Modeling survival and the development of second primary tumors among Hodgkin's disease patients

Hodgkin's disease (HD) is a cancer of the lymphatic system. Survivors of HD face varieties of consequent adverse effects, in which secondary primary tumors (SPT) is one of the most serious consequences. This dissertation is aimed to model time-to-SPT in the presence of death and HD relapses during follow-up.^ The model is designed to handle a mixture phenomenon of SPT and the influence of death. Relapses of HD are adjusted as a covariate. Proportional hazards framework is used to define SPT intensity function, which includes an exponential term to estimate explanatory variables. Death as a competing risk is considered according to different scenarios, depending on which terminal event comes first. Newton-Raphson method is used to estimate the parameter estimates in the end.^ The proposed method is applied to a real data set containing a group of HD patients. Several risk factors for the development of SPT are identified and the findings are noteworthy in the development of healthcare guidelines that may lead to the early detection or prevention of SPT.^

Impact of hormonal therapy on survival and racial disparities in a large community-based cohort of older men with local/regional prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (CaP) is the most diagnosed non-cutaneous malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer mortality among United States males. Major racial disparities in incidence, survival, as well as treatment persist. The mortality is three times higher among African Americans (AAs) compared with Caucasians. Androgen carcinogenesis has been persistently implicated but results are inconsistent; and hormone manipulation has been the main stay of treatment for metastatic disease, supportive of the androgen carcinogenesis. The survival disadvantage of AAs has been attributed to the differences in socioeconomic factors (SES), tumor stage, and treatment. We hypostasized that HT prolongs survival in CaP and that the racial disparities in survival is influenced by variation in HT and primary therapies as well as SES. To address these overall hypothesis, we first utilized a random-effect meta-analytic design to examine evidence from randomized trials on the efficacy of androgen deprivation therapy in localized and metastatic disease, and assessed, using Cox proportional hazards models, the effectiveness of HT in prolonging survival in a large community-based cohort of older males diagnosed with local/regional CaP. Further we examined the role of HT and primary therapies on the racial disparities in CaP survival. The results indicated that adjuvant HT compared with standard care alone is efficacious in improving overall survival, whereas HT has no significant benefit in the real world experience in increasing the overall survival of older males in the community treated for local/regional disease. Further, racial differences in survival persist and were explained to some extent by the differences in the primary therapies (radical prostatectomy, radiation and watchful waiting) and largely by SES. Therefore, given the increased used of hormonal therapy and the cost-effectiveness today, more RCTs are needed to assess whether or not survival prolongation translates to improved quality of life, and to answer the research question on whether or not the decreased use of radical prostatectomy by AAs is driven by the Clinicians bias or AAs's preference of conservative therapy and to encourage AAs to seek curative therapies, thus narrowing to some degree the persistent mortality disparities between AAs and Caucasians. ^

Genetic variants in the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway as predictors of survival and clinical response in women with ovarian cancer

Background. The mTOR pathway is commonly altered in human tumors and promotes cell survival and proliferation. Preliminary evidence suggests this pathway's involvement in chemoresistance to platinum and taxanes, first line therapy for epithelial ovarian cancer. A pathway-based approach was used to identify individual germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants in mTOR pathway genes and their association with clinical outcome in women with ovarian cancer. ^ Methods. The case-series was restricted to 319 non-Hispanic white women with high grade ovarian cancer treated with surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. 135 SNPs in 20 representative genes in the mTOR pathway were genotyped. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death and Odds ratios (ORs) for failure to respond to primary therapy were estimated for each SNP using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and multivariate logistic regression model, respectively, while adjusting for age, stage, histology and treatment sequence. A survival tree analysis of SNPs with a statistically significant association (p<0.05) was performed to identify higher order gene-gene interactions and their association with overall survival. ^ Results. There was no statistically significant difference in survival by tumor histology or treatment regimen. The median survival for the cohort was 48.3 months. Seven SNPs were significantly associated with decreased survival. Compared to those with no unfavorable genotypes, the HR for death increased significantly with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes and women in the highest risk category had HR of 4.06 (95% CI 2.29–7.21). The survival tree analysis also identified patients with different survival patterns based on their genetic profiles. 13 SNPs on five different genes were found to be significantly associated with a treatment response, defined as no evidence of disease after completion of primary therapy. Rare homozygous genotype of SNP rs6973428 showed a 5.5-fold increased risk compared to the wild type carrying genotypes. In the cumulative effect analysis, the highest risk group (individuals with ≥8 unfavorable genotypes) was significantly less likely to respond to chemotherapy (OR=8.40, 95% CI 3.10–22.75) compared to the low risk group (≤4 unfavorable genotypes). ^ Conclusions. A pathway-based approach can demonstrate cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants on clinical response to chemotherapy and survival. Therapy targeting the mTOR pathway may modify outcome in select patients.^

