Microvascular reconstruction in extremity soft tissue sarcoma surgery

Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) are rare tumors of soft tissue occurring most frequently in the extremities. Modern treatment of extremity STS is based on limb-sparing surgery combined with radiotherapy. To prevent local recurrence, a healthy tissue margin of 2.5 cm around the resected tumor is required. This results in large defects of soft tissue and bone, necessitating the use of reconstructive surgery to achieve wound closure. When local or pedicled soft tissue flaps are unavailable, reconstruction with free flaps is used. Free flaps are elevated at a distant site, and have their blood flow restored at the recipient site through microvascular anastomosis. When limb-sparing surgery is made impossible, amputation is the only option. Proximal amputation such as forequarter amputation (FQA) causes considerable morbidity, but is nevertheless warranted for carefully selected patients for cure or palliation. 116 patients treated in 1985 - 2006 were included in the study. Of these, 93 patients treated with limb-sparing surgery and microvascular reconstructive surgery after resection of extremity STS. 25 patients who underwent FQA were also included. Patients were identified and their medical records retrospectively reviewed. In all, 105 free flap procedures were performed for 103 patients. A total of 95 curatively treated STS patients were included in survival analysis. The latissimus dorsi, used in 56% of cases, was the most frequently used free flap. Free flap success rate was 96%. There were 9% microvascular anastomosis complications and 15% wound complications. For curatively treated STS patients, local recurrence-free survival at 5 years was 73.1%, metastasis-free survival 58.3%, and overall disease-specific survival 68.9%. Functional results were good, with 75% of patients regaining normal or near-normal function after lower extremity, and 55% after upper extremity STS resection. Among curatively treated forequarter amputees, 5-year disease-free survival was 44%. In the palliatively treated group median time until disease death was 14 months. Microvascular reconstruction after extremity soft tissue sarcoma resection is safe and reliable, and produces well-healing wounds allowing early oncological treatment. Oncological outcome after these procedures is comparable to that of other extremity sarcoma patients. Functional results are generally good. Forequarter amputation is a useful treatment option for soft tissue tumors of the shoulder girdle and proximal upper extremity. When free flap coverage of extended forequarter amputation is required, the preferable flap is a fillet flap from the amputated extremity. Acceptable oncological outcome is achieved for curatively treated FQA patients. In the palliatively treated patient considerable periods of increased quality of life can be achieved.

Mechanisms of formation of the Arabian Sea mini warm pool in a high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model

An Ocean General Circulation Model of the Indian Ocean with high horizontal (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees) and vertical (40 levels) resolutions is used to study the dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea mini warm pool (ASMWP), the warmest region in the northern Indian Ocean during January-April. The model simulates the seasonal cycle of temperature, salinity and currents as well as the winter time temperature inversions in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) quite realistically with climatological forcing. An experiment which maintained uniform salinity of 35 psu over the entire model domain reproduces the ASMWP similar to the control run with realistic salinity and this is contrary to the existing theories that stratification caused by the intrusion of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal into the SEAS is crucial for the formation of ASMWP. The contribution from temperature inversions to the warming of the SEAS is found to be negligible. Experiments with modified atmospheric forcing over the SEAS show that the low latent heat loss over the SEAS compared to the surroundings, resulting from the low winds due to the orographic effect of Western Ghats, plays an important role in setting up the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution over the SEAS during November March. During March-May, the SEAS responds quickly to the air-sea fluxes and the peak SST during April-May is independent of the SST evolution during previous months. The SEAS behaves as a low wind, heat-dominated regime during November-May and, therefore, the formation and maintenance of the ASMWP is not dependent on the near surface stratification.

