The genetic effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes over a tropical latitudinal gradient: diversification of an Atlantic Forest passerine

The increase in biodiversity from high to low latitudes is a widely recognized biogeographical pattern. According to the latitudinal gradient hypothesis (LGH), this pattern was shaped by differential effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes across a latitudinal gradient. Here, we evaluate the effects of climatic changes across a tropical latitudinal gradient and its implications to diversification of an Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic passerine. We studied the intraspecific diversification and historical demography of Sclerurus scansor, based on mitochondrial (ND2, ND3 and cytb) and nuclear (FIB7) gene sequences. Phylogenetic analyses recovered three well-supported clades associated with distinct latitudinal zones. Coalescent-based methods were applied to estimate divergence times and changes in effective population sizes. Estimates of divergence times indicate that intraspecific diversification took place during Middle-Late Pleistocene. Distinct demographic scenarios were identified, with the southern lineage exhibiting a clear signature of demographic expansion, while the central one remained more stable. The northern lineage, contrasting with LGH predictions, exhibited a clear sign of a recent bottleneck. Our results suggest that different AF regions reacted distinctly, even in opposite ways, under the same climatic period, producing simultaneously favourable scenarios for isolation and contact among populations.

Phylogeography and evolutionary history of dengue virus type 3

In this study, we revisited the phylogeography of the three of major DENV-3 genotypes and estimated its rate of evolution, based on the analysis of the envelope (E) gene of 200 strains isolated from 31 different countries around the world over a time period of 50 years (1956-2006). Our phylogenetic analysis revealed a geographical subdivision of DENV-3 population in several country-specific clades. Migration patterns of the main DENV-3 genotypes showed that genotype I was mainly circumspect to the maritime portion of Southeast-Asia and South Pacific, genotype 11 stayed within continental areas in South-East Asia, while genotype III spread across Asia, East Africa and into the Americas. No evidence for rampant co-circulation of distinct genotypes in a single locality was found, suggesting that some factors, other than geographic proximity, may limit the continual dispersion and reintroduction of new DENV-3 variants. Estimates of the evolutionary rate revealed no significant differences among major DENV-3 genotypes. The mean evolutionary rate of DENV-3 in areas with long-term endemic transmissions (i.e., Indonesia and Thailand) was similar to that observed in the Americas, which have been experiencing a more recent dengue spread. We estimated the origin of DENV-3 virus around 1890, and the emergence of current diversity of main DENV-3 genotypes between the middle 1960s and the middle 1970s, coinciding with human population growth, urbanization, and massive human movement, and with the description of the first cases of DENV-3 hemorrhagic fever in Asia. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Multi-Objective Optimization To Maximize Multiple Benefits For Sustainable Drainage Design

For many years, drainage design was mainly about providing sufficient network capacity. This traditional approach had been successful with the aid of computer software and technical guidance. However, the drainage design criteria had been evolving due to rapid population growth, urbanisation, climate change and increasing sustainability awareness. Sustainable drainage systems that bring benefits in addition to water management have been recommended as better alternatives to conventional pipes and storages. Although the concepts and good practice guidance had already been communicated to decision makers and public for years, network capacity still remains a key design focus in many circumstances while the additional benefits are generally considered secondary only. Yet, the picture is changing. The industry begins to realise that delivering multiple benefits should be given the top priority while the drainage service can be considered a secondary benefit instead. The shift in focus means the industry has to adapt to new design challenges. New guidance and computer software are needed to assist decision makers. For this purpose, we developed a new decision support system. The system consists of two main components – a multi-criteria evaluation framework for drainage systems and a multi-objective optimisation tool. Users can systematically quantify the performance, life-cycle costs and benefits of different drainage systems using the evaluation framework. The optimisation tool can assist users to determine combinations of design parameters such as the sizes, order and type of drainage components that maximise multiple benefits. In this paper, we will focus on the optimisation component of the decision support framework. The optimisation problem formation, parameters and general configuration will be discussed. We will also look at the sensitivity of individual variables and the benchmark results obtained using common multi-objective optimisation algorithms. The work described here is the output of an EngD project funded by EPSRC and XP Solutions.

