Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

Pseudodominant Inheritance of Goitrous Congenital Hypothyroidism Caused by TPO Mutations: Molecular and in Silico Studies

Context and Objective: Most cases of goitrous congenital hypothyroidism (CH) from thyroid dyshormonogenesis 1) follow a recessive mode of inheritance and 2) are due to mutations in the thyroid peroxidase gene (TPO). We report the genetic mechanism underlying the apparently dominant inheritance of goitrous CH in a nonconsanguineous family of French Canadian origin. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two brothers identified by newborn TSH screening had severe hypothyroidism and a goiter with increased (99m)Tc uptake. The mother was euthyroid, but the father and two paternal uncles had also been diagnosed with goitrous CH. After having excluded PAX8 gene mutations, we hypothesized that the underlying defect could be TPO mutations. Results: Both compound heterozygous siblings had inherited a mutant TPO allele carried by their mother (c.1496delC; p.Pro499Argfs2X), and from their father, one brother had inherited a missense mutation (c.1978C-->G; p.Gln660Glu) and the other an insertion (c.1955insT; p.Phe653Valfs15X). The thyroid gland of one uncle who is a compound heterozygote for TPO mutations (p.Phe653Valfs15X/p.Gln660Glu) was removed because of concurrent multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2A. Immunohistochemistry revealed normal TPO staining, implying that Gln660Glu TPO is expressed properly. Modeling of this mutant in silico suggests that its three-dimensional structure is conserved, whereas the electrostatic binding energy between the Gln660Glu TPO and its heme group becomes repulsive. Conclusion: We report a pedigree presenting with pseudodominant goitrous CH due to segregation of three different TPO mutations. Although goitrous CH generally follows a recessive mode of inheritance, the high frequency of TPO mutations carriers may lead to pseudodominant inheritance.

[Radiation burden of organs in fluoroscopic studies]

Various conventional and modern fluoroscope units had been examined with an anthropomorphic phantom to determine the applied average organ doses. The aim of our investigation was to compare these doses with those normally delivered to the patients during a conventional X-ray examination of the thorax. As was to be expected, the doses resulting from conventional fluoroscopic units are much higher than the doses from modern units. As shown by means of our measurements, the efforts of advanced technology permit to reduce the dose rate up to a factor of 30. I.e., the doses resulting from modern fluoroscopic units are even smaller than the doses received during a conventional thoracic X-ray examination, what means a great improvement for this examination technic.

Multivariable adjustments counteract spectrum and test review bias in accuracy studies

OBJECTIVES: The STAndards for Reporting studies of Diagnostic accuracy (STARD) for investigators and editors and the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) for reviewers and readers offer guidelines for the quality and reporting of test accuracy studies. These guidelines address and propose some solutions to two major threats to validity: spectrum bias and test review bias. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Using a clinical example, we demonstrate that these solutions fail and propose an alternative solution that concomitantly addresses both sources of bias. We also derive formulas that prove the generality of our arguments. RESULTS: A logical extension of our ideas is to extend STARD item 23 by adding a requirement for multivariable statistical adjustment using information collected in QUADAS items 1, 2, and 12 and STARD items 3-5, 11, 15, and 18. CONCLUSION: We recommend reporting not only variation of diagnostic accuracy across subgroups (STARD item 23) but also the effects of the multivariable adjustments on test performance. We also suggest that the QUADAS be supplemented by an item addressing the appropriateness of statistical methods, in particular whether multivariable adjustments have been included in the analysis.

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

An Innovative Family Preservation Program in an African American Community: Longitudinal Analysis

This paper presents a secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal evaluation of a community-based family preservation program in Portland, Oregon, designed for and by African Americans. Families served by the Family Enhancement Program (FEP) resemble chronically neglecting families in terms of numbers of children and length of contact with child protective services. Six- and twelve-month follow-ups for FEP clients were compared to data on families served by the Oregon State Office of Services to Children and Families (SOSCF). The author found that FEP families are more likely than SOSCFfamilies to show greater improvement between the pretest scores and the posttest scores for number of days in placement, number of placements, and number of founded maltreatment reports.