Warm pool thermodynamics from the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)

Before the onset of the south Asian summer monsoon, sea surface temperature (SST) of the north Indian Ocean warms to 30–32°C. Climatological mean mixed layer depth in spring (March–May) is 10–20 m, and net surface heat flux (Q net ) is 80–100 W m−2 into the ocean. Previous work suggests that observed spring SST warming is small mainly because of (1) penetrative flux of solar radiation through the base of the mixed layer (Q pen ) and (2) advective cooling by upper ocean currents. We estimate the role of these two processes in SST evolution from a two-week Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment process experiment in April–May 2005 in the southeastern Arabian Sea. The upper ocean is stratified by salinity and temperature, and mixed layer depth is shallow (6 to 12 m). Current speed at 2 m depth is high even under light winds. Currents within the mixed layer are quite distinct from those at 25 m. On subseasonal scales, SST warming is followed by rapid cooling, although the ocean gains heat at the surface: Q net is about 105 W m−2 in the warming phase and 25 W m−2 in the cooling phase; penetrative loss Q pen is 80 W m−2 and 70 W m−2. In the warming phase, SST rises mainly because of heat absorbed within the mixed layer, i.e., Q net minus Q pen ; Q pen reduces the rate of SST warming by a factor of 3. In the second phase, SST cools rapidly because (1) Q pen is larger than Q net and (2) advective cooling is ∼85 W m−2. A calculation using time-averaged heat fluxes and mixed layer depth suggests that diurnal variability of fluxes and upper ocean stratification tends to warm SST on subseasonal timescale. Buoy and satellite data suggest that a typical premonsoon intraseasonal cooling event occurs under clear skies when the ocean is gaining heat through the surface. In this respect, premonsoon SST cooling in the north Indian Ocean is different from that due to the Madden-Julian oscillation or monsoon intraseasonal oscillation.

Dynamics of ''internal'' interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM

1] The poor predictability of the Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) appears to be due to the fact that a large fraction of interannual variability (IAV) is governed by unpredictable "internal'' low frequency variations. Mechanisms responsible for the internal IAV of the monsoon have not been clearly identified. Here, an attempt has been made to gain insight regarding the origin of internal IAV of the seasonal ( June - September, JJAS) mean rainfall from "internal'' IAV of the ISM simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by fixed annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST). The underlying hypothesis that monsoon ISOs are responsible for internal IAV of the ISM is tested. The spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated summer intraseasonal oscillations ( ISOs) are found to be in good agreement with those observed. A long integration with the AGCM forced with observed SST, shows that ISO activity over the Asian monsoon region is not modulated by the observed SST variations. The internal IAV of ISM, therefore, appears to be decoupled from external IAV. Hence, insight gained from this study may be useful in understanding the observed internal IAV of ISM. The spatial structure of the ISOs has a significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season ( seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broad-band nature of the ISO spectrum allowing the time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relation is a manifestation of the binomial character of rainfall time series. The remaining 50% of the IAV may arise due to land-surface processes, interaction between high frequency variability and ISOs, etc.

Intraseasonal response of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the Bay of Bengal to heat and freshwater flux

Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime Bay of Bengal. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from three Argo floats with 5 day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal. About 95% of Argo profiles show a shallow halocline, with substantial variability of mixed layer salinity. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to lateral advection rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. Large fluctuations in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments.

Climatic potential of delta O-18 of Abies spectabilis from the Nepal Himalaya

A 50-year tree-ring delta O-18 chronology of Abies spectabilis growing close to the tree line (3850 m asl) in the Nepal Himalaya is established to explore its dendroclimatic potential. Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring delta O-18 is primarily governed by rainfall during the monsoon season (June September), and the regression model accounts for 35% of the variance in rainfall. Extreme dry years identified in instrumental weather data are detected in the delta O-18 chronology. Further, tree-ring delta O-18 is much more sensitive to rainfall fluctuations than other tree-ring parameters such as width and density typically used in dendroclimatology. Correlation analyses with Nino 3.4 SST reveal time-dependent behavior of ENSO-monsoon relationships. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle

Recent studies have shown that changes in global mean precipitation are larger for solar forcing than for CO2 forcing of similar magnitude.In this paper, we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the differences originate from differing fast responses of the climate system. We estimate the adjusted radiative forcing and fast response using Hansen's ``fixed-SST forcing'' method.Total climate system response is calculated using mixed layer simulations using the same model. Our analysis shows that the fast response is almost 40% of the total response for few key variables like precipitation and evaporation. We further demonstrate that the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the change in global mean precipitation per unit warming, is the same for the two forcings when the fast responses are excluded from the definition of hydrologic sensitivity, suggesting that the slow response (feedback) of the hydrological cycle is independent of the forcing mechanism. Based on our results, we recommend that the fast and slow response be compared separately in multi-model intercomparisons to discover and understand robust responses in hydrologic cycle. The significance of this study to geoengineering is discussed.

Interannual Variations of Sea Surface Temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Indian Monsoon: A New Perspective

The interannual variation of surface fields over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are studied using data between 1900 and 1979. It is emphasized that the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) over the north Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall are significantly affected by synoptic systems and other intraseasonal variations. To highlight the interannual signals it is important to remove the large-amplitude high-frequency noise and very low frequency long-term trends, if any. By suitable spatial and temporal averaging of the SST and the rainfall data and by removing the long-term trend from the SST data, we have been able to show that there exists a homogeneous region in the southeastern Arabian Sea over which the March�April (MA) SST anomalies are significantly correlated with the seasonal (June�September) rainfall over India. A potential of this premonsoon signal for predicting the seasonal rainfall over India is indicated. It is shown that the correlation between the SST and the seasonal monsoon rainfall goes through a change of sign from significantly positive with premonsoon SST to very small values with SST during the monsoon season and to significantly negative with SST during the post-monsoon months. For the first time, we have demonstrated that heavy or deficient rainfall years are associated with large-scale coherent changes in the SST (although perhaps of small amplitude) over the north Indian 0cean. We also indicate possible reasons for the apparent lack of persistence of the premonsoon SST anomalies.

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Nino led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Nino. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Nino.

Kestävästi vaihtuva muoti : Kestävän muodin mahdollisuudet ja haasteet vaatesuunnittelijan näkökulmasta

The concept of sustainable fashion covers not only the ecological and ethical matters in fashion and textile industries but also the cultural and social affairs, which are equally intertwined in this complex network. Sustainable fashion does not have one explicit or well-established definition; however, many researchers have discussed it from different perspectives. This study provides an overview of the principals, practices, possibilities, and challenges concerning sustainable fashion. It focuses particularly on the practical questions a designer faces. The aim of this study was to answer the following questions: What kind of outlooks and practices are included in sustainable fashion? How could the principles of sustainable fashion be integrated into designing and making clothes? The qualitative study was carried out by using the Grounded Theory method. Data consisted mainly of academic literature and communication with designers who practice sustainable fashion. In addition to these, several websites and journalistic articles were used. The data was analyzed by identifying and categorizing relevant concepts using the constant comparative method, i.e. examining the internal consistency of each category. The study established a core category, around which all other categories are integrated. The emerged concepts were organized into a model that pieces together different ideas about sustainable fashion, namely, when the principles of sustainable development are applied to fashion practices. The category named Considered Take and Return is the core of the model. It consists of various design philosophies that form the basis of design practice, and thus it relates to all other categories. It is framed by the category of Attachment and Appreciation, which reflects the importance of sentiment in design practice, for example the significance of aesthetics. The categories especially linked to fashion are Materials, Treatments of Fabrics and Production Methods. The categories closely connected with sustainable development are Saving Resources, Societal Implications, and Information Transparency. While the model depicts separate categories, the different segments are in close interaction. The objective of sustainable fashion is holistic and requires all of its sections to be taken into account.

