Numerical simulation of combined heat transfer phenomena (conduction, convection, and radiation). Application to he optimisation of thermal systems

Thermal systems interchanging heat and mass by conduction, convection, radiation (solar and thermal ) occur in many engineering applications like energy storage by solar collectors, window glazing in buildings, refrigeration of plastic moulds, air handling units etc. Often these thermal systems are composed of various elements for example a building with wall, windows, rooms, etc. It would be of particular interest to have a modular thermal system which is formed by connecting different modules for the elements, flexibility to use and change models for individual elements, add or remove elements without changing the entire code. A numerical approach to handle the heat transfer and fluid flow in such systems helps in saving the full scale experiment time, cost and also aids optimisation of parameters of the system. In subsequent sections are presented a short summary of the work done until now on the orientation of the thesis in the field of numerical methods for heat transfer and fluid flow applications, the work in process and the future work.

Do institutions matter for economic fluctuations? Weak property rights in a business cycle model for Mexico

This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.

Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model

This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.

Phylogeographical footprints of the Strait of Gibraltar and Quaternary climatic fluctuations in the western Mediterranean: a case study with the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula (Mammalia: Soricidae).

We used mitochondrial cyt b sequences to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Crocidura russula (sensu lato) populations across the Strait of Gibraltar, western Europe, Maghreb, and the Mediterranean and Atlantic islands. This revealed very low genetic divergence between European and Moroccan populations. The application of a molecular clock previously calibrated for shrews suggested that the separation of European from Moroccan lineages occurred less than 60 000 bp, which is at least 5 million years (Myr) after the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This means that an overwater dispersal event was responsible for the observed phylogeographical structure. In contrast, genetic analyses revealed that Moroccan populations were highly distinct from Tunisian ones. According to the molecular clock, these populations separated about 2.2 million years ago (Ma), a time marked by sharp alternations of dry and humid climates in the Maghreb. The populations of the Mediterranean islands Ibiza, Pantelleria, and Sardinia were founded from Tunisian populations by overwater dispersal. In conclusion, overwater dispersal across the Strait of Gibraltar, probably assisted by humans, is possible for small terrestrial vertebrates. Moreover, as in Europe, Quaternary climatic fluctuations had a major effect on the phylogeographical structure of the Maghreb biota.

Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.

The thermal stability of yellow fever vaccines

The assessment of yellow fever vaccine thermostability both in lyophilized form and after reconstitution were analyzed. Two commercial yellow fever vaccines were assayed for their thermal stability. Vaccines were exposed to test temperatures in the range of 8 (graus) C to 45 (graus) C. Residual infectivity was measured by a plaque assay using Vero cells. The titre values were used in an accelerated degradation test that follows the Arrhenius equation and the minimum immunizing dose was assumed to be 10 (ao cubo) particles forming unit (pfu)/dose. Some of the most relevant results include that (i) regular culture medium show the same degradation pattern of a reconstituted 17D-204 vaccine; (ii) reconstituted YF-17D-204 showed a predictable half life of more than six days if kept at 0 (graus) C; (iii) there are differences in thermostability between different products that are probably due to both presence of stabilizers in the preparation and the modernization in the vaccine production; (iv) it is important to establish a proper correlation between the mouse infectivity test and the plaque assay since the last appears to be more simple, economical, and practical for small laboratories to assess the potency of the vaccine, and (v) the accelerated degradation test appears to be the best procedure to quantify the thermostability of biological products.

Thermal niches are more conserved at cold than warm limits in arctic-alpine plant species

Aim Understanding the stability of realised niches is crucial for predicting the responses of species to climate change. One approach is to evaluate the niche differences of populations of the same species that occupy regions that are geographically disconnected. Here, we assess niche conservatism along thermal gradients for 26 plant species with a disjunct distribution between the Alps and the Arctic. Location European Alps and Norwegian Finnmark. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset of 26 arctic-alpine plant occurrences in two regions. We assessed niche conservatism through a multi-species comparison and analysed species rankings at cold and warm thermal limits along two distinct gradients corresponding to (1) air temperatures at 2 meters above ground level and (2) elevation distances to the treeline (TLD) for the two regions. We assessed whether observed relationships were close to those predicted under thermal limit conservatism. Results We found a weak similarity in species ranking at the warm thermal limits. The range of warm thermal limits for the 26 species was much larger in the Alps than in Finnmark. We found a stronger similarity in species ranking and correspondence at the cold thermal limit along the gradients of 2-m temperature and TLD. Yet, along the 2-m temperature gradient, the cold thermal limits of species in the Alps were lower on average than those in Finnmark. Main conclusion We found low conservatism of the warm thermal limits but a stronger conservatism of the cold thermal limits. We suggest that biotic interactions at the warm thermal limit likely modulate species responses more strongly than at the cold limit. The differing biotic context between the two regions is likely responsible for the observed differences in realised niches.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Influència del context geològic i hidrogeològic en l'eficiència energètica dels sistemes geotèrmics de molt baixa entalpia

