Impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua en Europa

Esta Tesis realiza una contribución metodológica al estudio del impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua, centrándose particularmente en la agricultura. Tomando en consideración su naturaleza distinta, la metodología aborda de forma integral los impactos sobre la agricultura de secano y la agricultura de regadío. Para ello incorpora diferentes modelos agrícolas y de agua que conjuntamente con las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos permiten determinar indicadores de impacto basados en la productividad de los cultivos, para el caso de la agricultura de secano, e indicadores de impacto basados en la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación, para el caso de la agricultura de regadío. La metodología toma en consideración el efecto de la variabilidad climática en la agricultura, evaluando las necesidades de adaptación y gestión asociadas a los impactos medios y a la variabilidad en la productividad de los cultivos y el efecto de la variabilidad hidrológica en la disponibilidad de agua para regadío. Considerando la gran cantidad de información proporcionada por las salidas de las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos y su complejidad para procesarla, se ha desarrollado una herramienta de cálculo automatizada que integra diferentes escenarios climáticos, métodos y modelos que permiten abordar el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura, a escala de grandes extensiones. El procedimiento metodológico parte del análisis de los escenarios climáticos en situación actual (1961-1990) y futura (2071-2100) para determinar su fiabilidad y conocer qué dicen exactamente las proyecciones climáticas a cerca de los impactos esperados en las principales variables que intervienen en el ciclo hidrológico. El análisis hidrológico se desarrolla en los ámbitos territoriales de la planificación hidrológica en España, considerando la disponibilidad de información para validar los resultados en escenario de control. Se utilizan como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas el modelo hidrológico SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Al trabajar a escala de grandes extensiones, la limitada disponibilidad de datos o la falta de modelos hidrológicos correctamente calibrados para obtener los valores de escorrentía, muchas veces dificulta el proceso de evaluación, por tanto, en este estudio se plantea una metodología que compara diferentes métodos de interpolación y alternativas para generar series anuales de escorrentía que minimicen el sesgo con respecto a los valores observados. Así, en base a la alternativa que genera los mejores resultados, se obtienen series mensuales corregidas a partir de las simulaciones de los modelos climáticos regionales (MCR). Se comparan cuatro métodos de interpolación para obtener los valores de las variables a escala de cuenca hidrográfica, haciendo énfasis en la capacidad de cada método para reproducir los valores observados. Las alternativas utilizadas consideran la utilización de la escorrentía directa simulada por los MCR y la escorrentía media anual calculada utilizando cinco fórmulas climatológicas basadas en el índice de aridez. Los resultados se comparan además con la escorrentía global de referencia proporcionada por la UNH/GRDC que en la actualidad es el “mejor estimador” de la escorrentía actual a gran escala. El impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura de secano se evalúa considerando el efecto combinado de los riesgos asociados a las anomalías dadas por los cambios en la media y la variabilidad de la productividad de los cultivos en las regiones agroclimáticas de Europa. Este procedimiento facilita la determinación de las necesidades de adaptación y la identificación de los impactos regionales que deben ser abordados con mayor urgencia en función de los riesgos y oportunidades identificadas. Para ello se utilizan funciones regionales de productividad que han sido desarrolladas y calibradas en estudios previos en el ámbito europeo. Para el caso de la agricultura de regadío, se utiliza la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación como un indicador del impacto bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Considerando que la mayoría de estudios se han centrado en evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en régimen natural, en este trabajo se incorpora el efecto de las infraestructuras hidráulicas al momento de calcular el recurso disponible bajo escenarios de cambio climático Este análisis se desarrolla en el ámbito español considerando la disponibilidad de información, tanto de las aportaciones como de los modelos de explotación de los sistemas hidráulicos. Para ello se utiliza el modelo de gestión de recursos hídricos WAAPA (Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment) que permite calcular la máxima demanda que puede atenderse bajo determinados criterios de garantía. Se utiliza las series mensuales de escorrentía observadas y las series mensuales de escorrentía corregidas por la metodología previamente planteada con el objeto de evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en escenario de control. Se construyen proyecciones climáticas utilizando los cambios en los valores medios y la variabilidad de las aportaciones simuladas por los MCR y también utilizando una fórmula climatológica basada en el índice de aridez. Se evalúan las necesidades de gestión en términos de la satisfacción de las demandas de agua para irrigación a través de la comparación entre la disponibilidad de agua en situación actual y la disponibilidad de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Finalmente, mediante el desarrollo de una herramienta de cálculo que facilita el manejo y automatización de una gran cantidad de información compleja obtenida de las simulaciones de los MCR se obtiene un proceso metodológico que evalúa de forma integral el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura a escala de grandes extensiones, y a la vez permite determinar las necesidades de adaptación y gestión en función de las prioridades identificadas. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a methodological contribution for studying the impact of climate change on water use, focusing particularly on agriculture. Taking into account the different nature of the agriculture, this methodology addresses the impacts on rainfed and irrigated agriculture, integrating agricultural and water planning models with climate change simulations scenarios in order to determine impact indicators based on crop productivity and water availability for irrigation, respectively. The methodology incorporates the effect of climate variability on agriculture, assessing adaptation and management needs associated with mean impacts, variability in crop productivity and the effect of hydrologic variability on water availability for irrigation. Considering the vast amount of information provided by the outputs of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations and also its complexity for processing it, a tool has been developed to integrate different climate scenarios, methods and models to address the impact of climate change on agriculture at large scale. Firstly, a hydrological analysis of the climate change scenarios is performed under current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) situation in order to know exactly what the models projections say about the expected impact on the main variables involved in the hydrological cycle. Due to the availability of information for validating the results in current situation, the hydrological analysis is developed in the territorial areas of water planning in Spain, where the values of naturalized runoff have been estimated by the hydrological model SIMPA, which are used as observed data. By working in large-scale studies, the limited availability of data or lack of properly calibrated hydrological model makes difficult to obtain runoff time series. So as, a methodology is proposed to compare different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimize the bias with respect to observed values. Thus, the best alternative is selected in order to obtain bias-corrected monthly time series from the RCM simulations. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from different RCM are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behavior of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index. The results are also compared with the global runoff reference provided by the UNH/GRDC dataset, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Secondly, the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture is assessed considering the combined effect of the risks associated with anomalies given by changes in the mean and variability of crop productivity in the agro-climatic regions of Europe. This procedure allows determining adaptation needs based on the regional impacts that must be addressed with greater urgency in light of the risks and opportunities identified. Statistical models of productivity response are used for this purpose which have been developed and calibrated in previous European study. Thirdly, the impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture is evaluated considering the water availability for irrigation as an indicator of the impact. Given that most studies have focused on assessing water availability in natural regime, the effect of regulation is incorporated in this approach. The analysis is developed in the Spanish territory considering the available information of the observed stream flows and the regulation system. The Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model is used in this study, which allows obtaining the maximum demand that could be supplied under certain conditions (demand seasonal distribution, water supply system management, and reliability criteria) for different policy alternatives. The monthly bias corrected time series obtained by previous methodology are used in order to assess water availability in current situation. Climate change projections are constructed taking into account the variation in mean and coefficient of variation simulated by the RCM. The management needs are determined by the agricultural demands satisfaction through the comparison between water availability under current conditions and under climate change projections. Therefore, the methodology allows evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture to large scale, using a tool that facilitates the process of a large amount of complex information provided by the RCM simulations, in order to determine the adaptation and management needs in accordance with the priorities of the indentified impacts.

