A estrutura da narrativa na escrita dos alunos surdos

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Ciências da Educação - Especialização em Educação Especial

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Analysis of tongue shape and motion in speech production using statistical modeling

The mechanisms of speech production are complex and have been raising attention from researchers of both medical and computer vision fields. In the speech production mechanism, the articulator’s study is a complex issue, since they have a high level of freedom along this process, namely the tongue, which instigates a problem in its control and observation. In this work it is automatically characterized the tongues shape during the articulation of the oral vowels of Portuguese European by using statistical modeling on MR-images. A point distribution model is built from a set of images collected during artificially sustained articulations of Portuguese European sounds, which can extract the main characteristics of the motion of the tongue. The model built in this work allows under standing more clearly the dynamic speech events involved during sustained articulations. The tongue shape model built can also be useful for speech rehabilitation purposes, specifically to recognize the compensatory movements of the articulators during speech production.

The invisible factors that can make the difference. Language management and knowledge transfer in multinational sites

The knowledge-based society we live in has stressed the importance of human capital and brought talent to the top of most wanted skills, especially to companies who want to succeed in turbulent environments worldwide. In fact, streams, sequences of decisions and resource commitments characterize the day-to-day of multinational companies (MNCs). Such decision-making activities encompass major strategic moves like internationalization and new market entries or diversification and acquisitions. In most companies, these strategic decisions are extensively discussed and debated and are generally framed, formulated, and articulated in specialized language often developed by the best minds in the company. Yet the language used in such deliberations, in detailing and enacting the implementation strategy is usually taken for granted and receives little if any explicit attention (Brannen & Doz, 2012) an can still be a “forgotten factor” (Marschan et al. 1997). Literature on language management and international business refers to lack of awareness of business managers of the impact that language can have not only in communication effectiveness but especially in knowledge transfer and knowledge management in business environments. In the context of MNCs, management is, for many different reasons, more complex and demanding than that of a national company, mainly because of diversity factors inherent to internationalization, namely geographical and cultural spaces, i.e, varied mindsets. Moreover, the way of functioning, and managing language, of the MNC depends on its vision, its values and its internationalization model, i.e on in the way the MNE adapts to and controls the new markets, which can vary essentially from a more ethnocentric to a more pluricentric focus. Regardless of the internationalization model followed by the MNC, communication between different business units is essential to achieve unity in diversity and business sustainability. For the business flow and prosperity, inter-subsidiary, intra-company and company-client (customers, suppliers, governments, municipalities, etc..) communication must work in various directions and levels of the organization. If not well managed, this diversity can be a barrier to global coordination and create turbulent environments, even if a good technological support is available (Feely et al., 2002: 4). According to Marchan-Piekkari (1999) the tongue can be both (i) a barrier, (ii) a facilitator and (iii) a source of power. Moreover, the lack of preparation for the barriers of linguistic diversity can lead to various costs, including negotiations’ failure and failure on internationalization.. On the other hand, communication and language fluency is not just a message transfer procedure, but above all a knowledge transfer process, which requires extra-linguistic skills (persuasion, assertiveness …) in order to promote credibility of both parties. For this reason, MNCs need a common code to communicate and trade information inside and outside the company, which will require one or more strategies, in order to overcome possible barriers and organization distortions.

Temporal lobe epilepsy in childhood – a study model of auditory processing

TLE in infancy has been the subject of varied research. Topographical and structural evidence is coincident with the neuronal systems responsible for auditory processing of the highest specialization and complexity. Recent studies have been showing the need of a hemispheric asymmetry for an optimization in central auditory processing (CAP) and acquisition and learning of a language system. A new functional research paradigm is required to study mental processes that require methods of cognitive-sensory information analysis processed in very short periods of time (msec), such as the ERPs. Thus, in this article, we hypothesize that the TLE in infancy could be a good model for topographic and functional study of CAP and its development process, contributing to a better understanding of the learning difficulties that children with this neurological disorder have.

From simulation to statistical analysis: timeliness assessment of ethernet/IP-based distributed systems

A number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor distributed real-time applications. Full-duplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional Fieldbus networks? Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. In the past few years, it is particularly significant the considerable amount of work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness at a holistic level. To this end, we are addressing a few inter-linked research topics with the purpose of setting a framework for the development of tools suitable to extract temporal properties of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is being applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. In this paper, we reason about the modelling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide usable results. Discrete event simulation models of a distributed system can be a powerful tool for the timeliness evaluation of the overall system, but particular care must be taken with the results provided by traditional statistical analysis techniques.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Petri net model decomposition - a model based approach supporting distributed execution

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica, Especialidade de Sistemas Digitais, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Using perspective schema and a reference model to design the ETL process

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática

Formal Contracts for Runtime Verification Support in the Ada Programming Language

Poster presented in The 28th GI/ITG International Conference on Architecture of Computing Systems (ARCS 2015). 24 to 26, Mar, 2015. Porto, Portugal.

Model of a specialized bidirectional dictionary for German and Portuguese

Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Terminologia e Gestão da Informação de Especialidade

A Methodology for Creating an Adapted Command Language for Driving an Intelligent Wheelchair

Intelligent wheelchairs (IW) are technologies that can increase the autonomy and independence of elderly people and patients suffering from some kind of disability. Nowadays the intelligent wheelchairs and the human-machine studies are very active research areas. This paper presents a methodology and a Data Analysis System (DAS) that provides an adapted command language to an user of the IW. This command language is a set of input sequences that can be created using inputs from an input device or a combination of the inputs available in a multimodal interface. The results show that there are statistical evidences to affirm that the mean of the evaluation of the DAS generated command language is higher than the mean of the evaluation of the command language recommended by the health specialist (p value = 0.002) with a sample of 11 cerebral palsy users. This work demonstrates that it is possible to adapt an intelligent wheelchair interface to the user even when the users present heterogeneous and severe physical constraints.

A framework for supporting knowledge representation – an ontological based approach

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.