Asset health prediction using condition indicators and operating environment indicators : a case study

Prognostics and asset life prediction is one of research potentials in engineering asset health management. We previously developed the Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) to effectively and explicitly predict asset life using three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators. We have formerly studied the application of both the semi-parametric EHM and non-parametric EHM to the survival probability estimation in the reliability field. The survival time in these models is dependent not only upon the age of the asset monitored, but also upon the condition and operating environment information obtained. This paper is a further study of the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs to the hazard and residual life prediction of a set of resistance elements. The resistance elements were used as corrosion sensors for measuring the atmospheric corrosion rate in a laboratory experiment. In this paper, the estimated hazard of the resistance element using the semi-parametric EHM and the non-parametric EHM is compared to the traditional Weibull model and the Aalen Linear Regression Model (ALRM), respectively. Due to assuming a Weibull distribution in the baseline hazard of the semi-parametric EHM, the estimated hazard using this model is compared to the traditional Weibull model. The estimated hazard using the non-parametric EHM is compared to ALRM which is a well-known non-parametric covariate-based hazard model. At last, the predicted residual life of the resistance element using both EHMs is compared to the actual life data.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

Application of machine learning in fault diagnostics of mechanical systems

A diagnostic method based on Bayesian Networks (probabilistic graphical models) is presented. Unlike conventional diagnostic approaches, in this method instead of focusing on system residuals at one or a few operating points, diagnosis is done by analyzing system behavior patterns over a window of operation. It is shown how this approach can loosen the dependency of diagnostic methods on precise system modeling while maintaining the desired characteristics of fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) tools (fault isolation, robustness, adaptability, and scalability) at a satisfactory level. As an example, the method is applied to fault diagnosis in HVAC systems, an area with considerable modeling and sensor network constraints.

Reactive image-based collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft systems

Approximately 20 years have passed now since the NTSB issued its original recommendation to expedite development, certification and production of low-cost proximity warning and conflict detection systems for general aviation [1]. While some systems are in place (TCAS [2]), ¡¨see-and-avoid¡¨ remains the primary means of separation between light aircrafts sharing the national airspace. The requirement for a collision avoidance or sense-and-avoid capability onboard unmanned aircraft has been identified by leading government, industry and regulatory bodies as one of the most significant challenges facing the routine operation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the national airspace system (NAS) [3, 4]. In this thesis, we propose and develop a novel image-based collision avoidance system to detect and avoid an upcoming conflict scenario (with an intruder) without first estimating or filtering range. The proposed collision avoidance system (CAS) uses relative bearing ƒÛ and angular-area subtended ƒê , estimated from an image, to form a test statistic AS C . This test statistic is used in a thresholding technique to decide if a conflict scenario is imminent. If deemed necessary, the system will command the aircraft to perform a manoeuvre based on ƒÛ and constrained by the CAS sensor field-of-view. Through the use of a simulation environment where the UAS is mathematically modelled and a flight controller developed, we show that using Monte Carlo simulations a probability of a Mid Air Collision (MAC) MAC RR or a Near Mid Air Collision (NMAC) RiskRatio can be estimated. We also show the performance gain this system has over a simplified version (bearings-only ƒÛ ). This performance gain is demonstrated in the form of a standard operating characteristic curve. Finally, it is shown that the proposed CAS performs at a level comparable to current manned aviations equivalent level of safety (ELOS) expectations for Class E airspace. In some cases, the CAS may be oversensitive in manoeuvring the owncraft when not necessary, but this constitutes a more conservative and therefore safer, flying procedures in most instances.

Investigating relationships between relationship quality, customer loyalty and cooperation : an empirical study of convenience stores' franchise chain systems

Small business has been shown to contribute significantly to a nation’s economic development. Small business owners typically confront challenges, uncertainty, and risks while operating new businesses. Franchising has become a way to minimize the risks of small business management (Chiou et al., 2004); however, a franchise system is not a guarantee of business success (Lee and Karkovista, 2001). A poor franchising relationship between franchisors and franchisees can result in franchise failure, such as termination and closure, or franchisee exit (Frazer and Winzar, 2005).

Fiber Bragg Grating sensors for railway systems

Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor technology has been attracting substantial industrial interests for the last decade. FBG sensors have seen increasing acceptance and widespread use for structural sensing and health monitoring applications in composites, civil engineering, aerospace, marine, oil & gas, and smart structures. One transportation system that has been benefitted tremendously from this technology is railways, where it is of the utmost importance to understand the structural and operating conditions of rails as well as that of freight and passenger service cars to ensure safe and reliable operation. Fiberoptic sensors, mostly in the form of FBGs, offer various important characteristics, such as EMI/RFI immunity, multiplexing capability, and very long-range interrogation (up to 230 km between FBGs and measurement unit), over the conventional electrical sensors for the distinctive operational conditions in railways. FBG sensors are unique from other types of fiber-optic sensors as the measured information is wavelength-encoded, which provides self-referencing and renders their signals less susceptible to intensity fluctuations. In addition, FBGs are reflective sensors that can be interrogated from either end, providing redundancy to FBG sensing networks. These two unique features are particularly important for the railway industry where safe and reliable operations are the major concerns. Furthermore, FBGs are very versatile and transducers based on FBGs can be designed to measure a wide range of parameters such as acceleration and inclination. Consequently, a single interrogator can deal with a large number of FBG sensors to measure a multitude of parameters at different locations that spans over a large area.

