Efficient regression analysis with ranked-set sampling

This article is motivated by a lung cancer study where a regression model is involved and the response variable is too expensive to measure but the predictor variable can be measured easily with relatively negligible cost. This situation occurs quite often in medical studies, quantitative genetics, and ecological and environmental studies. In this article, by using the idea of ranked-set sampling (RSS), we develop sampling strategies that can reduce cost and increase efficiency of the regression analysis for the above-mentioned situation. The developed method is applied retrospectively to a lung cancer study. In the lung cancer study, the interest is to investigate the association between smoking status and three biomarkers: polyphenol DNA adducts, micronuclei, and sister chromatic exchanges. Optimal sampling schemes with different optimality criteria such as A-, D-, and integrated mean square error (IMSE)-optimality are considered in the application. With set size 10 in RSS, the improvement of the optimal schemes over simple random sampling (SRS) is great. For instance, by using the optimal scheme with IMSE-optimality, the IMSEs of the estimated regression functions for the three biomarkers are reduced to about half of those incurred by using SRS.

Effect of a magnetic field on the flow and blood oxygenation in channels of variable cross-section

The effect of a magnetic field on the flow and oxygenation of an incompressible Newtonian conducting fluid in channels with irregular boundaries has been investigated. The geometric parameter δ, which is a ratio of the mean half width of the channel d to the characteristic length λ along the channel over which the significant changes in the flow quantities occur, has been used for perturbing the governing equations. Closed form solutions of the various order equations are presented for the stream function. The equations for oxygen partial pressure remain nonlinear even after perturbation, therefore a numerical solution is presented. The expressions for shear stress at a wall and pressure distributions are derived. Here the separation in the flow occurs at a higher Reynolds number than the corresponding non-magnetic case. It is found that the magnetic field has an effect on local oxygen concentration but has a little effect on the saturation length.

Variable Size Population NSGA-II: VPNSGA-II

Multi-objective optimization is an active field of research with broad applicability in aeronautics. This report details a variant of the original NSGA-II software aimed to improve the performances of such a widely used Genetic Algorithm in finding the optimal Pareto-front of a Multi-Objective optimization problem for the use of UAV and aircraft design and optimsaiton. Original NSGA-II works on a population of predetermined constant size and its computational cost to evaluate one generation is O(mn^2 ), being m the number of objective functions and n the population size. The basic idea encouraging this work is that of reduce the computational cost of the NSGA-II algorithm by making it work on a population of variable size, in order to obtain better convergence towards the Pareto-front in less time. In this work some test functions will be tested with both original NSGA-II and VPNSGA-II algorithms; each test will be timed in order to get a measure of the computational cost of each trial and the results will be compared.

Generation of optimum random pinhole arrays for multiple imaging

Through an analysis using the transfer function of a pinhole camera, the multiple imaging characteristics of photographic diffusers described by Grover and Tremblay [Appl. Opt.21,4500(1982)] is studied. It is found that only one pinhole diameter satisfies the optimum imaging condition for best contrast transfer at any desired spatial frequency. A simple method of generating random pinhole arrays with a controlled pinhole diameter is described. These pinhole arrays are later used to generate high frequency sinusoidal gratings from a coarse grid. The contrast in the final gratings is found to be reasonably high.

Bond graph toolbox for handling complex variable

Bond graph is an apt modelling tool for any system working across multiple energy domains. Power electronics system modelling is usually the study of the interplay of energy in the domains of electrical, mechanical, magnetic and thermal. The usefulness of bond graph modelling in power electronic field has been realised by researchers. Consequently in the last couple of decades, there has been a steadily increasing effort in developing simulation tools for bond graph modelling that are specially suited for power electronic study. For modelling rotating magnetic fields in electromagnetic machine models, a support for vector variables is essential. Unfortunately, all bond graph simulation tools presently provide support only for scalar variables. We propose an approach to provide complex variable and vector support to bond graph such that it will enable modelling of polyphase electromagnetic and spatial vector systems. We also introduced a rotary gyrator element and use it along with the switched junction for developing the complex/vector variable's toolbox. This approach is implemented by developing a complex S-function tool box in Simulink inside a MATLAB environment This choice has been made so as to synthesise the speed of S-function, the user friendliness of Simulink and the popularity of MATLAB.

Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

A Nonlinear System Under Combined Periodic and Random Excitation

The anharmonic oscillator under combined sinusoidal and white noise excitation is studied using the Gaussian closure approximation. The mean response and the steady-state variance of the system is obtained by the WKBJ approximation and also by the Fokker Planck equation. The multiple steadystate solutions are obtained and their stability analysis is presented. Numerical results are obtained for a particular set of system parameters. The theoretical results are compared with a digital simulation study to bring out the usefulness of the present approximate theory.

Variable growth rates of the tropical estuarine fish barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) under different freshwater flow conditions

Relationships between freshwater flows and growth rates of the opportunistic predatory finfish barramundi Lates calcarifer in a dry tropical estuary were examined using data from a long-term tag-recapture programme. Lagged effects were not investigated. After accounting for length at release, time at liberty and seasonal variation (e.g. winter, spring, summer and autumn), growth rates were significantly and positively related to fresh water flowing to the estuary. Effects were present at relatively low levels of freshwater flow (i.e. 2.15 m3 s-1, the 5th percentile of the mean flow rate experienced by fish in the study during time at liberty). The analysis, although correlative, provides quantitative evidence to support the hypothesis that freshwater flows are important in driving the productivity of estuaries and can improve growth of species high in the trophic chain.

Helix-coil stability constants for amino acids in nonaqueous solvents. Studies of random poly(-benzyl-L-glutamate-co-L-alanine) and poly(-benzyl-L-glutamate-co-L-leucine) in a mixed solvent

The host-guest technique has been applied to the determination of the helix-coil stability constants of two naturally occurring amino acids, L-alanine and L-leucine, in a nonaqueous solvent system. Random copolymers containing L-alanine and L-leucine, respectively, as guest residues and -benzyl-L-glutamate as the host residue were synthesized. The polymers were fractionated and characterized for their amino acid content, molecular weight, and helix-coil transition behavior in a dichloroacetic acid (DCA)-1,2-dichloroethane (DCE) mixture. Two types of helix-coil transitions were carried out on the copolymers: solvent-induced transitions in DCA-DCE mixtures at 25°C and thermally induced transitions in a 82:18 (wt %) DCA-DCE mixture. The thermally induced transitions were analyzed by statistical mechanical methods to determine the Zimm-Bragg parameters, and s, of the guest residues. The experimental data indicate that, in the nonaqueous solvent, the L-alanine residue stabilizes the -helical conformation more than the L-leucine residue does. This is in contrast to their behavior in aqueous solution, where the reverse is true. The implications of this finding for the analysis of helical structures in globular proteins are discussed.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Application of various viscosity theories to the viscosity data of methyl methacrylate-acrylonitrile random copolymersstar

Values of Ko, Flory constant related to unperturbed dimensions, are evaluated for methyl methacrylate-acrylonitrile random copolymers using Flory-Fox, Kurata-Stockmayer and Inagaki-Ptitsyn methods and compared with the Ko values obtained by Stockmayer-Fixman method. Ko values are seen to be less in solvents which have large a (Mark-Houwink exponent) values. A correlation between Ko and a is developed to arrive at a more reliable estimate of Ko for this copolymer system.

