PCJ River Basins` Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of So Paulo

A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tiet. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Spatial patterns of soil attributes and components in a mangrove system in Southeast Brazil (Sao Paulo)

Purpose Among environmental factors governing innumerous processes that are active in estuarine environments, those of edaphic character have received special attention in recent studies. With the objectives of determining the spatial patterns of soil attributes and components across different mangrove forest landscapes and obtaining additional information on the cause-effect relationships between these variables and position within the estuary, we analyzed several soil attributes in 31 mangrove soil profiles from the state of So Paulo (Guaruja, Brazil). Materials and methods Soil samples were collected at low tide along two transects within the CrumahA(0) mangrove forest. Samples were analyzed to determine pH, Eh, salinity, and the percentages of sand, silt, clay, total organic carbon (TOC), and total S. Mineralogy of the clay fraction (< 2 mm) was also studied by X-ray diffraction analysis, and partitioning of solid-phase Fe was performed by sequential extraction. Results and discussion The results obtained indicate important differences in soil composition at different depths and landscape positions, causing variations in physicochemical parameters, clay mineralogy, TOC contents, and iron geochemistry. The results also indicate that physicochemical conditions may vary in terms of different local microtopographies. Soil salinity was determined by relative position in relation to flood tide and transition areas with highlands. The proportions of TOC and total S are conditioned by the sedimentation of organic matter derived from vegetation and by the prevailing redox conditions, which clearly favored intense sulfate reduction in the soils (similar to 80% of the total Fe is Fe-pyrite). Particle-size distribution is conditioned by erosive/deposition processes (present and past) and probably by the positioning of ancient and reworked sandy ridges. The existing physicochemical conditions appear to contribute to the synthesis (smectite) and transformation (kaolinite) of clay minerals. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the position of soils in the estuary greatly affects soil attributes. Differences occur even at small scales (meters), indicating that both edaphic (soil classification, soil mineralogy, and soil genesis) and environmental (contamination and carbon stock) studies should take such variability into account.

Determination of heavy metals by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry in fish from the Piracicaba River in Southern Brazil

A total of 202 fish, representing 16 species, were collected during 2008 (March-October) in the Tanquan region of the Piracicaba River using nets. Flesh samples were collected and analyzed, using inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy for Al, As, Cd, Co Cr, Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, Ph, Se, Sn, Sr, and Zn. The results showed that the flesh of these fish all contained extremely high levels of Al and Sr, and moderately high levels of Cr, As, Zn, Ni. Mn and Pb. The metals were higher in these fish during rainy season, with fish collected during the months of March and October being the highest. In addition, the accumulation of metals was species-dependent. Cascudos (Hypostomus punctatus) and piranhas (Serrasalmus spilopleura) exhibited high levels of almost all of the metals, while curimbata (Prochilodus lineatus) had moderate levels. A few species, including pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus) and dourado (Salminus maxillosus), had very low levels of most metals. The results show that the Piracicaba River Basin is widely contaminated with high levels of many toxic heavy metals, and that human consumption of some fish species is a human health concern. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of Hg and diet identification in otter (Lontra longicaudis) feces

An analytical procedure for the determination of Hg in otter (Lontra longicaudis) feces was developed, to separate fish scales for the identification of the animal diet. Samples were washed with ultra-pure water and the suspension was sampled and transferred for digestion. The solubilization was performed with nitric-perchloric acid mixture, and detection carried out by the atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS). The quality of the analytical procedure was assessed by analyzing in-house standard solutions and certified reference materials. Total Hg concentrations were in the range of 7.6-156 ng g(-1) (July 2004), 25.6-277 ng g(-1) (January 2005) and 14.6-744 ng g(-1) (May 2005) that is approximately the same order of magnitude for all samples collected in two reservoirs at the Tiete River, Brazil. Although Hg concentrations varied with sampling periods and diet, high levels were correlated to the percentage of carnivorous fish scales present in the otter feces. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

