Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Country asymmetries, endogenous product choice and the speed of trade liberalization

In a world with two countries which differ in size, we study theimpact of (the speed of) trade liberalization on firms' profitsand total welfare of the countries involved. Firms correctlyanticipate the pace of trade liberalization and take it intoaccount when deciding on their product choices, which areendogenously determined at the beginning of the game. Competitionin the marketplace then occurs either on quantities or on prices.As long as the autarkic phase continues, local firms are nationalmonopolists. When trade liberalization occurs, firms compete in aninternational duopoly. We analyze trade effects by using twodifferent models of product differentiation. Across all thespecifications adopted (and independently of the price v. quantitycompetition hypothesis), total welfare always unambiguously riseswith the speed of trade liberalization: Possible losses by firmsare always outweighed by consumers' gains, which come under theform of lower prices, enlarged variety of higher average qualitiesavailable. The effect on profits depends on the type of industryanalyzed. Two results in particular seem to be worth of mention.With vertical product differentiation and fixed costs of qualityimprovements, the expected size of the market faced by the firmsdetermines the incentive to invest in quality. The longer the periodof autarky, the lower the possibility that the firm from the smallcountry would be producing the high quality and be the leader in theinternational market when it opens. On the contrary, when trade opensimmediately, national markets do not play any role and firms fromdifferent countries have the same opportunity to become the leader.Hence, immediate trade liberalization might be in the interest ofproducers in the small country. In general, the lower the size of thesmall country, the more likely its firm will gain from tradeliberalization. Losses from the small country firm can arise when itis relegated to low quality good production and the domestic marketsize is not very small. With horizontal product differentiation (thehomogeneous good case being a limit case of it when costs ofdifferentiation tend to infinity), investments in differentiationbenefit both firms in equal manner. Firms from the small country do notrun the risk of being relegated to a lower competitive position undertrade. As a result, they would never lose from it. Instead, firms fromthe large country may still incur losses from the opening of trade whenthe market expansion effect is low (i.e. when the country is very largerelative to the other).

Pattern of attack of a galling insect reveals an unexpected preference-performance linkage on medium-sized resources

Pattern of attack of a galling insect reveals an unexpected preference-performance linkage on medium-sized resources. The Plant Vigor Hypothesis (PVH) predicts oviposition preference and higher offspring performance on longer and fast-growing shoots, and although several studies have tested its predictions, long-term studies concerning the patterns of host selection by galling species are still lacking. The PVH was tested in this study using Bauhinia brevipes (Fabaceae) as the host of a leaf gall midge, Asphondylia microcapillata (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae) during three consecutive years. Shoots were collected from the same 80 plants between 2001 and 2003 and shoot length, number of healthy and galled leaves, gall number, and mortality factors were recorded. Nearly 600 galls were found on the 5,800 shoots collected. Medium-sized shoots supported from 46 to 70% of all galls, with greater gall survival rate in 2002 and 2003. A decrease in parasitism rate coupled with an increase in gall predation lead to a constant similar gall survivorship rate in all years (x = 22.7%). Although gall abundance varied among years (122 in 2001, 114 in 2002 and 359 in 2003) preference for longer shoots was not observed because the percentage of galled shoots and galled leaves were higher on medium shoot length classes in all years. The observed distribution of gall abundance and galled shoots were always greater than the expected distribution on medium shoot length classes. These findings do not support the PVH, and show that A. microcapillata can maximize the female preference and larval performance on medium-sized shoots of B. brevipes.

Generation of the primary hair follicle pattern.

Hair follicles are spaced apart from one another at regular intervals through the skin. Although follicles are predominantly epidermal structures, classical tissue recombination experiments indicated that the underlying dermis defines their location during development. Although many molecules involved in hair follicle formation have been identified, the molecular interactions that determine the emergent property of pattern formation have remained elusive. We have used embryonic skin cultures to dissect signaling responses and patterning outcomes as the skin spatially organizes itself. We find that ectodysplasin receptor (Edar)-bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) signaling and transcriptional interactions are central to generation of the primary hair follicle pattern, with restriction of responsiveness, rather than localization of an inducing ligand, being the key driver in this process. The crux of this patterning mechanism is rapid Edar-positive feedback in the epidermis coupled with induction of dermal BMP4/7. The BMPs in turn repress epidermal Edar and hence follicle fate. Edar activation also induces connective tissue growth factor, an inhibitor of BMP signaling, allowing BMP action only at a distance from their site of synthesis. Consistent with this model, transgenic hyperactivation of Edar signaling leads to widespread overproduction of hair follicles. This Edar-BMP activation-inhibition mechanism appears to operate alongside a labile prepattern, suggesting that Edar-mediated stabilization of beta-catenin active foci is a key event in determining definitive follicle locations.

