882 resultados para Simulation and prediction


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A microcap SPICE circuit-level model of a 12-pulse autotransformer based rectifier for an aircraft fuel-pump motor drive is described. The importance of including the nonlinear magnetising inductance of the interphase transformers is illustrated. Small supply voltage distortions are seen to result in current imbalance in the interphase transformers, degrading the rectifier input current, and may lead to infringement of the power quality specification. The model has been validated for various operating supply voltages, frequencies and output powers, against measurements from a 3.75 kW unit.

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eLearning at universities is taking an increasingly larger part of academic teaching methodologies. In part this is caused by different pedagogical concepts behind interactive learning system, in part it is because of larger numbers of students that can be reached within one given course and, most important, actively integrated into the teaching process. We present here the development of a novel concept of teaching, allowing students to explore theoretical and experimental aspects of act of magnetic field on moving charge through real experiments and simulation. This problem is not only part of the basic education of physics students, but also element of the academic education of almost all engineers.

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This paper focuses on the development of methods and cascade of models for flood monitoring and forecasting and its implementation in Grid environment. The processing of satellite data for flood extent mapping is done using neural networks. For flood forecasting we use cascade of models: regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, hydrological model and hydraulic model. Implementation of developed methods and models in the Grid infrastructure and related projects are discussed.

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A fine control of the microstructured polymer fiber Bragg grating spectrum properties, such as maximum reflected power and 3-dB bandwidth, through acousto-optic modulation is presented. For simulation purposes, the device is modelled as a single structure, comprising a silica horn and a fiber Bragg grating. For similar sized structures a good correlation between the numerical results and the experimental data is obtained, allowing the strain field to be completely characterized along the whole structure. It is also shown that the microstructured polymer fiber Bragg grating requires less effort from the piezoelectric actuator to produce modification in the grating spectrum when compared with a silica fiber Bragg grating. This technique has potential to be applied on tunable optical filters and tunable cavities for photonic applications.

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A computer code system for simulation and estimation of branching processes is proposed. Using the system, samples for some models with or without migration are generated. Over these samples we compare some properties of various estimators.

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This study is focused on the comparison and modification of different estimates arising in the branching processes. Simulations of models with or without migration are put through. Due to the complexity of the computations the algorithms are designed with the language of technical computing MATLAB. Using the simulations, estimates of the o spring mean of the generated processes are calculated. It is well known in the literature that under certain conditions the asymptotic distribution of the estimates is proved to be normal. Using the asymptotic normality a modified method of maximum likelihood is proposed. The aim is to obtain trimmed maximum likelihood estimates based on several sample paths with the same number of generations. Thus in a natural way the observations, inconsistent with the aprior information about the asymptotic normality are excluded from the model. The computation of the standard error allows the comparison of different types of estimates.

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Electrically excited synchronous machines with brushes and slip rings are popular but hardly used in inflammable and explosive environments. This paper proposes a new brushless electrically excited synchronous motor with a hybrid rotor. It eliminates the use of brushes and slip rings so as to improve the reliability and cost-effectiveness of the traction drive. The proposed motor is characterized with two sets of stator windings with two different pole numbers to provide excitation and drive torque independently. This paper introduces the structure and operating principle of the machine, followed by the analysis of the air-gap magnetic field using the finite-element method. The influence of the excitation winding's pole number on the coupling capability is studied and the operating characteristics of the machine are simulated. These are further examined by the experimental tests on a 16 kW prototype motor. The machine is proved to have good static and dynamic performance, which meets the stringent requirements for traction applications.

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As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver’s age, and driver’s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

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Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

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Developing analytical models that can accurately describe behaviors of Internet-scale networks is difficult. This is due, in part, to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and rapidly changing properties of today's networks. The lack of analytical models makes large-scale network simulation an indispensable tool for studying immense networks. However, large-scale network simulation has not been commonly used to study networks of Internet-scale. This can be attributed to three factors: 1) current large-scale network simulators are geared towards simulation research and not network research, 2) the memory required to execute an Internet-scale model is exorbitant, and 3) large-scale network models are difficult to validate. This dissertation tackles each of these problems. ^ First, this work presents a method for automatically enabling real-time interaction, monitoring, and control of large-scale network models. Network researchers need tools that allow them to focus on creating realistic models and conducting experiments. However, this should not increase the complexity of developing a large-scale network simulator. This work presents a systematic approach to separating the concerns of running large-scale network models on parallel computers and the user facing concerns of configuring and interacting with large-scale network models. ^ Second, this work deals with reducing memory consumption of network models. As network models become larger, so does the amount of memory needed to simulate them. This work presents a comprehensive approach to exploiting structural duplications in network models to dramatically reduce the memory required to execute large-scale network experiments. ^ Lastly, this work addresses the issue of validating large-scale simulations by integrating real protocols and applications into the simulation. With an emulation extension, a network simulator operating in real-time can run together with real-world distributed applications and services. As such, real-time network simulation not only alleviates the burden of developing separate models for applications in simulation, but as real systems are included in the network model, it also increases the confidence level of network simulation. This work presents a scalable and flexible framework to integrate real-world applications with real-time simulation.^

