The corruption risks of EU funds in Hungary

In corruption, a group of players gain an economic advantage without providing any socially beneficial services in return, therefore corruption is considered to be a form of rent-seeking. Similar to other forms of rent-seeking, corruption causes losses on a societal level, due to the less efficient allocation of resources, as well as the costs of operation and prosecution. Fighting corruption is important not just because of ethical but also economic considerations. Contributions from the European Union are making possible the use of more funds than ever, and spending the full amount of this money is a priority preference of the government. The abundance of funds and the pressure on absorption increase corruption, by the managers of the funds overplanning the amount of money to be allocated to individual tender invitations, setting generous rules on eligible costs, and specifying low rates of own contribution wherever possible. As a result, the opportunities for rent-seeking are increased, as it is worth it for beneficiaries to carry out the project even after relinquishing part of the funds they have been awarded. Thus, the abundance of funds generates a sphere of corruption in which rent-seekers may appear on various levels of the system, often even without the knowledge or approval of those on higher decisionmaking levels.

Determinants of local government pension funding: Empirical evidence from Florida

The financial community is well aware that continued underfunding of state and local government pension plans poses many public policy and fiduciary management concerns. However, a well-defined theoretical rationale has not been developed to explain why and how public sector pension plans underfund. This study uses three methods: a survey of national pension experts, an incomplete covariance panel method, and field interviews.^ A survey of national public sector pension experts was conducted to provide a conceptual framework by which underfunding could be evaluated. Experts suggest that plan design, fiscal stress, and political culture factors impact underfunding. However, experts do not agree with previous research findings that unions actively pursue underfunding to secure current wage increases.^ Within the conceptual framework and determinants identified by experts, several empirical regularities are documented for the first time. Analysis of 173 local government pension plans, observed from 1987 to 1992, was conducted. Findings indicate that underfunding occurs in plans that have lower retirement ages, increased costs due to benefit enhancements, when the sponsor faces current year operating deficits, or when a local government relies heavily on inelastic revenue sources. Results also suggest that elected officials artificially inflate interest rate assumptions to reduce current pension costs, consequently shifting these costs to future generations. In concurrence with some experts there is no data to support the assumption that highly unionized employees secure more funding than less unionized employees.^ Empirical results provide satisfactory but not overwhelming statistical power, and only minor predictive capacity. To further explore why underfunding occurs, field interviews were carried out with 62 local government officials. Practitioners indicated that perceived fiscal stress, the willingness of policymakers to advance funding, bargaining strategies used by union officials, apathy by employees and retirees, pension board composition, and the level of influence by internal pension experts has an impact on funding outcomes.^ A pension funding process model was posited by triangulating the expert survey, empirical findings, and field survey results. The funding process model should help shape and refine our theoretical knowledge of state and local government pension underfunding in the future. ^

An investigation of location effect on trip production using artificial neural networks

As traffic congestion exuberates and new roadway construction is severely constrained because of limited availability of land, high cost of land acquisition, and communities' opposition to the building of major roads, new solutions have to be sought to either make roadway use more efficient or reduce travel demand. There is a general agreement that travel demand is affected by land use patterns. However, traditional aggregate four-step models, which are the prevailing modeling approach presently, assume that traffic condition will not affect people's decision on whether to make a trip or not when trip generation is estimated. Existing survey data indicate, however, that differences exist in trip rates for different geographic areas. The reasons for such differences have not been carefully studied, and the success of quantifying the influence of land use on travel demand beyond employment, households, and their characteristics has been limited to be useful to the traditional four-step models. There may be a number of reasons, such as that the representation of influence of land use on travel demand is aggregated and is not explicit and that land use variables such as density and mix and accessibility as measured by travel time and congestion have not been adequately considered. This research employs the artificial neural network technique to investigate the potential effects of land use and accessibility on trip productions. Sixty two variables that may potentially influence trip production are studied. These variables include demographic, socioeconomic, land use and accessibility variables. Different architectures of ANN models are tested. Sensitivity analysis of the models shows that land use does have an effect on trip production, so does traffic condition. The ANN models are compared with linear regression models and cross-classification models using the same data. The results show that ANN models are better than the linear regression models and cross-classification models in terms of RMSE. Future work may focus on finding a representation of traffic condition with existing network data and population data which might be available when the variables are needed to in prediction.