Using operations research methodologies to improve operating theatre scheduling

A hospital consists of a number of wards, units and departments that provide a variety of medical services and interact on a day-to-day basis. Nearly every department within a hospital schedules patients for the operating theatre (OT) and most wards receive patients from the OT following post-operative recovery. Because of the interrelationships between units, disruptions and cancellations within the OT can have a flow-on effect to the rest of the hospital. This often results in dissatisfied patients, nurses and doctors, escalating waiting lists, inefficient resource usage and undesirable waiting times. The objective of this study is to use Operational Research methodologies to enhance the performance of the operating theatre by improving elective patient planning using robust scheduling and improving the overall responsiveness to emergency patients by solving the disruption management and rescheduling problem. OT scheduling considers two types of patients: elective and emergency. Elective patients are selected from a waiting list and scheduled in advance based on resource availability and a set of objectives. This type of scheduling is referred to as ‘offline scheduling’. Disruptions to this schedule can occur for various reasons including variations in length of treatment, equipment restrictions or breakdown, unforeseen delays and the arrival of emergency patients, which may compete for resources. Emergency patients consist of acute patients requiring surgical intervention or in-patients whose conditions have deteriorated. These may or may not be urgent and are triaged accordingly. Most hospitals reserve theatres for emergency cases, but when these or other resources are unavailable, disruptions to the elective schedule result, such as delays in surgery start time, elective surgery cancellations or transfers to another institution. Scheduling of emergency patients and the handling of schedule disruptions is an ‘online’ process typically handled by OT staff. This means that decisions are made ‘on the spot’ in a ‘real-time’ environment. There are three key stages to this study: (1) Analyse the performance of the operating theatre department using simulation. Simulation is used as a decision support tool and involves changing system parameters and elective scheduling policies and observing the effect on the system’s performance measures; (2) Improve viability of elective schedules making offline schedules more robust to differences between expected treatment times and actual treatment times, using robust scheduling techniques. This will improve the access to care and the responsiveness to emergency patients; (3) Address the disruption management and rescheduling problem (which incorporates emergency arrivals) using innovative robust reactive scheduling techniques. The robust schedule will form the baseline schedule for the online robust reactive scheduling model.

Unit commitment in power systems with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

With the continued development of renewable energy generation technologies and increasing pressure to combat the global effects of greenhouse warming, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have received worldwide attention, finding applications in North America and Europe. When a large number of PHEVs are introduced into a power system, there will be extensive impacts on power system planning and operation, as well as on electricity market development. It is therefore necessary to properly control PHEV charging and discharging behaviors. Given this background, a new unit commitment model and its solution method that takes into account the optimal PHEV charging and discharging controls is presented in this paper. A 10-unit and 24-hour unit commitment (UC) problem is employed to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the developed method, and the impacts of the wide applications of PHEVs on the operating costs and the emission of the power system are studied. Case studies are also carried out to investigate the impacts of different PHEV penetration levels and different PHEV charging modes on the results of the UC problem. A 100-unit system is employed for further analysis on the impacts of PHEVs on the UC problem in a larger system application. Simulation results demonstrate that the employment of optimized PHEV charging and discharging modes is very helpful for smoothing the load curve profile and enhancing the ability of the power system to accommodate more PHEVs. Furthermore, an optimal Vehicle to Grid (V2G) discharging control provides economic and efficient backups and spinning reserves for the secure and economic operation of the power system

Candidate radial-inflow turbines and high-density working fluids for geothermal power systems

Optimisation of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORCs) for binary-cycle geothermal applications could play a major role in determining the competitiveness of low to moderate temperature geothermal resources. Part of this optimisation process is matching cycles to a given resource such that power output can be maximised. Two major and largely interrelated components of the cycle are the working fluid and the turbine. Both components need careful consideration: the selection of working fluid and appropriate operating conditions as well as optimisation of the turbine design for those conditions will determine the amount of power that can be extracted from a resource. In this paper, we present the rationale for the use of radial-inflow turbines for ORC applications and the preliminary design of several radial-inflow machines based on a number of promising ORC systems that use five different working fluids: R134a, R143a, R236fa, R245fa and n-Pentane. Preliminary meanline analysis lead to the generation of turbine designs for the various cycles with similar efficiencies (77%) but large differences in dimensions (139–289 mm rotor diameter). The highest performing cycle, based on R134a, was found to produce 33% more net power from a 150 °C resource flowing at 10 kg/s than the lowest performing cycle, based on n-Pentane.

