Performance and efficiency in Colombia's power utilities: an assessment of the 1994 reform

El artículo describe las características centrales de la reforma regulatoria al sector eléctrico en 1994 y evalúa el desempeño y la eficiencia de las empresas públicas antes y después de la reforma. El análisis de desempeño evalúa los cambios en medias y medianas en ganancias, eficiencia, inversión y ventas de las empresas privatizadas en el sector. La eficiencia técnica es estimada mediante la técnica DEA en una muestra de 33 plantas térmicas de energía, que representan el 85% del parque térmico; y 12 empresas distribuidoras de energía. La muestra de plantas generadoras está compuesta por plantas que estaban activas antes de la reforma y plantas nuevas que entraron en operación después de la reforma. Los principales resultados muestran que la eficiencia mejoro después de la reforma y que la política regulatoria ha tenido un efecto positivo en la eficiencia de la generación térmica de energía. Por el contrario, las distribuidoras de energía menos eficientes empeoraron después de la reforma y no llevaron a cabo una reestructuración para alcanzar la eficiencia productiva respecto a las empresas que conforman la frontera de eficiencia en distribución de energía.

Understanding safety and production risks in rail engineering planning and protection

Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of ‘safety’ and broad issues of ‘production’ or ‘performance’. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain – rail systems engineering work.

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

Production of tense marking in successive bilingual children: when do they converge with their monolingual peers?

Children with English as a second language (L2) with exposure of 18 months or less exhibit similar difficulties to children with Specific Language Impairment in tense marking, a marker of language impairment for English. This paper examines whether L2 children with longer exposure converge with their monolingual peers in the production of tense marking. 38 Turkish-English L2 children with a mean age of 7;8 and 33 monolingual age-matched controls completed the screening test of the Test of Early Grammatical Impairment (TEGI). The L2 children as a group were as accurate as the controls in the production of -ed, but performed significantly lower than the controls in the production of third person –s. Age and YoE affected the children’s performance. The highest age-expected performance on the TEGI was attested in eight and nine year-old children who had 4-6 YoE. L1 and L2 children performed better in regular compared to irregular verbs, but L2 children overregularized more than L1 children and were less sensitive to the phonological properties of verbs. The results show that tense marking and the screening test of the TEGI may be promising for differential diagnosis in eight and nine year-old L2 children with at least four YoE.

A safety evaluation of genetically modified feedstuffs for livestock production; the fate of transgenic DNA and proteins

dTwo genetic constructs used to confer improved agronomic characteristics, namely herbicide tolerance (HT) in maize and soyabean and insect resistance (Bt) in maize, are considered in respect of feeding to farm livestock, animal performance and the nutritional value and safety of animal products. A review of nucleic acid (DNA) and protein digestion in farm livestock concludes that the frequency of intact transgenic DNA and proteins of GM and non-GM crops being absorbed is minimal/non existent, although there is some evidence of the presence of short fragments of rubisco DNA of non-GM soya in animal tissues. It has been established that feed processing (especially heat) prior to feeding causes significant disruption of plant DNA. Studies with ruminant and non-ruminant farm livestock offered GM feeds demonstrated that animal performance and product composition are unaffected and that there is no evidence of transgenic DNA or proteins of current GM in the products of animals consuming such feeds. On this evidence, current HT and Bt constructs represent no threat to the health of animals, or humans consuming the products of such animals. However as new GM constructs become available it will be necessary to subject these to rigorous evaluation.

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

Effects of corn silage derived from a genetically modified variety containing two Transgenes on feed intake, milk production, and composition, and the absence of detectable Transgenic deoxyribonucleic acid in milk in holstein dairy cows

