Die mentale Repräsentation von verbalen Ortsbeschreibungen

Studied the mental representation of verbally described spatial layouts. Human subjects: 36 normal Swiss adolescents and adults. Two informationally equivalent texts describing the same fictitious town were constructed and presented to different groups. Spatial information was given in geographic terms in the survey text and in the form of directions for driving through the town in the route text. After learning the texts Ss had to verify the route (forward vs backward) and survey inferences.

On the interaction of attentional focus and gaze: The quiet eye inhibits focus-related performance decrements

To date, despite a large body of evidence in favor of the advantage of an effect-related focus of attention compared with a movement-related focus of attention in motor control and learning, the role of vision in this context remains unclear. Therefore, in a golf-putting study, the relation between attentional focus and gaze behavior (in particular, quiet eye, or QE) was investigated. First, the advantage of an effect-related focus, as well as of a long QE duration, could be replicated. Furthermore, in the online-demanding task of golf putting, high performance was associated with later QE offsets. Most decisively, an interaction between attentional focus and gaze behavior was revealed in such a way that the efficiency of the QE selectively manifested under movement-related focus instructions. As these findings suggest neither additive effects nor a causal chain, an alternative hypothesis is introduced explaining positive QE effects by the inhibition of not-to-be parameterized movement variants.

Tracking water pathways in steep hillslopes by d18O depth profiles of soil water

Assessing temporal variations in soil water flow is important, especially at the hillslope scale, to identify mechanisms of runoff and flood generation and pathways for nutrients and pollutants in soils. While surface processes are well considered and parameterized, the assessment of subsurface processes at the hillslope scale is still challenging since measurement of hydrological pathways is connected to high efforts in time, money and personnel work. The latter might not even be possible in alpine environments with harsh winter processes. Soil water stable isotope profiles may offer a time-integrating fingerprint of subsurface water pathways. In this study, we investigated the suitability of soil water stable isotope (d18O) depth profiles to identify water flow paths along two transects of steep subalpine hillslopes in the Swiss Alps. We applied a one-dimensional advection–dispersion model using d18O values of precipitation (ranging from _24.7 to _2.9‰) as input data to simulate the d18O profiles of soil water. The variability of d18O values with depth within each soil profile and a comparison of the simulated and measured d18O profiles were used to infer information about subsurface hydrological pathways. The temporal pattern of d18O in precipitation was found in several profiles, ranging from _14.5 to _4.0‰. This suggests that vertical percolation plays an important role even at slope angles of up to 46_. Lateral subsurface flow and/or mixing of soil water at lower slope angles might occur in deeper soil layers and at sites near a small stream. The difference between several observed and simulated d18O profiles revealed spatially highly variable infiltration patterns during the snowmelt periods: The d18O value of snow (_17.7 ± 1.9‰) was absent in several measured d18O profiles but present in the respective simulated d18O profiles. This indicated overland flow and/or preferential flow through the soil profile during the melt period. The applied methods proved to be a fast and promising tool to obtain time-integrated information on soil water flow paths at the hillslope scale in steep subalpine slopes.

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.

Modelling susceptibility of grassland soil to macropore flow

Investigating preferential flow, including macropore flow, is crucial to predicting and preventing point sources of contamination in soil, for example in the vicinity of pumping wells. With a view to advancing groundwater protection, this study aimed (i) to quantify the strength of macropore flow in four representative natural grassland soils on the Swiss plateau, and (ii) to define the parameters that significantly control macropore flow in grassland soil. For each soil type we selected three measurement points on which three successive irrigation experiments were carried out, resulting in a total of 36 irrigations. The strength of macropore flow, parameterized as the cumulated water volume flowing from macropores at a depth of 1 m in response to an irrigation of 60 mm h−1 intensity and 1 h duration, was simulated using the dual-permeability MACRO model. The model calibration was based on the key soil parameters and fine measurements of water content at different depths. Modelling results indicate high performance of macropore flow in all investigated soil types except in gleysols. The volume of water that flowed from macropores and was hence expected to reach groundwater varied between 81% and 94% in brown soils, 59% and 67% in para-brown soils, 43% and 56% in acid brown soils, and 22% and 35% in gleysols. These results show that spreading pesticides and herbicides in pumping well protection zones poses a high risk of contamination and must be strictly prohibited. We also found that organic carbon content was not correlated with the strength of macropore flow, probably due to its very weak variation in our study, while saturated water content showed a negative correlation with macropore flow. The correlation between saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and macropore flow was negative as well, but weak. Macropore flow appears to be controlled by the interaction between the bulk density of the uppermost topsoil layer (0–0.10 m) and the macroporosity of the soil below. This interaction also affects the variations in Ks and saturated water content. Further investigations are needed to better understand the combined effect of all these processes including the exchange between micropore and macropore domains.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of Option B+ for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV with lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') compared with ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding only unless clinically indicated ('Option B'). DESIGN Mathematical modelling study of first and second pregnancy, informed by data from the Malawi Option B+ programme. METHODS Individual-based simulation model. We simulated cohorts of 10 000 women and their infants during two subsequent pregnancies, including the breastfeeding period, with either Option B+ or B. We parameterized the model with data from the literature and by analysing programmatic data. We compared total costs of antenatal and postnatal care, and lifetime costs and disability-adjusted life-years of the infected infants between Option B+ and Option B. RESULTS During the first pregnancy, 15% of the infants born to HIV-infected mothers acquired the infection. With Option B+, 39% of the women were on ART at the beginning of the second pregnancy, compared with 18% with Option B. For second pregnancies, the rates MTCT were 11.3% with Option B+ and 12.3% with Option B. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing the two options ranged between about US$ 500 and US$ 1300 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION Option B+ prevents more vertical transmissions of HIV than Option B, mainly because more women are already on ART at the beginning of the next pregnancy. Option B+ is a cost-effective strategy for PMTCT if the total future costs and lost lifetime of the infected infants are taken into account.

