975 resultados para Sequential Gaussian simulation
Resumo:
On the road, near collision events (also close calls or near-miss incidents) largely outnumber actual crashes, yet most of them can never be recorded by current traffic data collection technologies or crashes analysis tools. The analysis of near collisions data is an important step in the process of reducing the crash rate. There have been several studies that have investigated near collisions; to our knowledge, this is the first study that uses the functionalities provided by cooperative vehicles to collect near misses information. We use the VISSIM traffic simulator and a custom C++ engine to simulate cooperative vehicles and their ability to detect near collision events. Our results showed that, within a simple simulated environment, adequate information on near collision events can be collected using the functionalities of cooperative perception systems. The relationship between the ratio of detected events and the ratio of equipped vehicle was shown to closely follow a squared law, and the largest source of nondetection was packet loss instead of packet delays and GPS imprecision.
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Electricity has been the major source of power in most railway systems. Reliable, efficient and safe power distribution to the trains is vitally important to the overall quality of railway service. Like any large-scale engineering system, design, operation and planning of traction power systems rely heavily on computer simulation. This paper reviews the major features on modelling and the general practices for traction power system simulation; and introduces the development of the latest simulation approach with discussions on simulation results and practical applications. Remarks will also be given on the future challenges on traction power system simulation.
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Evaluating the safety of different traffic facilities is a complex and crucial task. Microscopic simulation models have been widely used for traffic management but have been largely neglected in traffic safety studies. Micro simulation to study safety is more ethical and accessible than the traditional safety studies, which only assess historical crash data. However, current microscopic models are unable to mimic unsafe driver behavior, as they are based on presumptions of safe driver behavior. This highlights the need for a critical examination of the current microscopic models to determine which components and parameters have an effect on safety indicator reproduction. The question then arises whether these safety indicators are valid indicators of traffic safety. The safety indicators were therefore selected and tested for straight motorway segments in Brisbane, Australia. This test examined the capability of a micro-simulation model and presents a better understanding of micro-simulation models and how such models, in particular car following models can be enriched to present more accurate safety indicators.
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Object segmentation is one of the fundamental steps for a number of robotic applications such as manipulation, object detection, and obstacle avoidance. This paper proposes a visual method for incorporating colour and depth information from sequential multiview stereo images to segment objects of interest from complex and cluttered environments. Rather than segmenting objects using information from a single frame in the sequence, we incorporate information from neighbouring views to increase the reliability of the information and improve the overall segmentation result. Specifically, dense depth information of a scene is computed using multiple view stereo. Depths from neighbouring views are reprojected into the reference frame to be segmented compensating for imperfect depth computations for individual frames. The multiple depth layers are then combined with color information from the reference frame to create a Markov random field to model the segmentation problem. Finally, graphcut optimisation is employed to infer pixels belonging to the object to be segmented. The segmentation accuracy is evaluated over images from an outdoor video sequence demonstrating the viability for automatic object segmentation for mobile robots using monocular cameras as a primary sensor.
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In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios
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This paper presents an approach to building an observation likelihood function from a set of sparse, noisy training observations taken from known locations by a sensor with no obvious geometric model. The basic approach is to fit an interpolant to the training data, representing the expected observation, and to assume additive sensor noise. This paper takes a Bayesian view of the problem, maintaining a posterior over interpolants rather than simply the maximum-likelihood interpolant, giving a measure of uncertainty in the map at any point. This is done using a Gaussian process framework. To validate the approach experimentally, a model of an environment is built using observations from an omni-directional camera. After a model has been built from the training data, a particle filter is used to localise while traversing this environment
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Nursing training for an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is a resource intensive process. High demands are made on staff, students and physical resources. Interactive, 3D computer simulations, known as virtual worlds, are increasingly being used to supplement training regimes in the health sciences; especially in areas such as complex hospital ward processes. Such worlds have been found to be very useful in maximising the utilisation of training resources. Our aim is to design and develop a novel virtual world application for teaching and training Intensive Care nurses in the approach and method for shift handover, to provide an independent, but rigorous approach to teaching these important skills. In this paper we present a virtual world simulator for students to practice key steps in handing over the 24/7 care requirements of intensive care patients during the commencing first hour of a shift. We describe the modelling process to provide a convincing interactive simulation of the handover steps involved. The virtual world provides a practice tool for students to test their analytical skills with scenarios previously provided by simple physical simulations, and live on the job training. Additional educational benefits include facilitation of remote learning, high flexibility in study hours and the automatic recording of a reviewable log from the session. To the best of our knowledge, we believe this is a novel and original application of virtual worlds to an ICU handover process. The major outcome of the work was a virtual world environment for training nurses in the shift handover process, designed and developed for use by postgraduate nurses in training.
