Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

A traffic differentiation add-on to the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol: implementation and experimental validation over a real-time operating system

The IEEE 802.15.4 is the most widespread used protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and it is being used as a baseline for several higher layer protocols such as ZigBee, 6LoWPAN or WirelessHART. Its MAC (Medium Access Control) supports both contention-free (CFP, based on the reservation of guaranteed time-slots GTS) and contention based (CAP, ruled by CSMA/CA) access, when operating in beacon-enabled mode. Thus, it enables the differentiation between real-time and best-effort traffic. However, some WSN applications and higher layer protocols may strongly benefit from the possibility of supporting more traffic classes. This happens, for instance, for dense WSNs used in time-sensitive industrial applications. In this context, we propose to differentiate traffic classes within the CAP, enabling lower transmission delays and higher success probability to timecritical messages, such as for event detection, GTS reservation and network management. Building upon a previously proposed methodology (TRADIF), in this paper we outline its implementation and experimental validation over a real-time operating system. Importantly, TRADIF is fully backward compatible with the IEEE 802.15.4 standard, enabling to create different traffic classes just by tuning some MAC parameters.

Real-time communications over wired/wireless PROFIBUS networks supporting inter-cell mobility

PROFIBUS is an international standard (IEC 61158, EN 50170) for factory-floor communications, with several thousands of installations worldwide. Taking into account the increasing need for mobile devices in industrial environments, one obvious solution is to extend traditional wired PROFIBUS networks with wireless capabilities. In this paper, we outline the major aspects of a hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS-based architecture, where most of the design options were made in order to guarantee the real-time behaviour of the overall network. We also introduce the timing unpredictability problems resulting from the co-existence of heterogeneous physical media in the same network. However, the major focus of this paper is on how to guarantee real-time communications in such a hybrid network, where nodes (and whole segments) can move between different radio cells (inter-cell mobility). Assuming a simple mobility management mechanism based on mobile nodes performing periodic radio channel assessment and switching, we propose a methodology to compute values for specific parameters that enable an optimal (minimum) and bounded duration of the handoff procedure.

Zigbee over tinyos: Implementation and experimental challenges

The IEEE 802.15.4/Zigbee protocols are a promising technology for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). This paper shares our experience on the implementation and use of these protocols and related technologies in WSNs. We present problems and challenges we have been facing in implementing an IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee stack for TinyOS in a two-folded perspective: IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee protocol standards limitations (ambiguities and open issues) and technological limitations (hardware and software). Concerning the former, we address challenges for building scalable and synchronized multi-cluster ZigBee networks, providing a trade-off between timeliness and energy-efficiency. On the latter issue, we highlight implementation problems in terms of hardware, timer handling and operating system limitations. We also report on our experience from experimental test-beds, namely on physical layer aspects such as coexistence problems between IEEE 802.15.4 and 802.11 radio channels.

Static-priority scheduling over wireless networks with multiple broadcast domains

We propose a wireless medium access control (MAC) protocol that provides static-priority scheduling of messages in a guaranteed collision-free manner. Our protocol supports multiple broadcast domains, resolves the wireless hidden terminal problem and allows for parallel transmissions across a mesh network. Arbitration of messages is achieved without the notion of a master coordinating node, global clock synchronization or out-of-band signaling. The protocol relies on bit-dominance similar to what is used in the CAN bus except that in order to operate on a wireless physical layer, nodes are not required to receive incoming bits while transmitting. The use of bit-dominance efficiently allows for a much larger number of priorities than would be possible using existing wireless solutions. A MAC protocol with these properties enables schedulability analysis of sporadic message streams in wireless multihop networks.

Real-time communications over cluster-tree sensor networks with mobile sink behaviour

Modelling the fundamental performance limits of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is of paramount importance to understand the behaviour of WSN under worst case conditions and to make the appropriate design choices. In that direction, this paper contributes with a methodology for modelling cluster tree WSNs with a mobile sink. We propose closed form recurrent expressions for computing the worst case end to end delays, buffering and bandwidth requirements across any source-destination path in the cluster tree assuming error free channel. We show how to apply our theoretical results to the specific case of IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee WSNs. Finally, we demonstrate the validity and analyze the accuracy of our methodology through a comprehensive experimental study, therefore validating the theoretical results through experimentation.

