A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Application of near surface mounted (NSM) strengthening technique to traditional timber frame walls

Timber frame buildings are well known as an efficient seismic resistant structure popular all over the world not only due to their seismic performance, but also to their low cost and the strength they offer. These constructions still exist today and it is important to be able to preserve them, so a better knowledge on their behaviour is sought. Furthermore, historic technologies could be used even in modern constructions to build seismic resistant buildings using more natural materials with lesser costs. A great rehabilitation effort is being carried out on this type of buildings, as their neglect has led to decay or their change in use and alterations to the structure has led to the need to retrofit such buildings; only recently studies on their behaviour have become available and only a few of them address the issue of possible strengthening techniques for this kind of walls. In this scope, an innovative retrofitting technique (near surface mounted steel flat bars) is proposed and validated on traditional timber frame walls based on an extensive experimental program. The results of the static cyclic tests on distinct wall typologies retrofitted with the NSM technique are herein presented and discussed in detail. The main features on deformation, lateral stiffness, lateral resistance and seismic performance indexes are analysed

Evaluation of the DPMFoam solver

[Extrat] Multiphase flows are relevant in several industrial processes, thus the availability of accurate numerical modeling tools, able to support the design of products and processes, is of much significance. OpenFOAM version 2.3.x comprises a multiphase flow solver able to couple Eulerian and Lagrangian phases using the discrete particles method (DPM), the DPMFoam. In this work the DPMFoam solver is assessed by comparing its predictions with analytical results and experimental and simulated data available in the literature. They are results from Goldschmidt’s [1] and Hoomans’s [2] theses and the analytical Ergun equation. The goal was to define accuracy and performance of DPMFoam in general scientific or commercial applications. Obtained results demonstrate a good agreement with the reference simulation data and is within reasonable deviations from the experimental values. (...)

The Teggiolo zone: a key to the Helvetic-Penninic connection (stratigraphy and tectonics in the Val Bavona, Ticino, Central Alps)

The Teggiolo zone is the sedimentary cover of the Antigorio nappe, one of the lowest tectonic units of the Penninic Central Alps. Detailed mapping, stratigraphic and structural analyses, and comparisons with less metamorphic series in several well-studied domains of the Alps, provide a new stratigraphic interpretation. The Teggiolo zone is comprised of several sedimentary cycles, separated by erosive surfaces and large stratigraphic gaps, which cover the time span from Triassic to Eocene. At Mid-Jurassic times it appears as an uplifted, partially emergent block, marking the southern limit of the main Helvetic basin (the Limiting South-Helvetic Rise LSHR). The main mass of the Teggiolo calcschists, whose base truncates the Triassic-Jurassic cycles and can erode the Antigorio basement, consists of fine-grained clastic sediments analogous to the deep-water flyschoid deposits of Late Cretaceous to Eocene age in the North-Penninic (or Valais s.l.) basins. Thus the Antigorio-Teggiolo domain occupies a crucial paleogeographic position, on the boundary between the Helvetic and Penninic realms: from Triassic to Early Cretaceous its affinity is with the Helvetic; at the end of Cretaceous it is incorporated into the North-Penninic basins. An unexpected result is the discovery of the important role played by complex formations of wildflysch type at the top of the Teggiolo zone. They contain blocks of various sizes. According to their nature, three different associations are distinguished that have specific vertical and lateral distributions. These blocks give clues to the existence of territories that have disappeared from the present-day level of observation and impose constraints on the kinematics of early folding and embryonic nappe emplacement. Tectonics produced several phases of superimposed folds and schistosities, more in the metasediments than in the gneissic basement. Older deformations that predate the amplification of the frontal hinge of the nappe generated the dominant schistosity and the km-wide Vanzèla isoclinal fold.

Rare genomic structural variants in complex disease: lessons from the replication of associations with obesity.

