Discrete distributions when modeling the disability severity score of motor victims

Many European states apply score systems to evaluate the disability severity of non-fatal motor victims under the law of third-party liability. The score is a non-negative integer with an upper bound at 100 that increases with severity. It may be automatically converted into financial terms and thus also reflects the compensation cost for disability. In this paper, discrete regression models are applied to analyze the factors that influence the disability severity score of victims. Standard and zero-altered regression models are compared from two perspectives: an interpretation of the data generating process and the level of statistical fit. The results have implications for traffic safety policy decisions aimed at reducing accident severity. An application using data from Spain is provided.

A prospective cohort study of healthcare visits and rehospitalizations after hospital discharge in community-acquired pneumonia

Background and objective: We aimed to identify the frequency of, reasons for and risk factors associated with additional healthcare visits and rehospitalizations (healthcare interactions) by patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) within 30 days of hospital discharge. Methods: Observational analysis of a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with CAP at a tertiary hospital (2007-2009). Additional healthcare interactions were defined as the visits to a primary care centre or emergency department and hospital readmissions within 30 days of discharge. Results: Of the 934 hospitalized patients with CAP, 282 (34.1%) had additional healthcare interactions within 30 days of hospital discharge: 149 (52.8%) needed an additional visit to their primary care centre and 177 (62.8%) attended the emergency department. Seventy-two (25.5%) patients were readmitted to hospital. The main reasons for additional healthcare interactions were worsening of signs or symptoms of CAP and new or worsening comorbid conditions independent of pneumonia, mainly cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. The only independent factor associated with visits to primary care centre or emergency department was alcohol abuse (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-2.64). Prior hospitalization (≤ 90 days) (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.11-5.52) and comorbidities (OR = 3.99; 95% CI: 1.12-14.23) were independently associated with rehospitalization. Conclusions: Additional healthcare visits and rehospitalizations within 30 days of hospital discharge are common in patients with CAP. This is mainly due to a worsening of signs or symptoms of CAP and/or comorbid conditions. These findings may have implications for discharge planning and follow-up of patients with CAP.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score. METHODS: Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.

A prospective cohort study of healthcare visits and rehospitalizations after hospital discharge in community-acquired pneumonia

Background and objective: We aimed to identify the frequency of, reasons for and risk factors associated with additional healthcare visits and rehospitalizations (healthcare interactions) by patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) within 30 days of hospital discharge. Methods: Observational analysis of a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with CAP at a tertiary hospital (2007-2009). Additional healthcare interactions were defined as the visits to a primary care centre or emergency department and hospital readmissions within 30 days of discharge. Results: Of the 934 hospitalized patients with CAP, 282 (34.1%) had additional healthcare interactions within 30 days of hospital discharge: 149 (52.8%) needed an additional visit to their primary care centre and 177 (62.8%) attended the emergency department. Seventy-two (25.5%) patients were readmitted to hospital. The main reasons for additional healthcare interactions were worsening of signs or symptoms of CAP and new or worsening comorbid conditions independent of pneumonia, mainly cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. The only independent factor associated with visits to primary care centre or emergency department was alcohol abuse (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-2.64). Prior hospitalization (≤ 90 days) (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.11-5.52) and comorbidities (OR = 3.99; 95% CI: 1.12-14.23) were independently associated with rehospitalization. Conclusions: Additional healthcare visits and rehospitalizations within 30 days of hospital discharge are common in patients with CAP. This is mainly due to a worsening of signs or symptoms of CAP and/or comorbid conditions. These findings may have implications for discharge planning and follow-up of patients with CAP.