Rapid responses of vegetation to hydrological changes in Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park, Florida, USA

We analyzed the dynamics of freshwater marsh vegetation of Taylor Slough in eastern Everglades National Park for the 1979 to 2003 period, focusing on cover of individual plant species and on cover and composition of marsh communities in areas potentially influenced by a canal pump station (‘‘S332’’) and its successor station (‘‘S332D’’). Vegetation change analysis incorporated the hydrologic record at these sites for three intervals: pre-S332 (1961–1980), S332 (1980–1999), post-S332 (1999–2002). During S332 and post-S332 intervals, water level in Taylor Slough was affected by operations of S332 and S332D. To relate vegetation change to plot-level hydrological conditions in Taylor Slough, we developed a weighted averaging regression and calibration model (WA) using data from the marl prairies of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. We examined vegetation pattern along five transects. Transects 1–3 were established in 1979 south of the water delivery structures, and were influenced by their operations. Transects 4 and 5 were established in 1997, the latter west of these structures and possibly under their influence. Transect 4 was established in the northern drainage basin of Taylor Slough, beyond the likely zones of influence of S332 and S332D. The composition of all three southern transects changed similarly after 1979. Where muhly grass (Muhlenbergia capillaris var. filipes) was once dominant, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), replaced it, while where sawgrass initially predominated, hydric species such as spikerush (Eleocharis cellulosa Torr.) overtook it. Most of the changes in species dominance in Transects 1–3 occurred after 1992, were mostly in place by 1995–1996, and continued through 1999, indicating how rapidly vegetation in seasonal Everglades marshes can respond to hydrological modifications. During the post-S332 period, these long-term trends began reversing. In the two northern transects, total cover and dominance of both muhly grass and sawgrass increased from 1997 to 2003. Thus, during the 1990’s, vegetation composition south of S332 became more like that of long hydroperiod marshes, but afterward it partially returned to its 1979 condition, i.e., a community characteristic of less prolonged flooding. In contrast, the vegetation change along the two northern transects since 1997 showed little relationship to hydrologic status.

Lake metabolism and the diel oxygen technique: State of the science

Significant improvements have been made in estimating gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP) from diel, “free-water” changes in dissolved oxygen (DO). Here we evaluate some of the assumptions and uncertainties that are still embedded in the technique and provide guidelines on how to estimate reliable metabolic rates from high-frequency sonde data. True whole-system estimates are often not obtained because measurements reflect an unknown zone of influence which varies over space and time. A minimum logging frequency of 30 min was sufficient to capture metabolism at the daily time scale. Higher sampling frequencies capture additional pattern in the DO data, primarily related to physical mixing. Causes behind the often large daily variability are discussed and evaluated for an oligotrophic and a eutrophic lake. Despite a 3-fold higher day-to-day variability in absolute GPP rates in the eutrophic lake, both lakes required at least 3 sonde days per week for GPP estimates to be within 20% of the weekly average. A sensitivity analysis evaluated uncertainties associated with DO measurements, piston velocity (k), and the assumption that daytime R equals nighttime R. In low productivity lakes, uncertainty in DO measurements and piston velocity strongly impacts R but has no effect on GPP or NEP. Lack of accounting for higher R during the day underestimates R and GPP but has no effect on NEP. We finally provide suggestions for future research to improve the technique.

The World Trade Organization, competition policy, and developing countries: A cross -country examination of domestic policy actions

This dissertation addresses the following research question: in a particular policy area, why do countries that display unanimity in their international policy behavior diverge from each other in their domestic policy actions? I address this question in the context of the divergent domestic competition policy actions undertaken by developing countries during the period 1996-2007, after these countries had quite conspicuously displayed near-unanimity in opposing this policy measure at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This divergence is puzzling because (a) it does not align with their near-unanimous behavior at the WTO over competition policy and (b) it is at variance with the objectives of their international opposition to this policy at the WTO. Using an interdisciplinary approach, this dissertation examines the factors responsible for this divergence in the domestic competition policy actions of developing countries. ^ The theoretical structure employed in this study is the classic second-image-reversed framework in international relations theory that focuses on the domestic developments in various countries following an international development. Methodologically, I employ both quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis to ascertain the nature of the relationship between the dependent variable and the eight explanatory variables that were identified from existing literature. The data on some of the key variables used in this dissertation was uniquely created over a multi-year period through extensive online research and represents the most comprehensive and updated dataset currently available. ^ The quantitative results obtained from logistic regression using data on 131 countries point toward the significant role played by international organizations in engineering change in this policy area in developing countries. The qualitative analysis consisting of three country case studies illuminate the channels of influence of the explanatory variables and highlight the role of domestic-level factors in these three carefully selected countries. After integrating the findings from the quantitative and qualitative analyses, I conclude that a mix of international- and domestic-level variables explains the divergence in domestic competition policy actions among developing countries. My findings also confirm the argument of the second-image-reversed framework that, given an international development or situation, the policy choices that states make can differ from each other and are mediated by domestic-level factors. ^

