Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs

This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of Bayesian VARs for forecasting, even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large. In such cases, factor methods have been traditionally used but recent work using a particular prior suggests that Bayesian VAR methods can forecast better. In this paper, we consider a range of alternative priors which have been used with small VARs, discuss the issues which arise when they are used with medium and large VARs and examine their forecast performance using a US macroeconomic data set containing 168 variables. We nd that Bayesian VARs do tend to forecast better than factor methods and provide an extensive comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. Our empirical results show the importance of using forecast metrics which use the entire predictive density, instead of using only point forecasts.

Medium-term protocols for in vivo evaluation of chemical modifiers of carcinogenesis

Cancer development is a long-term multistep process which allows interventional measure before the clincial disease emerges. the detection of natural substances which can block the process of carcinogenesis is a important as the identification of anti-tumoral drugs since they might be used in chemoprevention of cancer in high-risk groups. In vivo rodent models of chemical caecinogenesis have been used to study plant-derived inhibitors of carcinofenesis such as indols, coumarins, isothiocyanates, flavones, phenols and allyl-sulfides. Since the standard in vivo rodent bioassay is prolonged and expensive, shorter reliable protocols are needed. Two in vivo medium-term protocols for evaluation of modifiers of carcinogenesis are presented, one related to liver and the other to bladder cancer. Both protocols use rats, last 8 and 36 weeks and are based on the two-step concept of carcinogenesis: initiation and promotion. The protocols use respectively the development of altered foci of hepatocytes expressing immunochistochemically the placental form of gluthation S-transferase and the appearence of pre-neoplastic urothelium and papillomas as the "end-points". the use of these protocols for detection of plantpderived inhibitors of carcinogenesis appear warranted.

Maximal Physiological Parameters during Partial Body-Weight Support Treadmill Testing.

PURPOSE: This study investigated maximal cardiometabolic response while running in a lower body positive pressure treadmill (antigravity treadmill (AG)), which reduces body weight (BW) and impact. The AG is used in rehabilitation of injuries but could have potential for high-speed running, if workload is maximally elevated. METHODS: Fourteen trained (nine male) runners (age 27 ± 5 yr; 10-km personal best, 38.1 ± 1.1 min) completed a treadmill incremental test (CON) to measure aerobic capacity and heart rate (V˙O2max and HRmax). They completed four identical tests (48 h apart, randomized order) on the AG at BW of 100%, 95%, 90%, and 85% (AG100 to AG85). Stride length and rate were measured at peak velocities (Vpeak). RESULTS: V˙O2max (mL·kg·min) was similar across all conditions (men: CON = 66.6 (3.0), AG100 = 65.6 (3.8), AG95 = 65.0 (5.4), AG90 = 65.6 (4.5), and AG85 = 65.0 (4.8); women: CON = 63.0 (4.6), AG100 = 61.4 (4.3), AG95 = 60.7 (4.8), AG90 = 61.4 (3.3), and AG85 = 62.8 (3.9)). Similar results were found for HRmax, except for AG85 in men and AG100 and AG90 in women, which were lower than CON. Vpeak (km·h) in men was 19.7 (0.9) in CON, which was lower than every other condition: AG100 = 21.0 (1.9) (P < 0.05), AG95 = 21.4 (1.8) (P < 0.01), AG90 = 22.3 (2.1) (P < 0.01), and AG85 = 22.6 (1.6) (P < 0.001). In women, Vpeak (km·h) was similar between CON (17.8 (1.1) ) and AG100 (19.3 (1.0)) but higher at AG95 = 19.5 (0.4) (P < 0.05), AG90 = 19.5 (0.8) (P < 0.05), and AG85 = 21.2 (0.9) (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The AG can be used at maximal exercise intensities at BW of 85% to 95%, reaching faster running speeds than normally feasible. The AG could be used for overspeed running programs at the highest metabolic response levels.

A medium for inducing conversion of Histoplasma capsulatum var. capsulatum into its yeast-like form

Histoplasma capsulatum var. capsulatum is a dimorphic fungus that, under special conditions, converts from its more common mycelial form to a yeast-like form. Achieving this conversion, however, has been problematical for researchers. The present study tested conversion rates in ten Histoplasma capsulatum var. capsulatum strains using seven culture media, four of wich were conventional and three novel. One of our novel media, MLGema, induced complete conversion, of two strains within five days of incubation at 35 degrees centigrades, and of all strains that eventually converted by the time of the second subculturing transfer, under defined experimental conditions. MLGema is also inexpensive and easy to produce.

