Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models

We propose a method to estimate time invariant cyclical DSGE models using the informationprovided by a variety of filters. We treat data filtered with alternative procedures as contaminated proxies of the relevant model-based quantities and estimate structural and non-structuralparameters jointly using a signal extraction approach. We employ simulated data to illustratethe properties of the procedure and compare our conclusions with those obtained when just onefilter is used. We revisit the role of money in the transmission of monetary business cycles.

Minimum distance estimation of stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA processes

A new parametric minimum distance time-domain estimator for ARFIMA processes is introduced in this paper. The proposed estimator minimizes the sum of squared correlations of residuals obtained after filtering a series through ARFIMA parameters. The estimator iseasy to compute and is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed for fractionallyintegrated (FI) processes with an integration order d strictly greater than -0.75. Therefore, it can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Deterministic components are also allowed in the DGP. Furthermore, as a by-product, the estimation procedure provides an immediate check on the adequacy of the specified model. This is so because the criterion function, when evaluated at the estimated values, coincides with the Box-Pierce goodness of fit statistic. Empirical applications and Monte-Carlo simulations supporting the analytical results and showing the good performance of the estimator in finite samples are also provided.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

Convergence in panel data: Evidence from the skipping estimation

This paper demonstrates that, unlike what the conventional wisdom says, measurement error biases in panel data estimation of convergence using OLS with fixed effects are huge, not trivial. It does so by way of the "skipping estimation"': taking data from every m years of the sample (where m is an integer greater than or equal to 2), as opposed to every single year. It is shown that the estimated speed of convergence from the OLS with fixed effects is biased upwards by as much as 7 to 15%.

Quantitative estimation of foot-flat and stance phase of gait using foot-worn inertial sensors.

Time periods composing stance phase of gait can be clinically meaningful parameters to reveal differences between normal and pathological gait. This study aimed, first, to describe a novel method for detecting stance and inner-stance temporal events based on foot-worn inertial sensors; second, to extract and validate relevant metrics from those events; and third, to investigate their suitability as clinical outcome for gait evaluations. 42 subjects including healthy subjects and patients before and after surgical treatments for ankle osteoarthritis performed 50-m walking trials while wearing foot-worn inertial sensors and pressure insoles as a reference system. Several hypotheses were evaluated to detect heel-strike, toe-strike, heel-off, and toe-off based on kinematic features. Detected events were compared with the reference system on 3193 gait cycles and showed good accuracy and precision. Absolute and relative stance periods, namely loading response, foot-flat, and push-off were then estimated, validated, and compared statistically between populations. Besides significant differences observed in stance duration, the analysis revealed differing tendencies with notably a shorter foot-flat in healthy subjects. The result indicated which features in inertial sensors' signals should be preferred for detecting precisely and accurately temporal events against a reference standard. The system is suitable for clinical evaluations and provides temporal analysis of gait beyond the common swing/stance decomposition, through a quantitative estimation of inner-stance phases such as foot-flat.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is notstationary along the unemployment spell and where jobs do not lastforever. Under this circumstance, reservation wages can be lower thanwithout separations, as in a stationary environment, but they can alsobe initially higher because of the non-stationarity of the model. Moreover,the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than with noseparations. The model is estimated structurally using Spanish data forthe period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although the decrease inreservation wages is the main determinant of the change in the exit ratefrom unemployment for the first four months, later on the only effect comesfrom the job offer arrival rate, given that acceptance probabilities areroughly equal to one.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Biomass estimation of Triplectides egleri Sattler (Trichoptera, Leptoceridae) in a stream at Ducke Reserve, Central Amazonia

ABSTRACT Biomass is a fundamental measure for understanding the structure and functioning (e.g. fluxes of energy and nutrients in the food chain) of aquatic ecosystems. We aim to provide predictive models to estimate the biomass of Triplectides egleri Sattler, 1963, in a stream in Central Amazonia, based on body and case dimensions. We used body length, head-capsule width, interocular distance and case length and width to derive biomass estimations. Linear, exponential and power regression models were used to assess the relationship between biomass and body or case dimensions. All regression models used in the biomass estimation of T. egleri were significant. The best fit between biomass and body or case dimensions was obtained using the power model, followed by the exponential and linear models. Body length provided the best estimate of biomass. However, the dimensions of sclerotized structures (interocular distance and head-capsule width) also provided good biomass predictions, and may be useful in estimating biomass of preserved and/or damaged material. Case width was the dimension of the case that provided the best estimate of biomass. Despite the low relation, case width may be useful in studies that require low stress on individuals.

Scaling of semivariograms and the kriging estimation of field-measured properties

Two methods were evaluated for scaling a set of semivariograms into a unified function for kriging estimation of field-measured properties. Scaling is performed using sample variances and sills of individual semivariograms as scale factors. Theoretical developments show that kriging weights are independent of the scaling factor which appears simply as a constant multiplying both sides of the kriging equations. The scaling techniques were applied to four sets of semivariograms representing spatial scales of 30 x 30 m to 600 x 900 km. Experimental semivariograms in each set successfully coalesced into a single curve by variances and sills of individual semivariograms. To evaluate the scaling techniques, kriged estimates derived from scaled semivariogram models were compared with those derived from unscaled models. Differences in kriged estimates of the order of 5% were found for the cases in which the scaling technique was not successful in coalescing the individual semivariograms, which also means that the spatial variability of these properties is different. The proposed scaling techniques enhance interpretation of semivariograms when a variety of measurements are made at the same location. They also reduce computational times for kriging estimations because kriging weights only need to be calculated for one variable. Weights remain unchanged for all other variables in the data set whose semivariograms are scaled.