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Every space launch increases the overall amount of space debris. Satellites have limited awareness of nearby objects that might pose a collision hazard. Astrometric, radiometric, and thermal models for the study of space debris in low-Earth orbit have been developed. This modeled approach proposes analysis methods that provide increased Local Area Awareness for satellites in low-Earth and geostationary orbit. Local Area Awareness is defined as the ability to detect, characterize, and extract useful information regarding resident space objects as they move through the space environment surrounding a spacecraft. The study of space debris is of critical importance to all space-faring nations. Characterization efforts are proposed using long-wave infrared sensors for space-based observations of debris objects in low-Earth orbit. Long-wave infrared sensors are commercially available and do not require solar illumination to be observed, as their received signal is temperature dependent. The characterization of debris objects through means of passive imaging techniques allows for further studies into the origination, specifications, and future trajectory of debris objects. Conclusions are made regarding the aforementioned thermal analysis as a function of debris orbit, geometry, orientation with respect to time, and material properties. Development of a thermal model permits the characterization of debris objects based upon their received long-wave infrared signals. Information regarding the material type, size, and tumble-rate of the observed debris objects are extracted. This investigation proposes the utilization of long-wave infrared radiometric models of typical debris to develop techniques for the detection and characterization of debris objects via signal analysis of unresolved imagery. Knowledge regarding the orbital type and semi-major axis of the observed debris object are extracted via astrometric analysis. This knowledge may aid in the constraint of the admissible region for the initial orbit determination process. The resultant orbital information is then fused with the radiometric characterization analysis enabling further characterization efforts of the observed debris object. This fused analysis, yielding orbital, material, and thermal properties, significantly increases a satellite's Local Area Awareness via an intimate understanding of the debris environment surrounding the spacecraft.

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As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver¡¯s age, and driver¡¯s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

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Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.

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With the growing commercial importance of the Internet and the development of new real-time, connection-oriented services like IP-telephony and electronic commerce resilience is becoming a key issue in the design of TP-based networks. Two emerging technologies, which can accomplish the task of efficient information transfer, are Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) and Differentiated Services. A main benefit of MPLS is the ability to introduce traffic-engineering concepts due to its connection-oriented characteristic. With MPLS it is possible to assign different paths for packets through the network. Differentiated services divides traffic into different classes and treat them differently, especially when there is a shortage of network resources. In this thesis, a framework was proposed to integrate the above two technologies and its performance in providing load balancing and improving QoS was evaluated. Simulation and analysis of this framework demonstrated that the combination of MPLS and Differentiated services is a powerful tool for QoS provisioning in IP networks.

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In this thesis, research for tsunami remote sensing using the Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) delay-Doppler maps (DDMs) is presented. Firstly, a process for simulating GNSS-R DDMs of a tsunami-dominated sea sur- face is described. In this method, the bistatic scattering Zavorotny-Voronovich (Z-V) model, the sea surface mean square slope model of Cox and Munk, and the tsunami- induced wind perturbation model are employed. The feasibility of the Cox and Munk model under a tsunami scenario is examined by comparing the Cox and Munk model- based scattering coefficient with the Jason-1 measurement. A good consistency be- tween these two results is obtained with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. After con- firming the applicability of the Cox and Munk model for a tsunami-dominated sea, this work provides the simulations of the scattering coefficient distribution and the corresponding DDMs of a fixed region of interest before and during the tsunami. Fur- thermore, by subtracting the simulation results that are free of tsunami from those with presence of tsunami, the tsunami-induced variations in scattering coefficients and DDMs can be clearly observed. Secondly, a scheme to detect tsunamis and estimate tsunami parameters from such tsunami-dominant sea surface DDMs is developed. As a first step, a procedure to de- termine tsunami-induced sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) from DDMs is demon- strated and a tsunami detection precept is proposed. Subsequently, the tsunami parameters (wave amplitude, direction and speed of propagation, wavelength, and the tsunami source location) are estimated based upon the detected tsunami-induced SSHAs. In application, the sea surface scattering coefficients are unambiguously re- trieved by employing the spatial integration approach (SIA) and the dual-antenna technique. Next, the effective wind speed distribution can be restored from the scat- tering coefficients. Assuming all DDMs are of a tsunami-dominated sea surface, the tsunami-induced SSHAs can be derived with the knowledge of background wind speed distribution. In addition, the SSHA distribution resulting from the tsunami-free DDM (which is supposed to be zero) is considered as an error map introduced during the overall retrieving stage and is utilized to mitigate such errors from influencing sub- sequent SSHA results. In particular, a tsunami detection procedure is conducted to judge the SSHAs to be truly tsunami-induced or not through a fitting process, which makes it possible to decrease the false alarm. After this step, tsunami parameter estimation is proceeded based upon the fitted results in the former tsunami detec- tion procedure. Moreover, an additional method is proposed for estimating tsunami propagation velocity and is believed to be more desirable in real-world scenarios. The above-mentioned tsunami-dominated sea surface DDM simulation, tsunami detection precept and parameter estimation have been tested with simulated data based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event.