Assessment of Ametryn Contamination in River Water, River Sediment, and Mollusk Bivalves in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Sao Paulo state, Brazil, is one of the main areas of sugar cane agriculture in the world. Herbicides, in particular, ametryn, are extensively used in this extensive area, which implies that this herbicide is present in the environment and can contaminate the surface water by running off. Thereby, residues of ametryn were analyzed in samples of river water an river sediment and in freshwater bivalves obtained from the rivers Sapucai, Pardo and Mogi-Guacu in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Samples were taken in the winter of 2003 and 2004 in two locations in each river. The specimens of freshwater bivalves collected and analyzed were Corbicula fluminea, an exotic species, and Diplodon fontaineanus, a native species. Additionally, the evaluation of the ability of bioconcentration and depuration of ametryn by the freshwater bivalve Corbicula fluminea was also performed. Ametryn concentrations in the samples were measured by liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Residues of ametryn in water (50 ng/L) and in freshwater bivalves (2-7 ng/g) were found in the Mogi-Guacu River in 2004, and residues in river sediments were found in all rivers in 2003 and 2004 (0.5-2 ng/g). The observation of the aquatic environment through the analysis of these matrixes, water, sediment, and bivalves, revealed the importance of the river sediment in the accumulation of the herbicide ametryn, which can contaminate the biota.

EVALUATION OF DICLORAN`S CONTRIBUTION TO THE MUTAGENIC ACTIVITY OF CRISTAIS RIVER, BRAZIL, WATER SAMPLES

2,6-Dichloro-4-nitroaniline (dicloran) is a mutagenic aromatic amine used as an agricultural fungicide and in the synthesis of disperse dyes. It is a known mutagen (Salmonella/microsome assay) in strains TA98 and TA100. Dicloran was initially detected, but not quantified, in the Cristais River, Brazil. The objective of the present study was to estimate the contribution of dicloran to mutagenic activity in samples from this river. Dicloran was found in the raw water at 0.14 mu g/L but not in the treated water. Comparison of mutagenic potencies in Salmonella strain YG1041 for dicloran and the river water sample indicated that dicloran contributed less than 0.1% of total mutagenic activity.

River elevation, Kangaroo Point House, Kangaroo Point, Brisbane

As seen from jetty, looking back towards house and crow's nest.

All in Good Time: Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity

Since their discovery 150 years ago, Neanderthals have been considered incapable of behavioural change and innovation. Traditional synchronic approaches to the study of Neanderthal behaviour have perpetuated this view and shaped our understanding of their lifeways and eventual extinction. In this thesis I implement an innovative diachronic approach to the analysis of Neanderthal faunal extraction, technology and symbolic behaviour as contained in the archaeological record of the critical period between 80,000 and 30,000 years BP. The thesis demonstrates patterns of change in Neanderthal behaviour which are at odds with traditional perspectives and which are consistent with an interpretation of increasing behavioural complexity over time, an idea that has been suggested but never thoroughly explored in Neanderthal archaeology. Demonstrating an increase in behavioural complexity in Neanderthals provides much needed new data with which to fuel the debate over the behavioural capacities of Neanderthals and the first appearance of Modern Human Behaviour in Europe. It supports the notion that Neanderthal populations were active agents of behavioural innovation prior to the arrival of Anatomically Modern Humans in Europe and, ultimately, that they produced an early Upper Palaeolithic cultural assemblage (the Châtelperronian) independent of modern humans. Overall, this thesis provides an initial step towards the development of a quantitative approach to measuring behavioural complexity which provides fresh insights into the cognitive and behavioural capabilities of Neanderthals.

Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity: An Innovative Approach to the Study of Neanderthal Behaviour

Diachronic approaches provide potential for a more sophisticated framework within which to examine change in Neanderthal behavioural complexity using archaeological proxies such as symbolic artefacts, faunal assemblages and technology. Analysis of the temporal appearance and distribution of such artefacts and assemblages provide the basis for identifying changes in Neanderthal behavioural complexity in terms of symbolism, faunal extraction and technology respectively. Although changes in technology and faunal extraction were examined in the wider study, only the results of the symbolic study are presented below to illustrate the potential of the approach.

Two times three little pigs: Dysfluency, cognitive complexity and autism

This paper presents an analysis of dysfluencies in two oral tellings of a familiar children's story by a young boy with autism. Thurber & Tager-Flusberg (1993) postulate a lower degree of cognitive and communicative investment to explain a lower frequency of non-grammatical pauses observed in elicited narratives of children with autism in comparison to typically developing and intellectually disabled controls. we also found a very low frequency of non-grammatical pauses in our data, but indications of high engagement and cognitive and communicative investment. We point to a wider range of disfluencies as indicators of cognitive load, and show that the kind and location of dysfluencies produced may reveal which aspects of the narrative task are creating the greatest cognitive demand: here, mental state ascription, perspectivization, and adherence to story schema. This paper thus generates analytical options and hypotheses that can be explored further in a larger population of children with autism and typically developing controls.