Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More specifically, we first focus on the UK-US relationship, and interestingly find limited evidence of this long-run relationship using traditional methods. But when an approach robust to endogenously determined structural breaks is employed, we find evidence that the real interest rate differential is an important determinant of the real exchange rate. Secondly, in order to investigate the relevance of structural shifts in a more global context, we carry out multiple country analysis. While providing evidence of this long-run relationship, European data suggest that the presence of structural breaks is not very common across countries and is indeed country-specific.

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

Modelling Breaks and Clusters in the Steady States of Macroeconomic Variables

Macroeconomists working with multivariate models typically face uncertainty over which (if any) of their variables have long run steady states which are subject to breaks. Furthermore, the nature of the break process is often unknown. In this paper, we draw on methods from the Bayesian clustering literature to develop an econometric methodology which: i) finds groups of variables which have the same number of breaks; and ii) determines the nature of the break process within each group. We present an application involving a five-variate steady-state VAR.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

Competition for FDI and profit shifting: On the effects of subsidies and tax breaks

We investigate competition for FDI within a region when a foreign multinational rm can profitably exploit differences in statutory corporate tax rates by shifting taxable pro ts to lower-tax jurisdictions. In such framework we show that targeted tax competition may lead to higher welfare for the region as a whole than lump-sum subsidies when the difference in statutory corporate tax rates and/or their average is high enough. Tax competition is also preferable from an efficiency point of view (overall surplus) by changing the firm's investment decision when pro t shifting motivations induce the rm to locate in the (before tax) least pro table country.

Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

Energetics of RecA-mediated recombination reactions. Without ATP hydrolysis RecA can mediate polar strand exchange but is unable to recycle.

We demonstrate that the step of DNA strand exchange during RecA-mediated recombination reaction can occur equally efficiently in the presence or absence of ATP hydrolysis. The polarity of strand exchange is the same when instead of ATP its non-hydrolyzable analog adenosine-5'-O-(3-thiotriphosphate) is used. We show that the ATP dependence of recombination reaction is limited to the post-exchange stages of the reactions. The low DNA affinity state of RecA protomers, induced after ATP hydrolysis, is necessary for the dissociation of RecA-DNA complexes at the end of the reaction. This dissociation of RecA from DNA is necessary for the release of recombinant DNA molecules from the complexes formed with RecA and for the recycling of RecA protomers for another round of the recombination reaction.

Healthy breaks: tasty tips for the under fives

Today the Public Health Agency is launching a new resource pack designed to assist nursery schools and playgroups deliver a healthy breaks scheme.All nursery schools and playgroups in Northern Ireland will receive the pack - 'Healthy breaks for pre-school children' - which includes a poster and information leaflets for parents explaining why a healthy break is so important for pre-school children and some tips and ideas for healthy nutritious breaks.Judith Hanvey, Regional Food in Schools Co-ordinator, appointed jointly by the PHA and the Department of Education, said: "Break-time snacking schemes currently operate in many pre-school settings across Northern Ireland, however they are implemented in different ways. The PHA has developed this new guidance so that any existing or future schemes have the information that they need to deliver a healthy break programme."Judith explained why a healthy break is so important for pre-school pupils."Young children have small stomachs but high requirements for energy (calories) and nutrients. This means that healthy snacks between meals are very important to make sure that they get all the nourishment they need."Childhood is also an important time to establish good eating and drinking habits for later life."Healthy eating schemes give children the knowledge and opportunity to make healthier choices."The Department of Education and Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety recently launched 'Healthy Food for Healthy Outcomes: Food in Schools Policy', which builds on the nutritional standards which were introduced in 2007 by the Department of Education.The policy encourages a 'whole school approach' to all food and drink provided and consumed in schools. This ensures that children have the opportunity to benefit from a healthy balanced diet, which can aid learning, leading to improved educational outcomes. It also requires that every school should have their own whole-school food policy in place by September 2014. Nursery schools that receive funding from the Department of Education must follow this policy.This is also in line with the position taken by the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's 10 year obesity prevention strategy, A Fitter Future for All, which aims to take a consistent approach to healthy food within early years settings.

Another strand to the DNA story

Review of the book: The third man of the double Helix by Maurice Wilkins. 10.1038/sj.embor.7400062

Detection of rifampin resistance patterns in Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated in Iran by polymerase chain reaction-single-strand conformation polymorphism and direct sequencing methods

Mutations in the rpoB locus confer conformational changes leading to defective binding of rifampin (RIF) to rpoB and consequently resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Polymerase chain reaction-single-strand conformation polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) was established as a rapid screening test for the detection of mutations in the rpoB gene, and direct sequencing has been unambiguously applied to characterize mutations. A total of 37 of Iranian isolates of M. tuberculosis, 16 sensitive and 21 resistant to RIF, were used in this study. A 193-bp region of the rpoB gene was amplified and PCR-SSCP patterns were determined by electrophoresis in 10% acrylamide gel and silver staining. Also, 21 samples of 193-bp rpoB amplicons with different PCR-SSCP patterns from RIFr and 10 from RIFs were sequenced. Seven distinguishable PCR-SSCP patterns were recognized in the 21 Iranian RIFr strains, while 15 out of 16 RIFs isolates demonstrated PCR-SSCP banding patterns similar to that of sensitive standard strain H37Rv. However one of the sensitive isolates demonstrated a different pattern. There were seen six different mutations in the amplified region of rpoB gene: codon 516(GAC/GTC), 523(GGG/GGT), 526(CAC/TAC), 531(TCG/TTG), 511(CTG/TTG), and 512(AGC/TCG). This study demonstrated the high specificity (93.8%) and sensitivity (95.2%) of PCR-SSCP method for detection of mutation in rpoB gene; 85.7% of RIFr strains showed a single mutation and 14.3% had no mutations. Three strains showed mutations caused polymorphism. Our data support the common notion that rifampin resistance genotypes are generally present mutations in codons 531 and 526, most frequently found in M. tuberculosis populations regardless of geographic origin.

Healthy breaks for schools poster (English and Irish)

Guidance on healthy breaks for schoolchildren.

Healthy breaks for schools leaflet (English and Irish)

Guidance on healthy breaks for schoolchildren. (Translations revised March 2014)

Healthy breaks for pre-school children leaflet (English and Irish translation)

Leaflet for parents explaining why a healthy break is so important for pre-school children and some tips and ideas for healthy nutritious breaks.�

Healthy breaks for pre-school children poster (English and Irish translation)

Poster explaining why a healthy break is important.�

Effect of length and location of heterologous sequences on RecA-mediated strand exchange.

We systematically investigated the effect of heterology on RecA-mediated strand exchange between double-stranded linear and single-stranded circular DNA. Strand exchange took place through heterologies of up to 150-200 base pairs when the insertion was at the proximal (initiating) end of the duplex DNA but was completely blocked by an insert of only 22 base pairs placed at the distal end of the duplex. In the case of medial heterology created by insertion either in the duplex or the single-stranded DNA, the ability of RecA to exchange strands decreased as the heterology was shifted toward the distal end of the duplex. These results suggest that two different strand exchange mechanisms operate in the proximal and distal portions of the duplex substrate.