An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Aruba

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on Aruba. This study has three main objectives. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply of tourism in Aruba. The second is to forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2050 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the Business as Usual (BAU) as a comparator climate scenario, and the third is to estimate the cost of adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by Aruba to address climate change in the tourism sector.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Curacao

In this study, an attempt is made to estimate the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the (former) Netherlands Antilles. There are three main objectives in this study. The first is to examine the factors that influence the demand and supply of tourism in Netherlands Antilles. The second is to forecast the cost of climate change to the tourism sector until 2050 under the A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the (Business as Usual) as a comparator climate scenario, and the third is to estimate the cost of adaptation and mitigation strategies that can be undertaken by the tourism sector in the Netherlands Antilles to address climate change.

Overweight and obesity in relation to socio-economic status, tobacco smoking and plant food supplements usage

Programa de doctorado: Salud Pública (Epidemiología, Planificación y Nutrición)

Essays on European economic and monetary integration

This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.

Reproduction and maternal health care among young women in Kenya: geographic and socio-economic determinants

Many factors influence the propensity of young women to seek appropriate maternal healthcare, and they need to be considered when analyzing these women’s reproductive behavior. This study aimed to contribute to the analysis concerning Kenyan young women’s determinants on maternal healthcare-seeking behavior for the 5 years preceding the 2008/9 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. The specific objectives were to: investigate the individual and contextual variables that may explain maternal healthcare habits; measure the individual, household and community effect on maternal healthcare attitudes in young women; assess the link between young women’s characteristics and the use of facilities for maternal healthcare; find a relationship between young women’s behavior and the community where they live; examine how the role of the local presence of healthcare facilities influences reproductive behavior, and if the specificity of services offered by healthcare facilities affects their inclination to use healthcare facilities, and measure the geographic differences that influence the propensity to seek appropriate maternal healthcare. The analysis of factors associated with maternal healthcare-seeking behavior for young women in Kenya was investigated using multilevel models. We performed three major analyses, which concerned the individual and contextual determinants influencing antenatal care (discussed in Part 6), delivery care (Part 7), and postnatal care (Part 8). Our results show that there is a significant variation in antenatal, delivery and postnatal care between communities, even if the majority of variability is explained by individual characteristics. There are differences at the women’s level on the probability of receiving antenatal care and delivering in a healthcare facility instead of at home. Moreover, community factors and availability of healthcare facilities on the territory are also crucial in influencing young women’s behavior. Therefore, policies addressed to youth’s reproductive health should also consider geographic inequalities and different types of barriers in access to healthcare facilities.

Sustainable development in Darjeeling Hills, India : ecological and socio-economic aspects for small-scale farmers with supportive observations from Kanagawa, Japan

Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.

Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

Anomic Crime in Post-Welfarist Societies. Cult of the Individual, Integration Patterns and Delinquency

Post-Fordist economies come along with post-welfarist societies marked by intensified cultural individualism and increased structural inequalities. These conditions are commonly held to be conducive to relative deprivation and, thereby, anomic crime. At the same time, post-welfarist societies develop a new ‘balance of power’ between institutions providing for welfare regulation, such as the family, the state and the (labour) market – and also the penal system. These institutions are generally expected to improve social integration, ensure conformity and thus reduce anomic crime. Combining both perspectives, we analyse the effects of moral individualism, social inequality, and different integration strategies on crime rates in contemporary societies through the lenses of anomie theory. To test our hypotheses, we draw on time-series cross-section data compiled from different data sources (OECD, UN, WHO, WDI) for twenty developed countries in the period 1970-2004, and run multiple regressions that control for country-specific effects. Although we find some evidence that the mismatch between cultural ideal (individual inclusion) and structural reality (stratified exclusion) increases the anomic pressure, whereas conservative (i. e. family-based), social-democratic (i. e. state-based) and liberal (i. e. market-based) integration strategies to a certain extent prove effective in controlling the incidence of crime, the results are not very robust. Moreover, reservations have to be made regarding the effects of “market” income inequality as well as familialist, unionist and liberalist employment policies that are shown to have reversed effects in our sample: the former reducing, the latter occasionally increasing anomic crime. As expected, the mismatch between cultural ideal (individual inclusion) and structural reality (stratified exclusion) increases the anomic pressure, whereas conservative (i. e. family-based), social-democratic (i. e. state-based) and liberal (i. e. market-based) integration strategies generally prove effective in controlling the incidence of crime. Nevertheless, we conclude that the new cult of the individual undermines the effectiveness of conservative and social-democratic integration strategies and drives societies towards more “liberal” regimes that build on incentive as well as punitive elements.