Evaluating And Optimizing Sustainable Drainage Design To Maximize Multiple Benefits: Case Studies In China

In the past, the focus of drainage design was on sizing pipes and storages in order to provide sufficient network capacity. This traditional approach, together with computer software and technical guidance, had been successful for many years. However, due to rapid population growth and urbanisation, the requirements of a “good” drainage design have also changed significantly. In addition to water management, other aspects such as environmental impacts, amenity values and carbon footprint have to be considered during the design process. Going forward, we need to address the key sustainability issues carefully and practically. The key challenge of moving from simple objectives (e.g. capacity and costs) to complicated objectives (e.g. capacity, flood risk, environment, amenity etc) is the difficulty to strike a balance between various objectives and to justify potential benefits and compromises. In order to assist decision makers, we developed a new decision support system for drainage design. The system consists of two main components – a multi-criteria evaluation framework for drainage systems and a multi-objective optimisation tool. The evaluation framework is used for the quantification of performance, life-cycle costs and benefits of different drainage systems. The optimisation tool can search for feasible combinations of design parameters such as the sizes, order and type of drainage components that maximise multiple benefits. In this paper, we will discuss real-world application of the decision support system. A number of case studies have been developed based on recent drainage projects in China. We will use the case studies to illustrate how the evaluation framework highlights and compares the pros and cons of various design options. We will also discuss how the design parameters can be optimised based on the preferences of decision makers. The work described here is the output of an EngD project funded by EPSRC and XP Solutions.

Malthus to Solow

A unified growth theory is developed that accounts for the roughly constant living standards displayed by world economies prior to 1800 as well as the growing living standards exhibited by modem industrial economies. Our theory also explains the industrial revolution, which is the transition from an era when per capita incomes are stagnant to one with sustained growth. This transition is inevitable given positive rates oftotal factor productivity growth. We use a standard growth mode1 with one good and two available techno10gies. The first, denoted the "Malthus" technology, requires 1and, labor and reproducible capital as inputs. The second, denoted the "Solow" technology, does not require land. We show that in the earIy stages of development, only the Malthus technology is used and, due to population growth, living standards are stagnant despite technological progresso Eventually, technological progress causes the Solow technology to become profitable and both technologies are employed. At this point, living standards improve since population growth has less influence on per capita income growth. In the limit, the economy behaves like a standard Solow growth model.

The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

Competitividade no agronegócio: proposta de modelo para elaboração de estratégia de integração de cadeias para os defensivos agrícolas – o caso do café

A produção sustentável de alimentos é fundamental para suportar o crescimento populacional. Segundo estimativa da FAO, se a população atingir 9,1 bilhões de habitantes em 2050, a produção de alimentos deverá crescer 70%, e a produção nos países em desenvolvimento deverá dobrar. Ou seja, a maior parte do crescimento vem de países emergentes, onde se concentra o maior potencial de crescimento agrícola. Com o aumento populacional e o aumento da renda da população destes países emergentes, há aumento na demanda por produtos de melhor qualidade, fazendo com que o crescimento na produção de alimentos seja não somente de quantidade, mas também, de qualidade e valor. Portanto, a maior a exigência em termos de segurança do alimento, faz com que rastreabilidade e transparência com relação ao uso de tecnologias de produção se transformem em fatores que influenciam a aceitação de alimentos por parte dos consumidores do mercado doméstico e também de mercados internacionais. Neste contexto, o varejo ganha importância estratégica pela proximidade do seu negócio com o consumidor final. Ele é o primeiro elo da cadeia a receber informações sobre o cliente em termos de comportamento de compra e demandas, podendo assim, repassá-las aos outros elos da cadeia chegando até os produtores, que tem que ajustar suas práticas em geral, e principalmente, as práticas agronômicas, no que diz respeito à qualidade e a segurança do alimento. As empresas de insumos e as agroindústrias, que contribuem para uma produção agrícola sustentável terão a preferência dos produtores rurais e varejistas, que tem a missão de entregar produtos de qualidade, seguros, de forma conveniente para o consumidor final que é o elo capaz de movimentar a cadeia em uma única direção - a da agricultura sustentável. É neste contexto que as empresas de defensivos agrícolas devem desenvolver suas estratégias de negócio. Torna-se necessário ter maior “controle” sobre a cadeia, visando o uso correto de seus produtos, visando contribuir para a agricultura sustentável, ganhando participação de mercado e/ou aumentando sua rentabilidade. Para isso, algumas empresas têm desenvolvido estratégias de coordenação de cadeias, ou “food value chain”, com alguns casos exitosos. Neste trabalho, é proposta metodologia para o desenvolvimento e implementação de estratégias de “food value chain” para os defensivos agrícolas. Ao final do trabalho, conclui-se que existem ganhos importantes para a empresa que adota este tipo de estratégia; entretanto, há um aumento na complexidade da operação. Por isso, é uma escolha importante, que deve ser parte da missão da empresa.

Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Phylogenetic structure of Guinea-Bissau ethnic groups for mitochondrial DNA and Y chromosome genetic systems

The maternal and paternal genetic profile of Guineans is markedly sub-Saharan West African, with the majority of lineages belonging to L0-L3 mtDNA sub-clusters and E3a-M2 and E1-M33 Y chromosome haplogroups. Despite the sociocultural differences among Guinea-Bissau ethnic groups,marked by the supposedly strict admixture barriers, their genetic pool remains largely common. Their extant variation coalesces at distinct timeframes, from the initial occupation of the area to later inputs of people. Signs of recent expansion in mtDNA haplogroups L2a-L2c and NRY E3a-M2 suggest population growth in the equatorial western fringe, possibly supported by an early local agricultural centre, and to which the Mandenka and the Balanta people may relate. Non-West African signatures are traceable in less frequent extant haplogroups, fitting well with the linguistic and historical evidence regarding particular ethnic groups: the Papel and Felupe-Djola people retain traces of their putative East African relatives; U6 and M1b among Guinea-Bissau Bak-speakers indicate partial diffusion to Sahel of North African lineages; U5b1b lineages in Fulbe and Papel represent a link to North African Berbers, emphasizing the great importance of post-glacial expansions; exact matches of R1b-P25 and E3b1-M78 with Europeans likely trace back to the times of the slave trade.

Estudo do comportamento plástico, mecânico, microestrutural e térmico do concreto produzido com resíduo de porcelanato

Population growth experienced in major cities, allied to society s need of infra-structure, especially ones related to habitational demands, increases the consumption of construction materials. As a consequence, consumption of natural resources itself. Thus, due to this process, concrete is one of the most produced materials in civil construction. This is also due to the great diversity of its application, easiness in its execution and adequate mechanical performance, as well as low production costs. Following the same tendencies in construction development, the ceramic industry has intensified the production of porcelain ceramic tiles and floors. These are achieved by a fine finishing and receive polishing at the end of the fabrication process. This work researched the use of porcelain residues in polishing for the production of concrete. All of which; due to economical and environmental issues. This process aims to prove adequate destiny for this type of residue, due to environmental issues, incorporating it to the concrete itself; all of which provides economy in consumption of the materials that constitute concrete. Thus, the main characteristics of concrete were investigated through the inclusion of different concentration of the porcelain residue as additional trait element. The residue rates incorporated to the trait varied from 10% to 50% in relation to the cement mass, in the traits with plastic additives and without plastic additives. It is observed that the inclusion of porcelain residue produced a meaningful alteration in the consistency of fresh concrete. This residue has a fine granulometry and it considerably absorbed the water used in the concrete spreading, influencing the way this material is dealt with. Thus, the value of cement striking decreases with the increase of residues present in trait. The maximal incorporation of the residue was of 50%, massively, for the same factor water/initial cement. The use of residues in concrete results in an 40% increase in the compression resistance. It is also proportional to residue concentration of porcelain in the trait. The microstructure was also favored once porosity and concrete absorption decreases with the use of this residue. The parameters demonstrate the quality and durability of the concrete produced with this residue. The use of porcelain residue in concrete composition has not produced meaningful thermal behavior changes. Thermal conductivity, heat capacity and thermal diffusivity have been maintained basically constant

Efeitos de florações de cianobactérias sobre os cladóceros ceriodaphnia dubia e daphnia gessneri

Cyanobacterial blooms are common in eutrophic reservoirs in Brazilian northeastern semi-arid. Given this reality, the present study aimed to analyze the effect of potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms in Gargalheiras reservoir (semi-arid) on the cladocerans Ceriodaphnia dubia and Daphnia gessneri. In vitro chronic bioassays were performed with reservoir water dilutions from August/2011 to May/2012 and the following effects were evaluated on: intrinsic rate of population growth (r), reproductive parameters (age of first reproduction and fecundity per capita) and cladocerans movements. Phytoplankton was dominated by Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Planktothrix agardhii and saxitoxin and microcystin were detected in reservoir water. In most months C. dubia showed differences in r between control (absence of cyanobacteria) and treatments, and has shown negative effects on reproductive parameters. In all months paralysis of swimming movements was observed in C. dubia when both C. raciborskii and saxitoxin (cyanotoxin neurotoxic) were present in water. While C. dubia was sensitive to the reservoir water containing cyanobacteria, D. gessneri showed less intense negative effects in r and reproductive parameters. Furthermore, D. gessneri showed no paralysis of swimming movements. These results support the hypothesis in the literature that D. gessneri is resistant to the Cylindrospermopsis effects. The clone‟s life history may be a key to understand the results. The C. dubia clone, isolated from eutrophicated environment, is in the lab for ten years and it is an exotic species in Brazil. D. gessneri is a common species in the country and this clone was isolated from the Gargalheiras reservoir (where there are constant blooms of potentially toxic cyanobacteria) a year ago. Perhaps the recent contact with cyanobacteria explain the higher resistance presented by this D. gessneri clone. In conclusion, the cladocerans studied have different levels of sensitivity to cyanobacteria, characterizing species-specific responses