Caracterización automatizada de texturas de menas mediante análisis digital de imagen para su aplicación geometalúrgica

La mineralogía de procesos se ha convertido en los últimos años en una herramienta indispensable dentro del ámbito minero-metalúrgico debido fundamentalmente a la emergencia de la Geometalurgia. Esta disciplina en auge, a través de la integración de datos geológicos, mineros y metalúrgicos, proporciona la información necesaria para que el circuito de concentración mineral pueda responder de manera rápida y eficaz a la variabilidad mineralógica inherente a la geología del yacimiento. Para la generación del modelo geometalúrgico, la mineralogía de procesos debe aportar datos cuantitativos sobre los rasgos mineralógicos influyentes en el comportamiento de los minerales y para ello se apoya en el uso de sistemas de análisis mineralógico automatizado. Estos sistemas son capaces de proporcionar gran cantidad de datos mineralógicos de manera rápida y precisa. Sin embargo, cuando se trata de la caracterización de la textura, el mineralogista debe recurrir a descripciones cualitativas basadas en la observación, ya que los sistemas actuales no ofrecen información textural automatizada. Esta tesis doctoral surge precisamente para proporcionar de manera sistemática información textural relevante para los procesos de concentración mineral. La tesis tiene como objetivo principal la identificación y caracterización del tipo de intercrecimiento que un determinado mineral presenta en las partículas minerales, e inicialmente se han tenido en cuenta los siete tipos de intercrecimiento considerados como los más relevantes bajo el punto de vista del comportamiento de las partículas minerales durante flotación, lixiviación y molienda. Para alcanzar este objetivo se ha desarrollado una metodología basada en el diseño y cálculo de una serie de índices numéricos, a los que se ha llamado índices mineralúrgicos, que cumplen una doble función: por un lado, cada índice aporta información relevante para caracterizar los principales rasgos mineralógicos que gobiernan el comportamiento de las partículas minerales a lo largo de los procesos de concentración y por otro lado, estos índices sirven como variables discriminantes para identificar el tipo de intercrecimiento mineral mediante la aplicación de Análisis Discriminante. Dentro del conjunto de índices propuestos en este trabajo, se han considerado algunos índices propuestos por otros autores para su aplicación tanto en el ámbito de la mineralogía como en otros ámbitos de la ciencia de materiales. Se trata del Índice de Contigüidad (Gurland, 1958), Índice de Intercrecimiento (Amstutz y Giger, 1972) e Índice de Coordinación (Jeulin, 1981), adaptados en este caso para el análisis de partículas minerales. El diseño de los índices se ha basado en los principios básicos de la Estereología y el análisis digital de imagen, y su cálculo se ha llevado a cabo aplicando el método de interceptos lineales mediante la programación en MATLAB de varias rutinas. Este método estereológico permite recoger una serie de medidas a partir de las que es posible calcular varios parámetros, tanto estereológicos como geométricos, que han servido de base para calcular los índices mineralúrgicos. Para evaluar la capacidad discriminatoria de los índices mineralúrgicos se han seleccionado 200 casos en los que se puede reconocer de manera clara alguno de los siete tipos de intercrecimiento considerados inicialmente en este trabajo. Para cada uno de estos casos se han calculado los índices mineralúrgicos y se ha aplicado Análisis Discriminante, obteniendo un porcentaje de acierto en la clasificación del 95%. Esta cifra indica que los índices propuestos son discriminadores fiables del tipo de intercrecimiento. Una vez probada la capacidad discriminatoria de los índices, la metodología desarrollada ha sido aplicada para caracterizar una muestra de un concentrado de cobre procedente de la mina Kansanshi (Zambia). Esta caracterización se ha llevado a cabo para obtener la distribución de calcopirita según su tipo de intercrecimiento. La utilidad de esta distribución ha sido analizada bajo diferentes puntos de vista y en todos ellos los índices mineralúrgicos aportan información valiosa para caracterizar el comportamiento mineralúrgico de las partículas minerales. Los resultados derivados tanto del Análisis Discriminante como de la caracterización del concentrado de Kansanshi muestran la fiabilidad, utilidad y versatilidad de la metodología desarrollada, por lo que su integración como herramienta rutinaria en los sistemas actuales de análisis mineralógico pondría a disposición del mineralurgista gran cantidad de información textural complementaria a la información ofrecida por las técnicas actuales de caracterización mineralógica. ABSTRACT Process mineralogy has become in the last decades an essential tool in the mining and metallurgical sphere, especially driven by the emergence of Geometallurgy. This emergent discipline provides required information to efficiently tailor the circuit performance to the mineralogical variability inherent to ore deposits. To contribute to the Geometallurgical model, process mineralogy must provide quantitative data about the main mineralogical features implied in the minerallurgical behaviour of minerals. To address this characterisation, process mineralogy relies on automated systems. These systems are capable of providing a large amount of data quickly and accurately. However, when it comes to the characterisation of texture, mineralogists need to turn to qualitative descriptions based on observation, due to the fact that current systems can not offer quantitative textural information in a routine way. Aiming at the automated characterisation of textural information, this doctoral thesis arises to provide textural information relevant for concentration processes in a systematic way. The main objective of the thesis is the automated identification and characterisation of intergrowth types in mineral particles. Initially, the seven intergrowth types most relevant for flotation, leaching and grinding are considered. To achieve this goal, a methodology has been developed based on the computation of a set of numerical indices, which have been called minerallurgical indices. These indices have been designed with two main purposes: on the one hand, each index provides information to characterise the main mineralogical features which determine particle behaviour during concentration processes and, on the other hand, these indices are used as discriminant variables for identifying the intergrowth type by Discriminant Analysis. Along with the indices developed in this work, three indices proposed by other authors belonging to different fields of materials science have been also considered after being adapted to the analysis of mineral particles. These indices are Contiguity Index (Gurland, 1958), Intergrowth Index (Amstutz and Giger, 1972) and Coordination Index (Jeulin, 1981). The design of minerallurgical indices is based on the fundamental principles of Stereology and Digital Image Analysis. Their computation has been carried out using the linear intercepts method, implemented by means of MATLAB programming. This stereological method provides a set of measurements to obtain several parameters, both stereological and geometric. Based on these parameters, minerallurgical indices have been computed. For the assessment of the discriminant capacity of the developed indices, 200 cases have been selected according to their internal structure, so that one of the seven intergrowth types initially considered in this work can be easily recognised in any of their constituents. Minerallurgical indices have been computed for each case and used as discriminant variables. After applying discriminant analysis, 95% of the cases were correctly classified. This result shows that the proposed indices are reliable identifiers of intergrowth type. Once the discriminant power of the indices has been assessed, the developed methodology has been applied to characterise a copper concentrate sample from the Kansanshi copper mine (Zambia). This characterisation has been carried out to quantify the distribution of chalcopyrite with respect to intergrowth types. Different examples of the application of this distribution have been given to test the usefulness of the method. In all of them, the proposed indices provide valuable information to characterise the minerallurgical behaviour of mineral particles. Results derived from both Discriminant Analysis and the characterisation of the Kansanshi concentrate show the reliability, usefulness and versatility of the developed methodology. Therefore, its integration as a routine tool in current systems of automated mineralogical analysis should make available for minerallurgists a great deal of complementary information to treat the ore more efficiently.

