Hierarchical analysis of production efficiency in a coastal trawl fishery

We present, pedagogically, the Bayesian approach to composed error models under alternative, hierarchical characterizations; demonstrate, briefly, the Bayesian approach to model comparison using recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods; and illustrate, empirically, the value of these techniques to natural resource economics and coastal fisheries management, in particular. The Bayesian approach to fisheries efficiency analysis is interesting for at least three reasons. First, it is a robust and highly flexible alternative to commonly applied, frequentist procedures, which dominate the literature. Second,the Bayesian approach is extremely simple to implement, requiring only a modest addition to most natural-resource economist tool-kits. Third, despite its attractions, applications of Bayesian methodology in coastal fisheries management are few.

Displacement of methane by coadsorbed carbon dioxide is facilitated in narrow carbon nanopores

By using simulation methods, we studied the adsorption of binary CO2-CH4 mixtures on various CH4 preadsorbed carbonaceous materials (e.g., triply periodic carbon minimal surfaces, slit-shaped carbon micropores, and Harris's virtual porous carbons) at 293 K. Regardless of the different micropore geometry, two-stage mechanism of CH4 displacement from carbon nanospaces by coadsorbed CO2 has been proposed. In the first stage, the coadsorbed CO2 molecules induced the enhancement of CH4 adsorbed amount. In the second stage, the stronger affinity of CO2 to flat/curved graphitic surfaces as well as CO2-CO2 interactions cause the displacement of CH4 molecules from carbonaceous materials. The operating conditions of CO2-induced cleaning of the adsorbed phase from CH4 mixture component strongly depend on the size of the carbon micropores, but, in general, the enhanced adsorption field in narrow carbon ultramicropores facilitates the nonreactive displacement of CH4 by coadsorbed CO2. This is because in narrow carbon ultramicropores the equilibrium CO2/CH4 selectivity (i.e., preferential adsorption toward CO2) increased significantly. The adsorption field in wider micropores (i.e., the overall surface energy) for both CO2 and CH4 is very similar, which decreases the preferential CO2 adsorption. This suppresses the displacement of CH4 by coadsorbed CO2 and assists further adsorption of CH4 from the bulk mixture (i.e., CO2/CH4 mixing in adsorbed phase).

An analytical method for capacity dimensioning of WCDMA with high speed wireless link

Capacity dimensioning is one of the key problems in wireless network planning. Analytical and simulation methods are usually used to pursue the accurate capacity dimensioning of wireless network. In this paper, an analytical capacity dimensioning method for WCDMA with high speed wireless link is proposed based on the analysis on relations among system performance and high speed wireless transmission technologies, such as H-ARQ, AMC and fast scheduling. It evaluates system capacity in closed-form expressions from link level and system level. Numerical results show that the proposed method can calculate link level and system level capacity for WCDMA system with HSDPA and HSUPA.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

A critical value function approach, with an application to persistent time-series

Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an approximately similar test. This test rejects the null hypothesis when the test statistic islarger than a critical value function (CVF) of the data. We illustrate this procedure when regressors are highly persistent, a case in which commonly-used simulation methods encounter dificulties controlling size uniformly. Our approach works satisfactorily, controls size, and yields a test which outperforms the two other known similar tests.

Customized fiber glass posts. Fatigue and fracture resistance

Purpose: To evaluate the root fracture strength of human single-rooted premolars restored with customized fiberglass post-core systems after fatigue simulation. Methods: 40 human premolars had their crowns cut and the root length was standardized to 13 mm. The teeth were endodontically treated and embedded in acrylic resin. The specimens were distributed into four groups (n=10) according to the restorative material used: prefabricated fiber post (PFP), PFP+accessory fiber posts (PFPa), PFP+unidirectional fiberglass (PFPf), and unidirectional fiberglass customized post (CP). All posts were luted using resin cement and the cores were built up with a resin composite. The samples were stored for 24 hours at 37 degrees C and 100% relative humidity and then submitted to mechanical cycling. The specimens were then compressive-loaded in a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/minute until fracture. The failure patterns were analyzed and classified. Data was submitted to one-way ANOVA and Tukey's test (alpha= 0.05). Results: The mean values of maximum load (N) were: PFP - 811.4 +/- 124.3; PFPa - 729.2 +/- 157.2; PFPf - 747.5 +/- 204.7; CP - 762.4 +/- 110. Statistical differences were not observed among the groups. All groups showed favorable restorable failures. Fiberglass customized post did not show improved fracture resistance or differences in failure patterns when compared to prefabricated glass fiber posts. (Am J Dent 2012;25:35-38).

