The effects of winter ice cover on the trophic ecology of whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus L.) in subarctic lakes

Lakes in Arctic and subarctic regions display extreme levels of seasonal variation in light, temperature and ice cover. Comparatively little is known regarding the effects of such seasonal variation on the diet and resource use of fish species inhabiting these systems. Variation in the diet of European whitefish Coregonus lavaretus (L.) during periods of ice cover in this region is often regarded as 'common knowledge'; however, this aspect of the species' ecology has not been examined empirically. Here, we outline the differences in invertebrate community structure, fish activity, and resource use of monomorphic whitefish populations between summer (August-September) and winter (February-March) in three subarctic lakes in Finnish Lapland. Benthic macroinvertebrate densities did not exhibit measurable differences between summer and winter. Zooplankton diversity and abundance, and activity levels of all fish species (measured as catch per unit effort) were lower in winter. The summer diet of C. lavaretus was typical of a generalist utilising a variety of prey sources. In winter, its dietary niche was significantly reduced, and the diet was dominated by chironomid larvae in all study sites. Pelagic productivity decreases during winter, and fish species inhabiting these systems are therefore restricted to feeding on benthic prey. Sampling time has strong effect on our understanding of resource utilisation by whitefish in subarctic lakes and should be taken into account in future studies of these systems. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Indoor air quality in elementary schools of Lisbon and Aveiro

Tem havido uma preocupação crescente com a qualidade do ar interior (QAI) nas escolas em muitos países. Muitos estudos epidemiológicos têm encontrado diferenças regionais entre ambientes interiores. Apesar da elevada incidência de asma e rinite na população infantil, praticamente nada se sabia sobre a QAI em escolas portuguesas. A percepção dos problemas de QAI é crucial para avaliar os riscos para a saúde e rendimento dos estudantes, e para sugerir meios de reduzir a exposição a poluentes indesejáveis. Neste estudo procurou-se obter as concentrações de poluentes de interesse em estabelecimentos de ensino do 1º ciclo de Lisboa e Aveiro, estimar o estado atual de casos de asma e rinite em escolas primárias da capital, avaliar a influência de diferentes materiais das salas de aula/construção e hábitos escolares na QAI, identificar potenciais fontes de poluentes nos interiores e exteriores das salas de aula e propor medidas mitigadoras. Catorze escolas de Lisboa foram visitadas para obter a caracterização física das construções em termos de estrutura, ventilação, materiais de acabamento, produtos de limpeza, densidade de ocupação e potenciais fontes interiores de poluição. Os estudantes foram questionados sobre os seus hábitos e sintomas respiratórios através de inquéritos do modelo ISAAC (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood). Durante a primavera, outono e inverno (2008-2010), nas salas de aula e pátios, foram monitorizados, por amostragem passiva, compostos orgânicos voláteis (COVs), carbonilos e dióxido de azoto (NO2). Foram também medidos parâmetros de conforto e níveis de microrganismos. Duas escolas localizadas, uma no centro da cidade e outra na região suburbana, em Aveiro foram estudadas em 2010. Parâmetros de conforto, microrganismos, COVs, NO2, material particulado (PM10) foram medidos no interior e no exterior de ambas escolas. Os iões solúveis, carbono orgânico e elementar (OC e EC), e compostos orgânicos presentes no material particulado foram subsequentemente analisados em laboratório. Uma medida mitigadora - fitoremediação - foi avaliada na escola do centro da cidade de Aveiro em 2011. Os resultados do estudo mostraram que a QAI é pior do que a do ar exterior. Em geral, os níveis de CO2 e dos bioaerosóis excederam os níveis máximos aceitáveis para o conforto dos ocupantes estipulado pelas regulamentações portuguesas. Quase todos os COVs e carbonilos identificados mostraram razões interior/exterior (I/E) maiores que uma unidade, o que demonstra a importante contribuição de fontes interiores em todas as escolas. As razões I/E das concentrações de NO2 nunca excederam a unidade. Os níveis interiores diários de PM10 foram sempre maiores que os exteriores, exceto nos fins de semana. Após a colocação de plantas numa das salas de aula, observou-se uma redução estatisticamente significativa nos níveis de CO2, COVs, carbonilos, PM10, OC, e dos iões nitrato, sulfato, amónia, cálcio e carbonato. A possível redução dos níveis de poluentes no interior após a colocação de plantas pode representar uma solução de baixo custo para reduzir a exposição a muitos compostos, melhorar o rendimento e aumentar o bem estar dos alunos e professores em sala de aula.