Aplicación de distintas metodologías a la monitorización de la humedad del suelo y al cálculo del balance hídrico diario

Dada la importancia de conocer la humedad del suelo de forma precisa y en tiempo real, se ha realizado este trabajo de investigación cuyo objetivo principal ha sido seleccionar un Balance Hídrico del Suelo (BHS) diario y validar sus estimaciones de humedad del suelo frente a medidas obtenidas “in situ”, aplicándolo a tres emplazamientos seleccionados en la zona centro con características edáficas y climáticas diferentes, y de este modo estimar con cierta precisión la humedad del suelo como Agua Disponible (AD) para las plantas y a su vez permitir la realización de estudios climáticos. Los observatorios meteorológicos seleccionados fueron: Guadalajara/El Serranillo en la zona aluvial del río Henares; Colmenar Viejo/Base Famet en la rampa sur del Guadarrama sobre rocas metamórficas; y Radiosondeo/Madrid(Barajas) en arenas arcósicas de grano grueso. Se realizó una caracterización morfológica y un estudio de las propiedades físicas, químicas e hidrofísicas de los suelos en cada emplazamiento. El suelo de Guadalajara, Xerorthent Típico presenta una secuencia genética de horizontes (Ap-AC-C1-C2) siendo su clase textural entre franco-arenosa a franca, con menos del 2% de elementos gruesos, presencia de caliza a lo largo de todo el perfil, destacando la homogeneidad en vertical y horizontal de sus propiedades. El suelo de Colmenar, Xerorthent Dystrico, presenta una secuencia genética de horizontes (A-C-C/R) apareciendo el horizonte C/R entre 20-30 cm; y la roca aproximadamente a unos 30 cm; destacando en este perfil su acidez y el alto contenido de elementos gruesos. El suelo de Radiosondeo, Haploxeralf Típico, presenta la secuencia normal de horizontes de los alfisoles (A-Bt1-Bt2-C/Bt); destacando su heterogeneidad principalmente en el plano horizontal, con presencia del Bt a diferentes profundidades en un corto espacio longitudinal. En una primera fase de experimentación (2007-2008) se seleccionaron BHS diarios que sólo utilizaban como datos de entrada la información de variables meteorológicas y el valor del Agua Disponible Total (ADT) para cada tipo de suelo y profundidad. Se probaron BHS diarios con agotamiento exponencial y directo de la reserva, utilizando la evapotranspiración de referencia de Penman-Monteith recomendada por FAO. Al mismo tiempo que se disponía de los datos estimados de humedad de suelo mediante diferentes BHS diarios en los tres emplazamientos, también se realizó una monitorización de la humedad del suelo “in situ” mediante el método gravimétrico, con adaptación de dicha metodología a la problemática de cada suelo, para determinar en cada fecha tanto la humedad del suelo como su contenido de AD para una profundidad de 0 a 30 cm. Se tomaron en cada fecha de muestreo 5 muestras para la profundidad 0- 10 cm, otras cinco para 10-20 cm y otras cinco para 20-30 cm, realizándose el correspondiente tratamiento estadístico de los datos. El ADT se calculó a partir de los datos de capacidad de campo y punto de marchitez obtenidos en laboratorio con membrana de Richards. Los resultados de esta primera fase permitieron conocer que el BHS exponencial diario era el que mejor estimaba el AD en Guadalajara considerando la capacidad de campo a una presión de 33 kPa, mientras que en Colmenar se debían considerar para un mejor ajuste, 10 kPa en lugar de 33 kPa. En el observatorio de Radiosondeo debido a que en cada fecha de muestreo la profundidad en la que aparecía el horizonte Bt era diferente, no se pudo demostrar si el BHS exponencial diario tenía un buen comportamiento. En una segunda fase de experimentación (2009-2012) y con el objeto de aminorar los problemas encontrados en Radiosondeo para la medida de humedad del suelo por el método gravimétrico, se procedió a la instalación y utilización de diferentes sensores de medida de humedad de suelo en el mismo observatorio: TDR (time domain reflectometry - TRIME T3 de IMKO); FDR capacitivo (frecuency domain reflectometry - ECH2O EC-20 de DECAGON) y otros. Esta segunda fase de experimentación tuvo una duración de 4 años y se compararon las medidas de humedad de suelo obtenidas a partir de los sensores con las estimadas del BHS exponencial hasta una profundidad de 0 a 85 cm. En laboratorio se realizaron calibraciones específicas de los sensores TDR y FDR para cada uno de los horizontes más diferenciados del Haploxeralf Típico, utilizando diferentes tipos de regresión. Los valores de humedad de suelo con el equipo TDR, corregidos mediante la calibración específica de laboratorio, fueron los que más se ajustaron a las medidas realizadas por método gravimétrico “in situ”, por lo que se utilizó el TDR para las comparaciones con los valores obtenidos del BHS exponencial diario durante los cuatro años de esta segunda fase experimental. Se realizaron diferentes estimaciones del ADT, partiendo de datos de laboratorio y/o de datos procedentes de humedad de los sensores en campo. Los resultados mostraron de nuevo la conveniencia de utilizar el BHS exponencial diario, pero en este caso, con la estimación del ADT realizada a partir de las gráficas de los sensores. Mediante la utilización de los datos de humedad del BHS exponencial diario se han realizado comparaciones con el mismo tipo de balance pero utilizando un periodo semanal o mensual en lugar de diario, para conocer las diferencias. Los valores obtenidos