The limited ability of common variants to account for the genetic contribution to complex disease has prompted searches for rare variants of large effect, to partly explain the 'missing heritability'. Analyses of genome-wide genotyping data have identified genomic structural variants (GSVs) as a source of such rare causal variants. Recent studies have reported multiple GSV loci associated with risk of obesity. We attempted to replicate these associations by similar analysis of two familial-obesity case-control cohorts and a population cohort, and detected GSVs at 11 out of 18 loci, at frequencies similar to those previously reported. Based on their reported frequencies and effect sizes (OR≥25), we had sufficient statistical power to detect the large majority (80%) of genuine associations at these loci. However, only one obesity association was replicated. Deletion of a 220 kb region on chromosome 16p11.2 has a carrier population frequency of 2×10(-4) (95% confidence interval [9.6×10(-5)-3.1×10(-4)]); accounts overall for 0.5% [0.19%-0.82%] of severe childhood obesity cases (P = 3.8×10(-10); odds ratio = 25.0 [9.9-60.6]); and results in a mean body mass index (BMI) increase of 5.8 kg.m(-2) [1.8-10.3] in adults from the general population. We also attempted replication using BMI as a quantitative trait in our population cohort; associations with BMI at or near nominal significance were detected at two further loci near KIF2B and within FOXP2, but these did not survive correction for multiple testing. These findings emphasise several issues of importance when conducting rare GSV association, including the need for careful cohort selection and replication strategy, accurate GSV identification, and appropriate correction for multiple testing and/or control of false discovery rate. Moreover, they highlight the potential difficulty in replicating rare CNV associations across different populations. Nevertheless, we show that such studies are potentially valuable for the identification of variants making an appreciable contribution to complex disease.

Linking Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) data to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC): the case for the Seychelles

Tobacco control has been recognized as a main public health concern in Seychelles for the past two decades. Tobacco advertising, sponsoring and promotion has been banned for years, tobacco products are submitted to high taxes, high-profile awareness programs are organized regularly, and several other control measures have been implemented. The Republic of Seychelles was the first country to ratify the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in the African region. Three population-based surveys have been conducted in adults in Seychelles and results showed a substantial decrease in the prevalence of smoking among adults between 1989 and 2004. A first survey in adolescents was conducted in Seychelles in 2002 (the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, GYTS) in a representative sample of 1321 girls and boys aged 13-15 years. The results show that approximately half of students had tried smoking and a quarter of both boys and girls had smoked at least one cigarette during the past 30 days. Although "current smoking" is defined differently in adolescents (>or=1 cigarette during the past 30 days) and in adults (>or=1 cigarette per day), which precludes direct comparison, the high smoking prevalence in youth in Seychelles likely predicts an increasing prevalence of tobacco use in the next adult generation, particularly in women. GYTS 2002 also provides important data on a wide range of specific individual and societal factors influencing tobacco use. Hence, GYTS can be a powerful tool for monitoring the situation of tobacco use in adolescents, for highlighting the need for new policy and programs, and for evaluating the impact of current and future programs.

The Estimation of Technical Efficiency Effects Models with an Example Applied to the Thai Manufacturing Sector

This paper does two things. First, it presents alternative approaches to the standard methods of estimating productive efficiency using a production function. It favours a parametric approach (viz. the stochastic production frontier approach) over a nonparametric approach (e.g. data envelopment analysis); and, further, one that provides a statistical explanation of efficiency, as well as an estimate of its magnitude. Second, it illustrates the favoured approach (i.e. the ‘single stage procedure’) with estimates of two models of explained inefficiency, using data from the Thai manufacturing sector, after the crisis of 1997. Technical efficiency is modelled as being dependent on capital investment in three major areas (viz. land, machinery and office appliances) where land is intended to proxy the effects of unproductive, speculative capital investment; and both machinery and office appliances are intended to proxy the effects of productive, non-speculative capital investment. The estimates from these models cast new light on the five-year long, post-1997 crisis period in Thailand, suggesting a structural shift from relatively labour intensive to relatively capital intensive production in manufactures from 1998 to 2002.