Ocean acidification not likely to affect the survival and fitness of two yemperate benthic foraminiferal species: results from culture experiments

Specimens of Bolivina argentea and Bulimina marginata, two widely distributed temperate benthic foraminiferal species, were cultured at constant temperature and controlled pCO2 (ambient, 1000 ppmv, and 2000 ppmv) for six weeks to assess the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations on survival and fitness using Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP) analyses and on shell microfabric using high-resolution SEM and image analysis. To characterize the carbonate chemistry of the incubation seawater, total alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon were measured approximately every two weeks. Survival and fitness were not directly affected by elevated pCO2 and the concomitant decrease in seawater pH and calcite saturation states (Omega c), even when seawater was undersaturated with respect to calcite. These results differ from some previous observations that ocean acidification can cause a variety of effects on benthic foraminifera, including test dissolution, decreased growth, and mottling (loss of symbiont color in symbiont-bearing species), suggesting that the benthic foraminiferal response to ocean acidification may be species specific. If so, this implies that ocean acidification may lead to ecological winners and losers even within the same taxonomic group.

Impacts of food availability and pCO2 on planulation, juvenile survival, and calcification of the azooxanthellate scleractinian coral Balanophyllia elegans

Ocean acidification, the assimilation of atmospheric CO2 by the oceans that decreases the pH and CaCO3 saturation state (Omega) of seawater, is projected to have severe adverse consequences for calcifying organisms. While strong evidence suggests calcification by tropical reef-building corals containing algal symbionts (zooxanthellae) will decline over the next century, likely responses of azooxanthellate corals to ocean acidification are less well understood. Because azooxanthellate corals do not obtain photosynthetic energy from symbionts, they provide a system for studying the direct effects of acidification on energy available for calcification. The solitary azooxanthellate orange cup coral Balanophyllia elegans often lives in low-pH, upwelled waters along the California coast. In an 8-month factorial experiment, we measured the effects of three pCO2 treatments (410, 770, and 1220 µatm) and two feeding frequencies (3-day and 21-day intervals) on "planulation" (larval release) by adult B. elegans, and on the survival, skeletal growth, and calcification of newly settled juveniles. Planulation rates were affected by food level but not pCO2. Juvenile mortality was highest under high pCO2 (1220 µatm) and low food (21-day intervals). Feeding rate had a greater impact on calcification of B. elegans than pCO2. While net calcification was positive even at 1220 µatm (~3 times current atmospheric pCO2), overall calcification declined by ~25-45%, and skeletal density declined by ~35-45% as pCO2 increased from 410 to 1220 µatm. Aragonite crystal morphology changed at high pCO2, becoming significantly shorter but not wider at 1220 µatm. We conclude that food abundance is critical for azooxanthellate coral calcification, and that B. elegans may be partially protected from adverse consequences of ocean acidification in habitats with abundant heterotrophic food.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and coral (Acropora digitifera and Acropora tenuis) algal infection rate, survival and surface area of plyps during experiments, 2009