Population genetics of VNTR loci and their applications in evolutionary studies

Variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) are genetic loci at which short sequence motifs are found repeated different numbers of times among chromosomes. To explore the potential utility of VNTR loci in evolutionary studies, I have conducted a series of studies to address the following questions: (1) What are the population genetic properties of these loci? (2) What are the mutational mechanisms of repeat number change at these loci? (3) Can DNA profiles be used to measure the relatedness between a pair of individuals? (4) Can DNA fingerprint be used to measure the relatedness between populations in evolutionary studies? (5) Can microsatellite and short tandem repeat (STR) loci which mutate stepwisely be used in evolutionary analyses?^ A large number of VNTR loci typed in many populations were studied by means of statistical methods developed recently. The results of this work indicate that there is no significant departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectation (HWE) at VNTR loci in most of the human populations examined, and the departure from HWE in some VNTR loci are not solely caused by the presence of population sub-structure.^ A statistical procedure is developed to investigate the mutational mechanisms of VNTR loci by studying the allele frequency distributions of these loci. Comparisons of frequency distribution data on several hundreds VNTR loci with the predictions of two mutation models demonstrated that there are differences among VNTR loci grouped by repeat unit sizes.^ By extending the ITO method, I derived the distribution of the number of shared bands between individuals with any kinship relationship. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is proposed to estimate the relatedness between individuals from the observed number of shared bands between them.^ It was believed that classical measures of genetic distance are not applicable to analysis of DNA fingerprints which reveal many minisatellite loci simultaneously in the genome, because the information regarding underlying alleles and loci is not available. I proposed a new measure of genetic distance based on band sharing between individuals that is applicable to DNA fingerprint data.^ To address the concern that microsatellite and STR loci may not be useful for evolutionary studies because of the convergent nature of their mutation mechanisms, by a theoretical study as well as by computer simulation, I conclude that the possible bias caused by the convergent mutations can be corrected, and a novel measure of genetic distance that makes the correction is suggested. In summary, I conclude that hypervariable VNTR loci are useful in evolutionary studies of closely related populations or species, especially in the study of human evolution and the history of geographic dispersal of Homo sapiens. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

A process evaluation of the childhood lead poisoning prevention program in Houston, Texas, 1992--1995

A process evaluation of the Houston Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention Program, 1992-1995, was conducted. The Program's goal is to reduce lead poisoning prevalence. The study proposed to determine to what extent the Program was implemented as planned by measuring how well Program services were actually: (1) received by the intended target population; (2) delivered to children with elevated blood lead levels; (3) delivered in compliance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Program guidelines and timetables; and (4) able to reduce lead poisoning prevalence among those rescreened. Utilizing a program monitoring design, the Program's pre-collected computer records were reviewed. The study sample consisted of 820 children whose blood lead levels were above 15 micrograms per deciLiter, representing approximately 2.9% of the 28,406 screened over this period. Three blood lead levels from each participant were examined: the initial elevated result; the confirmatory result; and the next rescreen result, after the elevated confirmatory level. Results showed that the Program screened approximately 18% (28,406 of 161,569) of Houston's children under age 6 years for lead poisoning. Based on Chi-square tests of significance, results also showed that lead-poisoned participants were more likely to be younger than 3 years, male and Hispanic, compared to those not lead poisoned. The age, gender and ethnic differences observed were statistically significant (p =.01, p =.00, p =.00). Four of the six Program services: medical evaluations, rescreening, environmental inspections and confirmation, had satisfactory delivery completion rates of 71%-98%. Delivery timetable compliance rates for three of the six services examined: outreach contacts, home visits and environmental inspections were below 32%. However, dangerously elevated blood lead levels fell and lead poisoning prevalence dropped from 3.3% at initial screening to 1.2% among those rescreened, after intervention. From a public health perspective, reductions in lead poisoning prevalence are very meaningful. Based on these findings, the following are recommendations for future research: (1) integrate Program database files by utilizing a computer database management program; (2) target services at Hispanic male children under age 3 years living in the highest risk neighborhoods; (3) increase resources to: improve tracking and documentation of service delivery and provide more non-medical case management and environmental services; and (4) share the evaluation methodology/findings with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention administrators; the implications may be relevant to other program managers conducting such assessments. ^