Seasonal migration and micro-credit in the lean period : evidence from northwest Bangladesh

This paper investigates the relationship between access to micro-credit and temporary seasonal migration, an issue which is largely ignored in the standard rural-urban migration literature. Seasonal migration due to agricultural downturns is a common phenomenon in developing countries. Using primary data from a cross-sectional household survey from the northwest part of Bangladesh, this study quantifies the factors that influence such migration decisions. Among other results, we find that network effects play a significant role in influencing the migration decision, with the presence of kinsmen at the place of destination having considerable impact. Seasonal migration is a natural choice for individual suffering periodic hardship; however the strict weekly loan repayment rules of Micro-credit Institutes can have an adverse effect on this process, reducing the ability of borrowers to react to a shock. Our result suggests that poor individuals prefer the option of not accessing the micro-credit and opt for temporal seasonal migration during the lean period. The results have numerous potential policy implications, including the design of typical micro-credit schemes.

Ecological gradients and landscape structure affecting seasonal woodpigeon Columba palumbus densities in a coastal region (South-East Spain)

The aim of the present study is to identify and evaluate the relationship between Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus, Linnaeus, 1758) density and different environmental gradients (thermotype, ombrotype, continentality and latitudinal), land use and landscape structure, using geographic information systems and multivariate modelling. Transects (n = 396) were developed to estimate the density of Woodpigeon in the Marina Baja (Alicante, Spain) from 2006 to 2008. The highestdensity for Woodpigeon was in September-October (1.28birds/10ha) and the lowest inFebruary-March (0.34birds/10ha). Moreover, there were more Woodpigeons in areas with a mesomediterranean thermotypethan in thermomediterranean or supramediterranean ones. There was greater densityinthe intermediate zones compared to thecoast and interior. The natural or cultural landscape had the highest Woodpigeon density (1.53birds/10ha), with both denseand clear pine forest values standing out. Therefore, it is very important to conserve these traditional landscapes with adequate management strategies in order to maintain, resident and transient Woodpigeon populations. These natural areas are open places where the Woodpigeons find food and detect the presence ofpredators. Thus, this study will enable more precise knowledge of the ecological factors (habitat variables) that intervene in the distribution of Woodpigeon populations and their density.

Geographic distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in surface sediments

Dinoflagellate cysts are useful for reconstructing upper water conditions. For adequate reconstructions detailed information is required about the relationship between modern day environmental conditions and the geographic distribution of cysts in sediments. This Atlas summarises the modern global distribution of 71 organicwalled dinoflagellate cyst species. The synthesis is based on the integration of literature sources together with data of 2405 globally distributed surface sediment samples that have been preparedwith a comparable methodology and taxonomy. The distribution patterns of individual cyst species are being comparedwith environmental factors that are knownto influence dinoflagellate growth, gamete production, encystment, excystment and preservation of their organic-walled cysts: surface water temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, chlorophyll-a concentrations and bottom water oxygen concentrations. Graphs are provided for every species depicting the relationship between seasonal and annual variations of these parameters and the relative abundance of the species. Results have been compared with previously published records; an overview of the ecological significance as well as information about the seasonal production of each individual species is presented. The relationship between the cyst distribution and variation in the aforementioned environmental parameters was analysed by performing a canonical correspondence analysis. All tested variables showed a positive relationship on the 99% confidence level. Sea-surface temperature represents the parameter corresponding to the largest amount of variance within the dataset (40%) followed by nitrate, salinity, phosphate and bottom-water oxygen concentration, which correspond to 34%, 33%, 25% and 24% of the variance, respectively. Characterisations of selected environments as well as a discussion about how these factors could have influenced the final cyst yield in sediments are included.

Distribution of calcareous nannofossils in the Miocene interval of DSDP Hole 94-608 in the north Atlantic (Fig. 1)