Antibiotic-Resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae Spread Faster with More Treatment, Not More Sexual Partners.

The sexually transmitted bacterium Neisseria gonorrhoeae has developed resistance to all antibiotic classes that have been used for treatment and strains resistant to multiple antibiotic classes have evolved. In many countries, there is only one antibiotic remaining for empirical N. gonorrhoeae treatment, and antibiotic management to counteract resistance spread is urgently needed. Understanding dynamics and drivers of resistance spread can provide an improved rationale for antibiotic management. In our study, we first used antibiotic resistance surveillance data to estimate the rates at which antibiotic-resistant N. gonorrhoeae spread in two host populations, heterosexual men (HetM) and men who have sex with men (MSM). We found higher rates of spread for MSM (0.86 to 2.38 y-1, mean doubling time: 6 months) compared to HetM (0.24 to 0.86 y-1, mean doubling time: 16 months). We then developed a dynamic transmission model to reproduce the observed dynamics of N. gonorrhoeae transmission in populations of heterosexual men and women (HMW) and MSM. We parameterized the model using sexual behavior data and calibrated it to N. gonorrhoeae prevalence and incidence data. In the model, antibiotic-resistant N. gonorrhoeae spread with a median rate of 0.88 y-1 in HMW and 3.12 y-1 in MSM. These rates correspond to median doubling times of 9 (HMW) and 3 (MSM) months. Assuming no fitness costs, the model shows the difference in the host population's treatment rate rather than the difference in the number of sexual partners explains the differential spread of resistance. As higher treatment rates result in faster spread of antibiotic resistance, treatment recommendations for N. gonorrhoeae should carefully balance prevention of infection and avoidance of resistance spread.

Asalariados rurales en el Valle de Uco (Mendoza, Argentina)

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la inserción laboral de los trabajadores agrícolas asalariados en el Valle de Uco, provincia de Mendoza. Partimos de entender que las características del mercado de trabajo agrícola condicionan las inserciones laborales generando prácticas sociales ocupacionales que se expresan en disposiciones, orientaciones y estrategias de estos trabajadores. Estos trabajadores se caracterizan por una inserción laboral precaria y/o inestable y la percepción de ingresos insuficientes y discontinuos, a lo que se suman las frecuentes condiciones de vulnerabilidad social de sus hogares de pertenencia. El artículo contiene una descripción de la esfera laboral en tanto campo social en que se desempeñan los trabajadores agrícolas en el Valle de Uco. Luego analizamos algunos elementos vinculados a la socialización en el trabajo, aspecto importante para comprender las relaciones sociales que fundamentan la constitución del mercado de trabajo agrícola y la construcción de las "disposiciones" de los trabajadores. En el siguiente punto describimos y analizamos algunos elementos que orientan la inserción laboral de los trabajadores agrícolas conformando sus estrategias laborales. Finalmente, analizamos la mediación del hogar en la inserción laboral de los miembros.

Asalariados rurales en el Valle de Uco (Mendoza, Argentina)

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la inserción laboral de los trabajadores agrícolas asalariados en el Valle de Uco, provincia de Mendoza. Partimos de entender que las características del mercado de trabajo agrícola condicionan las inserciones laborales generando prácticas sociales ocupacionales que se expresan en disposiciones, orientaciones y estrategias de estos trabajadores. Estos trabajadores se caracterizan por una inserción laboral precaria y/o inestable y la percepción de ingresos insuficientes y discontinuos, a lo que se suman las frecuentes condiciones de vulnerabilidad social de sus hogares de pertenencia. El artículo contiene una descripción de la esfera laboral en tanto campo social en que se desempeñan los trabajadores agrícolas en el Valle de Uco. Luego analizamos algunos elementos vinculados a la socialización en el trabajo, aspecto importante para comprender las relaciones sociales que fundamentan la constitución del mercado de trabajo agrícola y la construcción de las "disposiciones" de los trabajadores. En el siguiente punto describimos y analizamos algunos elementos que orientan la inserción laboral de los trabajadores agrícolas conformando sus estrategias laborales. Finalmente, analizamos la mediación del hogar en la inserción laboral de los miembros.

