New Wave movement in Anglo-American science fiction.