Assessment of speed of human locomotion using a differential satellite global positioning system.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore whether a satellite-based navigation system, global positioning system used in differential mode (DGPS), could accurately assess the speed of running in humans. METHODS: A subject was equipped with a portable GPS receptor coupled to a receiver for differential corrections, while running outdoors on a straight asphalt road at 27 different speeds. Actual speed (reference method) was assessed by chronometry. RESULTS: The accuracy of speed prediction had a standard deviation (SD) of 0.08 km x h(-1) for walking, 0.11 km x h(-1) for running, yielding a coefficient of variation (SD/mean) of 1.38% and 0.82%, respectively. There was a highly significant linear relationship between actual and DGPS speed assessment (r2 = 0.999) with little bias in the prediction equation, because the slope of the regression line was close to unity (0.997). CONCLUSION: the DGPS technique appears to be a valid and inconspicuous tool for "on line" monitoring of the speed of displacement of individuals located on any field on earth, for prolonged periods of time and unlimited distance, but only in specific environmental conditions ("open sky"). Furthermore, the accuracy of speed assessment using the differential GPS mode was improved by a factor of 10 as compared to non-differential GPS.

GPS analysis of human locomotion: further evidence for long-range correlations in stride-to-stride fluctuations of gait parameters.

During free walking, gait is automatically adjusted to provide optimal mechanical output and minimal energy expenditure; gait parameters, such as cadence, fluctuate from one stride to the next around average values. It was described that this fluctuation exhibited long-range correlations and fractal-like patterns. In addition, it was suggested that these long-range correlations disappeared if the participant followed the beep of metronome to regulate his or her pace. Until now, these fractal fluctuations were only observed for stride interval, because no technique existed to adequately analyze an extended time of free walking. The aim of the present study was to measure walking speed (WS), step frequency (SF) and step length (SL) with high accuracy (<1 cm) satellite positioning method (global positioning system or GPS) in order to detect long-range correlations in the stride-to-stride fluctuations. Eight participants walked 30 min under free and constrained (metronome) conditions. Under free walking conditions, DFA (detrended fluctuation analysis) and surrogate data tests showed that the fluctuation of WS, SL and SF exhibited a fractal pattern (i.e., scaling exponent alpha: 0.5 < alpha < 1) in a large majority of participants (7/8). Under constrained conditions (metronome), SF fluctuations became significantly anti-correlated (alpha < 0.5) in all participants. However, the scaling exponent of SL and WS was not modified. We conclude that, when the walking pace is controlled by an auditory signal, the feedback loop between the planned movement (at supraspinal level) and the sensory inputs induces a continual shifting of SF around the mean (persistent anti-correlation), but with no effect on the fluctuation dynamics of the other parameters (SL, WS).

Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

A new species of Homalocerus Schoenherr from the Atlantic coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Coleoptera, Belidae, Belinae), with notes on color pattern and on the sclerites of the internal sac

A new species of Homalocerus Schoenherr from the Atlantic coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Coleoptera, Belidae, Belinae), with notes on color pattern and on the sclerites of the internal sac. Homalocerus bimaculatus sp. nov. (type locality: Brazil, São Paulo) is described and illustrated, and comments on the sclerites of the internal sac of aedeagus and on color pattern are provided. The new species is compared to other similar species of the genus, being distinguished by having three clusters of carmine pubescence on pronotum and two lateral whitish oval spots located slightly before the middle of each elytron. Six species of Homalocerus, including the new one, are known from the State of São Paulo. The previously published identification key for species of Homalocerus is updated to include H. bimaculatus.

Speed Limit Questions? Here’s Your Answer, July 6, 2005

Iowa’s speed regulations are based on the same basic speed law that is used in all 50 states: “Any person driving a motor vehicle on a highway shall drive the same at a careful and prudent speed not greater than nor less than is reasonable and proper, having due regard to the traffic, surface, and width of the highway and of any other conditions then existing, and no person shall drive any vehicle upon a highway at a speed greater than will permit the person to bring it to a stop within the assured clear distance ahead, such driver having the right to assume, however, that all persons using said highway will observe the law.” Statutory limits are based on the concept that uniform categories of highways can be traveled safely at certain preset maximum speeds under ideal conditions. Whether the speed limit is posted or unposted, drivers should reduce their speed below these values in poor weather, heavy traffic, and under other potentially hazardous conditions.

Determination of sea surface salinity and wind speed by L-band microwave radiometry from a fixed platform

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture andOcean Salinity (SMOS) mission aims at obtaining global maps ofsoil moisture and sea surface salinity from space for large-scale andclimatic studies. It uses an L-band (1400–1427 MHz) MicrowaveInterferometric Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis to measurebrightness temperature of the earth’s surface at horizontal andvertical polarizations ( h and v). These two parameters will beused together to retrieve the geophysical parameters. The retrievalof salinity is a complex process that requires the knowledge ofother environmental information and an accurate processing ofthe radiometer measurements. Here, we present recent resultsobtained from several studies and field experiments that were partof the SMOS mission, and highlight the issues still to be solved.

Cerebellar cleft: confirmation of the neuroimaging pattern.