Mean air temperatures of Greenland

Melt rate and surface temperature on the Greenland ice sheet are parameterized in terms of snow accumulation, mean annual air temperatur and mean July air temperature. Melt rates are calculated using positive degree-days, and firn warming (i.e. the positive deviation of the temperature at 10-15 m depth from the mean annual air temperature) is estimated from the calculated amount of refrozen melt water in the firn. A comparison between observed and calculated melt rates shows that the parameterization provides a reasonable estimate of the present ablation rates in West Greenland between 61°N and 76°N. The average equilibrium line elevation is estimated to be about 1150 m and 1000 m for West and East Greenland respectively, which is several hundred meter lower than previous estimates. However, the total annual ablation from the ice sheet is found to be about 280 km**3 of water per year which agrees well with most other estimates. The melt-rate model predicts significant melting and consequently significant firn warming even at the highest elevations of the South Greenland ice sheet, whereas a large region of central Greenland north of 70° N experiences little or no summer melting. This agrees with the distribution of the dry snow facics as given by BENSON (1962).

Asalariados rurales en el Valle de Uco (Mendoza, Argentina)

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la inserción laboral de los trabajadores agrícolas asalariados en el Valle de Uco, provincia de Mendoza. Partimos de entender que las características del mercado de trabajo agrícola condicionan las inserciones laborales generando prácticas sociales ocupacionales que se expresan en disposiciones, orientaciones y estrategias de estos trabajadores. Estos trabajadores se caracterizan por una inserción laboral precaria y/o inestable y la percepción de ingresos insuficientes y discontinuos, a lo que se suman las frecuentes condiciones de vulnerabilidad social de sus hogares de pertenencia. El artículo contiene una descripción de la esfera laboral en tanto campo social en que se desempeñan los trabajadores agrícolas en el Valle de Uco. Luego analizamos algunos elementos vinculados a la socialización en el trabajo, aspecto importante para comprender las relaciones sociales que fundamentan la constitución del mercado de trabajo agrícola y la construcción de las "disposiciones" de los trabajadores. En el siguiente punto describimos y analizamos algunos elementos que orientan la inserción laboral de los trabajadores agrícolas conformando sus estrategias laborales. Finalmente, analizamos la mediación del hogar en la inserción laboral de los miembros.

Estimatin of roughness lengths with a ship-mounted ADCP from Knudedyb, Denmark in October 2009

The hydraulic effect of asymmetric compound bedforms on tidal currents was assessed from field measurements of flow velocity in the Knudedyb tidal inlet, Denmark. Large asymmetric bedforms with smaller superimposed ones are a common feature of sandy shallow water environments and are known to act as hydraulic roughness elements in dependence with flow direction. The presence of a flow separation zone on the bedform lee was estimated through analysis of the measured velocity directions and the calculation of the flow separation line. The Law of the Wall was used to calculate roughness lengths and shear velocities from log-linear segments sought on transect-averaged and single-location velocity profiles. During the ebb tide a permanent flow separation zone was established over the steep (10-20°) lee sides of the ebb-oriented primary bedforms, which generated a consequent drag on the flow. During the flood, no flow separation was induced by the gentle (2°) lee side of the primary bedforms except over the steepest (10°) part of the lee side where a small separation zone was sometimes observed. As a result, hydraulic roughness was only due to the superimposed bedforms. The parameterized flow separation line was found to underestimate the length of the flow separation zone of the primary bedforms. A better estimation of the presence and shape of the flow separation zone over complex bedforms in a tidal environment still needs to be determined; in particular the relationship between flow separation zone and bedform geometry (asymmetry, relative height or slope of the lee side) is unclear. This would improve the prediction of complex bedform roughness in tidal flows.

Global Fuelbed Dataset

This dataset presents the first global fuel map, containing all the parameters required to be input in the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS). The dataset was developed from different spatial variables, both based on satellite Earth observation products and fuel databases, and is comprised by a global fuelbed map and a database that includes the parameters of each fuelbed that affect fire behavior and effects. A total of 274 fuelbeds were created and parameterized, and can be input into FCCS to obtain fire potentials, surface fire behavior and carbon biomass for each fuelbed. The global fuel dataset can be used for a varied range of applications, including fire danger assessment, fire behavior estimations, fuel consumption calculations and emissions inventories.

Wet tundra polygon centers and distance between polygon centroids on Samoylov Island, Lena Delta, Siberia, Russia, with links to shape files

Subgrid processes occur in various ecosystems and landscapes but, because of their small scale, they are not represented or poorly parameterized in climate models. These local heterogeneities are often important or even fundamental for energy and carbon balances. This is especially true for northern peatlands and in particular for the polygonal tundra, where methane emissions are strongly influenced by spatial soil heterogeneities. We present a stochastic model for the surface topography of polygonal tundra using Poisson-Voronoi diagrams and we compare the results with available recent field studies. We analyze seasonal dynamics of water table variations and the landscape response under different scenarios of precipitation income. We upscale methane fluxes by using a simple idealized model for methane emission. Hydraulic interconnectivities and large-scale drainage may also be investigated through percolation properties and thresholds in the Voronoi graph. The model captures the main statistical characteristics of the landscape topography, such as polygon area and surface properties as well as the water balance. This approach enables us to statistically relate large-scale properties of the system to the main small-scale processes within the single polygons.