Macroeconomic policy in an output-expenditure model

This paper proposes an alternative framework for examining the international macroeconomic impact of domestic monetary and fiscal policies and focuses on the distinction between national spending and national production and the reactive behavior of foreign investors to changing external account balances. It demonstrates that under a floating exchange rate regime, monetary and fiscal policies can affect aggregate expenditure and output quite differently, with important implications for the behavior of the exchange rate, the current account balance, and national income in the short run, as well as the economy's price level in the long run. In particular, this paper predicts that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies tend to depreciate the currency and only temporarily raise gross domestic product and the current account surplus, although permanently raise the domestic price level. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany.

A phylogeny for the genus Isoodon and a range extension for I-obesulus peninsulae based on mtDNA control region and morphology

Short-nosed bandicoots, Isoodon, have undergone marked range contractions since European colonisation of Australia and are currently divided into many subspecies, the validity of which is debated. Discriminant function analysis of morphology and a phylogeny of Isoodon based on mtDNA control region sequences indicate a clear split between two of the three recognised species, I. macrourus and I. obesulus/auratus. However, while all previously recognised taxa within the I. obesulus/auratus group are morphologically distinct, I. auratus and I. obesulus are not phylogenetically distinct for mtDNA. The genetic divergence between I. obesulus and I. auratus (2.6%) is similar to that found among geographic isolates of the former (I. o. obesulus and I. o. peninsulae: 2.7%). Further, the divergence between geographically close populations of two different species (I. o. obesulus from Western Australia and I. a. barrowensis: 1.2%) is smaller than that among subspecies within I. auratus (I. a. barrowensis and I. auratus from northern Western Australia: 1.7%). A newly discovered population of Isoodon in the Lamb Range, far north Queensland, sympatric with a population of I. m. torosus, is shown to represent a range extension of I. o. peninsulae (350 km). It seems plausible that what is currently considered as two species, I. obesulus and I. auratus, was once one continuous species now represented by isolated populations that have diverged morphologically as a consequence of adaptation to the diverse environments that occur throughout their range. The taxonomy of these populations is discussed in relation to their morphological distinctiveness and genetic similarity.

Stability of nest range, home range and movement of the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica) following moderate-intensity fire in a tropical woodland, north-eastern Queensland

Nest use, home-range characteristics and nightly movements by the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica) were examined before and after a low- to moderate-intensity fire in sclerophyll woodland in north-eastern Australia using radio-telemetry. In all, 23 animals were radio-tracked at three-month intervals between February 1995 and May 1996. During November 1995 a low- intensity experimental fire burned the entire home range of most animals. The northern bettong appeared fairly catholic in choice of nest site, with a variety of nest locations and nesting materials used. Prior to the fire, nests were generally located in areas of dense cover, such as the skirts of grass trees (46%) or grass close to a log (29%). After fire removed most ground cover in the nesting areas of most animals, bettongs used remaining shelter such as boulder piles (45%), recently fallen trees (8%) and patches of unburnt vegetation (21%). Nest areas (10.1 ha) of males were significantly larger than those of females (5.4 ha). Home ranges of both sexes were large (59 ha) and most ranges lacked distinct core areas, suggesting that bettongs used all parts of their home ranges equally. High mean rates of nightly movement by the northern bettong indicated that large distances were moved within home ranges during nightly foraging. No significant fire-related changes were detected in home-range size, home-range location, nest-area location or mean rates of nightly movement, suggesting that the northern bettong is well adapted to the low- and medium-intensity fires that characterise its habitat.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Highlights of drought policy and related science in Australia and the USA

Patterns of water supply and use in Australia and the U.S.A. differ in many ways. This results in different perceptions concerning the nature of drought and policy approaches to its management. This paper discusses the differences and similarities and explores lessons that policy makers in both countries can learn from one another. A key difference between the two countries is that whereas drought is perceived in Australia essentially in terms of its impact on agriculture, in the U.S. both perceptions and policy are also heavily influenced by the impact of drought on urban communities. This has led to different policy emphases. In 1992 Australia established its National Drought Policy; the U.S. is presently considering the adoption of a national drought policy. These policies highlight drought being accepted as part of natural climate variability, rather than as a natural disaster. They also emphasize the protection of the natural resource base.

The Role of Non-Market Valuation in Forest Management and Recreation Policy

Forests, and particularly those where native and mixed species are gown, provide a variety of non-wood values, important among which are recreation and environmental services. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in estimating economic values on these services. A considerable amount of research on forest values has been carried out recently in tropical and sub-tropical eastern Australia, some of which is reported in the following papers. The need for estimates of non-wood forest benefits is apparent, and it is clear that further development of techniques and a greater understanding of the way these values can be integrated into public-sector decision making is required.

Tree use, diet and home range of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) at Blair Athol, central Queensland

Free-ranging koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) were monitored by means of radio-relocation in the area of Blair Athol Coal Mine and surrounding properties. Daytime tree use, home range and diet of these koalas was determined in spring and autumn, as was the leaf moisture composition of potential fodder species. Koalas used on average 93 (male koalas) and 56 (female koalas) trees during the period of observation, occupying home ranges of 135 and 101 ha respectively. Mean sightings per tree were 1.19 for both males and females and home-range sizes were not significantly different between sexes or seasons. Koalas were observed returning to previously used daytime roosting trees infrequently (