con periodicidad mensual han dado valores de AD inferiores a los balances calculados semanalmente o diariamente. Por último se ha comprobado que los resultados de un BHS exponencial diario pueden complementar la información que se obtiene del Índice de Precipitación Estandarizado (SPI) y pueden mejorar el estudio de la sequía agrícola. ABSTRACT Due to the importance of a better knowledge of soil water at real time and in a more precisely way, this research work has being carried out with the main objective of selecting a daily Soil Water Balance (SWB) to estimate soil water content, and validate it in comparison to “in situ” measurements. Three locations, differing in soil and climate characteristics, were selected in central Spain in order to estimate with certain acuity soil water as plant-Available Water (AW) and to serve as a tool for the climatic studies. The selected places near meteorology stations were: Guadalajara/El Serranillo an alluvium of the Henares watershed; Colmenar Viejo/Base Famet, in the south raised area of the Guadarrama river basin, over metamorphic rocks; and Radiosondeo/Madrid (Barajas) in coarse arkosic sandstone. Morphology characterization, physical, chemical and hydrologic soil properties were studied in each area. In Guadalajara the soil is a Typic Xerorthent with a (Ap-AC-C1- C2) genetic horizon sequence, loam-sandy to loam textural class, less than 2% of rock fragments, presence of equivalent CaCO3 through the whole profile, outstanding the vertical and horizontal homogeneity of the properties. In Colmenar the soil is represented by a Dystric Xerorthent with a (A-C-C/R) genetic horizon sequence, the C/R is 20-30 cm deep where rock outcrops are approximately at 30 cm; a characteristic feature of this profile is its high acidity and high rock fragments content. In Radiosondeo the soil is represented by a Typic Haploxeralf, with the usual alfisol genetic horizon sequence (A-Bt1-Bt2-C/Bt); outstanding its horizontal heterogeneity, “the variability of the Bt (clay enriched horizon) depth in short distances”. In a first experimental stage (2007-2008), the daily SWB chosen was that which only uses as input data the information from the meteorology variables and plant-Total Available Water (TAW) for each soil type and depth. Different daily SWB (with exponential or direct plant-Available Water depletion) were applied, using the Penman- Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ETo) recommended by FAO. At the same time as soil water content was estimated from the different daily SWB at the three locations, also soil water content was being monitored by “in situ” gravimetric methodology, adapting it to each soil characteristic, to determine every time soil water content and AW to a depth of 0 to 30 cm. In each sampling date, 5 samples for each depth were taken: 0-10 cm; 10-20 cm and 20-30 cm and the data were submitted to the corresponding statistical analysis. The TAW was calculated based on field capacity (FC) and permanent wilting point (PWP) data obtained from laboratory by the Richards pressure plate. Results from this first experimental stage show that the daily exponential SWB was the one which better estimated the AW in Guadalajara considering field capacity at -33 kPa, though in Colmenar, field capacity at -10 kPa must be considered instead of -33 kPa for a better estimation. In Radiosondeo due to the fact that the Bt horizon depth varied in different sampling dates, it could not be established if the daily exponential SWB had a good performance. In a second experimental stage (20019-2012) and with the objective of minimizing the problems encountered in Radiosondeo for measuring “in situ” soil water content by the gravimetric method, the installation of different sensors for measuring soil water content were established and used in the same field location: TDR (time domain reflectometry - TRIME T3 from IMKO), capacitance FDR (frecuency domain reflectometry - ECH2O EC-20 from DECAGON) and others. This second experimental stage lasted 4 years in order to compare the soil water measures from the sensors with the estimations by the exponential SWB form 0 to 85 cm soil depths. At laboratory, specific calibrations for TDR and FDR sensors of the Typic Haploxeralf more differentiated horizons were done using different types of regressions. The results showed that soil water data obtained by the TDR equipment, corrected by the specific laboratory calibration, best fitted to “in situ” gravimetric soil water measures. In this way TDR was used for comparing to the daily exponential SWB during the four years of this second experimentation stage. Various estimations for obtaining TAW were tested; based on laboratory data – and/or on the data obtained of the soil water content field sensors. Results confirmed again, the convenience of using the daily exponential SWB, though in this case, with the TAW obtained from the field sensors graphics. Soil water estimated by exponential SWB on daily basis was compared to weekly and monthly periods, in order to know their reliability. The results obtained for a monthly period gave less AW than the ones obtained in a weekly or daily period. Finally it has been proved that the results obtained from the exponential SWB in a daily bases can be used as a useful tool in order to give complementary information to the SPI (Precipitation Standardized Index) and to help in agricultural drought studies.