We recently described the neuroimaging and clinical findings in 6 children with cerebellar clefts and proposed that they result from disruptive changes following prenatal cerebellar hemorrhage. We now report an additional series of 9 patients analyzing the clinical and neuroimaging findings. The clefts were located in the left cerebellar hemisphere in 5 cases, in the right in 3, and bilaterally in one child who had bilateral cerebellar hemorrhages as a preterm infant at 30 weeks gestation. In one patient born at 24 weeks of gestation a unilateral cerebellar hemorrhage has been found at the age of 4 months. Other findings included disordered alignment of the folia and fissures, an irregular gray/white matter junction, and abnormal arborization of the white matter in all cases. Supratentorial abnormalities were found in 4 cases. All but 2 patients were born at term. We confirm the distinct neuroimaging pattern of cerebellar clefts. Considering the documented fetal cerebellar hemorrhage in our first series, we postulate that cerebellar clefts usually represent residual disruptive changes after a prenatal cerebellar hemorrhage. Exceptionally, as now documented in 2 patients, cerebellar clefts can be found after neonatal cerebellar hemorrhages in preterm infants. The short-term outcome in these children was variable.

How useful is satellite positioning system (GPS) to track gait parameters? A review.

Over the last century, numerous techniques have been developed to analyze the movement of humans while walking and running. The combined use of kinematics and kinetics methods, mainly based on high speed video analysis and forceplate, have permitted a comprehensive description of locomotion process in terms of energetics and biomechanics. While the different phases of a single gait cycle are well understood, there is an increasing interest to know how the neuro-motor system controls gait form stride to stride. Indeed, it was observed that neurodegenerative diseases and aging could impact gait stability and gait parameters steadiness. From both clinical and fundamental research perspectives, there is therefore a need to develop techniques to accurately track gait parameters stride-by-stride over a long period with minimal constraints to patients. In this context, high accuracy satellite positioning can provide an alternative tool to monitor outdoor walking. Indeed, the high-end GPS receivers provide centimeter accuracy positioning with 5-20 Hz sampling rate: this allows the stride-by-stride assessment of a number of basic gait parameters--such as walking speed, step length and step frequency--that can be tracked over several thousand consecutive strides in free-living conditions. Furthermore, long-range correlations and fractal-like pattern was observed in those time series. As compared to other classical methods, GPS seems a promising technology in the field of gait variability analysis. However, relative high complexity and expensiveness--combined with a usability which requires further improvement--remain obstacles to the full development of the GPS technology in human applications.

Dispersal probability distributions and the wave-front speed problem

The speed and width of front solutions to reaction-dispersal models are analyzed both analytically and numerically. We perform our analysis for Laplace and Gaussian distribution kernels, both for delayed and nondelayed models. The results are discussed in terms of the characteristic parameters of the models

Implementació de la metodologia Scrum en una empresa de desenvolupament de Software

L’organització de la producció és sempre un factor clau en qualsevol empresa. No hi ha cap fórmula magistral que pugui servir per a tothom, perquè aquesta és molt depenent del sector i de la mida. Softvic S.A., l’empresa on treballo, em va demanar que implantés un sistema d’organització adequat a una empresa de desenvolupament de Software. Les empreses d’aquesta tipologia tenen dues característiques diferenciadores respecte una empresa de fabricació: les feines es fan una única vegada i es redefineixen freqüentment els projectes a fer al futur. És a dir, els requisits són inestables i requereixen rapidesa i flexibilitat. Actualment, Softvic S.A. ja té la ISO 9001:2008 al departament de programació. Aquesta ISO contempla com es creen les ordres de programació (OP) i ordres d’incidència (OI) i com es registra i avalua la feina realitzada. L’objectiu és implantar una metodologia que s’encarregui de la part anterior a aquesta, és a dir, definir les feines a fer en un període. Això s’ha d’integrar perfectament amb la part ja recolzada per la ISO. Per aquest fet es va escollir la metodologia Scrum que complia tots els requisits esmentats i estava contrastada per diferents empreses del món del Software. Primerament es van fer proves en les quals es guardava la informació en un Excel i s’imprimien manualment les feines a realitzar. Un cop es va haver decidit quina informació era útil i quina no en el cas de Softvic, es va crear una base de dades amb les taules i camps necessaris. Per treballar de forma més còmoda es va fer posteriorment un programa per a mantenir les dades i un formulari per imprimir etiquetes. A mesura que hem anat utilitzant la metodologia Scrum, hem anat ajustant aspectes cap on hem cregut convenient pel nostre cas en particular.

Isolated bilateral zygomatic arch fracture: an unusual pattern.

Isolated fractures of the zygomatic arch represent 5% to 14% of all zygomatic complex fractures. Bilateral isolated zygomatic arch fractures, which are defined as fractures of both zygomatic arches without any other facial fracture, are extremely rare. In this case report, we present a rare case of this facial fracture pattern.