DSDP North Atlantic Site 608 yielded an excellent Miocene pelagic section which affords a further opportunity for elucidating the chronology of the calcareous nannofossil succession in the framework of magnetostratigraphic control. Most of the conventional (zonal) markers have been documented for this site and some of the earlier results are confirmed and refined. In addition several unconventional and less known markers have been added. The first two are the highest (last) occurrence of Sphenolithus delphix and Sphenolithus capricornutus at 23.6 Ma, which is immediately above the Oligocene-Miocene boundary as identified by the last occurrence of Reticulofenestra bisecta at 23.7 Ma. The next unconventional datum is the highest (last) occurrence of Ilselithina fusa at 22.8 Ma, which is also the highest (last) occurrence of Helicosphaera recta. Calcidiscus tropicus' lowest (first) occurrence is at 19.5 Ma, which is also the lowest occurrence of Sphenolithus belemnos, and Calcidiscus leptoporus' lowest (first) occurrence coincides with that of Sphenolithus heteromorphus at 18.5 Ma. Sphenolithus dissimilis' highest (last) occurrence is at 18.2 Ma and the Calcidiscus premacintyrei lowest (first) and highest (last) occurrences are, respectively, at 17.7 and 11.7 Ma. Discoaster braarudii occurs from 11.6 to 11.3 Ma and its highest (last) occurrence corresponds to that of Cyclicargolithus floridanus. Minylitha convallis occurs from 9.0 to 6.9 Ma. Within the range of Minylitha, at 8.0 Ma, a major shift occurs in reticulofenestrid placoliths from dominantly large (Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilicus) and medium size (Reticulofenestra minutula) species below to significant numbers of very small species (Dictyococcites productus and Gephyrocapsa) above. This is interpreted to be a major, though perhaps seasonal, change of productivity of the North Atlantic at Site 608. A new genus and species Cryptococcolithus takayamae, is described and a variety, Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilicus var. amplus is identified.

Determining Spatial Distribution and Physical Properties of the Vashon Advance Outwash near Mountlake Terrace, Washington

This study is aimed at determining the spatial distribution, physical properties, and groundwater conditions of the Vashon advance outwash (Qva) in the Mountlake Terrace, WA area. The Qva is correlative with the Esperance Sand, as defined at its type section; however, local variations in the Qva are not well-characterized (Mullineaux, 1965). While the Qva is a dense glacial unit with low compressibility and high frictional shear strength (Gurtowski and Boirum, 1989), the strength of this unit can be reduced when it becomes saturated (Tubbs, 1974). This can lead to caving or flowing in excavations, and on a larger scale, can lead to slope failures and mass-wasting when intersected by steep slopes. By studying the Qva, we can better predict how it will behave under certain conditions, which will be beneficial to geologists, hydrogeologists, engineers, and environmental scientists during site assessments and early phases of project planning. In this study, I use data from 27 geotechnical borings from previous field investigations and C-Tech Corporation’s EnterVol software to create three-dimensional models of the subsurface geology in the study area. These models made it possible to visualize the spatial distribution of the Qva in relation to other geologic units. I also conducted a comparative study between data from the borings and generalized published data on the spatial distribution, relative density, soil classification, grain-size distribution, moisture content, groundwater conditions, and aquifer properties of the Qva. I found that the elevation of the top of the Qva ranges from 247 to 477 ft. I found that the Qva is thickest where the modern topography is high, and is thinnest where the topography is low. The thickness of the Qva ranges from absent to 242 ft. Along the northern, east-west trending transect, the Qva thins to the east as it rises above a ridge composed of Pre- Vashon glacial deposits. Along the southern, east-west trending transect, the Qva pinches out against a ridge composed of pre-Vashon interglacial deposits. Two plausible explanations for this ridge are paleotopography and active faulting associated with the Southern Whidbey Fault Zone. Further investigations should be done using geophysical methods and the modeling methods described in this study to determine the nature of this ridge. The relative density of the Qva in the study area ranges from loose to very dense, with the loose end of the spectrum probably relating to heave in saturated sands. I found subtle correlations between density and depth. Volumetric analysis of the soil groups listed in the boring logs indicate that the Qva in the study area is composed of approximately 9.5% gravel, 89.3% sand, and 1.2% silt and clay. The natural moisture content ranges from 3.0 to 35.4% in select samples from the Qva. The moisture content appears to increase with depth and fines content. The water table in the study area ranges in elevation from 231.9 to 458 ft, based on observations and measurements recorded in the boring logs. The results from rising-head and falling-head slug tests done at a single well in the study area indicate that the geometric mean of hydraulic conductivity is 15.93 ft/d (5.62 x 10-03 cm/s), the storativity is 3.28x10-03, and the estimated transmissivity is 738.58 ft2/d in the vicinity of this observation well. At this location, there was 1.73 ft of seasonal variation in groundwater elevation between August 2014 and March 2015.