Runup variability due to time dependence and stochasticity in the beach profiles: two extreme cases of the Spanish coast

Equations for extreme runup worked out from several experimental studies are compared. Infragraviatory oscillations dominate the swash in a dissipative state but not in intermediate - reflective states. Therefore two kinds of equation depending on either significant wave height, H-0, or the Iribarren number, xi(0), should be used. Through a sand bed physical model with a uniform sand bed slope, equations are proposed for both beach states, and results are compared with precedent field and physical model experiments. Once the equations are chosen, the time-longshore variability in a medium - long term time scale of the foreshore slope is evaluated in two extreme cases relating to the Spanish coast. The Salinas beach on the North coast (Bay of Biscay) displayed a permanent dissipative beach state with small variations in the beach foreshore slope both along the shore and in time, so foreshore slope deviations in a medium-long term period were irrelevant and extreme runup is predicted with the wave height worked out from the design return period. Peniscola beach on the East coast (Mediterranean sea) displayed an intermediate state. If only time variations are analysed, variations in determining extreme runup are irrelevant. In contrast, significant differences were found when the longshore variations were studied in this Mediterranean beach.

Variability of Arundo donax growth in dry-farming as a function of soil properties

Arundo donax L., commonly known as giant reed or arundo, is a perennial rhizomatous grass that has been studied since the decade of 1980 for bioenergy. In the Mediterranean region -characterised by dry and hot summers- arundo is usually grown with the support of irrigation. However, there is evidence that this plant species can tolerate dry-farming conditions once the crop is fully established. In this work the variation observed in plant growth of a 5-year-old arundo crop when the management changed from irrigated to dry-farming, is assessed. The hypothesis underlying this work was that punctual variations of soil properties might be responsible for the differences observed in plant growth

El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula

El Niño phenomenon is the leading mode of sea surface temperature interannual variability. It can affect weather patterns worldwide and therefore crop production. Crop models are useful tools for impact and predictability applications, allowing to obtain long time series of potential and attainable crop yield, unlike to available time series of observed crop yield for many countries. Using this tool, crop yield variability in a location of Iberia Peninsula (IP) has been previously studied, finding predictability from Pacific El Niño conditions. Nevertheless, the work has not been done for an extended area. The present work carries out an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The potential usefulness of this study is to apply the relationships found to improving crop forecasting in IP.

A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?

We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than “business-as-usual” scenarios.

Investigation on Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and psycho-social-affective adjustment in Italian women with ovarian cancer

