Predictive Validity of Waterlow Scale for Pressure Ulcer Development Risk in Hospitalized Patients

AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

Risk factors for neonatal transfers from the Sapopemba free-standing birth centre to a hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective: to identify risk factors associated with neonatal transfers from a free-standing birth centre to a hospital. Design: epidemiological case-control study. Setting: midwifery-led free-standing birth centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants: 96 newborns were selected from 2840 births between September 1998 and August 2005. Cases were defined as all new borns transferred from the birth centre to a hospital (n = 32), and controls were defined as new borns delivered at the same birth centre, during the same time period, and who had not been transferred to a hospital (n = 64). Measurements and findings: data were collected from medical records available at the birth centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The multivariate analysis included outcomes with p<0.25, specifically: smoking during pregnancy, prenatal care appointments, labour complications, weight in relation to gestational age, and one-minute Apgar score. Of the foregoing outcomes, those that remained in the full regression model as a risk factor associated with neonatal transfer were: smoking during pregnancy [p = 0.009, odds ratio (OR) = 4.1,95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-16.33], labour complications (p<0.001, OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.06-28.26) and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 (p<0.001, OR = 7.8,95% CI 1.62-37.03). Key conclusions and implications for practice: smoking during pregnancy, labour complications and one-minute Apgar score <= 7 were confirmed as risk factors for neonatal transfer from the birth centre to a hospital. The identified risk factors can help to improve institutional protocols and formulate hypotheses for other studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of biologic occupational risk control practices: Quality indicators development and validation

Background: There is growing demand for the adoption of qualification systems for health care practices. This study is aimed at describing the development and validation of indicators for evaluation of biologic occupational risk control programs. Methods: The study involved 3 stages: (1) setting up a research team, (2) development of indicators, and (3) validation of the indicators by a team of specialists recruited to validate each attribute of the developed indicators. The content validation method was used for the validation, and a psychometric scale was developed for the specialists` assessment. A consensus technique was used, and every attribute that obtained a Content Validity Index of at least 0.75 was approved. Results: Eight indicators were developed for the evaluation of the biologic occupational risk prevention program, with emphasis on accidents caused by sharp instruments and occupational tuberculosis prevention. The indicators included evaluation of the structure, process, and results at the prevention and biologic risk control levels. The majority of indicators achieved a favorable consensus regarding all validated attributes. Conclusion: The developed indicators were considered validated, and the method used for construction and validation proved to be effective.

Evaluation of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden biopulping with Ceriporiopsis subvermispora under non-aseptic conditions

In biopulping, efficient wood colonization by a selected white-rot fungus depends on previous wood chip decontamination to avoid the growth of primary molds. Although simple to perform in the laboratory, in large-scale biopulping trials, complete wood decontamination is difficult to achieve. Furthermore, the use of fungal growth promoters such as corn steep liquor enhances the risk of culture contamination. This paper evaluates the ability of the biopulping fungus Ceriporiopsis subvermispora to compete with indigenous fungi in cultures of fresh or poorly decontaminated Eucalyptus grandis wood chips. While cultures containing autoclaved wood chips were completely free of contaminants, primary molds grew rapidly when non-autoclaved wood chips were used, resulting in heavily contaminated cultures, regardless of the C. subvermispora inoculum/wood ratio evaluated (5, 50 and 3000 mg mycelium kg(-1) wood). Studies on benomyl-amended medium suggested that the fungi involved competed by consumption of the easily available nutrient sources, with C. subvermispora less successful than the contaminant fungi. The use of acid-washed wood chips decreased the level of such contaminant fungi, but production of manganese peroxidase and xylanases was also decreased under these conditions. Nevertheless, chemithermomechanical pulping of acid-washed samples biotreated under non-aseptic conditions gave similar fibrillation improvements compared to samples subjected to the standard biodegradation process using autoclaved wood chips.

Identifying an active case of tuberculosis

The best practice standards set out in chapter 2 of the Best Practice guide focus on the various aspects of identifying an active case of TB and aim to address some of the challenges associated with case detection. The importance of developing a good relationship with the patient from the start, when he or she is often most vulnerable, is emphasised. The first standard focuses on the assessment of someone who might have TB and the second gives detailed guidance about the collection of sputum for diagnosis. The standards are aimed at the health care worker, who assesses the patient when he or she presents at a health care facility and therefore needs to be familiar with the signs, symptoms and risk factors associated with TB. Having suspected TB, the health care worker then needs to ensure that the correct tests are ordered and procedures are followed so that the best quality samples possible are sent to the laboratory and all documentation is filled out clearly and correctly. The successful implementation of these standards can be measured by the accurate and prompt reporting of results, the registration of every case detected and the continued attendance of every patient who needs treatment.

Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An air-standard cycle and a thermodynamic perspective on operational limits of Ranque-Hilsh or vortex tubes

A Thermodynamic air-standard cycle was envisaged for Ranque-Hilsh (R-H) or Vortex Tubes to provide relevant Thermodynamic analysis and tools for setting operating limits according to the conservation laws of mass and energy, as well as the constraint of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The study used an integral or control volume approach and resulted in establishing working equations for evaluating the performance of an R-H tube. The work proved that the coefficient of performance does not depend on the R-H tube operating mode, i.e., the same value is obtained independently if the R-H tube operates either as a heat pump or as a refrigeration device. It was also shown that the isentropic coefficient of performance displays optima values of cold and hot mass fractions for a given operating pressure ratio. Finally, the study was concluded by comparing the present analysis with some experimental data available in the literature for operating pressures ranging 2-11 atm. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved.

Identification and control of occupational risks in a Sao Paulo metropolitan region quarry

Crushed stone mining is the third largest mining economy in Brazil, where almost half is produced in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region. The segment registers the highest number of accidents among the extractive industries, which justifies the concern with workers` health and safety, and the importance of controlling occupational hazards. Since 2002, the NR-22 Standard (NR-22: Occupational Health and Safety in Mining) makes compulsory the elaboration of a Risk Management Program that identifies risks and establishes control measures. Considering the crushed stone mining industry importance to the state, this paper evaluates and discusses the risks identified in unit operations during the production process of crushed stone in an open pit mine in order to propose control measures for the development of the Risk Management Program. Although this study refers to a specific quarry, it can be applied to other mines from the same sector since some considerations are made regarding differences in manufacturing processes. The research was based on the identification of the main risks associated with drilling, blasting, load & haulage, crushing and screening through field measurements of some hazardous agents, together with company reports. The results contributed to the choice of the appropriate control measures for the improvement Of workers` health and safety conditions.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analog performance of standard and strained triple-gate silicon-on-insulator nFinFETs

This work shows a comparison between the analog performance of standard and strained Si n-type triple-gate FinFETs with high-K dielectrics and TiN gate material. Different channel lengths and fin widths are studied. It is demonstrated that both standard and strained FinFETs with short channel length and narrow fins have similar analog properties, whereas the increase of the channel length degrades the early voltage of the strained devices, consequently decreasing the device intrinsic voltage gain with respect to standard ones. Narrow strained FinFETs with long channel show a degradation of the Early voltage if compared to standard ones suggesting that strained devices are more subjected to the channel length modulation effect. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.