Sandcastles of hope? Civil society organizations and the working conditions of migrant farmworkers in North America

This research explores whether civil society organizations (CSOs) can contribute to more effectively regulating the working conditions of temporary migrant farmworkers in North America. This dissertation unfolds in five parts. The first part of the dissertation sets out the background context. The context includes the political economy of agriculture and temporary migrant labour more broadly. It also includes the political economy of the legal regulations that govern immigration and work relations. The second part of the research builds an analytical model for studying the operation of CSOs active in working with the migrant farmworker population. The purpose of the analytical framework is to make sense of real-world examples by providing categories for analysis and a means to get at the channels of influence that CSOs utilize to achieve their aims. To this end, the model incorporates the insights from three significant bodies of literature—regulatory studies, labour studies, and economic sociology. The third part of the dissertation suggests some key strategic issues that CSOs should consider when intervening to assist migrant farmworkers, and also proposes a series of hypotheses about how CSOs can participate in the regulatory process. The fourth part probes and extends these hypotheses by empirically investigating the operation of three CSOs that are currently active in assisting migrant farm workers in North America: the Agricultural Workers Alliance (Canada), Global Workers’ Justice Alliance (USA), and the Coalition of Immokalee Workers (USA). The fifth and final part draws together lessons from the empirical work and concluded that CSOs can fill gaps left by the waning power of actors, such as trade unions and labour inspectorates, as well as act in ways that these traditional actors can not.

The Communicative Dimension and Security in Asia-Pacific: A communicative-viewing proposal for reform of the Japanese Intelligence Services

The postwar development of the Intelligence Services in Japan has been based on two contrasting models: the centralized model of the USA and the collegiality of UK, neither of which has been fully developed. This has led to clashes of institutional competencies and poor anticipation of threats towards national security. This problem of opposing models has been partially overcome through two dimensions: externally through the cooperation with the US Intelligence Service under the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security; and internally though the pre-eminence in the national sphere of the Department of Public Safety. However, the emergence of a new global communicative dimension requires that a communicative-viewing remodeling of this dual model is necessary due to the increasing capacity of the individual actors to determine the dynamics of international events. This article examines these challenges for the Intelligence Services of Japan and proposes a reform based on this new global communicative dimension.

The making of professionals: Embedded civil society development in a transition country

The paper addresses the development of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in transition settings. Caught in the balance of knowledge exchange and translation of ideas from abroad, organisations in turbulent setting legitimise their existence by learning through professional networks. By association, organisational actors gain acknowledgement by their sector by traversing the corridors of influence provided by international partnerships. What they learn is how to conduct themselves as agents of change in society, and how to deliver on stated missions and goals, therefore, legitimising their presence in a budding civil society at home. The paper presents a knowledge production and learning practices framework which indicates a presence of dual identity of NGOs - their “embeddedness” locally and internationally. Selected framework dimensions and qualitative case study themes are discussed with respect to the level of independence of organisational actors in the East from their partners in the West in a post-socialist context. A professional global civil society as organisations are increasingly managed in similar, professional ways (Anheier & Themudo 2002). Here knowledge “handling” and knowledge “translation” take place through partnership exchanges fostering capable and/or competitive change-inducing institutions (Czarniawska & Sevon 2005; Hwang & Suarez 2005). How professional identity presents itself in the third sector, as well as the sector’s claim to expertise, need further attention, adding to ongoing discussions on professions in institutional theory (Hwang & Powell 2005; Scott 2008; Noordegraaf 2011). A conceptual framework on the dynamic involved for the construction professional fields follows: • Multiple case analysis provides a taxonomy for understanding what is happening in knowledge transition, adaptation, and organisational learning capacity for NGOs with respect to their role in a networked civil society. With the model we can observe the types of knowledge produced and learning employed by organisations. • There are elements of professionalisation in third sector work organisational activity with respect to its accreditation, sources and routines of learning, knowledge claims, interaction with the statutory sector, recognition in cross-sector partnerships etc. • It signals that there is a dual embeddedness in the development of the sector at the core to the shaping the sector’s professional status. This is instrumental in the NGOs’ goal to gain influence as institutions, as they are only one part of a cross-sector mission to address complex societal problems The case study material highlights nuances of knowledge production and learning practices in partnerships, with dual embeddedness a main feature of the findings. This provides some clues to how professionalisation as expert-making takes shape in organisations: • Depending on the type of organisations’ purpose, over its course of development there is an increase in participation in multiple networks, as opposed to reliance on a single strategic partner for knowledge artefacts and practices; • Some types of organisations are better connected within international and national networks than others and there seem to be preferences for each depending on the area of work; • The level of interpretation or adaptation of the knowledge artefacts is related to an organisation’s embeddedness locally, in turn giving it more influence within the network of key institutions; An overreaching theme across taxonomy categories (Table 1)is “professionalisation” or developing organisational “expertise”, embodied at the individual, organisational, and sector levels. Questions relevant to the exercise of power arise: Is competence in managing a dual embeddedness signals the development of a dual identity in professionalisation? Is professionalisation in this sense a sign of organisations maturing into more capable partners to the arguably more experienced (Western) institutions, shifting the power balance? Or is becoming more professional a sign of domestication to the agenda of certain powerful stakeholders, who define the boundaries of the profession? Which dominant dynamics can be observed in a broadly-defined transition country civil society, where individual participation in the form of activism may be overtaking the traditional forms of organised development work, especially with the spread of social media?