Dense deformation field estimation for atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images.

Atlas registration is a recognized paradigm for the automatic segmentation of normal MR brain images. Unfortunately, atlas-based segmentation has been of limited use in presence of large space-occupying lesions. In fact, brain deformations induced by such lesions are added to normal anatomical variability and they may dramatically shift and deform anatomically or functionally important brain structures. In this work, we chose to focus on the problem of inter-subject registration of MR images with large tumors, inducing a significant shift of surrounding anatomical structures. First, a brief survey of the existing methods that have been proposed to deal with this problem is presented. This introduces the discussion about the requirements and desirable properties that we consider necessary to be fulfilled by a registration method in this context: To have a dense and smooth deformation field and a model of lesion growth, to model different deformability for some structures, to introduce more prior knowledge, and to use voxel-based features with a similarity measure robust to intensity differences. In a second part of this work, we propose a new approach that overcomes some of the main limitations of the existing techniques while complying with most of the desired requirements above. Our algorithm combines the mathematical framework for computing a variational flow proposed by Hermosillo et al. [G. Hermosillo, C. Chefd'Hotel, O. Faugeras, A variational approach to multi-modal image matching, Tech. Rep., INRIA (February 2001).] with the radial lesion growth pattern presented by Bach et al. [M. Bach Cuadra, C. Pollo, A. Bardera, O. Cuisenaire, J.-G. Villemure, J.-Ph. Thiran, Atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images using a model of lesion growth, IEEE Trans. Med. Imag. 23 (10) (2004) 1301-1314.]. Results on patients with a meningioma are visually assessed and compared to those obtained with the most similar method from the state-of-the-art.

MSISpIC: A Probabilistic Scan Matching Algorithm Using a Mechanical Scanned Imaging Sonar

This paper compares two well known scan matching algorithms: the MbICP and the pIC. As a result of the study, it is proposed the MSISpIC, a probabilistic scan matching algorithm for the localization of an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV). The technique uses range scans gathered with a Mechanical Scanning Imaging Sonar (MSIS), and the robot displacement estimated through dead-reckoning with the help of a Doppler Velocity Log (DVL) and a Motion Reference Unit (MRU). The proposed method is an extension of the pIC algorithm. Its major contribution consists in: 1) using an EKF to estimate the local path traveled by the robot while grabbing the scan as well as its uncertainty and 2) proposing a method to group into a unique scan, with a convenient uncertainty model, all the data grabbed along the path described by the robot. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600m path within a marina environment with satisfactory results

Chemical labelling of oyster shells used for time-calibrated high-resolution Mg/Ca ratios: A tool for estimation of past seasonal temperature variations

The geochemical compositions of biogenic carbonates are increasingly used for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. The skeletal delta O-18 temperature relationship is dependent on water salinity, so many recent studies have focused on the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios because those ratios in water do not change significantly on short time scales. Thus, those elemental ratios are considered to be good palaeotemperature proxies in many biominerals, although their use remains ambiguous in bivalve shells. Here, we present the high-resolution Mg/Ca ratios of two modern species of juvenile and adult oyster shells, Crassostrea gigas and Ostrea edulis. These specimens were grown in controlled conditions for over one year in two different locations. In situ monthly Mn-marking of the shells has been used for day calibration. The daily Mg/Ca.ratios in the shell have been measured with an electron microprobe. The high frequency Mg/Ca variation of all specimens displays good synchronism with lunar cycles, suggesting that tides strongly influence the incorporation of Mg/Ca into the shells. Highly significant correlation coefficients (0.70<R<0.83, p<0.0001) between the Mg/Ca ratios and the seawater temperature are obtained only for juvenile C. gigas samples, while metabolic control of Mg/Ca incorporation and lower shell growth rates preclude the use of the Mg/Ca ratio in adult shells as a palaeothermometer. Data from three juvenile C. gigas shells from the two study sites are selected to establish a relationship: T = 3.77Mg/Ca + 1.88, where T is in degrees C and Mg/Ca in mmol/mol. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of surface roughness in a semiarid region from C-band ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar data

In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using the C-band European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to estimate surface soil roughness in a semiarid rangeland. Radar backscattering coefficients were extracted from a dry and a wet season SAR image and were compared with 47 in situ soil roughness measurements obtained in the rocky soils of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, southeastern Arizona, USA. Both the dry and the wet season SAR data showed exponential relationships with root mean square (RMS) height measurements. The dry C-band ERS-1 SAR data were strongly correlated (R² = 0.80), while the wet season SAR data have somewhat higher secondary variation (R² = 0.59). This lower correlation was probably provoked by the stronger influence of soil moisture, which may not be negligible in the wet season SAR data. We concluded that the single configuration C-band SAR data is useful to estimate surface roughness of rocky soils in a semiarid rangeland.