Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Intentions of UK farmers toward biofuel crop production: Implications for policy targets and land use change

The United States and the European Union have set targets for biofuel production to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce fossil carbon emissions. Attainment of biofuel targets d6pends upon policy and infrastructure development but also on production of suitable raw materials. Production of relevant crops relies on the decisions that farmers make in their economic and political environment. We need to identify any farmer-related barriers to biofuel production and to determine whether novel policy and technology are required to meet targets. These aspects of the emerging biofuel industry are relevant across international barriers and have notyet been addressed quantitatively. We describe a case study from the UK of farmers' intentions toward producing two biofuel crops for which refining capacity either exists or is under construction. Given farmers' intentions, current land use, and conversion efficiency, we estimate potential biofuel production. These estimates indicate that EU targets are not achievable using domestically grown raw materials without policy intervention, use of alternative feedstocks, and either significant improvements in processing efficiency or largescale changes in land use.

Prooxidant and antioxidant properties of human serum ultrafiltrates toward LDL: important role of uric acid

Oxidized LDL is present within atherosclerotic lesions, demonstrating a failure of antioxidant protection. A normal human serum ultrafiltrate of M-r below 500 was prepared as a model for the low M-r components of interstitial fluid, and its effects on LDL oxidation were investigated. The ultrafiltrate (0.3%, v/v) was a potent antioxidant for native LDL, but was a strong prooxidant for mildly oxidized LDL when copper, but not a water-soluble azo initiator, was used to oxidize LDL. Adding a lipid hydroperoxide to native LDL induced the antioxidant to prooxidant switch of the ultrafiltrate. Uric acid was identified, using uricase and add-back experiments, as both the major antioxidant and prooxidant within the ultrafiltrate for LDL. The ultrafiltrate or uric acid rapidly reduced Cu2+ to Cu+. The reduction of Cu2+ to Cu+ may help to explain both the antioxidant and prooxidant effects observed. The decreased concentration of Cu2+ would inhibit tocopherol-mediated peroxidation in native LDL, and the generation of Cu+ would promote the rapid breakdown of lipid hydroperoxides in mildly oxidized LDL into lipid radicals. The net effect of the low M-r serum components would therefore depend on the preexisting levels of lipid hydroperoxides in LDL.jlr These findings may help to explain why LDL oxidation occurs in atherosclerotic lesions in the presence of compounds that are usually considered to be antioxidants.

Alkene-arene meta photocycloadditions with a four-carbon-atom tether: efficient approach toward the polycyclic ring systems of aphidicolin and stemodinone

At the end of its tether! The fusion of a six-membered ring onto the four-carbon-atom tether of substrate 1 provides an efficient approach toward the polycyclic ring systems of the natural products aphidicolin and stemodinone. The reaction represents a unique example of a preference for product formation from an endo exciplex in an intramolecular system (exo:endo 2:3=1.0:1.2).

Attitudes of rural branch managers in Madhya Pradesh, India, toward their role as providers of financial services to the poor

Discussions on banking reforms to reduce financial exclusion have referred little to possible attitudinal constraints, on the part of staff at both branch and institutional levels, inhibiting the provision of financial services to the poor. The research project, funded by the ESCOR (now Social Science Research) Small Grants Committee, has focused on this aspect of financial exclusion. The research commenced in May 2001 and was completed in April 2002. Profiles of the rural bank branch managers, including personal background, professional background and workplace, are presented. Attitudes of managers toward aspects of their work environment and the rural poor are examined, using results from both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Finally, the emerging policy implications are discussed. These include bank reforms to address human resource management, the work environment, intermediate bank management and organization, and the client interface.

Toward construction of an inexpensive brain computer interface for goal oriented applications

The paper describes the implementation of an offline, low-cost Brain Computer Interface (BCI) alternative to more expensive commercial models. Using inexpensive general purpose clinical EEG acquisition hardware (Truscan32, Deymed Diagnostic) as the base unit, a synchronisation module was constructed to allow the EEG hardware to be operated precisely in time to allow for recording of automatically time stamped EEG signals. The synchronising module allows the EEG recordings to be aligned in stimulus time locked fashion for further processing by the classifier to establish the class of the stimulus, sample by sample. This allows for the acquisition of signals from the subject’s brain for the goal oriented BCI application based on the oddball paradigm. An appropriate graphical user interface (GUI) was constructed and implemented as the method to elicit the required responses (in this case Event Related Potentials or ERPs) from the subject.