A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

Gaussian Process Regression Networks

We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables, input dependent length-scales and amplitudes, and heavy-tailed predictive distributions. We derive both efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational Bayes inference procedures for this model. We apply GPRN as a multiple output regression and multivariate volatility model, demonstrating substantially improved performance over eight popular multiple output (multi-task) Gaussian process models and three multivariate volatility models on benchmark datasets, including a 1000 dimensional gene expression dataset.

Towards the development of an integrated design framework using the Blackboard model

Current research into the process of engineering design is extending the use of computers towards the acquisition, representation and application of design process knowledge in addition to the existing storage and manipulation of product-based models of design objects. This is a difficult task because the design of mechanical systems is a complex, often unpredictable process involving ill-structured problem solving skills and large amounts of knowledge, some which may be of an incomplete and subjective nature. Design problems require the integration of a variety of modes of working such as numerical, graphical, algorithmic or heuristic and demand products through synthesis, analysis and evaluation activities.

This report presents the results of a feasibility study into the blackboard approach and discusses the development of an initial prototype system that will enable an alphanumeric design dialogue between a designer and an expert to be analysed in a formal way, thus providing real-life protocol data on which to base the blackboard message structures.

Exploring the process of whole system design

This paper explores the adoption of a whole system approach to a more sustainable and innovative design. A case study methodology was utilised to gain improved understanding of whole system design and those factors that substantially influence its success. The paper presents a framework of those factors including the requirement for trans-disciplinary skills, the dynamics of a flattened hierarchy and the need to identify relationships between parts of the system to ultimately optimise the whole. Knowing the factors that influence the process of whole system design provides designers with the knowledge necessary to more effectively work within, manage and facilitate that process. This paper uses anecdotes taken from operational cases, across design contexts, to demonstrate those factors. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Re-conceptualising value in the engineering design process: The value cycle map

Introducing a "Cheaper, Faster, Better" product in today's highly competitive market is a challenging target. Therefore, for organizations to improve their performance in this area, they need to adopt methods such as process modelling, risk mitigation and lean principles. Recently, several industries and researchers focused efforts on transferring the value orientation concept to other phases of the Product Life Cycle (PLC) such as Product Development (PD), after its evident success in manufacturing. In PD, value maximization, which is the main objective of lean theory, has been of particular interest as an improvement concept that can enhance process flow logistics and support decision-making. This paper presents an ongoing study of the current understanding of value thinking in PD (VPD) with a focus on value dimensions and implementation benefits. The purpose of this study is to consider the current state of knowledge regarding value thinking in PD, and to propose a definition of value and a framework for analyzing value delivery. The framework-named the Value Cycle Map (VCM)- intends to facilitate understanding of value and its delivery mechanism in the context of the PLC. We suggest the VCM could be used as a foundation for future research in value modelling and measurement in PD.

A framework for distributed intelligent automation systems developments

This paper proposes a pragmatic framework that has been developed for classifying and analyzing developments in distributed automation and information systems - especially those that have been labeled intelligent systems for different reasons. The framework dissects the different stages in the standard feedback process and assesses distribution in terms of the level of granularity of the organization that is being considered. The framework has been found to be useful in comparing and assessing different distributed industrial control paradigms and also for examining common features of different development projects - especially those that might be sourced from different sectors or domains. © 2012 IFAC.

A framework for estimating difficulty and exclusion from tasks during inclusive design

Measuring capability variations within the population isanimportant process that can be used to support decision making regarding the inclusivity of design for all users, thus allowing the level of exclusion tobe defined veryearly and throughout the design process. Our hands often represent a central feature of the human-task interaction, and therefore, variations in the capabilities of the hands has the potential to exclude people from all or part of the tasks they perform. Data is presented from the performance of 15 people in one of three age groups (18-40, 41-64 and 65+). Using a classification system for defining hand actions the prevalence of different grips in response to a range of physical task demands was mapped in a way that allowed capability to be measured against other variables such as task quality. This was found toenhance thegranularity with which exclusion could be both measured and predicted.

Scaling the Indian Buffet Process via Submodular Maximization

Inference for latent feature models is inherently difficult as the inference space grows exponentially with the size of the input data and number of latent features. In this work, we use Kurihara & Welling (2008)'s maximization-expectation framework to perform approximate MAP inference for linear-Gaussian latent feature models with an Indian Buffet Process (IBP) prior. This formulation yields a submodular function of the features that corresponds to a lower bound on the model evidence. By adding a constant to this function, we obtain a nonnegative submodular function that can be maximized via a greedy algorithm that obtains at least a one-third approximation to the optimal solution. Our inference method scales linearly with the size of the input data, and we show the efficacy of our method on the largest datasets currently analyzed using an IBP model.

A conceptual client-designer framework: Inspiring the development of inclusive design interactive techniques

The adoption of inclusive design approach into design practice is compatible to the needs of an ageing society. However, tools and methods that promote inclusivity during new product development are scarcely used in industry. This paper is part of a research project that investigates ways to accommodate inclusive design into the design process in industrial context. The present paper is based on the finds from the observations and interviews with industrial designers and interviews with stakeholders. The outcomes from the study supported a better understanding of the client-designer dynamic as well as the stages in the design process where information related to inclusive design could be introduced. The findings were essential to inspire the development of an inclusive design interactive technique to be used by clients and designers. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Framework for integration of informal waste management sector with the formal sector in Pakistan.