Non-linear resonance in strings under narrow band random excitation, part I: Planar response and stability

Non-linear planar response of a string to planar narrow band random excitation is investigated in this paper. A response equation for the mean square deflection σ2 is obtained under a single mode approximation by using the equivalent linearization technique. It is shown that the response is triple valued, as in the case of harmonic excitation, if the centre frequency of excitation Ω lies in a certain specified range. The triple valued response occurs only if the excitation bandwidth β is smaller than a critical value βcrit which is a monotonically increasing function of the intensity of excitation. An approximate method of investigating the almost sure asymptotic stability of the solution is presented and regions of instability in the Ω-σ2 plane have been charted. It is shown that planar response can become unstable either due to an unbounded growth of the in-plane component of motion or due to a spontaneous appearance of an out-of-plane component.

Development and Simulation of a Variable Rate Controller for an Air search and Air Sampling Unmanned Aerial System

This report describes the development and simulation of a variable rate controller for a 6-degree of freedom nonlinear model. The variable rate simulation model represents an off the shelf autopilot. Flight experiment involves risks and can be expensive. Therefore a dynamic model to understand the performance characteristics of the UAS in mission simulation before actual flight test or to obtain parameters needed for the flight is important. The control and guidance is implemented in Simulink. The report tests the use of the model for air search and air sampling path planning. A GUI in which a set of mission scenarios, in which two experts (mission expert, i.e. air sampling or air search and an UAV expert) interact, is presented showing the benefits of the method.

Aircraft pursuit-evasion problems with variable speeds

Aircraft pursuit-evasion encounters in a plane with variable speeds are analysed as a differential game. An engagement-dependent coordinate system confers open-loop optimality on the game. Each aircraft's optimal motion can be represented by extremel trajectory maps which are independent of role, adversary and capture radius. These maps are used in two different ways to construct the feedback solution. Some examples are given to illustrate these features. The paper draws on earlier results and surveys several existing papers on the subject.

An identification tool for the Australian weedy Sporobolus species based on random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiles

Based on morphological features alone, there is considerable difficulty in identifying the 5 most economically damaging weed species of Sporobolus [viz. S. pyramidalis P. Beauv., S. natalensis (Steud.) Dur and Schinz, S. fertilis (Steud.) Clayton, S. africanus (Poir.) Robyns and Tourney, and S. jacquemontii Kunth.] found in Australia. A polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to create a series of genetic markers that could positively identify the 5 major weeds from the other less damaging weedy and native Sporobolus species. In the initial RAPD profiling experiment, using arbitrarily selected primers and involving 12 species of Sporobolus, 12 genetic markers were found that, when used in combination, could consistently identify the 5 weedy species from all others. Of these 12 markers, the most diagnostic were UBC51490 for S. pyramidalis and S. natalensis; UBC43310.2000.2100 for S. fertilis and S. africanus; and ORA20850 and UBC43470 for S. jacquemontii. Species-specific markers could be found only for S. jacquemontii. In an effort to understand why there was difficulty in obtaining species-specific markers for some of the weedy species, a RAPD data matrix was created using 40 RAPD products. These 40 products amplified by 6 random primers from 45 individuals belonging to 12 species, were then subjected to numerical taxonomy and multivariate system (NTSYS pc version 1.70) analysis. The RAPD similarity matrix generated from the analysis indicated that S. pyramidalis was genetically more similar to S. natalensis than to other species of the 'S. indicus complex'. Similarly, S. jacquemontii was more similar to S. pyramidalis, and S. fertilis was more similar to S. africanus than to other species of the complex. Sporobolus pyramidalis, S. jacquemontii, S. africanus, and S. creber exhibited a low within-species genetic diversity, whereas high genetic diversity was observed within S. natalensis, S. fertilis, S. sessilis, S. elongates, and S. laxus. Cluster analysis placed all of the introduced species (major and minor weedy species) into one major cluster, with S. pyramidalis and S. natalensis in one distinct subcluster and S. fertilis and S. africanus in another. The native species formed separate clusters in the phenograms. The close genetic similarity of S. pyramidalis to S. natalensis, and S. fertilis to S. africanus may explain the difficulty in obtaining RAPD species-specific markers. The importance of these results will be within the Australian dairy and beef industries and will aid in the development of integrated management strategy for these weeds.