Characterizing the Risk Profiles of Intensive Care Units

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new method to evaluate the performance of individual ICUs through the calculation and visualisation of risk profiles. METHODS: The study included 102,561 patients consecutively admitted to 77 ICUs in Austria. We customized the function which predicts hospital mortality (using SAPS II) for each ICU. We then compared the risks of hospital mortality resulting from this function with the risks which would be obtained using the original function. The derived risk ratio was then plotted together with point-wise confidence intervals in order to visualise the individual risk profile of each ICU over the whole spectrum of expected hospital mortality. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: We calculated risk profiles for all ICUs in the ASDI data set according to the proposed method. We show examples how the clinical performance of ICUs may depend on the severity of illness of their patients. Both the distribution of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistics and the histogram of the corresponding P values demonstrated a good fit of the individual risk models. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk profile model makes it possible to evaluate ICUs on the basis of the specific risk for patients to die compared to a reference sample over the whole spectrum of hospital mortality. Thus, ICUs at different levels of severity of illness can be directly compared, giving a clear advantage over the use of the conventional single point estimate of the overall observed-to-expected mortality ratio.

Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Intracoronary Delivery of Human Mesenchymal/Stromal Stem Cells: Insights from Coronary Microcirculation Invasive Assessment in a Swine Model

BACKGROUND: Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells have unique properties favorable to their use in clinical practice and have been studied for cardiac repair. However, these cells are larger than coronary microvessels and there is controversy about the risk of embolization and microinfarctions, which could jeopardize the safety and efficacy of intracoronary route for their delivery. The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) is an invasive method for quantitatively assessing the coronary microcirculation status. OBJECTIVES: To examine heart microcirculation after intracoronary injection of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells with the index of microcirculatory resistance. METHODS: Healthy swine were randomized to receive by intracoronary route either 30x106 MSC or the same solution with no cells (1% human albumin/PBS) (placebo). Blinded operators took coronary pressure and flow measurements, prior to intracoronary infusion and at 5 and 30 minutes post-delivery. Coronary flow reserve (CFR) and the IMR were compared between groups. RESULTS: CFR and IMR were done with a variance within the 3 transit time measurements of 6% at rest and 11% at maximal hyperemia. After intracoronary infusion there were no significant differences in CFR. The IMR was significantly higher in MSC-injected animals (at 30 minutes, 14.2U vs. 8.8U, p = 0.02) and intragroup analysis showed a significant increase of 112% from baseline to 30 minutes after cell infusion, although no electrocardiographic changes or clinical deterioration were noted. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides definitive evidence of microcirculatory disruption upon intracoronary administration of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells, in a large animal model closely resembling human cardiac physiology, function and anatomy.

Parametric portfolio policies: An application for a global tactical asset allocation model

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Nevirapine in an animal model of pre-diabetes: study of drug pharmacokinetic and its effects on fasting glycemia and insulin resistance

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Biotecnologia

Business model: What should be the strategy used by Smart Galp to implement and potentiate its value proposition in the Portuguese market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk factors for Leishmania chagasi infection in an urban area of Minas Gerais State

In order to understand the determinants of human infection by Leishmania chagasi in an urban area, a cross-sectional population based study was conducted using molecular and serologic methods to identify infection. Participants were interviewed using a pre-coded questionnaire. Two criteria were tested to identify risk factors: Model 1- including all participants positive in hybridization by Leishmania donovani complex probe; Model 2- including all participants positive for hybridization and at least one serologic test. In Model 1, the variables associated with infection were: ownership of birds, time spent outside house between 6:00-10:00 PM and garbage not collected. In Model 2, the variables associated with infection were: family with knowledge of the vector, garbage not collected, garbage not removed or buried, ownership of birds and eroded areas in the neighborhood. The risk factors identified were associated with household conditions, presence of animals and the likelihood of contact with phlebotomine sandflies.

Chagas disease as a mechanistic model for testing a novel hypothesis

The association between depression and cardiovascular disease is well documented. Nevertheless, the process through which they are linked remains unknown, as does the direction of this relationship. Studies have suggested both that depression is a risk factor for heart disease and that heart disease is a risk factor for depression. A number of studies have established that a relationship exists between depression and inflammation, with alterations in the levels of inflammatory markers (IL-1, IL-6, TNF-alpha and others). Depressive symptoms have also been identified in many diseases characterized by inflammatory processes e.g. rheumatoid arthritis, bronchial asthma, diabetes, tuberculosis and cardiovascular diseases. In this brief viewpoint, we explain and propose how to use Chagas disease, a disorder characterized by inflammatory processes and leading to cardiovascular and autonomic problems, as a model for studying the directionality of the relationship between heart disease and depression.