Ocean acidification, caused by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, is currently an important environmental problem. It is therefore necessary to investigate the effects of ocean acidification on all life stages of a wide range of marine organisms. However, few studies have examined the effects of increased CO2 on early life stages of organisms, including corals. Using a range of pH values (pH 7.3, 7.6, and 8.0) in manipulative duplicate aquarium experiments, we have evaluated the effects of increased CO2 on early life stages (larval and polyp stages) of Acropora spp. with the aim of estimating CO2 tolerance thresholds at these stages. Larval survival rates did not differ significantly between the reduced pH and control conditions. In contrast, polyp growth and algal infection rates were significantly decreased at reduced pH levels compared to control conditions. These results suggest that future ocean acidification may lead to reduced primary polyp growth and delayed establishment of symbiosis. Stress exposure experiments using longer experimental time scales and lower levels of CO2 concentrations than those used in this study are needed to establish the threshold of CO2 emissions required to sustain coral reef ecosystems.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis larval and juvenile survival and reporductive processes, 2012

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are acidifying the world's oceans. A growing body of evidence demonstrates that ocean acidification can impact survival, growth, development and physiology of marine invertebrates. Here we tested the impact of long term (up to 16 months) and trans life-cycle (adult, embryo/larvae and juvenile) exposure to elevated pCO2 (1200 µatm, compared to control 400 µatm) on the green sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis. Female fecundity was decreased 4.5 fold when acclimated to elevated pCO2 for 4 months during reproductive conditioning while no difference was observed in females acclimated for 16 months. Moreover, adult pre-exposure for 4 months to elevated pCO2, had a direct negative impact on subsequent larval settlement success. Five to nine times fewer offspring reached the juvenile stage in cultures using gametes collected from adults previously acclimated to high pCO2 for 4 months. However, no difference in larval survival was observed when adults were pre-exposed for 16 months to elevated pCO2. pCO2 had no direct negative impact on juvenile survival except when both larvae and juveniles were raised in elevated pCO2. These negative effects on settlement success and juvenile survival can be attributed to carry-over effects from adults to larvae and from larvae to juveniles. Our results support the contention that adult sea urchins can acclimate to moderately elevated pCO2 in a matter of a few months and that carry-over effects can exacerbate the negative impact of ocean acidification on larvae and juveniles.

Family Business in Peru: Survival and Expansion under the Liberalization

It is argued that joint stock companies would be transformed from family firms to managerial firms with their development in size and scope. Such managerial firms would have many small shareholders; hence the ownership and management of the firm would be separated. However, in many developing countries including Peru, family businesses, in which families control both ownership and management, still play an important role in the national economy. After the liberalization of economy, which started in Peru in the 1990s, the national market has become more competitive due to the increase in participation of foreign capitals. To secure competitiveness, it is indispensable for family businesses to obtain management resources such as financial, human and technological resources from outside of the families. In order to do so without losing the control over ownership and management, Peruvian family businesses have incorporated companies with distinct characteristics to the extent that they can secure the control over ownership and management inside of their group. While keeping exclusive control of companies in traditional sectors, they actively seek alliance with other families and foreign capitals in competitive sectors. The management of companies with different degrees of control allows them to survive in today's rapidly changing business environment.

Changes in source of profits and business strategies? : some evidence from the Philippines' universal banks in the 2000s

In the 2000s, the Philippines' local banking sector have conducted very conservative lending behavior and at the same time, gradually but continuously improved their profitability in terms of ROE (return on equity). A set of analyses on the flow of funds and segment reports (information) of local universal banks, whose loans outstanding to the industrial sector have dominated more than three fourths of the total outstanding, shows that (1) they have actively manage assets overseas, (2) their profitability has come from investment activities in the securities markets, and (3) some universal banks have shifted their resources into the consumer/retail segment. Although further refinement in the dataset is needed for a more detailed analysis, diverse business strategies would be expected among the local universal banks in the near future.

From school to work : Muslim youths' education and employment strategies in a community in Uttar Pradesh, India

India's Muslim community, which accounts for 14.4 percent of India’s vast population and is thus the largest of all religious minorities, has been the subject of considerable development discourse as Muslims have the lowest level of educational attainment and standard of living among socio-religious groups in the country. This study addresses the meaning of education and career opportunities for Muslim youths in relation to their educational credentials and social position in the hierarchy of Muslim class and caste groups, with particular reference to a community in Uttar Pradesh. The author contends that the career opportunities, possibilities, and strategies of Muslim youths in Indian society depend on multiple factors: social hierarchy, opportunities to utilize economic resources, social networks, cultural capital, and the wider structural disparities within which the Muslims are situated and wherein they question the value of higher education in gaining them admission to socially recognized and established employment sectors.