The objectives were to compare the chemical composition, nutritive value, feed intake, milk production and composition, and presence in milk of transgenic DNA and the encoded protein Cry1Ab when corn silages containing 2 transgenes (2GM: herbicide tolerance: mepsps and insect resistance: cry1Ab) were fed as part of a standard total mixed ration (TMR) compared with a near isogenic corn silage ( C) to 8 multiparous lactating Holstein dairy cows in a single reversal design study. Cows were fed a TMR ration ad libitum and milked twice daily. Diets contained [ dry matter (DM) basis] 45% corn silage, 10% alfalfa hay, and 45% concentrate (1.66 Mcal of net energy for lactation/kg of DM, 15.8% crude protein, 35% neutral detergent fiber, and 4.1% fat). Each period was 28-d long. During the last 4 d of each period, feed intake and milk production data were recorded and milk samples taken for compositional analysis, including the presence of transgenic DNA and Cry1Ab protein. There was no significant difference in the chemical composition between C and 2GM silages, and both were within the expected range (37.6% DM, 1.51 Mcal of net energy for lactation/kg, 8.6% crude protein, 40% neutral detergent fiber, 19.6% acid detergent fiber, pH 3.76, and 62% in vitro DM digestibility). Cows fed the 2GM silage produced milk with slightly higher protein (3.09 vs. 3.00%), lactose ( 4.83 vs. 4.72%) and solids-not-fat (8.60 vs. 8.40%) compared with C. However, the yield (kg/d) of milk (36.5), 3.5% fat-corrected milk (34.4), fat (1.151), protein (1.106), lactose (1.738), and solids-not-fat ( 3.094), somatic cell count (log(10): 2.11), change in body weight (+ 7.8 kg), and condition score (+ 0.09) were not affected by type of silage, indicating no overall production difference. All milk samples were negative for the presence of transgenic DNA from either trait or the Cry1Ab protein. Results indicate that the 2GM silage modified with 2 transgenes did not affect nutrient composition of the silages and had no effect on animal performance and milk composition. No transgenic DNA and Cry1Ab protein were detected in milk.

Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets

Grass-based diets are of increasing social-economic importance in dairy cattle farming, but their low supply of glucogenic nutrients may limit the production of milk. Current evaluation systems that assess the energy supply and requirements are based on metabolisable energy (ME) or net energy (NE). These systems do not consider the characteristics of the energy delivering nutrients. In contrast, mechanistic models take into account the site of digestion, the type of nutrient absorbed and the type of nutrient required for production of milk constituents, and may therefore give a better prediction of supply and requirement of nutrients. The objective of the present study is to compare the ability of three energy evaluation systems, viz. the Dutch NE system, the agricultural and food research council (AFRC) ME system, and the feed into milk (FIM) ME system, and of a mechanistic model based on Dijkstra et al. [Simulation of digestion in cattle fed sugar cane: prediction of nutrient supply for milk production with locally available supplements. J. Agric. Sci., Cambridge 127, 247-60] and Mills et al. [A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: model development, evaluation and application. J. Anim. Sci. 79, 1584-97] to predict the feed value of grass-based diets for milk production. The dataset for evaluation consists of 41 treatments of grass-based diets (at least 0.75 g ryegrass/g diet on DM basis). For each model, the predicted energy or nutrient supply, based on observed intake, was compared with predicted requirement based on observed performance. Assessment of the error of energy or nutrient supply relative to requirement is made by calculation of mean square prediction error (MSPE) and by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). All energy evaluation systems predicted energy requirement to be lower (6-11%) than energy supply. The root MSPE (expressed as a proportion of the supply) was lowest for the mechanistic model (0.061), followed by the Dutch NE system (0.082), FIM ME system (0.097) and AFRCME system(0.118). For the energy evaluation systems, the error due to overall bias of prediction dominated the MSPE, whereas for the mechanistic model, proportionally 0.76 of MSPE was due to random variation. CCC analysis confirmed the higher accuracy and precision of the mechanistic model compared with energy evaluation systems. The error of prediction was positively related to grass protein content for the Dutch NE system, and was also positively related to grass DMI level for all models. In conclusion, current energy evaluation systems overestimate energy supply relative to energy requirement on grass-based diets for dairy cattle. The mechanistic model predicted glucogenic nutrients to limit performance of dairy cattle on grass-based diets, and proved to be more accurate and precise than the energy systems. The mechanistic model could be improved by allowing glucose maintenance and utilization requirements parameters to be variable. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of supplementing maize stover with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) haulms on the intake and growth performance of Ethiopian sheep