At the dawn of Italo-Chinese modern relations: Ludovico Nocentini's experience

In 1904 Ludovico Nocentini described China as a hub of colonial and commercial development for European powers. Europe in the Far East and the Italian Interests in China was Nocentini’s last and most critical book, in which he compared the performance of the Italian government with that of other countries and showed Rome’s inefficiency overseas. The book expatiated on the “carving up” of China into spheres of influence by the Western powers, while examining how the Italian government’s scant regard for the definition and pursuit of the country’s national interest jeopardized not only the development of its colonial policy, but also its foreign trade and industrial progress.

Disentangling trade-offs and synergies around ecosystem services with the influence network framework: illustration from a consultative process over the French Alps

An important aspect of sustainability is to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem functioning while improving human well-being. For this, the ecosystem service (ES) approach has the potential to bridge the still existing gap between ecological management and social development, especially by focusing on trade-offs and synergies between ES and between their beneficiaries. Several frameworks have been proposed to account for trade-offs and synergies between ES, and between ES and other components of social-ecological systems. However, to date, insufficient explicit attention has been paid to the three facets encompassed in the ES concept, namely potential supply, demand, and use, leading to incomplete descriptions of ES interactions. We expand on previous frameworks by proposing a new influence network framework (INF) based on an explicit consideration of influence relationships between these three ES facets, biodiversity, and external driving variables. We tested its ability to provide a comprehensive view of complex social-ecological interactions around ES through a consultative process focused on environmental management in the French Alps. We synthetized the interactions mentioned during this consultative process and grouped variables according to their overall propensity to influence or be influenced by the system. The resulting directed sequence of influences distinguished between: (1) mostly influential variables (dynamic social variables and ecological state variables), (2) target variables (provisioning and cultural services), and (3) mostly impacted variables (regulating services and biodiversity parameters). We discussed possible reasons for the discrepancies between actual and perceived influences and proposed options to overcome them. We demonstrated that the INF holds the potential to deliver collective assessments of ES relations by: (1) including ecological as well as social aspects, (2) providing opportunities for colearning processes between stakeholder groups, and (3) supporting communication about complex social-ecological systems and consequences for environmental management.

Modeling the Network of Dutch and Flemish Print Production, 1550-1750

The production of artistic prints in the sixteenth- and seventeenth-century Netherlands was an inherently social process. Turning out prints at any reasonable scale depended on the fluid coordination between designers, platecutters, and publishers; roles that, by the sixteenth century, were considered distinguished enough to merit distinct credits engraved on the plates themselves: invenit, fecit/sculpsit, and excudit. While any one designer, plate cutter, and publisher could potentially exercise a great deal of influence over the production of a single print, their individual decisions (Whom to select as an engraver? What subjects to create for a print design? What market to sell to?) would have been variously constrained or encouraged by their position in this larger network (Who do they already know? And who, in turn, do their contacts know?) This dissertation addresses the impact of these constraints and affordances through the novel application of computational social network analysis to major databases of surviving prints from this period. This approach is used to evaluate several questions about trends in early modern print production practices that have not been satisfactorily addressed by traditional literature based on case studies alone: Did the social capital demanded by print production result in centralized, or distributed production of prints? When, and to what extent, did printmakers and publishers in the Low countries favor international versus domestic collaborators? And were printmakers under the same pressure as painters to specialize in particular artistic genres? This dissertation ultimately suggests how simple professional incentives endemic to the practice of printmaking may, at large scales, have resulted in quite complex patterns of collaboration and production. The framework of network analysis surfaces the role of certain printmakers who tend to be neglected in aesthetically-focused histories of art. This approach also highlights important issues concerning art historians’ balancing of individual influence versus the impact of longue durée trends. Finally, this dissertation also raises questions about the current limitations and future possibilities of combining computational methods with cultural heritage datasets in the pursuit of historical research.

