833 resultados para Probabilistic methodology
Resumo:
Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a well-established method for geophysical characterization and has shown potential for monitoring geologic CO2 sequestration, due to its sensitivity to electrical resistivity contrasts generated by liquid/gas saturation variability. In contrast to deterministic inversion approaches, probabilistic inversion provides the full posterior probability density function of the saturation field and accounts for the uncertainties inherent in the petrophysical parameters relating the resistivity to saturation. In this study, the data are from benchtop ERT experiments conducted during gas injection into a quasi-2D brine-saturated sand chamber with a packing that mimics a simple anticlinal geological reservoir. The saturation fields are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of the measured data and compared to independent saturation measurements from light transmission through the chamber. Different model parameterizations are evaluated in terms of the recovered saturation and petrophysical parameter values. The saturation field is parameterized (1) in Cartesian coordinates, (2) by means of its discrete cosine transform coefficients, and (3) by fixed saturation values in structural elements whose shape and location is assumed known or represented by an arbitrary Gaussian Bell structure. Results show that the estimated saturation fields are in overall agreement with saturations measured by light transmission, but differ strongly in terms of parameter estimates, parameter uncertainties and computational intensity. Discretization in the frequency domain (as in the discrete cosine transform parameterization) provides more accurate models at a lower computational cost compared to spatially discretized (Cartesian) models. A priori knowledge about the expected geologic structures allows for non-discretized model descriptions with markedly reduced degrees of freedom. Constraining the solutions to the known injected gas volume improved estimates of saturation and parameter values of the petrophysical relationship. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This study presents an innovative methodology for forensic science image analysis for event reconstruction. The methodology is based on experiences from real cases. It provides real added value to technical guidelines such as standard operating procedures (SOPs) and enriches the community of practices at stake in this field. This bottom-up solution outlines the many facets of analysis and the complexity of the decision-making process. Additionally, the methodology provides a backbone for articulating more detailed and technical procedures and SOPs. It emerged from a grounded theory approach; data from individual and collective interviews with eight Swiss and nine European forensic image analysis experts were collected and interpreted in a continuous, circular and reflexive manner. Throughout the process of conducting interviews and panel discussions, similarities and discrepancies were discussed in detail to provide a comprehensive picture of practices and points of view and to ultimately formalise shared know-how. Our contribution sheds light on the complexity of the choices, actions and interactions along the path of data collection and analysis, enhancing both the researchers' and participants' reflexivity.
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The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.
Resumo:
This paper describes an evaluation framework that allows a standardized and quantitative comparison of IVUS lumen and media segmentation algorithms. This framework has been introduced at the MICCAI 2011 Computing and Visualization for (Intra)Vascular Imaging (CVII) workshop, comparing the results of eight teams that participated. We describe the available data-base comprising of multi-center, multi-vendor and multi-frequency IVUS datasets, their acquisition, the creation of the reference standard and the evaluation measures. The approaches address segmentation of the lumen, the media, or both borders; semi- or fully-automatic operation; and 2-D vs. 3-D methodology. Three performance measures for quantitative analysis have been proposed. The results of the evaluation indicate that segmentation of the vessel lumen and media is possible with an accuracy that is comparable to manual annotation when semi-automatic methods are used, as well as encouraging results can be obtained also in case of fully-automatic segmentation. The analysis performed in this paper also highlights the challenges in IVUS segmentation that remains to be solved.
Resumo:
The GH-2000 and GH-2004 projects have developed a method for detecting GH misuse based on measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen (P-III-NP). The objectives were to analyze more samples from elite athletes to improve the reliability of the decision limit estimates, to evaluate whether the existing decision limits needed revision, and to validate further non-radioisotopic assays for these markers. The study included 998 male and 931 female elite athletes. Blood samples were collected according to World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) guidelines at various sporting events including the 2011 International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Athletics Championships in Daegu, South Korea. IGF-I was measured by the Immunotech A15729 IGF-I IRMA, the Immunodiagnostic Systems iSYS IGF-I assay and a recently developed mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method. P-III-NP was measured by the Cisbio RIA-gnost P-III-P, Orion UniQ? PIIINP RIA and Siemens ADVIA Centaur P-III-NP assays. The GH-2000 score decision limits were developed using existing statistical techniques. Decision limits were determined using a specificity of 99.99% and an allowance for uncertainty because of the finite sample size. The revised Immunotech IGF-I - Orion P-III-NP assay combination decision limit did not change significantly following the addition of the new samples. The new decision limits are applied to currently available non-radioisotopic assays to measure IGF-I and P-III-NP in elite athletes, which should allow wider flexibility to implement the GH-2000 marker test for GH misuse while providing some resilience against manufacturer withdrawal or change of assays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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BACKGROUND: Developing and updating high-quality guidelines requires substantial time and resources. To reduce duplication of effort and enhance efficiency, we developed a process for guideline adaptation and assessed initial perceptions of its feasibility and usefulness. METHODS: Based on preliminary developments and empirical studies, a series of meetings with guideline experts were organised to define a process for guideline adaptation (ADAPTE) and to develop a manual and a toolkit made available on a website (http://www.adapte.org). Potential users, guideline developers and implementers, were invited to register and to complete a questionnaire evaluating their perception about the proposed process.