Macrophages in regressed and progressed uveal melanoma

Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary ocular malignancy in adults. In Finland, approximately 50 new cases are diagnosed yearly. Up to 50% of UM metastasize, mostly to the liver, although other organs are also affected. Despite improvements in the management of the primary tumour, the survival rates of patients with metastatic UM are poor. Until the 1970s, UMs were treated by enucleation i.e. removal of the eye. Currently, UM is usually treated by brachytherapy, which is known to influence tumour cells and blood vessels. UMs enucleated both primarily and secondarily after brachytherapy contain tumour-infiltrating macrophages, and a high number of macrophages in primary UM is associated with a shorter survival and a higher microvascular density (MVD) within the tumour tissue. The latter is independently associated with a shorter time to metastatic death. Macrophages have several diverse roles depending on their response to variable signals from the surrounding microenvironment. They function as scavengers, as producers of angiogenic and growth factors as well as proteases, which modulate extracellular matrix. Thus, tumour invasiveness and the risk for metastasis increase with increasing macrophage density. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of regression and progression of UM on macrophage numbers and microcirculation factors. Tumour regression is induced by primary brachytherapy, and tumour progression is evidenced by the development of metastases. Understanding the biological behaviour of UMs in the both states may help us in finding new treatment modalities against this disease. To achieve these aims case-control analyses of irradiated UMs and primarily-enucleated eyes (34 matched pairs) were performed. UMs were stained immunohistochemically to detect macrophages, extravascular matrix (EVM) loops and networks, and MVD. Following brachytherapy, a lower MVD was observed. The average number of macrophages remained unchanged. Considering that irradiated melanomas may still contain proliferating tumour cells, a clinically-relevant consequence of my study would be the reassurance that the risk for metastasis is likely to be reduced, given that the low MVD in untreated UMs indicates a favourable prognosis. The effect of progression on macrophages was studied in a paired analysis of primarily-enucleated UM and their corresponding hepatic metastases (48 pairs). A cross-sectional histopathological analysis of these pairs was carried out by staining both specimens in a similar way to the first study. MVD was greater in hepatic metastases than in corresponding primary tumours, and the survival of the patient tended to be shorter if hepatic metastases had a higher MVD. Hepatic metastases had also more dendritic macrophages than the primary UMs. Thus, the progression to metastasis seems to alter the inflammatory status within the tumour. Furthermore, determining MVD of biopsied hepatic metastases may serve as a supplementary tool in estimating the prognosis of patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. After irradiation, the majority of treated eyes have been clinically observed to have pigmented episcleral deposits. A noncomparative clinical case series of 211 irradiated UM eyes were studied by recording the number and location of pigmented episcleral deposits during follow-up visits after brachytherapy. For the first time, the study described pigmented episcleral deposits, which are found in the most UM eyes after brachytherapy, and proved them to consist of macrophages full with engulfed melanin particles. This knowledge may save patients from unnecessary enucleation, because episcleral pigmented deposits might be mistaken for extrascleral tumour growth. The presence of pigmented macrophage-related episcleral deposits was associated with plaque size and isotope rather than with tumour size, suggesting that, in addition to tumour regression, radiation atrophy of retinal pigment epithelium and choroid contributes to the formation of the deposits. In the paired (the same 34 pairs as in the first study) cross-sectional study of irradiated and non-irradiated UMs, clinically-visible episcleral deposits and migrating macrophages in other extratumoral tissues were studied histopathologically. Resident macrophages were present in extratumoral tissues in eyes with both irradiated and non-irradiated UM. Irradiation increased both the number of CD68+ macrophages in the sclera beneath the tumour and the number of clinically-observed episcleral macrophages aggregates. Brachytherapy seemed to alter the route of migration of macrophages: after irradiation, macrophages migrated preferentially through the sclera while in non-irradiated UMs they seemed to migrate more along the choroid. In order to understand the influence of these routes on tumour progression and regression in the future, labelling and tracking of activated macrophages in vivo is required.