Exigências térmicas e tabelas de vida de fertilidade de Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) em laboratório

Este estudo visou determinar as exigências térmicas do pulgão Myzus persicae (Sulzer), calcular tabelas de vida de fertilidade, e prever a ocorrência de adultos no campo, por meio de modelo de graus-dia. Os pulgões foram mantidos individualmente em gaiolas fixadas em folhas de couve, Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala DC, em laboratório, às temperaturas de 15, 20, 23, 25 e 30ºC. O limite térmico inferior de desenvolvimento (Tb) e a constante térmica (K) foram 2,2ºC e 165,6 graus-dia, respectivamente. O modelo de graus-dia previu a ocorrência de adultos de M. persicae para 0 a1 dia antes da data em que eles foram observados no campo. Os parâmetros das tabelas de vida estimados na escala de tempo em graus-dia evidenciaram que as temperaturas de 23°C e 25°C foram as que proporcionaram as melhores condições térmicas para o crescimento populacional de M. persicae. Nessas temperaturas observou-se o maior valor da capacidade inata de aumentar em número (r m = 0,012), o menor valor da duração média da geração (T = 303,8 graus-dia e 272 graus-dia, respectivamente) e o menor tempo necessário para a população duplicar em número de indivíduos (TD = 57,8 graus-dia).

Emergência de Bidens pilosa em diferentes profundidades de semeadura

Bidens pilosa é uma das mais importantes plantas daninhas que ocorrem em lavouras anuais e perenes da região Centro-Sul do Brasil. A grande capacidade de produção de aquênios é uma das suas principais estratégias de sobrevivência, e o conhecimento das condições fundamentais para germinação e emergência das plântulas é essencial para predição do crescimento populacional e para a elaboração de plano de manejo de suas infestações e de seus biótipos resistentes aos herbicidas. Foram conduzidos ensaios em condições de casa de vegetação, onde foi avaliada a emergência de aquênios de B. pilosa em diferentes profundidades (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 e 5 cm). Os experimentos foram conduzidos nos meses de maio, agosto e novembro de 2006 e em março de 2007. Os resultados mostraram que a emergência de plântulas de picão-preto foi bastante afetada pela localização do aquênio no perfil do solo, ocorrendo expressiva redução a partir de 2 cm de profundidade. Essa característica da biologia reprodutiva do picão-preto é importante para a formação de densos bancos de sementes em solos submetidos ao preparo convencional, onde grande parte da chuva de sementes é nele incorporada.

Influência da Adubação Fosfatada - Potássica na Ocorrência de Pragas na Cultura da Soja

O estudo foi desenvolvido para se determinar o efeito da adubação fosfatada-potássica da soja sobre a ocorrência de insetos-praga. Os tratamentos constituíram um fatorial 4 x 4 (quatro doses de fósforo e quatro doses de potássio) com três repetições. Os níveis de fósforo utilizados foram, respectivamente (0, 80, 120 e 160 kg/ha) de P2O5 e (0, 40, 60 e 80 kg/ha) de K2O. Foram realizadas amostragens semanais a partir do estádio V2 da cultura, utilizando-se pano de amostragem. Os resultados indicaram uma tendência de aumento populacional de Piezodorus guildinii (Westwood) para as maiores doses dos nutrientes. A ocorrência de Diabrotica speciosa (Germar) foi correlacionada com alguns nutrientes das folhas.

Phylogeography and Pleistocene demographic history of the endangered marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from the Rio de la Plata Basin

The marsh deer is the largest neotropical cervid with morphological and ecological adaptations to wetlands and riparian habitats. Historically, this now endangered species occupied habitats along the major river basins in South America, ranging from southern Amazonia into northern Argentina to the Parana river delta. This particularly close association with wetlands makes marsh deer an excellent species for studying the effects of Pleistocene climatic changes on their demographic and phylogeographic patterns. We examined mitochondrial DNA variation in 127 marsh deer from 4 areas distributed throughout the Rio de]a Plata basin. We found 17 haplotypes in marsh deer from Brazil, Bolivia and Argentina that differed by 1-8 substitutions in a 601 bp fragment of mitochondrial control region sequence, and 486 bp of cytochrome b revealed only 3 variable sites that defined 4 haplotypes. Phylogeny and distribution of control region haplotypes suggest that populations close to the Pantanal area in central Brazil underwent a rapid population expansion and that this occurred approximately 28,000-25,000 years BP. Paleoclimatic data from this period suggests that there was a dramatic increase for precipitation in the medium latitudes in South America and these conditions may have fostered marsh deer's population growth.