L’elevat consum energètic de les societats actuals, així com la impossibilitat de sostenir-lo a llarg termini implica la cerca de noves fonts d’energia. D’aquesta manera, en el camp de la climatització residencial, l’energia geotèrmica de molt baixa entalpia es posiciona com una alternativa als recursos energètics actuals. Així, els primers metres de subsòl presenten una temperatura adequada per al seu aprofitament calorífic, mitjançant els sistemes geotèrmics de bomba de calor. Si bé a nivell energètic, són sistemes, intrínsecament, molt eficients, el seu rendiment pot patir importants variacions davant dels canvis en les condicions del medi geològic i hidrogeològic. Especialment, els col·lectors de calor verticals, treballen, amb freqüència, en el si de les formacions hidrogeològiques. En aquest sentit, els canvis del nivell hidràulic i de la temperatura de l’aigua de l’aqüífer es manifesten amb variacions de la conductivitat tèrmica equivalent i del flux subterrani d’aigua, que alhora, aquestes, es tradueixen en alteracions del flux subterrani de calor. Davant d’aquest fet, l’avaluació quantitativa de l’efecte d’aquestes fluctuacions que es presenta en aquest treball mostra petites variacions del nivell hidràulic i de la temperatura de l’aigua comporten canvis molt notables en l’eficiència dels sistemes verticals de bomba de calor geotèrmica.

A qualitative response model of thermal comfort

A sound statistical methodology is presented for modelling the correspondence between the characteristics of individuals, their thermal environment, and their thermal sensation. The proposed methodology substantially improves that developed by P.O. Fanger, by formulating a more general and precise model of thermal comfort. It enables us to estimate the model from a sample of data where all the parameters of comfort vary at the same time, which is not possible with that adopted by Fanger. Moreover, the present model is still valid when thermal conditions are far from optimum. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Estudi de la configuració magnètica de l'experiment LTP (LISA Technology Package)

La Teoria de la Relativitat General preveu que quan un objecte massiu és sotmès a una certa acceleració en certes condicions ha d’emetre ones gravitacionals. Es tracta d’un tipus d’on altament energètica però que interacciona amb la matèria de manera molt feble i el seu punt d’emissió és força llunyà. Per la qual cosa la seva detecció és una tasca extraordinàriament complicada. Conseqüentment, la detecció d’aquestes ones es creu molt més factible utilitzant instruments situats a l’espai. Amb aquest objectiu, neis la missió LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna). Es tracta aquesta d’una missió conjunta entre la NASA i l’ESA amb llançament previst per 2020-2025. Per reduir els riscs que comporta una primera utilització de tecnologia no testejada, unit a l’alt cost econòmic de la missió LISA. Aquesta missió contindrà instruments molt avançats: el LTP (LISA Technoplogy Package), desenvolupat per la Unió Europea, que provarà la tecnologia de LISA i el Drag Free flying system, que s’encarregarà de provar una sèrie de propulsors (thrusters) utilitzats per al control d’actitud i posició de satèl•lit amb precisió de nanòmetres. Particularment, el LTP, està composat per dues masses de prova separades per 35 centímetres, i d’un interferòmetre làser que mesura la variació de la distància relativa entre elles. D’aquesta manera, el LTP mesurarà les prestacions dels equips i les possibles interferències que afecten a la mesura. Entre les fonts de soroll es troben, entre d’altres, el vent i pressió de radiació solar, les càrregues electrostàtiques, el gradient tèrmic, les fluctuacions de voltatge o les forces internes. Una de les possibles causes de soroll és aquella que serà l’objecte d’estudi en aquest projecte de tesi doctoral: la presència dintre del LTP de camps magnètics, que exerceixen una força sobre les masses de prova, la seva estimació i el seu control, prenent en compte les caracterírstiques magnètiques de l’experiment i la dinàmica del satèl•lit.