Coordinate and time-dependent diffusion dynamics in protein folding

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Efeito de estresse ambiental sobre a pressão arterial de trabalhadores

OBJETIVO: Analisar o comportamento de pressão arterial (PA) e a freqüência cardíaca (Fc) de indivíduos ao longo da jornada de trabalho em dois ambientes com estresses ambientais distintos. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 46 funcionários, trabalhadores de uma indústria processadora de madeira, de Botucatu, SP, sendo 27 funcionários da linha de produção (esforço físico moderado-intenso, altas temperaturas e elevados níveis de ruído) (G1), e 19 da administração (sem esforço físico, salas aclimatadas, baixos níveis de ruído) (G2). Todos foram submetidos a avaliação antropométrica da composição corporal (obesidade e adiposidade) e bioquímica do sangue (lipidemia) e, adicionalmente, o registro da PA e da Fc em três momentos do turno de serviço: início, meio e fim. RESULTADOS: Houve semelhança na variação da PA entre G1 e G2, mas com maiores elevações de PA e Fc em G1. Os resultados mostraram grande variabilidade na resposta da PA, levando à subdivisão dos grupos G1 e G2 em respondedores (GR, aumento maior de 10% na PA média) e não respondedores (GN). Os subgrupos GR e GN apresentaram semelhanças nos padrões antropométrico e bioquímico diferindo apenas na resposta pressórica e no caso do GR1 na história familiar de hipertensão. Comparando os subgrupos GR1 e GR2, foi constatado que os primeiros apresentaram maiores variações de PA e Fc que os segundos. CONCLUSÕES: A variação individual da resposta pressórica e da Fc conforme o tipo de estresse ambiental indica ser este um fator adicional a ser considerado na avaliação da pressão arterial e, talvez, na gênese da hipertensão arterial de operários.

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

Optimization of the mechanical properties of low-carbon steels by formation of a multiphase microstructure

In this work five methods of heat treatments are investigated in order to obtained convenient volume fractions of ferrite, bainite, martensite and retained austenite, starting with a low carbon steel and seeking the distinction of the phases, through optical microscopy. Specific chemical etching is improved. The results in tensile and fatigue tests were accomplished and the results were related with the microstructural parameters. The results show that the mechanical properties are closely related with the phases, grains size and the phases morphology. Copyright © 2001 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at √s = 7TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 pb-1 of data collected in pp collisions at s = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV/c is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeVc is higher than 90% over the full η range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100GeV/c and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV/c. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd and Sissa Medialab srl.

Modelos estocásticos com heterocedasticidade: Uma abordagem Bayesiana para os retornos do Ibovespa

Current research compares the Bayesian estimates obtained for the parameters of processes of ARCH family with normal and Student's t distributions for the conditional distribution of the return series. A non-informative prior distribution was adopted and a reparameterization of models under analysis was taken into account to map parameters' space into real space. The procedure adopts a normal prior distribution for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained by Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulation methods. The methodology was evaluated by a series of Bovespa Index returns and the predictive ordinate criterion was employed to select the best adjustment model to the data. Results show that, as a rule, the proposed Bayesian approach provides satisfactory estimates and that the GARCH process with Student's t distribution adjusted better to the data.

Influence of filler charge on gloss of composite materials before and after in vitro toothbrushing

Objectives: This study evaluated the gloss behaviour of experimental resin composites loaded with different filler percentages, immediately after polishing and after toothbrushing simulation. Methods: Sixteen disc-shaped specimens were fabricated for each different-charged composite (40%, 50%, 60%, 70% and 75%) and polished with SiC abrasive papers. Gloss measurements were made prior to simulated toothbrushing. The specimens were subjected to the simulation for 5, 15, 30 and 60 min using an electrical toothbrush with a standardized pressure while being immersed in a toothpaste/artificial saliva slurry. Results: Baseline composite gloss values ranged from 69.7 (40%) to 81.3 (75%) GU (gloss units) and from 18.1 (40%) to 32.3 (75%) GU after 1 h of brushing. Highest gloss values were obtained by 75%-charged resin, while the lowest values were obtained by the 40%-charged one. Conclusions: All tested materials showed a gloss decrease. However, the higher filler load a composite resin has, the higher gloss it can achieve. Clinical significance: Gloss of resin composite materials is an important factor in determining aesthetic success of anterior restorations, and this property may vary according to the filler charge of the restorative material. Higher filler load of a composite resin results in higher gloss values. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.