Biodiversity and global change in Mediterranean benthic communities: perspectives over large spatial and long temporal scales

Many terrestrial and marine systems are experiencing accelerating decline due to the effects of global change. This situation has raised concern about the consequences of biodiversity losses for ecosystem function, ecosystem service provision, and human well-being. Coastal marine habitats are a main focus of attention because they harbour a high biological diversity, are among the most productive systems of the world and present high anthropogenic interaction levels. The accelerating degradation of many terrestrial and marine systems highlights the urgent need to evaluate the consequence of biodiversity loss. Because marine biodiversity is a dynamic entity and this study was interested global change impacts, this study focused on benthic biodiversity trends over large spatial and long temporal scales. The main aim of this project was to investigate the current extent of biodiversity of the high diverse benthic coralligenous community in the Mediterranean Sea, detect its changes, and predict its future changes over broad spatial and long temporal scales. These marine communities are characterized by structural species with low growth rates and long life spans; therefore they are considered particularly sensitive to disturbances. For this purpose, this project analyzed permanent photographic plots over time at four locations in the NW Mediterranean Sea. The spatial scale of this study provided information on the level of species similarity between these locations, thus offering a solid background on the amount of large scale variability in coralligenous communities; whereas the temporal scale was fundamental to determine the natural variability in order to discriminate between changes observed due to natural factors and those related to the impact of disturbances (e.g. mass mortality events related to positive thermal temperatures, extreme catastrophic events). This study directly addressed the challenging task of analyzing quantitative biodiversity data of these high diverse marine benthic communities. Overall, the scientific knowledge gained with this research project will improve our understanding in the function of marine ecosystems and their trajectories related to global change.

Home visitors and child health in England: advances and challenges

There is increasing interest in the early years as a focus for reducing health inequalities as well as one that is important for the children themselves. This paper describes the introduction in England of Sure Start Local Programmes, which included home visiting within a community development approach, and an intensive home visiting programme, the Nurse-Family partnership, for disadvantaged teenage mothers. It reflects on changes and challenges in service provision to mothers and their pre-school children in England, explaining that a long tradition of home visiting was, paradoxically, reduced as attention focused on the newer initiatives. This is now being addressed, with attention to a range of evidence based programmes and a specific focus on heath visitor provision.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Financing local development: Quasi-experimental evidence from municipalities in Brazil, 1980-1991

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of additional unrestrictedgrant financing on local public spending, public service provision, schooling, literacy, andincome at the community (municipio) level in Brazil. Additional transfers increased local publicspending per capita by about 20% with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or otherrevenue sources. The additional local spending increased schooling per capita by about 7% andliteracy rates by about 4 percentage points. The implied marginal cost of schooling -accountingfor corruption and other leakages- amounts to about US$ 126, which turns out to be similar tothe average cost of schooling in Brazil in the early 1980s. In line with the effect on human capital,the poverty rate was reduced by about 4 percentage points, while income per capita gains werepositive but not statistically significant. Results also suggest that additional public spending hadstronger effects on schooling and literacy in less developed parts of Brazil, while poverty reductionwas evenly spread across the country.

Identifying the gap between need and intervention for alcohol use disorders in Europe.

AIMS: A literature review of existing research on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and availability of alcohol interventions in Europe was conducted. The review also explored what is known about the gap between need and provision of alcohol interventions in Europe. METHODS: The review search strategy included: (i) descriptive studies of alcohol intervention systems in Europe; (ii) studies of alcohol service provision in Europe; and (iii) studies of prevalence of AUD and alcohol needs assessment in Europe. RESULTS: Europe has a relatively high level of alcohol consumption and the resulting disabilities are the highest in the world. Most research on implementation of alcohol interventions in Europe has been restricted to screening and brief interventions. Alcohol needs assessment methodology has been developed but has not been applied in comparative studies across countries in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: This review points to key gaps in knowledge related to alcohol interventions in Europe. There is a lack of comparative data on variations in alcohol treatment systems across European countries and there is also a lack of comparative data on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders across European countries and the relative gap between need and access to treatment. The forthcoming Alcohol Measures for Public Health Research Alliance (AMPHORA) research project work package on 'Early identification and treatment' aims to address these gaps.

Evolutionary branching in deme-structured populations.