CREATING ORGANIZATIONAL CITIZENS: A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL AND QUALITATIVE EXAMINATION OF SUPERVSIOR- AND PEER-BASED INTERVENTIONS

Research suggests that supervisors and peers can help employees make sense of what is important or expected from them at work and, thereby, shape their behaviors. In this dissertation, I examine how employees’ organizational citizenship behaviors (OCB), such as helping and voice, are differentially affected by these two sources of influence over time. In particular, I compare the relative and joint effectiveness of two field interventions to enhance OCB: (a) a role clarification intervention in which supervisors are trained to set expectations for OCB for their employees and encourage them to engage in OCB and (b) a norm establishment intervention in which peers are trained to set expectations for each other and encourage each other to perform OCB. I utilize a mixed methods approach involving a quasi-field experiment to test for changes in OCB and qualitative data to explore the theoretical mechanisms over the course of three months in a large food processing plant. I find that role clarification interventions alone have immediate positive effects on OCB, whereas norm establishment interventions alone take a longer period of time to increase OCB. In addition, in the condition where both interventions were combined, norm establishment interventions weaken the effects of role clarification earlier on; however, at later stages in time, this pattern reverses as norm establishment enhances the effects of role clarification on OCB. Through these findings, I highlight how (a) organizations seeking quick increases in citizenship might be better off focusing on supervisors as sources of influence; (b) organizations need to persist with peer-focused interventions to see positive gains; and (c) despite initial hurdles with peer-focused interventions, over time, they can lead to the highest increases in OCB when combined with supervisor-focused interventions.

Computational Analysis of Intelligent Agents: Social and Strategic Settings

The central motif of this work is prediction and optimization in presence of multiple interacting intelligent agents. We use the phrase `intelligent agents' to imply in some sense, a `bounded rationality', the exact meaning of which varies depending on the setting. Our agents may not be `rational' in the classical game theoretic sense, in that they don't always optimize a global objective. Rather, they rely on heuristics, as is natural for human agents or even software agents operating in the real-world. Within this broad framework we study the problem of influence maximization in social networks where behavior of agents is myopic, but complication stems from the structure of interaction networks. In this setting, we generalize two well-known models and give new algorithms and hardness results for our models. Then we move on to models where the agents reason strategically but are faced with considerable uncertainty. For such games, we give a new solution concept and analyze a real-world game using out techniques. Finally, the richest model we consider is that of Network Cournot Competition which deals with strategic resource allocation in hypergraphs, where agents reason strategically and their interaction is specified indirectly via player's utility functions. For this model, we give the first equilibrium computability results. In all of the above problems, we assume that payoffs for the agents are known. However, for real-world games, getting the payoffs can be quite challenging. To this end, we also study the inverse problem of inferring payoffs, given game history. We propose and evaluate a data analytic framework and we show that it is fast and performant.

The Legal Character of Sino-African Tied Aid: Cunning Fox or Wise Dragon?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the African IEL Network Conference, 5th-6th of May 2011, The Mandela Institute, Johannesburg (South Africa) Sino-African trade has seen a fifty-fold increase in the years 1999 to 2008. China became the second most important trading partner for the African economy and already overtook the US as the most important trading partner in some African regions. However, all of this trade is taking place independent from legal regulation by a preferential or other trade agreement. Interestingly, Sino-African trade has seen particular increase in countries that have agreed to tied aid arrangements with China. Taking a closer look at these tied aid arrangements (the so-called Angola-Model) reveals, that some aspects might indeed have a positive effect on Sino-African trade in general. Several grey areas might potentially conflict with WTO-law. However, tied aid is excluded from the GATS, the GATT, and the GPA – in other words, it is outside the sphere of WTO-law. The paper analyses three critical aspects of the Angola-Model version of tied aid with reference to WTO-law, and elaborates the importance of regulating trade-distorting aspects of modern tied aid.