Analog Modelling of N-S anticlines of the External Sierras (Jaca basin, Southern Pyrenees)

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Uppsala Universitet, Sweden, from April to July the 2007. Two series of analogue models are used to explore ductile-frictional contrasts of the basal décollement in the development of oblique and transverse structures simultaneously to thin-skinned shortening. These models simulate the evolution of the Central External Sierras (Southern Pyrenees, Spain), which constitute the frontal emerging part of the southernmost Pyrenean thrust sheet. They are characterized by the presence of transverse N-S to NW-SE anticlines, which are perpendicular to the Pyrenean structural trend and developed in the hangingwall of the Santo Domingo thrust system, detaching on an unevenly distributed Triassic materials (evaporitic-dolomitic interfingerings). Model setup performs a décollement made by three patches of silicone neighbouring pure brittle sand. Model series A test the thickness ratio between overburden and décollement. Model series B test the width of frictional detachment areas. Model results show how deformation reaches further in areas detached on ductile layer whereas frictional décollement areas assimilate the strain by means of an additional uplift. This replicates the structural style of Central External Sierras: higher structural relief of N-S anticlines with regard to orogen-parallel structures, absence of a representative ductile décollement in the core, tilting towards the orogen and foreland-side closure not thrusted by the frontal emerging South-Pyrenean thrust.

Sparse regularization for fiber ODF reconstruction: from the suboptimality of ℓ2 and ℓ1 priors to ℓ0.

Diffusion MRI is a well established imaging modality providing a powerful way to probe the structure of the white matter non-invasively. Despite its potential, the intrinsic long scan times of these sequences have hampered their use in clinical practice. For this reason, a large variety of methods have been recently proposed to shorten the acquisition times. Among them, spherical deconvolution approaches have gained a lot of interest for their ability to reliably recover the intra-voxel fiber configuration with a relatively small number of data samples. To overcome the intrinsic instabilities of deconvolution, these methods use regularization schemes generally based on the assumption that the fiber orientation distribution (FOD) to be recovered in each voxel is sparse. The well known Constrained Spherical Deconvolution (CSD) approach resorts to Tikhonov regularization, based on an ℓ(2)-norm prior, which promotes a weak version of sparsity. Also, in the last few years compressed sensing has been advocated to further accelerate the acquisitions and ℓ(1)-norm minimization is generally employed as a means to promote sparsity in the recovered FODs. In this paper, we provide evidence that the use of an ℓ(1)-norm prior to regularize this class of problems is somewhat inconsistent with the fact that the fiber compartments all sum up to unity. To overcome this ℓ(1) inconsistency while simultaneously exploiting sparsity more optimally than through an ℓ(2) prior, we reformulate the reconstruction problem as a constrained formulation between a data term and a sparsity prior consisting in an explicit bound on the ℓ(0)norm of the FOD, i.e. on the number of fibers. The method has been tested both on synthetic and real data. Experimental results show that the proposed ℓ(0) formulation significantly reduces modeling errors compared to the state-of-the-art ℓ(2) and ℓ(1) regularization approaches.

Acute pain in adults admitted to the emergency room: development and implementation of abbreviated guidelines.

AIM: Although acute pain is frequently reported by patients admitted to the emergency room, it is often insufficiently evaluated by physicians and is thus undertreated. With the aim of improving the care of adult patients with acute pain, we developed and implemented abbreviated clinical practice guidelines (CG) for the staff of nurses and physicians in our hospital's emergency room. METHODS: Our algorithm is based upon the practices described in the international literature and uses a simultaneous approach of treating acute pain in a rapid and efficacious manner along with diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. RESULTS: Pain was assessed using either a visual analogue scale (VAS) or a numerical rating scale (NRS) at ER admission and again during the hospital stay. Patients were treated with paracetamol and/or NSAID (VAS/NRS <4) or intravenous morphine (VAS/NRS > or =04). The algorithm also outlines a specific approach for patients with headaches to minimise the risks inherent to a non-specific treatment. In addition, our algorithm addresses the treatment of paroxysmal pain in patients with chronic pain as well as acute pain in drug addicts. It also outlines measures for pain prevention prior to minor diagnostic or therapeutic procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Based on published guidelines, an abbreviated clinical algorithm (AA) was developed and its simple format permitted a widespread implementation. In contrast to international guidelines, our algorithm favours giving nursing staff responsibility for decision making aspects of pain assessment and treatment in emergency room patients.