INTRODUZIONE: L’integrazione mente-corpo applicata ad un ambito patologico predominante in questi tempi, come il cancro, è il nucleo di questa tesi. Il background teorico entro cui è inserita, è quello della Psiconeuroendocrinoimmunologia (Bottaccioli, 1995) e Psico-Oncologia. Sono state identificate, nella letteratura scientifica, le connessioni tra stati psicologici (mente) e condizioni fisiologiche (corpo). Le variabili emerse come potenzialmente protettive in pazienti che si trovano ad affrontare il cancro sono: il supporto sociale, l’immagine corporea, il coping e la Qualità della Vita, insieme all’indice fisiologico Heart Rate Variability (HRV; Shaffer & Venner, 2013). Il potenziale meccanismo della connessione tra queste variabili potrebbe essere spiegato dall’azione del Nervo Vago, come esposto nella Teoria Polivagale di Stephen Porges (2007; 2009). OBIETTIVI: Gli obiettivi principali di questo studio sono: 1. Valutare l’adattamento psicologico alla patologia in termini di supporto sociale percepito, immagine corporea, coping prevalente e qualità della vita in donne con cancro ovarico; 2. Valutare i valori di base HRV in queste donne; 3. Osservare se livelli più elevati di HRV sono associati ad un migliore adattamento psicologico alla patologia; 4. Osservare se una peggiore percezione dell’immagine corporea e l’utilizzo di strategie di coping disadattive sono associate ad una Qualità della Vita più scarsa. METODO: 38 donne affette da cancro ovarico, al momento della valutazione libere da patologia, sono state reclutate presso la clinica oncologica del reparto di Ginecologia dell’Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Italia. Ad ogni partecipante è stato chiesto di compilare una batteria di test composta da: MSPSS, per la valutazione del supporto sociale percepito; DAS-59, per la valutazione dell’immagine corporea; MAC, per la valutazione delle strategie di coping prevalenti utilizzate verso il cancro; EORTC-QLQ30, per la valutazione della Qualità della Vita. Per ogni partecipante è stato registrato HRV di base utilizzando lo strumento emWave (HeartMath). RISULTATI PRINCIPALI: Rispondendo agli obiettivi 1 e 2, in queste donne si è rilevato una alto tasso di supporto sociale percepito, in particolare ricevuto dalla persona di riferimento. L’area rivelatasi più critica nel supporto sociale è quella degli amici. Per quanto riguarda l’immagine corporea, la porzione di campione dai 30 ai 61 anni, ha delle preoccupazioni globali legate all’immagine corporea paragonabili ai dati provenienti dalla popolazione generale con preoccupazioni riguardo l’aspetto corporeo. Invece, nella porzione di campione dai 61 anni in su, il pattern di disagio verso l’aspetto fisico sembra decisamente peggiorare. Inoltre, in questo campione, si è rilevato un disagio globale verso l’immagine corporea significativamente più alto rispetto ai valori normativi presenti in letteratura riferiti a donne con cancro al seno con o senza mastectomia (rispettivamente t(94)= -4.78; p<0.000001; t(110)= -6.81;p<0.000001). La strategia di coping più utilizzata da queste donne è lo spirito combattivo, seguito dal fatalismo. Questo campione riporta, inoltre, una Qualità della Vita complessivamente soddisfacente, con un buon livello di funzionamento sociale. L’area di funzionalità più critica risulta essere il funzionamento emotivo. Considerando i sintomi prevalenti, i più riferiti sono affaticamento, disturbi del sonno e dolore. Per definire, invece, il pattern HRV, sono stati confrontati i dati del campione con quelli presenti in letteratura, riguardanti donne con cancro ovarico. Il campione valutato in questo studio, ha un HRV SDNN (Me=28.2ms) significativamente più alto dell’altro gruppo. Tuttavia, confrontando il valore medio di questo campione con i dati normativi sulla popolazione sana (Me=50ms), i nostri valori risultano drasticamente più bassi. In ultimo, donne