Are glutamate and lactate increases ubiquitous to physiological activation? A (1)H functional MR spectroscopy study during motor activation in human brain at 7Tesla.

Recent studies at high field (7Tesla) have reported small metabolite changes, in particular lactate and glutamate (below 0.3μmol/g) during visual stimulation. These studies have been limited to the visual cortex because of its high energy metabolism and good magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) sensitivity using surface coil. The aim of this study was to extend functional MRS (fMRS) to investigate for the first time the metabolite changes during motor activation at 7T. Small but sustained increases in lactate (0.17μmol/g±0.05μmol/g, p<0.001) and glutamate (0.17μmol/g±0.09μmol/g, p<0.005) were detected during motor activation followed by a return to the baseline after the end of activation. The present study demonstrates that increases in lactate and glutamate during motor stimulation are small, but similar to those observed during visual stimulation. From the observed glutamate and lactate increase, we inferred that these metabolite changes may be a general manifestation of the increased neuronal activity. In addition, we propose that the measured metabolite concentration increases imply an increase in ΔCMRO2 that is transiently below that of ΔCMRGlc during the first 1 to 2min of the stimulation.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography, contrast medium administration and toxicological analyses in urine.

Postmortem angiography methods that use water soluble or lipid soluble liquid contrast compounds may potentially modify the composition of fluid-based biological samples and thus influence toxicological findings. In this study, we investigated whether toxicological investigations performed in urine collected prior to and post angiography using Angiofil? mixed with paraffin oil are characterized by different qualitative or quantitative results. In addition, we studied whether diluting samples with 1% and 3% contrast medium solution may modify molecule concentration. A postmortem angiography group consisting of 50 cases and a postmortem group without angiography consisting of 50 cases were formed. In the first group, toxicological investigations were performed in urine samples collected prior to and post angiography as well as in undiluted and diluted samples. In the second group, analyses were performed in undiluted and diluted urine, bile, gastric content, cerebrospinal and pericardial fluids collected during autopsy. The preliminary results indicate that differences may be observed between urine samples collected prior to and post angiography in the number of identified molecules in relation to specific cases. Analyses performed in diluted samples failed to reveal differences that might potentially alter the interpretation of toxicological results in all analyzed specimens for nearly all molecules, except for tetrahydrocannabinol and its metabolites. Though these findings suggest that toxicology might be effectively performed, in very special cases and for a large number of molecules, in biological samples collected after angiography, it remains recommendable to collect biological fluids for toxicology prior to contrast medium injection.

Use of a selective medium with potassium tellurite to follow intestinal colonization of hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Nosocomial infections are a relevant factor in complicating the recovery of patients interned for even minor causes. In attempt to determine their origin it is crucial to consider that their origin is of an endogenous nature. Looking for an acessible expression of intestinal colonization we analyzed fecal samples from 3 separate groups of hospital patients collected after different lenghts of time. For practical reasons one group was studied prospectively and two other groups (patients hospitalized for up to 7 days and patients hospitalized for more than 7 days) were compared to one another. We looked for the emergence of tellurite resistance among Enterobacteriaceae using a selective medium. MacConkey potassium tellurite (MCPT). The frequence of prospectively studied patients with tellurite resistant strains was significantly greater after 7 days of hospitalization. For the two other groups, patients with more than 7 days of hospitalization showed a significant increase of bacterial species and of strains with new antimicrobial resistance markers. High molecular weigth plasmids were detected in some of these strains. These data show that the MCPT medium is a useful tool for the investigation of bowel colonization in hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae.

Simultaneous cell morphometry and refractive index measurement with dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy and dye-enhanced dispersion of perfusion medium.

Digital holographic microscopy (DHM) allows optical-path-difference (OPD) measurements with nanometric accuracy. OPD induced by transparent cells depends on both the refractive index (RI) of cells and their morphology. This Letter presents a dual-wavelength DHM that allows us to separately measure both the RI and the cellular thickness by exploiting an enhanced dispersion of the perfusion medium achieved by the utilization of an extracellular dye. The two wavelengths are chosen in the vicinity of the absorption peak of the dye, where the absorption is accompanied by a significant variation of the RI as a function of the wavelength.