OpenRatSLAM : an open source brain-based SLAM system

RatSLAM is a navigation system based on the neural processes underlying navigation in the rodent brain, capable of operating with low resolution monocular image data. Seminal experiments using RatSLAM include mapping an entire suburb with a web camera and a long term robot delivery trial. This paper describes OpenRatSLAM, an open-source version of RatSLAM with bindings to the Robot Operating System framework to leverage advantages such as robot and sensor abstraction, networking, data playback, and visualization. OpenRatSLAM comprises connected ROS nodes to represent RatSLAM’s pose cells, experience map, and local view cells, as well as a fourth node that provides visual odometry estimates. The nodes are described with reference to the RatSLAM model and salient details of the ROS implementation such as topics, messages, parameters, class diagrams, sequence diagrams, and parameter tuning strategies. The performance of the system is demonstrated on three publicly available open-source datasets.

Analytical model for fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays in power systems [电力系统故障诊断与不可观测保护状态识别的解析模型]

In recent years, some models have been proposed for the fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays (FSE-SIUPR) under the condition of incomplete state information of protective relays. In these models, the temporal alarm information from a faulted power system is not well explored although it is very helpful in compensating the incomplete state information of protective relays, quickly achieving definite fault diagnosis results and evaluating the operating status of protective relays and circuit breakers in complicated fault scenarios. In order to solve this problem, an integrated optimization mathematical model for the FSE-SIUPR, which takes full advantage of the temporal characteristics of alarm messages, is developed in the framework of the well-established temporal constraint network. With this model, the fault evolution procedure can be explained and some states of unobserved protective relays identified. The model is then solved by means of the Tabu search (TS) and finally verified by test results of fault scenarios in a practical power system.

Transmission system expansion planning considering combined operation of wind farms and energy storage systems

An energy storage system (ESS) can provide ancillary services such as frequency regulation and reserves, as well as smooth the fluctuations of wind power outputs, and hence improve the security and economics of the power system concerned. The combined operation of a wind farm and an ESS has become a widely accepted operating mode. Hence, it appears necessary to consider this operating mode in transmission system expansion planning, and this is an issue to be systematically addressed in this work. Firstly, the relationship between the cost of the NaS based ESS and its discharging cycle life is analyzed. A strategy for the combined operation of a wind farm and an ESS is next presented, so as to have a good compromise between the operating cost of the ESS and the smoothing effect of the fluctuation of wind power outputs. Then, a transmission system expansion planning model is developed with the sum of the transmission investment costs, the investment and operating costs of ESSs and the punishment cost of lost wind energy as the objective function to be minimized. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the developed planning model. Finally, the essential features of the developed model and adopted algorithm are demonstrated by 18-bus and 46-bus test systems.

Developing schedules for mixed rail and road cane transport systems

This paper addresses the problem of scheduling a cane transport system involving both rail transport and road transport, where the road transport operates from several sidings in the rail network. An iterative approach for scheduling the rail transport system has been developed using existing rail transport scheduling tools. The assumption that harvesters serviced by road transport are effectively operating from the rail siding from which their bins are supplied seems a reasonable starting point for the analysis. There is a need to manually modify the schedule to take into account the road transport schedule to ensure that full bins are not collected before the road transport system delivers them back to the rail siding.

Generator coherency and area detection in large power systems

This paper provides a new general approach for defining coherent generators in power systems based on the coherency in low frequency inter-area modes. The disturbance is considered to be distributed in the network by applying random load changes which is the random walk representation of real loads instead of a single fault and coherent generators are obtained by spectrum analysis of the generators velocity variations. In order to find the coherent areas and their borders in the inter-connected networks, non-generating buses are assigned to each group of coherent generator using similar coherency detection techniques. The method is evaluated on two test systems and coherent generators and areas are obtained for different operating points to provide a more accurate grouping approach which is valid across a range of realistic operating points of the system.

Universal active and reactive power control of electronically interfaced distributed generation sources in virtual power plants operating in gridconnected and islanding modes

The control paradigms of the distributed generation (DG) sources in the smart grid are realised by either utilising virtual power plant (VPP) or by employing MicroGrid structures. Both VPP and MicroGrid are presented with the problem of control of power flow between their comprising DG sources. This study depicts this issue for VPP and proposes a novel and improved universal active and reactive power flow controllers for three-phase pulse width modulated voltage source inverters (PWM-VSI) operating in the VPP environment. The proposed controller takes into account all cases of R-X relationship, thus allowing it to function in systems operating at high, medium (MV) and low-voltage (LV) levels. Also proposed control scheme for the first time in an inverter control takes into account the capacitance of the transmission line which is an important factor to accurately represent medium length transmission lines. This allows the proposed control scheme to be applied in VPP structures, where DG sources can operate at MV LV levels over a short/medium length transmission line. The authors also conducted small signal stability analysis of the proposed controller and compared it against the small signal study of the existing controllers.