Historically, waste pickers around the globe have utilised urban solid waste as a principal source of livelihood. Formal waste management sectors usually perceive the informal waste collection/recycling networks as backward, unhygienic and generally incompatible with modern waste management systems. It is proposed here that through careful planning and administration, these seemingly troublesome informal networks can be integrated into formal waste management systems in developing countries, providing mutual benefits. A theoretical framework for integration based on a case study in Lahore, Pakistan, is presented. The proposed solution suggests that the municipal authority should draw up and agree on a formal work contract with the group of waste pickers already operating in the area. The proposed system is assessed using the integration radar framework to classify and analyse possible intervention points between the sectors. The integration of the informal waste workers with the formal waste management sector is not a one dimensional or single step process. An ideal solution might aim for a balanced focus on all four categories of intervention, although this may be influenced by local conditions. Not all the positive benefits will be immediately apparent, but it is expected that as the acceptance of such projects increases over time, the informal recycling economy will financially supplement the formal system in many ways.

Depicting the future strategic plans of the Royal Australian Navy using a roadmapping framework as a visual composite canvas

Strategic planning can be an arduous and complex task; and, once a plan has been devised, it is often quite a challenge to effectively communicate the principal missions and key priorities to the array of different stakeholders. The communication challenge can be addressed through the application of a clearly and concisely designed visualisation of the strategic plan - to that end, this paper proposes the use of a roadmapping framework to structure a visual canvas. The canvas provides a template in the form of a single composite visual output that essentially allows a 'plan-on-a-page' to be generated. Such a visual representation provides a high-level depiction of the future context, end-state capabilities and the system-wide transitions needed to realise the strategic vision. To demonstrate this approach, an illustrative case study based on the Australian Government's Defence White Paper and the Royal Australian Navy's fleet plan will be presented. The visual plan plots the in-service upgrades for addressing the capability shortfalls and gaps in the Navy's fleet as it transitions from its current configuration to its future end-state vision. It also provides a visualisation of project timings in terms of the decision gates (approval, service release) and specific phases (proposal, contract, delivery) together with how these projects are rated against the key performance indicators relating to the technology acquisition process and associated management activities. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

A framework for distributed intelligent automation systems developments

This chapter proposes a simple and pragmatic framework that has been developed for classifying and analyzing developments in distributed automation and information systems - especially those that have been labelled intelligent systems for different reasons. The framework dissects the different stages in the standard feedback process and assesses distribution in terms of the level of granularity of the organization that is being considered. The framework has been found to be useful in comparing and assessing different distributed industrial control paradigms and also for examining common features of different development projects - especially those that might be sourced from different sectors or domains. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.

Framework for integration of informal waste management sector with the formal sector in Pakistan

Historically, waste pickers around the globe have utilised urban solid waste as a principal source of livelihood. Formal waste management sectors usually perceive the informal waste collection/recycling networks as backward, unhygienic and generally incompatible with modern waste management systems. It is proposed here that through careful planning and administration, these seemingly troublesome informal networks can be integrated into formal waste management systems in developing countries, providing mutual benefits. A theoretical framework for integration based on a case study in Lahore, Pakistan, is presented. The proposed solution suggests that the municipal authority should draw up and agree on a formal work contract with the group of waste pickers already operating in the area. The proposed system is assessed using the integration radar framework to classify and analyse possible intervention points between the sectors. The integration of the informal waste workers with the formal waste management sector is not a one dimensional or single step process. An ideal solution might aim for a balanced focus on all four categories of intervention, although this may be influenced by local conditions. Not all the positive benefits will be immediately apparent, but it is expected that as the acceptance of such projects increases over time, the informal recycling economy will financially supplement the formal system in many ways. © The Author(s) 2013.

Growing process of CdS nanoclusters in zeolite Y studied by positron annihilation

Zeolite Y has been used as the host to generate CdS nanoclusters. The location of CdS nanoclusters inside zeolite hosts was confirmed by the blue-shifted reflection absorption spectra with respect to that of bulk CdS materials. But which kind of cage inside zeolite Y, sodalite cage or supercage, was preferred for the CdS clusters remained unclear. In this paper, we conducted positron annihilation spectroscopy (PAS) measurements for the first time on a series of CdS/Y zeolite samples and concluded that CdS clusters were not located in supercages but in smaller sodalite cages. The stability of CdS clusters inside the sodalite units was due to the coordination of Cd atoms with the framework oxygen atoms of the double six-ring windows. Moreover, PAS revealed some important information of surface states existing on the interfacial layers between CdS clusters and zeolite Y. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B,V, All rights reserved.

Study on the Dissociation Behavior of Gas Hydrate in Porous Sediment Based on Fractal Theory

The dissociation process of gas hydrate was regarded as a gas-solid reaction without solid production layer when the temperature was above the zero centigrade. Based on the shrinking core model and the fractal theory, a fractional dimension dynamical model for gas hydrate dissociation in porous sediment was established. The new approach of evaluating the fractal dimension of the porous media was also presented. The fractional dimension dynamical model for gas hydrate dissociation was examined with the previous experimental data of methane hydrate and carbon dioxide hydrate dissociations, respectively. The calculated results indicate that the fractal dimensions of porous media acquired with this method agree well with the previous study. With the absolute average deviation (AAD) below 10%, the present model provided satisfactory predictions for the dissociation process of methane hydrate and carbon dioxide hydrate.