Indian Ocean Dipole: Processes and impacts

Equatorial Indian Ocean is warmer in the east, has a deeper thermocline and mixed layer, and supports a more convective atmosphere than in the west. During certain years, the eastern Indian Ocean becomes unusually cold, anomalous winds blow from east to west along the equator and southeastward off the coast of Sumatra, thermocline and mixed layer lift up and the atmospheric convection gets suppressed. At the same time, western Indian Ocean becomes warmer and enhances atmospheric convection. This coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in which convection, winds, sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline take part actively is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Propagation of baroclinic Kelvin and Rossby waves excited by anomalous winds, play an important role in the development of SST anomalies associated with the IOD. Since mean thermocline in the Indian Ocean is deep compared to the Pacific, it was believed for a long time that the Indian Ocean is passive and merely responds to the atmospheric forcing. Discovery of the IOD and studies that followed demonstrate that the Indian Ocean can sustain its own intrinsic coupled ocean-atmosphere processes. About 50% percent of the IOD events in the past 100 years have co-occurred with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other half independently. Coupled models have been able to reproduce IOD events and process experiments by such models – switching ENSO on and off – support the hypothesis based on observations that IOD events develop either in the presence or absence of ENSO. There is a general consensus among different coupled models as well as analysis of data that IOD events co-occurring during the ENSO are forced by a zonal shift in the descending branch of Walker cell over to the eastern Indian Ocean. Processes that initiate the IOD in the absence of ENSO are not clear, although several studies suggest that anomalies of Hadley circulation are the most probable forcing function. Impact of the IOD is felt in the vicinity of Indian Ocean as well as in remote regions. During IOD events, biological productivity of the eastern Indian Ocean increases and this in turn leads to death of corals over a large area.Moreover, the IOD affects rainfall over the maritime continent, Indian subcontinent, Australia and eastern Africa. The maritime continent and Australia suffer from deficit rainfall whereas India and east Africa receive excess. Despite the successful hindcast of the 2006 IOD by a coupled model, forecasting IOD events and their implications to rainfall variability remains a major challenge as understanding reasons behind an increase in frequency of IOD events in recent decades.

Yhteistoiminta kriisinhallinnassa : toimivan siviili-sotilasyhteistyön merkitys epäonnistuneen valtion jälleenrakennusprosessissa