A prospective cohort study of healthcare visits and rehospitalizations after hospital discharge in community-acquired pneumonia

Background and objective: We aimed to identify the frequency of, reasons for and risk factors associated with additional healthcare visits and rehospitalizations (healthcare interactions) by patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) within 30 days of hospital discharge. Methods: Observational analysis of a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with CAP at a tertiary hospital (2007-2009). Additional healthcare interactions were defined as the visits to a primary care centre or emergency department and hospital readmissions within 30 days of discharge. Results: Of the 934 hospitalized patients with CAP, 282 (34.1%) had additional healthcare interactions within 30 days of hospital discharge: 149 (52.8%) needed an additional visit to their primary care centre and 177 (62.8%) attended the emergency department. Seventy-two (25.5%) patients were readmitted to hospital. The main reasons for additional healthcare interactions were worsening of signs or symptoms of CAP and new or worsening comorbid conditions independent of pneumonia, mainly cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. The only independent factor associated with visits to primary care centre or emergency department was alcohol abuse (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-2.64). Prior hospitalization (≤ 90 days) (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.11-5.52) and comorbidities (OR = 3.99; 95% CI: 1.12-14.23) were independently associated with rehospitalization. Conclusions: Additional healthcare visits and rehospitalizations within 30 days of hospital discharge are common in patients with CAP. This is mainly due to a worsening of signs or symptoms of CAP and/or comorbid conditions. These findings may have implications for discharge planning and follow-up of patients with CAP.

Aspiration pneumonia in children: an iconographic essay

Abstract In most cases of aspiration pneumonia in children, the disease is specific to this age group. Clinical and radiological correlation is essential for the diagnosis. The present pictorial essay is aimed at showing typical images of the most common etiologies.

The effects of fire severity on ectomycorrhizal colonization and morphometric features in Pinus pinaster Ait. seedlings

Aim of the study: Mycorrhizal fungi in Mediterranean forests play a key role in the complex process of recovery after wildfires. A broader understanding of an important pyrophytic species as Pinus pinaster and its fungal symbionts is thus necessary for forest restoration purposes. This study aims to assess the effects of ectomycorrhizal symbiosis on maritime pine seedlings and how fire severity affects fungal colonization ability. Area of study: Central Spain, in a Mediterranean region typically affected by wildfires dominated by Pinus pinaster, a species adapted to fire disturbance. Material and Methods: We studied P. pinaster root apexes from seedlings grown in soils collected one year after fire in undisturbed sites, sites moderately affected by fire and sites highly affected by fire. Natural ectomycorrhization was observed at the whole root system level as well as at two root vertical sections (0-10 cm and 10-20 cm). We also measured several morphometric traits ( tap root length, shoot length, dry biomass of shoots and root/shoot ratio), which were used to test the influence of fire severity and soil chemistry upon them. Main results: Ectomycorrhizal colonization in undisturbed soils for total and separated root vertical sections was higher than in soils that had been affected by fire to some degree. Inversely, seedling vegetative size increased according to fire severity. Research highlights: Fire severity affected soil properties and mycorrhizal colonization one year after occurrence, thus affecting plant development. These findings can contribute to a better knowledge of the factors mediating successful establishment of P. pinaster in Mediterranean forests after wildfires.

Childhood community-acquired pneumonia

Background: Community-acquired pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. New, rapid methods are needed to improve the microbiologic diagnosis of pneumonia in clinical practice. The increasing incidence of parapneumonic empyema in children accentuates the importance of the identification of the causative agent and clinical predictors of empyema. Aims and methods: Two prospective studies were conducted to find feasible diagnostic methods for the detection of causative agents of pneumonia. The usefulness of pneumolysin-targeted real-time PCR in the diagnosis of pneumococcal disease was studied in children with pneumonia and empyema, and the clinical utility of induced sputum analysis in the microbiologic diagnosis of pneumonia was investigated in children with pneumonia. In addition, two retrospective clinical studies were performed to describe the frequency and clinical profile of influenza pneumonia in children and the frequency, clinical profile and clinical predictors of empyema in children. Results: Pneumolysin-PCR in pleural fluid significantly improved the microbiologic diagnosis of empyema by increasing the detection rate of pneumococcus almost tenfold to that of pleural fluid culture (75 % vs. 8 %). In whole blood samples, PCR detected pneumococcus in only one child with pneumonia and one child with pneumococcal empyema. Sputum induction provided good-quality sputum specimens with high microbiologic yield. Streptococcus pneumoniae (46 %) and rhinovirus (29 %) were the most common microbes detected. The quantification results of the paired sputum and nasopharyngeal aspirate specimens provided support that the majority of the bacteria (79 %) and viruses (55 %) found in sputum originated from the lower airways. Pneumonia was detected in 14 % of children with influenza infection. A history of prolonged duration of fever, tachypnea, and pain on abdominal palpation were found to be independently significant predictors of empyema. Conclusions: Pneumolysin-targeted real-time PCR is a useful and rapid method for the diagnosis of pneumococcal empyema in children. Induced sputum analysis with paired nasopharyngeal aspirate analysis can be of clinical value in the microbiologic diagnosis of pneumonia. Influenza pneumonia is an infrequent and generally benign disease in children with rare fatalities. Repeat chest radiograph and ultrasound imaging are recommended in children with pneumonia presenting with clinical predictors of empyema and in children with persistent fever and high CRP levels during hospitalization.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Gray mold severity and vase life of rose buds after pulsing with citric acid, salicylic acid, calcium sulfate, sucrose and silver thiosulfate