IPH response to DSD consultation on proposed changes to the law regulating sale and supply of alcohol

This consultation was intended to test public opinion on proposed changes to the law regulating the sale of alcohol in Northern Ireland. The proposed changes relate to-    regulating the sale of alcohol in supermarkets and off-sales premises-    regulating the sale of alcohol in pubs and other on-sales premises-    regulating private member clubs-    codes of practice Key points from IPH response -    IPH welcomes the opportunity to submit our views on this review of regulations related to the sale and supply of alcohol in Northern Ireland. IPH notes that the reduction of alcohol-related harm is a stated aim of the review. -    International evidence clearly supports the role of regulation of the sale and supply of alcohol in reducing alcohol consumption and in reducing alcohol-related harm. -    The consultation document does not present any meaningful estimation of the scale or nature of potential positive or negative effects on alcohol-related harm arising from the proposed changes. On this basis, IPH recommends that a Health Impact Assessment should be conducted on the proposed regulations. -    IPH shares the concerns raised in respect of increases in the number of people drinking at home and the availability of large volumes of low cost alcohol in supermarkets. In this regard, we welcome the proposals to enhance the regulation of sale of alcohol in mixed trading premises by more stringent structural separation measures and restricted advertising. -    IPH wishes to emphasise the importance of the work underway to explore the introduction of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on the island of Ireland as this measure will be significant in enhancing the proposals on regulating sale of alcohol in mixed trading premises -    In light of evidence of increased alcohol consumption and harm associated with increased hours and days of sale of alcohol, IPH does not support the proposal to introduce additional late opening hours or extended drinking up time.

Diffusion spectrum imaging shows the structural basis of functional cerebellar circuits in the human cerebellum in vivo.

BACKGROUND: The cerebellum is a complex structure that can be affected by several congenital and acquired diseases leading to alteration of its function and neuronal circuits. Identifying the structural bases of cerebellar neuronal networks in humans in vivo may provide biomarkers for diagnosis and management of cerebellar diseases. OBJECTIVES: To define the anatomy of intrinsic and extrinsic cerebellar circuits using high-angular resolution diffusion spectrum imaging (DSI). METHODS: We acquired high-resolution structural MRI and DSI of the cerebellum in four healthy female subjects at 3T. DSI tractography based on a streamline algorithm was performed to identify the circuits connecting the cerebellar cortex with the deep cerebellar nuclei, selected brainstem nuclei, and the thalamus. RESULTS: Using in-vivo DSI in humans we were able to demonstrate the structure of the following cerebellar neuronal circuits: (1) connections of the inferior olivary nucleus with the cerebellar cortex, and with the deep cerebellar nuclei (2) connections between the cerebellar cortex and the deep cerebellar nuclei, (3) connections of the deep cerebellar nuclei conveyed in the superior (SCP), middle (MCP) and inferior (ICP) cerebellar peduncles, (4) complex intersections of fibers in the SCP, MCP and ICP, and (5) connections between the deep cerebellar nuclei and the red nucleus and the thalamus. CONCLUSION: For the first time, we show that DSI tractography in humans in vivo is capable of revealing the structural bases of complex cerebellar networks. DSI thus appears to be a promising imaging method for characterizing anatomical disruptions that occur in cerebellar diseases, and for monitoring response to therapeutic interventions.

Host nutritional status as a contributory factor to the remodeling of schistosomal hepatic fibrosis

Weaning Swiss mice were percutaneously infected with 30 cercariae of Schistosoma mansoni and submitted to a shifting either from a deficient to a balanced diet or vice-versa, for 24 weeks. The nutritional status was weekly evaluated by measurements of growth curves and food intake. Hepatic fibrosis and periovular granulomas were studied by histological, morphometric and biochemical methods. All mice fed on a deficient diet failed to develop periportal "pipestem" fibrosis after chronic infection. An unexpected finding was the absence of pipestem fibrosis in mice on normal diet, probably related to the sample size. The lower values for nutritional parameters were mainly due to the deficient diet, rather than to infection. Liver/body weight ratio was higher in "early undernutrition" group, after shifting to the balanced diet. Volume density and numerical density of egg granulomas reached lowest values in undernourished animals. The amount of collagen was reduced in undernourished mice, attaining higher concentrations in well-fed controls and in "late undernutrition" (balanced diet shifted to a deficient one), where collagen deposition appeared increased in granulomas. That finding suggested interference with collagen degradation and resorption in "late" undernourished animals. Thus, host nutritional status plays a role in connective tissue changes of hepatic schistosomiasis in mice.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.