Beluga whale distribution, migration, and behavior in a changing Pacific Arctic

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Seasonal growth of foliose lichens in successive years in South Gwynedd, Wales

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that differences in the pattern of seasonal growth in foliose lichens from year to year were determined by yearly differences in the distribution of rainfall, shortwave radiation and temperature. Hence, the radial growth of Parmelia conspersa (Ehrh. Ex Ach.) Ach. , P. glabratula ssp. fuliginosa (Fr. ex Duby) Laund. and Physcia orbicularis (Neck) Poetsch. was studied on slate fragments over 34 successive months in an area of South Gwynedd, Wales. U.K. Similarities and differences were observed in the pattern of seasonal growth in the three species. Periods of maximum growth of a species occurred in different seasons in successive years. Correlation and multiple regression analysis suggested that total rainfall per month was the most important climatic variable positively correlated with monthly growth. Significant positive correlations were found in some growth periods with number of raindays per month, average wind speed and maximum and minimum temperature. Total number of sunshine hours per month and the frequency of ground frosts were negatively correlated with monthly growth in some growth periods. For each species, monthly radial growth was correlated with different climatic variables in each growth period. Hence, the results support the hypothesis in that periods of maximum growth can occur in any season in South Gwynedd and depend on (1) the distribution of periods of high total rainfall and (2) whether or not these periods coincide with periods of maximum sunlight.

Physical factors influencing the distribution of a top predator in a subtropical oligotrophic estuary

We used longline fishing to determine the effects of distance from the ocean, season, and short-term variation in abiotic conditions on the abundance of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) in an estuary of the Florida Everglades, U.S.A. Logistic regression revealed that young-of-the-year sharks were concentrated at a protected site 20 km upstream and were present in greater abundance when dissolved oxygen (DO) levels were high. For older juvenile sharks (age 1+), DO levels had the greatest influence on catch probabilities followed by distance from the ocean; they were most likely to be caught at sites with .3.5 mg L21 DO and on the main branch of the river 20 km upstream. Salinity had a relatively small effect on catch rates and there were no seasonal shifts in shark distribution. Our results highlight the importance of considering DO as a possible driver of top predator distributions in estuaries, even in the absence of hypoxia. In Everglades estuaries hydrological drivers that affect DO levels (e.g., groundwater discharge, modification of primary productivity through nutrient fluxes) will be important in determining shark distributions, and the effects of planned ecosystem restoration efforts on bull sharks will not simply be mediated by changing salinity regimes and the location of the oligohaline zone. More generally, variation in DO levels could structure the nature and spatiotemporal pattern of top predator effects in the coastal Everglades, and other tropical and subtropical estuaries, because of interspecific variation in reliance on DO within the top predator guild.

Distribution of Diatoms and Development of Diatom-Based Models for Inferring Salinity and Nutrient Concentrations in Florida Bay and Adjacent Coastal Wetlands of South Florida (USA)

The composition and distribution of diatom algae inhabiting estuaries and coasts of the subtropical Americas are poorly documented, especially relative to the central role diatoms play in coastal food webs and to their potential utility as sentinels of environmental change in these threatened ecosystems. Here, we document the distribution of diatoms among the diverse habitat types and long environmental gradients represented by the shallow topographic relief of the South Florida, USA, coastline. A total of 592 species were encountered from 38 freshwater, mangrove, and marine locations in the Everglades wetland and Florida Bay during two seasonal collections, with the highest diversity occurring at sites of high salinity and low water column organic carbon concentration (WTOC). Freshwater, mangrove, and estuarine assemblages were compositionally distinct, but seasonal differences were only detected in mangrove and estuarine sites where solute concentration differed greatly between wet and dry seasons. Epiphytic, planktonic, and sediment assemblages were compositionally similar, implying a high degree of mixing along the shallow, tidal, and storm-prone coast. The relationships between diatom taxa and salinity, water total phosphorus (WTP), water total nitrogen (WTN), and WTOC concentrations were determined and incorporated into weighted averaging partial least squares regression models. Salinity was the most influential variable, resulting in a highly predictive model (r apparent 2  = 0.97, r jackknife 2  = 0.95) that can be used in the future to infer changes in coastal freshwater delivery or sea-level rise in South Florida and compositionally similar environments. Models predicting WTN (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.46), WTP (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.49), and WTOC (r apparent 2  = 0.79, r jackknife 2  = 0.57) were also strong, suggesting that diatoms can provide reliable inferences of changes in solute delivery to the coastal ecosystem.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Distribution of marine fungi in the North Sea

The ecology of the lower marine fungi, namely the thraustochytrides, in the Fladen Ground area (FLEX box) and other parts of the North Sea was studied during 5 cruises in 1975 and 1976. The number of fungi/liter and the number of species showed seasonal fluctuations in the surface water samples from all the stations. A high number was found in September 1976 and a lower number in March 1976. These numbers, however, revealed no seasonal fluctuations in the underlying sediments. In both the surface waters and the sediments, a consistingly low number of fungi was recorded for certain stations and a high number of fungi for others, the reason for this beeing unknown. The sediments revealed a very high number of fungi/liter. Observations on the distribution of various species are presented. Certain species occured more frequently at some stations than at others; certain species occured more in the water column, e.g. Ulkenia minuta, and still others in the sediments, e.g. Thraustochytrium multirudimentale.