Gray mold of roses (Rosa hibrida) caused by Botrytis cinerea requires many management strategies for its control. The effect of pulsing rose cv. Kiss with solutions of citric acid, salicylic acid, sucrose, calcium sulfate, and silver thiosulfate (STS) on disease severity and vase life of the flowers was evaluated. The solutions were applied to cut stems at different stages of harvest, the variation in the opening stage of harvest did not affect the results. Pulsing with STS reduced the values of area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) and of severity of disease by 15% and 55%, respectively, and increased the vase life of the flowers by 20%. Calcium sulfate consistently reduced AUDPC by 66% and maximum severity by 88%, and increased vase life of the flowers by 37%. Therefore, pulsing rose buds with solutions of STS and calcium sulfate is potentially useful in reducing losses due to gray mold after harvest and in extending the vase life.

Effect of temperature, leaf wetness, and rainfall on the production of Guignardia citricarpa ascospores and on back spot severity on sweet orange

The black spot of citrus (Citrus sp.) is caused by Guignardia citricarpa with ascospore production depending on temperature, leaf wetness, and rainfall. The number of ascospores produced was monitored using a spore trap and climatic factors were recorded using an automated meteorological station of 'Natal' and 'Valencia' sweet orange (Citrus sinensis) orchards in Mogi Guaçu in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from November 2000 to March 2001. The fruits were bagged to prevent infection and the bags removed from different sets of fruit for one week during each of the 18 weeks of the season in both orchards. Ascospores were produced during the entire experimental period, from spring through summer, primarily after rain events. In both orchards, ascospore production reached a peak in January and February. Ascospore production was related to leaf wetness only in the Natal orange orchard but was not related to total rainfall or temperature in either orchard. Disease was most severe on fruit exposed the 7th, 8th, and 13th weeks after beginning the experiment in both cultivars as well as after the 16th week for 'Natal'. There was a strong relationship between disease severity and total rainfall for both orchards and a weak correlation between temperature and severity in the 'Natal' block only. There was no relationship between severity and leaf wetness or ascospore numbers.

Diagrammatic scale for assessment of soybean rust severity

A diagrammatic scale to assess soybean (Glycine max) rust severity, caused by the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, was developed in this study. Leaflets showing different severity levels were collected for determination of the minimum and maximum severity limits; intermediate levels were determined according to "Weber-Fechner's stimulus-response law". The proposed scale showed the levels of 0.6; 2; 7; 18; 42, and 78.5%. Scale validation was performed by eight raters (four inexperienced and four experienced), who estimated the severity of 44 soybean leaflets showing rust symptoms, with and without the use of the scale. Except for rater number eight, all showed a tendency to overestimate severity without the aid of the diagrammatic scale. With the scale, the raters obtained better accuracy and precision levels, although the tendency to overestimate was maintained. Experienced raters were more accurate and precise than inexperienced raters, and assessment improvements with the use of the scale were more significant for inexperienced raters.