che hanno ricevuto diagnosi di cancro ovarico in età fertile, sembrano avere maggiore HRV, migliore funzionamento emotivo e minore sintomatologia rispetto alle donne che hanno ricevuto diagnosi non in età fertile. Focalizzando l’attenzione sulla ricerca di relazioni significative tra le variabili in esame (obiettivo 3 e 4) sono state trovate numerose correlazioni significative tra: l’età e HRV, supporto percepito , Qualità della Vita; Qualità della Vita e immagine corporea, supporto sociale, strategie di coping; strategie di coping e immagine corporea, supporto sociale; immagine corporea e supporto sociale; HRV e supporto sociale, Qualità della Vita. Per verificare la possibile connessione causale tra le variabili considerate, sono state applicate regressioni lineari semplici e multiple per verificare la bontà del modello teorico. Si è rilevato che HRV è significativamente positivamente influenzata dal supporto percepito dalla figura di riferimento, dal funzionamento di ruolo, dall’immagine corporea totale. Invece risulta negativamente influenzata dal supporto percepito dagli amici e dall’uso di strategie di coping evitanti . La qualità della vita è positivamente influenzata da: l’immagine corporea globale e l’utilizzo del fatalismo come strategia di coping prevalente. Il funzionamento emotivo è influenzato dal supporto percepito dalla figura di riferimento e dal fatalismo. DISCUSSIONI E CONCLUSIONI: Il campione Italiano valutato, sembra essere a metà strada nell’adattamento dello stato psicologico e dell’equilibrio neurovegetativo al cancro. Sicuramente queste donne vivono una vita accettabile, in quanto sopravvissute al cancro, ma sembra anche che portino con sé preoccupazioni e difficoltà, in particolare legate all’accettazione della loro condizione di sopravvissute. Infatti, il migliore adattamento si riscontra nelle donne che hanno avuto peggiori condizioni in partenza: stadio del cancro avanzato, più giovani, con diagnosi ricevuta in età fertile. Pertanto, è possibile suggerire che queste condizioni critiche forzino queste donne ad affrontare apertamente il cancro e la loro situazione di sopravvissute al cancro, portandole ad “andare avanti” piuttosto che “tornare indietro”. Facendo riferimento alle connessioni tra variabili psicologiche e fisiologiche in queste donne, si è evidenziato che HRV è influenzata dalla presenza di figure significative ma, in particolare, è presumibile che sia influenzata da un’appropriata condivisione emotiva con queste figure. Si è anche evidenziato che poter continuare ad essere efficaci nel proprio contesto personale si riflette in un maggiore HRV, probabilmente in quanto permette di preservare il senso di sé, riducendo in questo modo lo stress derivante dall’esperienza cancro. Pertanto, HRV in queste donne risulta associato con un migliore adattamento psicologico. Inoltre, si è evidenziato che in queste donne la Qualità della Vita è profondamente influenzata dalla percezione dell’immagine corporea. Si tratta di un aspetto innovativo che è stato rilevato in questo campione e che, invece, nei precedenti studi non è stato indagato. In ultimo, la strategia di coping fatalismo sembra essere protettiva e sembra facilitare il processo di accettazione del cancro. Si spera sinceramente che le ricerche future possano superare i limiti del presente studio, come la scarsa numerosità e l’uso di strumenti di valutazione che, per alcuni aspetti come la scala Evitamento nel MAC, non centrano totalmente il target di indagine. Le traiettorie future di questo studio sono: aumentare il numero di osservazioni, reclutando donne in diversi centri specialistici in diverse zone d’Italia; utilizzare strumenti più specifici per valutare i costrutti in esame; valutare se un intervento di supporto centrato sul miglioramento di HRV (come HRV Biofeedback) può avere una ricaduta positiva sull’adattamento emotivo e la Qualità della Vita.