Mortality among 24,865 workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in three electrical capacitor manufacturing plants: a ten-year update.

The objective of this analysis was to evaluate mortality among a cohort of 24,865 capacitor-manufacturing workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at plants in Indiana, Massachusetts, and New York and followed for mortality through 2008. Cumulative PCB exposure was estimated using plant-specific job-exposure matrices. External comparisons to US and state-specific populations used standardized mortality ratios, adjusted for gender, race, age and calendar year. Among long-term workers employed 3 months or longer, within-cohort comparisons used standardized rate ratios and multivariable Poisson regression modeling. Through 2008, more than one million person-years at risk and 8749 deaths were accrued. Among long-term employees, all-cause and all-cancer mortality were not elevated; of the a priori outcomes assessed only melanoma mortality was elevated. Mortality was elevated for some outcomes of a priori interest among subgroups of long-term workers: all cancer, intestinal cancer and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (women); melanoma (men); melanoma and brain and nervous system cancer (Indiana plant); and melanoma and multiple myeloma (New York plant). Standardized rates of stomach and uterine cancer and multiple myeloma mortality increased with estimated cumulative PCB exposure. Poisson regression modeling showed significant associations with estimated cumulative PCB exposure for prostate and stomach cancer mortality. For other outcomes of a priori interest--rectal, liver, ovarian, breast, and thyroid cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Alzheimer disease, and Parkinson disease--neither elevated mortality nor positive associations with PCB exposure were observed. Associations between estimated cumulative PCB exposure and stomach, uterine, and prostate cancer and myeloma mortality confirmed our previous positive findings.

The effects of plants(Typha Latifolia)and root-bed medium on the treatment of domestic sewage within a vertical flow constructed wetland /

The effect that plants {Typha latifolia) as well as root-bed medium physical and chemical characteristics have on the treatment of primary treated domestic wastewater within a vertical flow constructed wetland system was investigated. Five sets of cells, with two cells in each set, were used. Each cell was made of concrete and measured 1 .0 m X 1 .0 m and was 1.3 m deep. Four different root-bed media were tested : Queenston Shale, Fonthill Sand, Niagara Shale and a Michigan Sand. Four of the sets contained plants and a single type of root-bed medium. The influence of plants was tested by operating a Queenston Shale set without plants. Due to budget constraints no replicates were constructed. All of the sets were operated independently and identically for twenty-eight months. Twelve months of data are presented here, collected after 16 months of continuous operation. Root-bed medium type did not influence BOD5 removal. All of the sets consistently met Ontario Ministry of Environment (MOE) requirements (<25 mg/L) for BOD5 throughout the year. The 12 month average BOD5 concentration from all sets with plants was below 2.36 mg/L. All of the sets were within MOE discharge requirements (< 25 mg/L) for suspended solids with set effluent concentrations ranging from 1.53 to 14.80 mg/L. The Queenston Shale and Fonthill Sand media removed the most suspended solids while the Niagara Shale set produced suspended solids. The set containing Fonthill Sand was the only series to meet MOE discharge requirements (< Img/L) for total phosphorus year-round with a twelve month mean effluent concentration of 0.23 mg/L. Year-round all of the root-bed media were well below MOE discharge requirements (< 20mg/L in winter and < 10 mg/L in sumnner) for ammonium. The Queenston Shale and Fonthill Sand sets removed the most total nitrogen. Plants had no effect on total nitrogen removal, but did influence how nitrogen was cycled within the system. Plants increased the removal of suspended solids by 14%, BOD5 by 10% and total phosphorus by 22%. Plants also increased the amount of dissolved oxygen that entered the system. During the plant growing season removal of total phosphorus was better in all sets with plants regardless of media type. The sets containing Queenston Shale and Fonthill Sand media achieved the best results and plants in the Queenston Shale set increased treatment efficiency for every parameter except nitrogen. Vertical flow wetland sewage treatment systems can be designed and built to consistently meet MOE discharge requirements year-round for BOD5, suspended solids, total phosphorus and ammonium. This system Is generally superior to the free water systems and sub-surface horizontal flow systems in cold climate situations.