Resumo:
In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.
Resumo:
Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) is the key metric of operational excellence. OEE monitors the actual performance of equipment relative to its performance capabilities under optimal manufacturing conditions. It looks at the entire manufacturing environment measuring, in addition to the equipment availability, the production efficiency while the equipment is available to run products, as well as the efficiency loss that results from scrap, rework, and yield losses. The analysis of the OEE provides improvement opportunities for the operation. One of the tools used for OEE improvement is Six Sigma DMAIC methodology which is a set of practices originally developed to improve processes by eliminating defects. It asserts the continuous efforts to reduce variation in process outputs as key to business success, as well as the possibility of measurement, analysis, improvement and control of manufacturing and business processes. In the case of the Bottomer line AD2378 in Papsac Maghreb Casablanca plant, the OEE figures reached 48.65 %, which is below the accepted OEE group performance. This required immediate actions to achieve OEE improvement. This Master thesis focuses on the application of Six Sigma DMAIC methodology in the OEE improvement on the Bottomer Line AD2378 in Papsac Maghreb Casablanca plant. First, the Six Sigma DMAIC and OEE usage in operation measurement will be discussed. Afterwards, the different DMAIC phases will allow the identification of improvement focus, the identification of OEE low performance causes and the design of improvement solutions. These will be implemented to allow further tracking of improvement impact on the plant operations.
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Ever since the inception of economics over two hundred years ago, the tools at the discipline's disposal have grown more and more more sophisticated. This book provides a historical introduction to the methodology of economics through the eyes of economists. The story begins with John Stuart Mill's seminal essay from 1836 on the definition and method of political economy, which is then followed by an examination of how the actual practices of economists changed over time to such an extent that they not only altered their methods of enquiry, but also their self-perception as economists. Beginning as intellectuals and journalists operating to a large extent in the public sphere, they then transformed into experts who developed their tools of research increasingly behind the scenes. No longer did they try to influence policy agendas through public discourse; rather they targeted policymakers directly and with instruments that showed them as independent and objective policy advisors, the tools of the trade changing all the while. In order to shed light on this evolution of economic methodology, this book takes carefully selected snapshots from the discipline's history. It tracks the process of development through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, analysing the growth of empirical and mathematical modelling. It also looks at the emergence of the experiment in economics, in addition to the similarities and differences between modelling and experimentation. This book will be relevant reading for students and academics in the fields of economic methodology, history of economics, and history and philosophy of the social sciences.
Resumo:
The Faculty of Business and Communication recently started an internationalization process that, in two year’s time, will allow all undergraduate students (studying Journalism, Audiovisual Communication, Advertising and Public Relations, Business and Marketing) to take 25% of their subjects in English using CLIL methodology. Currently, Journalism is the degree course with the greatest percentage of CLIL subjects, for example Current Affairs Workshop, a subject dedicated to analyzing current news using opinion genres. Moreover, because of the lack of other subjects offered in English, ERASMUS students have to take some journalism subjects in order to complete their international passport, and one of the classes they choose is the Current Affairs Workshop. The aim of this paper is to explore how CLIL methodology can be useful for learning journalistic opinion genres (chat-shows, discussions and debates) in a subject where Catalan Communication students –with different levels of English- share their knowledge with European students of other social disciplines. Students work in multidisciplinary groups in which they develop real radio and TV programs, adopting all the roles (moderator, technician, producer and participants), analyzing daily newspapers and other sources to create content, based on current affairs. This paper is based on the participant observation of the lecturers of the subject, who have designed different activities related to journalistic genres, where students can develop their skills according to the role they play in every assignment. Examples of successful lessons will be given, in addition to the results of the course: both positive and negative. Although the objective of the course is to examine professional routines related to opinion genres, and students are not directly graded on their level of English, the Catalan students come to appreciate how they finally overcome their fear of working in a foreign language. This is a basic result of their experience.
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L’aprenentatge de la llengua anglesa com a llengua estrangera és una oportunitat que cada vegada més escoles de Catalunya presenten a l’etapa d’educació Infantil. La metodologia utilitzada per introduir aquesta llengua és variada en cada cas. Aquesta recerca es centra en l’estudi de l’ús de tècniques dramàtiques com a metodologia per ensenyar anglès a infantil. A partir d’un qüestionari contestat per 129 professors d’anglès de Catalunya s’ha analitzat la percepció que tenen sobre les tècniques dramàtiques i la seva utilització. Els resultats mostren una manca de coneixement general sobre la metodologia.