Morphological variability of Globorotalia menardii in DSDP Sites 68-502 and 68-503

Variability in the test of Globorotalia menardii during the past 8 million years has been investigated at DSDP Site 502A (Caribbean Sea) and DSDP Site 503A (Eastern Equatorial Pacific). Measurements were made of spire height (delta x), maximum diameter (delta y), the tangent angles of the upper and lower peripheral keels (phi 1, phi 2, respectively), the number of chambers in the final whorl, and the area of the silhouette in keel view. Four morphotypes alpha, beta, gamma, and delta were distinguished. Morphotype alpha was found in strata ranging in age from the Late Miocene through the Holocene. It shows a continuous increase in delta x and delta y until the Late Pleistocene. During and after the final closure of the ancient Central American Seaway (between 2.4 Ma and 1.8 Ma) there was a rapid increase in the area of the test in keel view. At the Caribbean Sea site, morphotype beta evolved during the past 0.22 Ma. It is less inflated than alpha and has a more delicate test. In the morphospace of delta x vs. delta y, morphotypes alpha and beta can be distinguished by a separation line delta y = 3.2 * delta x - 160 (delta x and delta y in µm). Plots of morphotype alpha are below that line, those of beta are above it. Morphotype alpha is taken to be Globorotalia menardii menardii Parker, Jones & Brady (1865) and includes G. menardii 'A' Bolli (1970). Morphotype beta is identified as G. menardii cultrata (d'Orbigny). Morphotypes gamma and delta are extinct Upper Miocene to Pliocene forms which evolved from morphotype alpha. They have a narrower phi 1 angle and more chambers (>=7) than morphotype alpha commonly with 5 to 6 chambers (7 in transitional forms). In contemporaneous samples morphotype delta can be distinguished from gamma by a smaller value of phi 1 and 8 or more chambers in the final whorl. Morphotype gamma is taken to be G. limbata (Fornasini, 1902) and includes the junior synonym G. menardii 'B' Bolli (1970). Morphotype delta is G. multicamerata Cushman & Jarvis (1930). With the exception of the Late Pleistocene development of G. menardii cultrataonly in the Caribbean the morphological changes of G. menardii at DSDP Sites 502A and 503A are similar. The development from the ancestral G. menardii menardii of the G. limbata - G. multicamerata lineage during the Pliocene and of G. menardii cultrata during the Late Pleistocene suggests responses at the two sites to a changing palaeoceanography during and after the formation of the Isthmus of Panama.

The comprehensive osteoarthritis test: a simple index for measurement of treatment effects in clinical trials

Objective. To assess the measurement properties of a simple index of symptom severity in osteoarthritis (OA) of the hips and knees. Methods. Both the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and the proposed new Comprehensive Osteoarthritis Test (COAT) instrument were completed weekly by 125 subjects in the context of a randomized, 12-week, 3 parallel-arm clinical trial. The reliabilities of the various scales were assessed on a weekly basis by use of Cronbach's alpha coefficients. The validity of the COAT total scale was assessed by correlation with the WOMAC total scale on a weekly basis with correlation coefficients, and in terms of the correlations between subject-level intercepts and slopes over time. The relative responsiveness of the WOMAC and COAT total scales was assessed using a multilevel (longitudinal) multivariate (WOMAC, COAT) linear model. Results. The WOMAC and COAT total scales were highly reliable (mean over weeks: WOMAC alpha = 0.98; COAT alpha = 0.97). The correlations between the WOMAC and COAT scales were very high (mean over weeks = 0.92; subject-level intercepts = 0.91, slopes = 0.88). The COAT total scale was significantly more responsive than the WOMAC total scale in the active treatment (34.8% improvement vs 26.8%; p = 0.002). Conclusion. The COAT total scale is simple to administer, reliable, valid, and responsive to treatment effects.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Validating the functional capacity index: A comparison of predicted versus observed total body scores

Background: The Functional Capacity Index (FCI) was designed to predict physical function 12 months after injury. We report a validation study of the FCI. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry who consented to the prospective 12-month telephone-administered follow-up study. FCI scores measured at 12 months were compared with those originally predicted. Results: Complete Abbreviated Injury Scale score information was available for 617 individuals, of whom 587 (95%) could be assigned at least one FCI score (range, 1-17). Agreement between the largest predicted FCI and observed FCI score was poor (kappa = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.10) and explained only 1% of the variability in observed FCI. Using an encompassing model that included all FCI assignments, agreement remained poor (kappa = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, -0.02-0.12), and the model explained only 9% of the variability in observed FCI. Conclusion: The predicted functional capacity poorly agrees with actual functional outcomes. Further research should consider including other (noninjury) explanatory factors in predicting FCI at 12 months.