Entwicklung und Anwendung einer Kraftwerks- und Speichereinsatzoptimierung für die Untersuchung von Energieversorgungsszenarien mit hohem Anteil erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland

In dieser Arbeit wurde ein gemischt-ganzzahliges lineares Einsatzoptimierungsmodell für Kraftwerke und Speicher aufgebaut und für die Untersuchung der Energieversorgung Deutschlands im Jahre 2050 gemäß den Leitstudie-Szenarien 2050 A und 2050 C ([Nitsch und Andere, 2012]) verwendet, in denen erneuerbare Energien einen Anteil von über 85 % an der Stromerzeugung haben und die Wind- und Solarenergie starke Schwankungen der durch steuerbare Kraftwerke und Speicher zu deckenden residualen Stromnachfrage (Residuallast) verursachen. In Szenario 2050 A sind 67 TWh Wasserstoff, die elektrolytisch aus erneuerbarem Strom zu erzeugen sind, für den Verkehr vorgesehen. In Szenario 2050 C ist kein Wasserstoff für den Verkehr vorgesehen und die effizientere Elektromobilität hat einen Anteil von 100% am Individualverkehr. Daher wird weniger erneuerbarer Strom zur Erreichung desselben erneuerbaren Anteils im Verkehrssektor benötigt. Da desweiteren Elektrofahrzeuge Lastmanagementpotentiale bieten, weisen die Residuallasten der Szenarien eine unterschiedliche zeitliche Charakteristik und Jahressumme auf. Der Schwerpunkt der Betrachtung lag auf der Ermittlung der Auslastung und Fahrweise des in den Szenarien unterstellten ’Kraftwerks’-parks bestehend aus Kraftwerken zur reinen Stromerzeugung, Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungskraftwerken, die mit Wärmespeichern, elektrischen Heizstäben und Gas-Backupkesseln ausgestattet sind, Stromspeichern und Wärmepumpen, die durch Wärmespeicher zum Lastmanagment eingesetzt werden können. Der Fahrplan dieser Komponenten wurde auf minimale variable Gesamtkosten der Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung über einen Planungshorizont von jeweils vier Tagen hin optimiert. Das Optimierungsproblem wurde mit dem linearen Branch-and-Cut-Solver der software CPLEX gelöst. Mittels sogenannter rollierender Planung wurde durch Zusammensetzen der Planungsergebnisse für überlappende Planungsperioden der Kraftwerks- und Speichereinsatz für die kompletten Szenariojahre erhalten. Es wurde gezeigt, dass der KWK-Anteil an der Wärmelastdeckung gering ist. Dies wurde begründet durch die zeitliche Struktur der Stromresiduallast, die wärmeseitige Dimensionierung der Anlagen und die Tatsache, dass nur eine kurzfristige Speicherung von Wärme vorgesehen war. Die wärmeseitige Dimensionierung der KWK stellte eine Begrenzung des Deckungsanteils dar, da im Winter bei hoher Stromresiduallast nur wenig freie Leistung zur Beladung der Speicher zur Verfügung stand. In den Berechnungen für das Szenario 2050 A und C lag der mittlere Deckungsanteil der KWK an der Wärmenachfrage von ca. 100 TWh_th bei 40 bzw. 60 %, obwohl die Auslegung der KWK einen theoretischen Anteil von über 97 % an der Wärmelastdeckung erlaubt hätte, gäbe es die Beschränkungen durch die Stromseite nicht. Desweiteren wurde die CO2-Vermeidungswirkung der KWK-Wärmespeicher und des Lastmanagements mit Wärmepumpen untersucht. In Szenario 2050 A ergab sich keine signifikante CO2-Vermeidungswirkung der KWK-Wärmespeicher, in Szenario 2050 C hingegen ergab sich eine geringe aber signifikante CO2-Einsparung in Höhe von 1,6 % der Gesamtemissionen der Stromerzeugung und KWK-gebundenen Wärmeversorgung. Das Lastmanagement mit Wärmepumpen vermied Emissionen von 110 Tausend Tonnen CO2 (0,4 % der Gesamtemissionen) in Szenario A und 213 Tausend Tonnen in Szenario C (0,8 % der Gesamtemissionen). Es wurden darüber hinaus Betrachtungen zur Konkurrenz zwischen solarthermischer Nahwärme und KWK bei Einspeisung in dieselben Wärmenetze vorgenommen. Eine weitere Einschränkung der KWK-Erzeugung durch den Einspeisevorrang der Solarthermie wurde festgestellt. Ferner wurde eine untere Grenze von 6,5 bzw. 8,8 TWh_th für die in den Szenarien mindestens benötigte Wasserstoff-Speicherkapazität ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit legen nahe, das technisch-ökonomische Potential von Langzeitwärmespeichern für eine bessere Integration von KWK ins System zu ermitteln bzw. generell nach geeigneteren Wärmesektorszenarien zu suchen, da deutlich wurde, dass für die öffentliche Wärmeversorgung die KWK in Kombination mit Kurzzeitwärmespeicherung, Gaskesseln und elektrischen Heizern keine sehr effektive CO2 -Reduktion in den Szenarien erreicht. Es sollte dabei z.B. untersucht werden, ob ein multivalentes System aus KWK, Wärmespeichern und Wärmepumpen eine ökonomisch darstellbare Alternative sein könnte und im Anschluss eine Betrachtung der optimalen Anteile von KWK, Wärmepumpen und Solarthermie im Wärmemarkt vorgenommen werden.