Distribution of surface sediment properties along the Portuguese western margin

Organic matter contained in surface sediments from four regions on the western Portuguese shelf, which are influenced by coastal upwelling and fluvial input, was analysed with respect to elemental organic carbon (Corg) and nitrogen (Ntotal) content and isotopic carbon and nitrogen ratios (d13Corg, d15N). Corg/Ntotal weight ratios and d13Corg values are interpreted in terms of terrigenous or marine organic matter sources, supported by CaCO3 content. Organic matter in the shelf sediments is mainly of marine origin, with increasing terrigenous components only close to rivers and estuaries. In the northern shelf region the data indicates significant terrigenous supply by the Douro River. North of the Nazaré Canyon organic matter composition implies a mainly marine origin, with a higher terrestrial influence close to the canyon head. Organic matter composition in the central shelf region, which is dominated by the Tagus Estuary and the Tagus prodelta, reveals a change from a continental-type signature within the estuary to a more marine-type signature further to the west and south of the estuary mouth. In the southern region near Cape Sines the geochemical properties clearly reflect the marine origin of sedimentary organic matter. Sedimentary d15N values are interpreted to reflect various degrees of assimilation of seasonally upwelled nitrate, in relation to the upwelling centres. In the estuarine environment, inputs of agriculturally influenced dissolved inorganic nitrogen are reflected in the sediments. No evidence for N2-fixation or denitrification is found. On the central shelf north of the Nazaré canyon, sedimentary d15N values are close to marine d15NO3- and thus indicate a complete NO3- assimilation and N-limitation of marine production. Light d15N values in distal sediments off the Douro River mouth and in samples south of C. Sines reflect high NO3- supply and a close proximity to the seasonal upwelling centres. Particularly in sediments form the Sines region, light d15N values in southern samples reflect stronger upwelling further south.

EUSAAR size distribution analysis database

Two years of harmonized aerosol number size distribution data from 24 European field monitoring sites have been analysed. The results give a comprehensive overview of the European near surface aerosol particle number concentrations and number size distributions between 30 and 500 nm of dry particle diameter. Spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols in the particle sizes most important for climate applications are presented. We also analyse the annual, weekly and diurnal cycles of the aerosol number concentrations, provide log-normal fitting parameters for median number size distributions, and give guidance notes for data users. Emphasis is placed on the usability of results within the aerosol modelling community. We also show that the aerosol number concentrations of Aitken and accumulation mode particles (with 100 nm dry diameter as a cut-off between modes) are related, although there is significant variation in the ratios of the modal number concentrations. Different aerosol and station types are distinguished from this data and this methodology has potential for further categorization of stations aerosol number size distribution types. The European submicron aerosol was divided into characteristic types: Central European aerosol, characterized by single mode median size distributions, unimodal number concentration histograms and low variability in CCN-sized aerosol number concentrations; Nordic aerosol with low number concentrations, although showing pronounced seasonal variation of especially Aitken mode particles; Mountain sites (altitude over 1000 m a.s.l.) with a strong seasonal cycle in aerosol number concentrations, high variability, and very low median number concentrations. Southern and Western European regions had fewer stations, which decreases the regional coverage of these results. Aerosol number concentrations over the Britain and Ireland had very high variance and there are indications of mixed air masses from several source regions; the Mediterranean aerosol exhibit high seasonality, and a strong accumulation mode in the summer. The greatest concentrations were observed at the Ispra station in Northern Italy with high accumulation mode number concentrations in the winter. The aerosol number concentrations at the Arctic station Zeppelin in Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard have also a strong seasonal cycle, with greater concentrations of accumulation mode particles in winter, and dominating summer Aitken mode indicating more recently formed particles. Observed particles did not show any statistically significant regional work-week or weekday related variation in number concentrations studied. Analysis products are made for open-access to the research community, available in a freely accessible internet site. The results give to the modelling community a reliable, easy-to-use and freely available comparison dataset of aerosol size distributions.