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In recent years, the advent of new tools for musculoskeletal simulation has increased the potential for significantly improving the ergonomic design process and ergonomic assessment of design. In this paper we investigate the use of one such tool, ‘The AnyBody Modeling System’, applied to solve a one-parameter and yet, complex ergonomic design problem. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential of computer-aided musculoskeletal modelling in the ergonomic design process, in the same way as CAE technology has been applied to engineering design.
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When compared with other arthoplasties, Total Ankle Joint Replacement (TAR) is much less successful. Attempts to remedy this situation by modifying the implant design, for example by making its form more akin to the original ankle anatomy, have largely met with failure. One of the major obstacles is a gap in current knowledge relating to ankle joint force. Specifically this is the lack of reliable data quantifying forces and moments acting on the ankle, in both the healthy and diseased joints. The limited data that does exist is thought to be inaccurate [1] and is based upon simplistic two dimensional discrete and outdated techniques.
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In most materials, short stress waves are generated during the process of plastic deformation, phase transformation, crack formation and crack growth. These phenomena are applied in acoustic emission (AE) for the detection of material defects in wide spectrum areas, ranging from non-destructive testing for the detection of materials defects to monitoring of microeismical activity. AE technique is also used for defect source identification and for failure detection. AE waves consist of P waves (primary/longitudinal waves), S waves (shear/transverse waves) and Rayleight (surface) waves as well as reflected and diffracted waves. The propagation of AE waves in various modes has made the determination of source location difficult. In order to use the acoustic emission technique for accurate identification of source location, an understanding of wave propagation of the AE signals at various locations in a plate structure is essential. Furthermore, an understanding of wave propagation can also assist in sensor location for optimum detection of AE signals. In real life, as the AE signals radiate from the source it will result in stress waves. Unless the type of stress wave is known, it is very difficult to locate the source when using the classical propagation velocity equations. This paper describes the simulation of AE waves to identify the source location in steel plate as well as the wave modes. The finite element analysis (FEA) is used for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in thin plate. By knowing the type of wave generated, it is possible to apply the appropriate wave equations to determine the location of the source. For a single plate structure, the results show that the simulation algorithm is effective to simulate different stress waves.
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The subtalar joint has been presumed to account for most of the pathologic motion in the foot and ankle, but research has shown that motion at other foot joints is greater than traditionally expected. Although recent research demonstrates the complexity of the kinematic variables in the foot and ankle, it still fails to expand our knowledge of the role of the musculotendinous structures in the biomechanics of the foot and ankle and how this is affected by in-shoe orthoses. The aim of this study was to simulate the effect of in-shoe foot orthoses by manipulation of the ground reaction force (GRF) components and centre of pressure (CoP) to demonstrate the resultant effect on muscle force in selected muscles during both the rearfoot loading response and stance phase of the gait cycle. We found that any medial wedge increases ankle joint load during gait cycle, while a lateral wedge decreases the joint load during the stance phase.
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The impact of weather on traffic and its behavior is not well studied in literature primarily due to lack of integrated traffic and weather data. Weather can significant effect the traffic and traffic management measures developed for fine weather might not be optimal for adverse weather. Simulation is an efficient tool for analyzing traffic management measures even before their actual implementation. Therefore, in order to develop and test traffic management measures for adverse weather condition we need to first analyze the effect of weather on fundamental traffic parameters and thereafter, calibrate the simulation model parameters in order to simulate the traffic under adverse weather conditions. In this paper we first, analyses the impact of weather on motorway traffic flow and drivers’ behaviour with traffic data from Swiss motorways and weather data from MeteoSuisse. Thereafter, we develop methodology to calibrate a microscopic simulation model with the aim to utilize the simulation model for simulating traffic under adverse weather conditions. Here, study is performed using AIMSUN, a microscopic traffic simulator.
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Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.
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China has experienced an extraordinary level of economic development since the 1990s, following excessive competition between different regions. This has resulted in many resource and environmental problems. Land resources, for example, are either abused or wasted in many regions. The strategy of development priority zoning (DPZ), proposed by the Chinese National 11th Five-Year Plan, provides an opportunity to solve these problems by coordinating regional development and protection. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the DPZ strategy should be integrated with regional land use policy. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model for assessing land use change in China led by the DPZ strategy. Land use is characterized by the prioritization of land development, land utilization, land harness and land protection (D-U-H-P). By using the Delphi method, a corresponding suitable prioritization of D-U-H-P for the four types of DPZ, including optimized development zones (ODZ), key development zones (KDZ), restricted development zones (RDZ), and forbidden development zones (FDZ) are identified. Suichang County is used as a case study in which to conduct the simulation of land use change under the RDZ strategy. The findings enable a conceptualization to be made of DPZ-led land use change and the identification of further implications for land use planning generally. The SD model also provides a potential tool for local government to combine DPZ strategy at the national level with land use planning at the local level.