Seasonal deposition of Holocene banded sediments in the Severn Estuary Levels (southwest Britain): palynological and sedimentological evidence

Banded sediments outcrop widely in the intertidal zone of the Severn Estuary and have been suggested, on the basis of textural analysis, to have formed in response to seasonal variations in sea temperature and windiness (Holocene, 14 (2004) 536). Here palynological and sedimentological analyses of banded sediments of mid-Holocene date from Gold Cliff, on the Welsh side of the Severn Estuary, are combined to test and further develop the hypothesis of seasonal deposition. Pollen percentage and concentration data are presented from a short sequence of bands to establish whether textural variations in the bands coincide with variations in pollen content reflecting seasonal flowering patterns. It is shown that fine-grained band parts contain higher total pollen concentrations, and a higher proportion of pollen from late spring- to summer-flowering plants, than coarse-grained band parts. Pollen in the coarser deposits appears primarily to reflect deposition from the buffering `reservoir' of suspended pollen in the estuarine water-body and from rivers, when there is little pollen in the air in winter, while the finer sediments contain pollen deposited from the atmosphere during the flowering season, superimposed on these `background' sources. The potential of such deposits for refining chronologies and identifying seasonality of coastal processes is noted, and the results of charcoal particle analysis of the bands presented as an example of how they have the potential to shed light on seasonal and annual patterns of human activity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of weeds in supporting biological diversity within crop fields

Weeds are major constraints on crop production, yet as part of the primary producers within farming systems, they may be important components of the agroecosystem. Using published literature, the role of weeds in arable systems for other above-ground trophic levels are examined. In the UK, there is evidence that weed flora have changed over the past century, with some species declining in abundance, whereas others have increased. There is also some evidence for a decline in the size of arable weed seedbanks. Some of these changes reflect improved agricultural efficiency, changes to more winter-sown crops in arable rotations and the use of more broad-spectrum herbicide combinations. Interrogation of a database of records of phytophagous insects associated with plant species in the UK reveals that many arable weed species support a high diversity of insect species. Reductions in abundances of host plants may affect associated insects and other taxa. A number of insect groups and farmland birds have shown marked population declines over the past 30 years. Correlational studies indicate that many of these declines are associated with changes in agricultural practices. Certainly reductions in food availability in winter and for nestling birds in spring are implicated in the declines of several bird species, notably the grey partridge, Perdix perdix . Thus weeds have a role within agroecosystems in supporting biodiversity more generally. An understanding of weed competitivity and the importance of weeds for insects and birds may allow the identification of the most important weed species. This may form the first step in balancing the needs for weed control with the requirements for biodiversity and more sustainable production methods.

Changing precipitation patterns alter plant community dynamics and succession in an ex-arable grassland

1. Changes in the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts, may be one of the most significant impacts of climate change for ecosystems. Models predict more frequent summer droughts in much of England: this paper investigates the impact on different types of plants in an ex-arable grassland community. 2. A long-term experiment simulated increased and decreased summer precipitation. Substantial interannual variation allowed the effects of summer drought to be tested in combination with wet and dry weather in other seasons. This is important, as climate models predict increased winter precipitation. 3. Total cover abundance in early summer increased with increasing water supply in the previous summer; there was no effect of winter precipitation. Productivity is therefore likely to decrease with more frequent summer droughts, with no mitigating effect of wetter winters. 4. The percentage cover of perennial grasses declined during a natural drought in 1995-97; this was exacerbated by the experimental drought treatment and reduced by supplemented rainfall. Simultaneously, short-lived ruderal species increased; this was greatest in drought treatments and least with supplemented rainfall. 4. These trends were subsequently reversed during several years of unusually wet weather, with perennial grasses increasing and short-lived forbs decreasing. This occurred even in experimentally droughted plots, and we propose that it resulted from rapid coverage of gaps during wet autumns and winters. 6. Deep-rooted species generally proved to be more drought resistant, but there were exceptions. 7. We conclude that increased frequency of summer droughts could have serious implications for the establishment and successional development of ex-arable grasslands. Increased winter precipitation would moderate the impact on species composition, but not on productivity.