Adaptive dynamics shows that a continuous trait under frequency dependent selection may first converge to a singular point followed by spontaneous transition from a unimodal trait distribution into a bimodal one, which is called "evolutionary branching". Here, we study evolutionary branching in a deme-structured population by constructing a quantitative genetic model for the trait variance dynamics, which allows us to obtain an analytic condition for evolutionary branching. This is first shown to agree with previous conditions for branching expressed in terms of relatedness between interacting individuals within demes and obtained from mutant-resident systems. We then show this branching condition can be markedly simplified when the evolving trait affect fecundity and/or survival, as opposed to affecting population structure, which would occur in the case of the evolution of dispersal. As an application of our model, we evaluate the threshold migration rate below which evolutionary branching cannot occur in a pairwise interaction game. This agrees very well with the individual-based simulation results.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Mental Health, Report to the Board of Corrections, 2006

This report goes beyond mere documentation of the problem. It describes how the Iowa Department of Corrections is addressing mental health issues among the offender population through the provision of treatment. All data was obtained from Iowa Corrections Offender Network (ICON) information residing in the Iowa Justice Data Warehouse, and the ICON-Medical module. 1

Substance Abuse, Report to the Board of Corrections, 2006

This report, however, goes beyond documentation of the problem. It describes how the Iowa Department of Corrections is addressing substance abuse among the offender population through the provision of treatment, and monitoring for current drug and alcohol usage. All information was obtained from the Iowa Corrections Offender Network (ICON) with many of the reports obtained via the Iowa Justice Data Warehouse.

Chicago to Iowa City Passenger Rail Project Financial Plan, September 2009

The Chicago to Iowa City Intercity Passenger Rail Program (Program) is a joint undertaking of the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) and the Illinois Department of Transportation (Illinois DOT). The purpose of the Program is to reestablish passenger rail services from Chicago to Iowa City, independently and in concert with the MWRRI (Midwest Regional Rail Initiative). The Chicago to Iowa City Corridor is one part of the vision established by the MWRRI to expand existing and develop new regional passenger rail service to meet existing and future travel demands in the Midwest. This project will expand and create a rail transportation alternative to supplant private automobile, bus, and air travel between Chicago and Iowa City, and intermediate points, and to create new transportation opportunity and capability for people who cannot meet their transportation needs with private automobile, bus and air modes.

Solvent vapours in incubators: a source of exposure among neonates?

Hygiene practices in neonatal units require the use of disinfecting solutions containing ethanol or isopropanol. Newly disinfected hands or soaked swabs introduced inside the incubators may emit vapours leading to alcohol exposures to the neonates. Alcohol emissions from hands and other occasional sources (e.g. soaked disinfecting swabs) lead to measurable levels of vapours inside incubators. Average isopropanol and ethanol concentrations ranging from 33.1 to 171.4 mg/m(3) (13.8 to 71.4 ppm) and from 23.5 to more than 146 mg/m3 (9.8 to > 6 ppm) respectively were measured inside occupied incubators (n = 11, measurement time about 230 min) in a neonatal unit of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois in Lausanne during regular activity. Exposure concentrations in a wide range of possible situations were then investigated by modeling using the one-box dispersion model. Theoretical modeling suggested typical isopropanol peaks and average concentrations ranging between 10(2) and 10(3) mg/m(3) (4.10(1) to 4.10(2)ppm), and 10(1) to 10(2) mg/m(3) (4 to 4.10(1) ppm), respectively. Based on our results we suggest several preventive measures to reduce the neonates' exposures to solvent vapours.

Simulations in Evolution. III. Randomness as a Generator of Opportunities.

In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms which propel biological evolution. Our previous reports presented a histogram model to simulate the evolution of populations of individuals classified into bins according to an unspecified, quantifiable phenotypic character, and whose number in each bin changed generation after generation under the influence of fitness, while the total population was maintained constant. The histogram model also allowed Shannon entropy (SE) to be monitored continuously as the information content of the total population decreased or increased. Here, a simple Perl (Practical Extraction and Reporting Language) application was developed to carry out these computations, with the critical feature of an added random factor in the percent of individuals whose offspring moved to a vicinal bin. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the random factor mimicking variation increased considerably the range of values covered by Shannon entropy, especially when the percentage of changed offspring was high. This increase in information content is interpreted as facilitated adaptability of the population.

Tendencias demográficas recientes en Cataluña y su repercusión territorial

En los años transcurridos desde 1975, la población de Cataluña ha experimentado cambios drásticos en las tendencias demográficas, a saber: el hundimiento de 10s niveles de nupcialidad y natalidad y la inversión de la relación migratoria con el resto de España. Dichas transformaciones no se han producido de forma homopénea, dándose una notable variedad de shtuaciones a nivel comarcal y local. El presente trabajo se propone, en primer lugar, analizar la evolución de 10s hechos demográficos en Cataluña de 1975 a 1982, intentando poner de manifiesto 10s mecanismos que han provocado el desplome del que fue esplendoroso crecimiento poblacional; en segundo lugar, estudiar la incidencia de dicha evolución en la distribución territorial de la población; y, finalmente, reflexionar sobre las perspectivas de evolución que ofrece la situación actual.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience.

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide this service using ensembles of forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used their results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest control services. We assessed how potential richness of pest control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that potential richness of pest control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries that had economies highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries had their economies less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest control providers