Tutkimuksessa etsitään vastausta kysymykseen, millainen on toimivan siviili-sotilasyhteistyön merkitys epäonnistuneen valtion jälleenrakennusprosessissa. Se pyrkii selvittämään, kuinka Euroopan unionin Eulex-operaatiossa ja Naton Kfor-operaatiossa työskentelevien siviili- ja sotilaallisen kriisinhallinnan asiantuntijoiden keskinäinen yhteistoiminta hyödyttää epäonnistuneen valtion jälleenrakennusprosessia. Aihetta lähestytään sekä yhteistyötoimijoiden että operaatioalueen näkökulmasta. Työn monipuolisuutta ja hyödynnettävyyttä on pyritty lisäämään alakysymyksillä: miten yhteistyö on huomioitu koulutusvaiheessa, minkälaista yhteistyö Eulex-ja Kfor-operaatioiden välillä oli Kosovossa ja miten yhteistyön ongelmat ja seuraukset näkyvät. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on osaltaan lisätä tietämystä melko vähän tutkitusta, mutta tärkeydeltään lisääntyvästä aiheesta. Tulevaisuuden entisestään monipuolistuviin kriiseihin tulee kyetä vastaamaan kokonaisvaltaisemmin, ja se edellyttää toimivaa yhteistyötä. Tapaustutkimuksen aineisto on kerätty haastattelemalla sekä sotilaita että siviilikriisinhallinta-asiantuntijoita. Litteroitu materiaali on analysoitu käyttäen sisällönanalyysin periaatteita ja analysoidun kokonaisuuden perusteella on tehty johtopäätöksiä. Tutkimukseen sisältyy myös luotaus aiheen tulevaisuuteen. Epäonnistuneen valtion ajatus toimii vahvasti käytännöllisen tutkimuksen teoreettisena viitekehyksenä. Haastattelut ovat tutkimuksen päälähde, nmlta sen lisäksi melko tuoretta ja ajankohtaista aihetta käsittelevän työn tärkeimpiä lähteitä ovat Siviilikriisinhallinnan kansallinen strategia (2008) sekä Suomen kokonaisvaltainen kriisinhallintastrategia (2009) sekä muut aihetta käsittelevät julkaisut. Yhteistoiminnan osapuolten. Kosovossa Eulex-ja Kfor-operaatioiden, kannalta toimiva yhteistyö muun muassa lisää toimijoiden motivaatiota ja ammattitaitoa monipuolisesti, vähentää epäluuloja toista organisaatiota kohtaan sekä edesauttaa toimintaa tulevissa operaatioissa. Lisäksi onnistunut yhteistoiminta antaa positiivista esimerkkiä muille toimijoille, säästää resursseja, lisää tehokkuutta, parantaa tiedonvaihtoa, luo vakautta operaatioon sekä antaa uskottavuutta toimijoille. Operaatioalueen kannalta toimivan yhteistyön hyödyt ovat vieläkin moninaisemmat. Onnistunut yhteistyö mahdollistaa operaation onnistumisen ja sitä kautta olojen palautumisen normaaliksi. Toimiva yhteistyö edesauttaa omatoimista kehitystä sekä helpottaa paikallisten toimijoiden vastuunottoa, toiminnan kehitystä, transitioaskelten tehokasta suunnittelua ja paikallisten organisaatioiden ja toimintatapojen kehittymistä. Se myös varmistaa, että tuki saadaan käyttöön täysimääräisesti, toimii esimerkkinä paikallisten yhteistyön kehittämisessä, parantaa suunnittelumahdollisuuksia sekä mahdollistaa operaation tavoitteiden saavuttamisen. Toimijoiden välisen yhteistyön intensiteetti ja muodot täytyy aina sovittaa operaation vaatimuksia vastaaviksi. Siviili- ja sotilastoimijoiden välistä yhteistyötä voidaan kehittää muun muassa koulutuksen ja tutkimuksen myötä, kehitykselle tulee olemaan tarvetta, sillä yhteistyö kriisinhallintatoiminnassa tullee jatkossa entisestään lisääntymään ja tiivistymään.

Aperiodic Variability in the Cane-Zebiak Model: A Diagnostic Study

The finite predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is determined by its aperiodic variability. To gain insight regarding the predictability of such a system, a series of diagnostic studies has been carried out to investigate the role of convergence feedback in producing the aperiodic behavior of the standard version of the Cane-Zebiak model. In this model, an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) increases atmospheric heating by enhancing local evaporation (SST anomaly feedback) and low-level convergence (convergence feedback). The convergence feedback is a nonlinear function of the background mean convergence field. For the set of standard parameters used in the model, it is shown that the convergence feedback contributes importantly to the aperiodic behaviour of the model. As the strength of the convergence feedback is increased from zero to its standard value, the model variability goes from a periodic regime to an aperiodic regime through a broadening of the frequency spectrum around the basic periodicity of about 4 years. Examination of the forcing associated with the convergence feedback reveals that it is intermittent, with relatively large amplitude only during 2 or 3 months in the early part of the calendar year. This seasonality in the efficiency of the convergence feedback is related to the strong seasonality of the mean convergence over the eastern Pacific. It is shown that if the mean convergence field is fixed at its March value, aperiodic behavior is produced even in the absence of annual cycles in the other mean fields. On the, other hand, if the mean convergence field is fixed at its September value, the coupled model evolution remains close to periodic, even in the presence of the annual cycle in the other fields. The role of convergence feedback on the aperiodic variability of the model for other parameter regimes is also examined. It is shown that a range exists in the strength of the SST anomaly feedback for which the model variability is aperiodic even without the convergence feedback. It appears that in the absence of convergence feedback, enhancement of the strength of the air-sea coupling in the model through other physical processes also results in aperiodicity in the model.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.