Cultural techniques for improvement in biocontrol potential of fungal antagonists for biological control of Armillaria root rot of strawberry plants under glasshouse conditions

Several in vitro and in vivo experiments were conducted to develop an effective technique for culturing potential fungal antagonists (isolates of Trichoderma harzianum, Dactylium dendroides, Chaetomium olivaceum and one unidentified fungus) selected for activity against Armillaria mellea. The antagonists were inoculated onto (1) live spawn of the oyster mu shroom (Pleurotus ostreatus), (2) extra-moistened or sucrose-enriched mushroom composts containing living or autoclaved mycelia of P. ostreatus or Agaricus bisporus (button mushroom), (3) pasteurized compost with or without A. bisporus mycelium, wheat bran, wheat germ and (4) spent mushroom composts with living mycelia of A. bisporus, P. ostreatus or Lentinus edodes (the Shiitake mushroom). In one experiment, a representative antagonist (isolate Th2 of T. harzianum) was grown together with the A. bisporus mycelium, while in another one, the antagonist was first grown on wheat germ or wheat bran and then on mushroom compost with living mycelium of A. bisporus. Some of the carrier substrates were then added to the roots of potted strawberry plants in the glasshouse to evaluate their effectiveness against the disease. The antagonists failed to grow on the spawn of P. ostreatus even after reinoculations and prolonged incubation. Providing extra moisture or sucrose enrichment also did not improve the growth of Th2 on mushroom composts in the presence of living mycelia of A. bisporus or P. ostreatus. The antagonist, however, grew rapidly and extensively on mushroom compost with autoclaved mycelia, and also on wheat germ and wheat bran. Colonization of the substrates by the antagonist was positively correlated with its effectiveness in the glasshouse studies. Whereas only 33.3% of the inoculated control plants survived in one experiment monitored for 560 days, 100% survival was achieved when Th2 was applied on wheat germ or wheat bran. Growth of the antagonist alone on pasteurized or sterilized compost (without A. bisporus mycelia) and simultaneous growth of the antagonist and mushroom on pasteurized compost did not improve survival over the inoculated controls, but growth over mushroom compost with the living mycelium resulted in 50% survival rate. C. olivaceum isolate Co was the most effective, resulting in overall survival rate of 83.3% compared with only 8.3% for the inoculated and 100% for the uninoculated (healthy) controls. This antagonist gave the highest survival rate of 100% on spent mushroom compost with L. edodes. T harzianum isolate Th23, with 75% survival rate, was the most effective on spent mushroom compost with P. ostreatus, while D. dendroides isolate SP resulted in equal survival rates of 50% on all the three mushroom composts.

Speciation and variation in the occurrence of haloacetic acids in three water supply systems in England

An investigation into the speciation and occurrence of nine haloacetic acids (HAAs) was conducted during the period of April 2007 to March 2008 and involved three drinking water supply systems in England, which were chosen to represent a range of source water conditions; these were an upland surface water, a lowland surface water and a groundwater. Samples were collected seasonally from the water treatment plants and at different locations in the distribution systems. The highest HAA concentrations occurred in the upland surface water system, with an average total HAA concentration of 21.3 μg/L. The lowest HAA levels were observed in the groundwater source, with a mean concentration of 0.6 μg/L. Seasonal variations were significant in the HAA concentrations; the highest total HAA concentrations were found during the autumn, when the concentrations were approximately two times higher than in winter and spring. HAA speciation varied among the water sources, with dichloroacetic acid and trichloroacetic acid dominant in the lowland surface water system and brominated species dominant in the upland surface water system. There was a strong correlation between trihalomethanes and HAAs when considering all samples from the three systems in the same data set (r2=0.88); however, the correlation was poor/moderate when considering each system independently.

Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM

The Asian winter monsoon (AWM) response to the global warming was investigated through a long-term integration of the transient greenhouse warming with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. The physics of the response was studied through analyses of the impact of the global warming on the variations of the ocean and land contrast near the ground in the Asian and western Pacific region and the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere. Forcing of transient eddy activity on the zonal circulation over the Asian and western Pacific region was also analyzed. It is found that in the global warming scenario the winter northeasterlies along the Pacific coast of the Eurasian continent weaken systematically and significantly, and intensity of the AWM reduces evidently, but the AWM variances on the interannual and interdecadal scales are not affected much by the global warming. It is suggested that the global warming makes the climate over the most part of Asia to be milder with enhanced moisture in winter. In the global warming scenario the contrasts of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean become significantly smaller, northward and eastward shifts and weakening of the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere are found. As a consequence, the cold air in the AWM originating from the east Asian trough and high latitudes is less powerful. In addition, feedback of the transient activity also makes a considerable contribution to the higher-latitude shift of the jet stream over the North Pacific in the global warming scenario.

Effect of earthworm Eisenia fetida and wetland plants on nitrification and denitrification potentials in vertical flow constructed wetland.

The response of nitrification potentials, denitrification potentials, and N removal efficiency to the introduction of earthworms and wetland plants in a vertical flow constructed wetland system was investigated. Addition of earthworms increased nitrification and denitrification potentials of substrate in non-vegetated constructed wetland by 236% and 8%, respectively; it increased nitrification and denitrification potentials in rhizosphere in vegetated constructed wetland (Phragmites austrail, Typha augustifolia and Canna indica), 105% and 5%, 187% and 12%, and 268% and 15% respectively. Denitrification potentials in rhizosphere of three wetland plants were not significantly different, but nitrification potentials in rhizosphere followed the order of C. indica > T. augustifolia > P. australis when addition of earthworms into constructed wetland. Addition of earthworms to the vegetated constructed significantly increased the total number of bacteria and fungi of substrates (P < 0.05). The total number of bacteria was significantly correlated with nitrification potentials (r = 913, P < 0.01) and denitrification potentials (r = 840, P < 0.01), respectively. The N concentration of stems and leaves of C. indica were significantly higher in the constructed wetland with earthworms (P < 0.05). Earthworms had greater impact on nitrification potentials than denitrification potentials. The removal efficiency of N was improved via stimulated nitrification potentials by earthworms and higher N uptake by wetland plants.

Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents1. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year worldwide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars and causing structural damage to planes1, 2, 3. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar4, 5. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams6, 7, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change8. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to projected climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using climate model simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50–75° N and 10–60° W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10–40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40–170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate9, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

Relationships between plant traits and climate in the Mediterranean region: an analysis based on pollen data

Question: What are the correlations between the degree of drought stress and temperature, and the adoption of specific adaptive strategies by plants in the Mediterranean region? Location: 602 sites across the Mediterranean region. Method: We considered 12 plant morphological and phenological traits, and measured their abundance at the sites as trait scores obtained from pollen percentages. We conducted stepwise regression analyses of trait scores as a function of plant available moisture (α) and winter temperature (MTCO). Results: Patterns in the abundance for the plant traits we considered are clearly determined by α, MTCO or a combination of both. In addition, trends in leaf size, texture, thickness, pubescence and aromatic leaves and other plant level traits such as thorniness and aphylly, vary according to the life form (tree, shrub, forb), the leaf type (broad, needle) and phenology (evergreen, summer-green). Conclusions: Despite conducting this study based on pollen data we have identified ecologically plausible trends in the abundance of traits along climatic gradients. Plant traits other than the usual life form, leaf type and leaf phenology carry strong climatic signals. Generally, combinations of plant traits are more climatically diagnostic than individual traits. The qualitative and quantitative relationships between plant traits and climate parameters established here will help to provide an improved basis for modelling the impact of climate changes on vegetation and form a starting point for a global analysis of pollen-climate relationships

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratropical cyclones are objectively tracked and a simple approach is applied to identify the precipitation associated to each cyclone. This allows us to decompose the Mediterranean precipitation reduction into a contribution due to changes in the number of cyclones and a contribution due to changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone. The results show that the projected Mediterranean precipitation reduction in winter is strongly related to a decrease in the number of Mediterranean cyclones. However, the contribution from changes in the amount of precipitation generated by each cyclone are also locally important: in the East Mediterranean they amplify the precipitation trend due to the reduction in the number of cyclones, while in the North Mediterranean they compensate for it. Some of the processes that determine the opposing cyclone precipitation intensity responses in the North and East Mediterranean regions are investigated by exploring the CMIP5 inter-model spread.