Effects of sublethal doses of methoxyfenozide on the development, survival and reproduction of Spodoptera frugiperda.

The lethal and sublethal effects of the ecdysone agonist methoxyfenozide on the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith), were investigated by feeding a methoxyfenozide-treated diet to ϐifth instars until pupation in doses corresponding to the LC 10 and LC 25 for the compound. Larval mortality reached 8% and 26% in the low and high concentration groups, respectively, on the seventh day of the experiment. A progressive larval mortality of 12% for the LC 10 and 60% for the LC 25 was observed before pupation. Treated larvae exhibited lower pupal weights, higher pupal mortality, presence of deformed pupae, and more deformed adults than untreated larvae. The incorporation of methoxyfenozide into the diet had a signiϐicant effect on the timing of larval development. The development period for males and females was about seven days longer than the controls for both concentrations tested. In contrast, the compound affected neither pupae nor adult longevity. Finally, S. frugiperda adults that resulted from ϐifth instars treated with methoxyfenozide were not affected in their mean cumulative number of eggs laid per female (fecundity), nor percentages of eggs hatched (fertility), or the sex ratio. Our results suggest that the combination of lethal and sublethal effects of methoxyfenozide may have important implications for the population dynamics of the fall armyworm

Constructs and evaluation strategies for intelligent speculative parallelism - armageddon revisited

This report addresses speculative parallelism (the assignment of spare processing resources to tasks which are not known to be strictly required for the successful completion of a computation) at the user and application level. At this level, the execution of a program is seen as a (dynamic) tree —a graph, in general. A solution for a problem is a traversal of this graph from the initial state to a node known to be the answer. Speculative parallelism then represents the assignment of resources to múltiple branches of this graph even if they are not positively known to be on the path to a solution. In highly non-deterministic programs the branching factor can be very high and a naive assignment will very soon use up all the resources. This report presents work assignment strategies other than the usual depth-first and breadth-first. Instead, best-first strategies are used. Since their definition is application-dependent, the application language contains primitives that allow the user (or application programmer) to a) indícate when intelligent OR-parallelism should be used; b) provide the functions that define "best," and c) indícate when to use them. An abstract architecture enables those primitives to perform the search in a "speculative" way, using several processors, synchronizing them, killing the siblings of the path leading to the answer, etc. The user is freed from worrying about these interactions. Several search strategies are proposed and their implementation issues are addressed. "Armageddon," a global pruning method, is introduced, together with both a software and a hardware implementation for it. The concepts exposed are applicable to áreas of Artificial Intelligence such as extensive expert systems, planning, game playing, and in general to large search problems. The proposed strategies, although showing promise, have not been evaluated by simulation or experimentation.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Evaluation of reproductive sucess and conservation strategies for Senecio coincyi (Asteraceae), a narrow and threatened species

Senecio coincyi is a threatened endemic plant of central western Spain, with a very narrow extent of occurrence. The reproductive success and germination behaviour of this species were studied. The area of occupancy, habitat types and size of 13 known subpopulations of S. coincyi were evaluated. The number of individuals that form all these subpopulations was counted. In addition, the number of flowers and cypselas per fruit head and the number of fruit heads per individual plant were recorded in a subset of subpopulations. Germination tests were carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and light regimes on, and possible intraspecific variation in, cypsela germination. Cypselas reached very high germination percentages (90?100%) from 15?C to 30?C. However, the germination decreased (19%) at 10?C. The light conditions assayed (16-h light photoperiod and complete darkness) did not significantly affect cypsela germination. In general, there was no intraspecific variability in germination patterns of S. coincyi cypselas. Livestock is the most important factor that can be a threat for this species. S. coincyi showed high reproductive success and, therefore, its conservation problems are not due to agents related to its reproduction, but rather to other factors such as alteration of its habitat caused by the presence of livestock.