Socio-Economic Perspectives on Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Laos

Despite the rapid agricultural transition that has occurred in the past decade, shifting cultivation remains a widespread agricultural practice in the northern uplands of Lao PDR. Little information is available on the basic socio-economic situation and respective possible patterns in shifting cultivation landscapes on a regional level. On the basis of a recent approximation of the extent of shifting cultivation landscapes for two time periods and disaggregated village level census data, this paper characterizes these landscapes in terms of key socioeconomic parameters for the whole of northern Laos. Results showed that over 550,000 people live in shifting cultivation regions. The poverty rate of this population of 46.5 % is considerably higher than the national rural rate. Most shifting cultivation landscapes are located in remote locations and a high share of the population comprises ethnic minorities, pointing to multi-dimensional marginality of these areas. We discuss whether economic growth and increased market accessibility are sufficient to lift these landscapes out of poverty.

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Theorizing positioning strategies of secondary capital cities

Capital cities that are not the economic centers of their nations – so-called secondary capital cities (SSCs) – tend to be overlooked in the field of political science. Consequentially, there is a lack of research and resulting theory describing their political economy. This paper proposes a comparative research framework which analyzes how external pressures are influencing the relevant policy makers in the process of (re)positioning the SCC.

Neighbourhood socio-economic position, late presentation and outcomes in people living with HIV in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: Inequalities and inequities in health are an important public health concern. In Switzerland, mortality in the general population varies according to the socio-economic position (SEP) of neighbourhoods. We examined the influence of neighbourhood SEP on presentation and outcomes in HIV-positive individuals in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: The neighbourhood SEP of patients followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) 2000-2013 was obtained on the basis of 2000 census data on the 50 nearest households (education and occupation of household head, rent, mean number of persons per room). We used Cox and logistic regression models to examine the probability of late presentation, virologic response to cART, loss to follow-up and death across quintiles of neighbourhood SEP. RESULTS: A total of 4489 SHCS participants were included. Presentation with advanced disease [CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl or AIDS] and with AIDS was less common in neighbourhoods of higher SEP: the age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of SEP was 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.58-0.87] and 0.59 (95% CI 0.45-0.77), respectively. An undetectable viral load at 6 months of cART was more common in the highest than in the lowest quintile (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04). Loss to follow-up, mortality and causes of death were not associated with neighbourhood SEP. CONCLUSION: Late presentation was more common and virologic response to cART less common in HIV-positive individuals living in neighbourhoods of lower SEP, but in contrast to the general population, there was no clear trend for mortality.

Dynamics of Traditional Ecological Knowledge, Local Use and Conservation of Native Trees and Shrubs in the Bolivian Andes

Native trees and shrubs are essential components of rural landscapes in the semi-arid inner-Andean valleys of Bolivia. They can be found as hedges and bushes in various agroecosystems such as terrace walls, slopes, field boundaries and fallow land. Their distribution and floristic composition are the result of dynamic spatial and temporal interactions between local farmers and the environment. Local uses of natural resources and biodiversity reflect the constantly evolving Andean culture, which can be generally characterised as an intertwining of the human, natural, and spiritual worlds. The aim of the present ethnobotanical study was to analyse the dynamics of traditional ecological knowledge, to ascertain local farmers’ perceptions and uses of native woody species in Andean communities and to associate the results with local conservation activities for the trees and shrubs concerned. Our case study was carried out within two communities of the Tunari National Park (Dept. Cochabamba) in Bolivia. For data collection, research methods from social science (semi-structured interviews, participative observation, participatory mapping) as well as vegetation surveys were combined. Local actors included women and men of all ages as well as families from different social categories and altitudinal levels of permanent residence. Our study indicates that, due to a multitude of socio-economic pressures (e.g. migration of young people) as well as changes in use of biodiversity (e.g. replacement of native by exotic introduced species), the traditional ecological knowledge base of native trees and shrubs and their respective uses has become diminished over time. In many cases it has led to a decline in people’s awareness of native species and as a consequence their practical, emotional and spiritual relationships with them have been lost. However, results also show that applied traditional ecological knowledge has led to local conservation strategies, which have succeeded in protecting those tree and shrub species which are most widely regarded for their multifunctional, constant and exclusive uses (e.g. Schinus molle, Prosopis laevigata, Baccharis dracunculifolia). The presentation will discuss the question if and how applied traditional ecological knowledge positively contributes to local initiatives of sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity in rural areas.