This study compared the effect of supplementing maize stover (MS) with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) haulms or commercial concentrate (CC) on feed intake, nutrient digestibility, live weight gain and carcass yield of male Ethiopian Highland sheep. Two cowpea genotypes, 12688 (forage) and IT96D-774 (dual-purpose), were used. A randomised block design was applied with groups of eight sheep, blocked by weight, allocated to one of six treatments; MS ad libitum either unsupplemented or supplemented daily with 150 or 300g dry matter (DM) of either cowpea or CC. MS contained more neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and lignin than either cowpeas or CC Crude protein (CP) content of the forage-type cowpeas was higher than either dual-purpose or CC, while MS had the lowest CP content Relative to the negative control group, cowpea at either level significantly (P < 0.01) increased both MS intake and total NDF and lignin. Supplementation significantly (P < 0.01) increased nitrogen (N) intakes relative to the negative control, with N intake for CC and dual-purpose cowpea (high level) being similar to the intakes for cowpeas at 150g. N intake with the forage-type cowpea offered at higher levels was significantly (P < 0.01) greater than the other groups. No significant differences (P > 0.01) in MS intake were identified between cowpeas at either level or CC and, although intake level of CC increased, it did not differ significantly from the negative control group. Supplementation significantly (P < 0.01) improved average daily gain, with the negative control group losing weight over the experimental period, and increased final live weight, carcass cold weight and dressing percentage. Supplementation significantly improved the apparent digestibility of DM, organic matter and NDF, with no significant difference found between cowpeas at either level. N retention was negative for sheep offered only MS, but positive with all supplements, with cowpeas improving N retention to a greater extent than CC. Interestingly, N retention/N intake was higher with cowpeas offered at the lower level suggesting an improvement in utilisation efficiency. The results indicate that the supplementation of MS with cowpea enhanced ruminant production through improvements in digestibility and intake. Further, as production improvements associated with the two levels of supplementation did not differ significantly, it is suggested that where limited quantities of cowpea are available, it may be of greater nutritional benefit to offer smaller quantities over an increased number of animal days.

The effects of a short-term increase in supplementation on the reproduction performance in lactating crossbred dairy cows

The hypothesis that dairy cows partially suckling their calves would ovulate following removal of calves when restored to positive energy balance by a short-term increase in supplementation was investigated in 65 crossbred cows. Five treatments (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5) that differed in the amount of total concentrate fed from calving to week 24 were involved. Calves were allowed to suck residual milk to 12 weeks of age. Energy balance was estimated by measuring intake, milk yield and organic matter digestibility. The occurrence of ovulation was determined by the analysis of milk progesterone (P4) concentration. Four groups that were receiving additional supplementation were restored to positive energy balance, while the control group (T I) remained in negative energy balance. The percentage of cows ovulating was 36%, 58%, 92%, 90% and 60% for T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5, respectively (P = 0.026). Comparison of the timing of ovulation for combined results from T1+T2 and T3+T4+T5 estimated mean time to fail to ovulate as 110 +/- 9.0 and 87 +/- 7.6 days, respectively (p = 0.023). The percentage of the cows showing oestrus was 9%, 8%, 33%, 40% and 40% for T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5, respectively (P = 0.197). Short-term increases in supplementation are unlikely to be an attractive means of reducing calving intervals.

Organic dairy production: A review

Organic farming aims to create an integrated, humane, environmentally and economically sustainable agricultural system. For organic dairy systems, the fulfilment of these aims requires the understanding and integration of a number of systems components including land use (mixed or dairy only) and stocking rate; grassland and forage production, including quantity and quality; potential milk yield and milk quality; animal nutrition (largely farm based) and health; environmental sustainability such as farm nutrient balance; the financial status of the farm, including enterprise performance, fixed costs and labour use, and farm income and profit; and finally the policy environment in which organic dairy systems operate. This review discusses worldwide research undertaken into each of these key components of organic dairy production systems. As converting organic dairy systems are often considerably different to established organic systems, both the converting and developed organic dairy system are discussed in this paper.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.