Physiological differences between cycling and running: lessons from triathletes

The purpose of this review was to provide a synopsis of the literature concerning the physiological differences between cycling and running. By comparing physiological variables such as maximal oxygen consumption (V O(2max)), anaerobic threshold (AT), heart rate, economy or delta efficiency measured in cycling and running in triathletes, runners or cyclists, this review aims to identify the effects of exercise modality on the underlying mechanisms (ventilatory responses, blood flow, muscle oxidative capacity, peripheral innervation and neuromuscular fatigue) of adaptation. The majority of studies indicate that runners achieve a higher V O(2max) on treadmill whereas cyclists can achieve a V O(2max) value in cycle ergometry similar to that in treadmill running. Hence, V O(2max) is specific to the exercise modality. In addition, the muscles adapt specifically to a given exercise task over a period of time, resulting in an improvement in submaximal physiological variables such as the ventilatory threshold, in some cases without a change in V O(2max). However, this effect is probably larger in cycling than in running. At the same time, skill influencing motor unit recruitment patterns is an important influence on the anaerobic threshold in cycling. Furthermore, it is likely that there is more physiological training transfer from running to cycling than vice versa. In triathletes, there is generally no difference in V O(2max) measured in cycle ergometry and treadmill running. The data concerning the anaerobic threshold in cycling and running in triathletes are conflicting. This is likely to be due to a combination of actual training load and prior training history in each discipline. The mechanisms surrounding the differences in the AT together with V O(2max) in cycling and running are not largely understood but are probably due to the relative adaptation of cardiac output influencing V O(2max) and also the recruitment of muscle mass in combination with the oxidative capacity of this mass influencing the AT. Several other physiological differences between cycling and running are addressed: heart rate is different between the two activities both for maximal and submaximal intensities. The delta efficiency is higher in running. Ventilation is more impaired in cycling than in running. It has also been shown that pedalling cadence affects the metabolic responses during cycling but also during a subsequent running bout. However, the optimal cadence is still debated. Central fatigue and decrease in maximal strength are more important after prolonged exercise in running than in cycling.

Television before TV : a transnational history of an experimental medium on display, 1928 - 1939

Dès le milieu des années 1920 et le développement des premiers prototypes fonctionnels, la télévision se fait objet d'exposition. La nouvelle technologie est montrée à des foires industrielles et dans des grands magasins, à des expositions universelles et nationales : exposée, la télévision devient un mass media avant même qu'elle ne diffuse des émissions régulières. En étudiant les présentations publiques de la télévision en Allemagne, en Grande-Bretagne et aux Etats-Unis entre 1928 - date de l'ouverture des premières expositions annuelles dans les trois pays - et 1939 - moment de l'interruption de celles-ci suite à l'éclatement de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale - Television before TV montre que les lieux où le médium rencontre son premier public constituent les mêmes espaces qui, rétrospectivement, permettent de comprendre son avènement. Cette recherche propose ainsi de nouvelles pistes pour l'histoire des médias en interrogeant la définition de la télévision en tant que médium du privé. Elle rappelle l'importance historique de l'espace public pour la « vision à distance » et, dépassant la perspective nationale, reconstitue les différences et similarités techniques, médiatiques et institutionnelles de la télévision allemande, américaine et britannique dans l'entre-deux-guerres. Développée dans un contexte qui est simultanément nationaliste et nourri d'échanges et de compétitions internationales, la télévision sert de comparatif dans les rivalités entre pays, mais stimule également la circulation de savoir-faire et de personnes. Sa forte valeur symbolique comme emblème du progrès scientifique et, dans le cas allemand, comme preuve de la modernité du régime national-socialiste se traduit dans les salles d'expositions par des scénographies souvent innovatrices, dont les photographies et descriptions se propagent au-delà de la presse locale. Au centre d'un réseau discursif et représentationnel, les expositions jouent alors un rôle essentiel pour la construction sociale, politique et culturelle de la télévision. Remplaçant l'analyse de textes audiovisuels par l'étude de la machine exposée, ma recherche reformule la question bazinienne de qu'est-ce que la télévision ? pour demander où le médium se situe-t-il ? Cette prémisse méthodologique permet de contourner une évaluation qualitative de la technologie qui déplorerait ses multiples imperfections, et éclaire d'un nouveau jour des dispositifs télévisuels qui, même sans programme, intègrent un univers voué à la culture de consommation et du loisir.