HIV/AIDS knowledge among men who have sex with men: applying the item response theory

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the level of HIV/AIDS knowledge among men who have sex with men in Brazil using the latent trait model estimated by Item Response Theory. METHODS Multicenter, cross-sectional study, carried out in ten Brazilian cities between 2008 and 2009. Adult men who have sex with men were recruited (n = 3,746) through Respondent Driven Sampling. HIV/AIDS knowledge was ascertained through ten statements by face-to-face interview and latent scores were obtained through two-parameter logistic modeling (difficulty and discrimination) using Item Response Theory. Differential item functioning was used to examine each item characteristic curve by age and schooling. RESULTS Overall, the HIV/AIDS knowledge scores using Item Response Theory did not exceed 6.0 (scale 0-10), with mean and median values of 5.0 (SD = 0.9) and 5.3, respectively, with 40.7% of the sample with knowledge levels below the average. Some beliefs still exist in this population regarding the transmission of the virus by insect bites, by using public restrooms, and by sharing utensils during meals. With regard to the difficulty and discrimination parameters, eight items were located below the mean of the scale and were considered very easy, and four items presented very low discrimination parameter (< 0.34). The absence of difficult items contributed to the inaccuracy of the measurement of knowledge among those with median level and above. CONCLUSIONS Item Response Theory analysis, which focuses on the individual properties of each item, allows measures to be obtained that do not vary or depend on the questionnaire, which provides better ascertainment and accuracy of knowledge scores. Valid and reliable scales are essential for monitoring HIV/AIDS knowledge among the men who have sex with men population over time and in different geographic regions, and this psychometric model brings this advantage.

HIV risk practices by female sex workers according to workplace

OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

Energy-Aware Routing And Grooming For IP Transport Over WDM MLR Networks

In this work a mixed integer optimization linear programming (MILP) model was applied to mixed line rate (MLR) IP over WDM and IP over OTN over WDM (with and without OTN grooming) networks, with aim to reduce network energy consumption. Energy-aware and energy-aware & short-path routing techniques were used. Simulations were made based on a real network topology as well as on forecasts of traffic matrix based on statistical data from 2005 up to 2017. Energy aware routing optimization model on IPoWDM network, showed the lowest energy consumption along all years, and once compared with energy-aware & short-path routing, has led to an overall reduction in energy consumption up to 29%, expecting to save even more than shortest-path routing. © 2014 IEEE.

Handling random errors and biases in methods used for short-term dietary assessment

Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.

Biodiesel production over lithium modified lime catalysts: activity and deactivation

Biodiesel production by methanolysis of semi-refined rapeseed oil was studied over lime based catalysts. In order to improve the catalysts basicity a commercial CaO material was impregnated with aqueous solution of lithium nitrate (Li/Ca = 03 atomic ratio). The catalysts were calcined at 575 degrees C and 800 degrees C, for 5 h, to remove nitrate ions before reaction. The XRD patterns of the fresh catalysts, including the bare CaO, showed lines ascribable to CaO and Ca(OH)(2). The absence of XRD lines belonging to Li phases confirms the efficient dispersion of Li over CaO. In the tested condition (W-cat/W-oil = 5%; CH3OH/oil = 12 molar ratio) all the fresh catalysts provided similar biodiesel yields (FAME >93% after 4 h) but the bare CaO catalyst was more stable. The activity decay of the Li modified samples can be related to the enhanced, by the higher basicity, calcium diglyceroxide formation during methanolysis which promotes calcium leaching. The calcination temperature for Li modified catalysts plays an important role since encourages the crystals sinterization which appears to improve the catalyst stability. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in alcohol and tobacco use among Brazilian students: 1989 to 2010

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends of the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use among Brazilian students. METHODS We analyzed data published between 1989 and 2010 from five epidemiological surveys on students from the 6th to the 12th grade of public schools from the ten largest state capitals of Brazil. The total sample consisted of 104,104 students and data were collected in classrooms. The same collection tool – a World Health Organization self-reporting questionnaire – and sampling and weighting procedures were used in the five surveys. The Chi-square test for trend was used to compare the prevalence from different years. RESULTS The prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use varied among the years and cities studied. Alcohol consumption decreased in the 10 state capitals (p < 0.001) throughout 21 years. Tobacco use also decreased significantly in eight cities (p < 0.001). The highest prevalence of alcohol use was found in the Southeast region in 1993 (72.8%, in Belo Horizonte) and the lowest one in Belem (30.6%) in 2010. The highest past-year prevalence of tobacco use was found in the South region in 1997 (28.0%, in Curitiba) and the lowest one in the Southeast in 2010 (7.8%, in Sao Paulo). CONCLUSIONS The decreasing trend in the prevalence of tobacco and alcohol use among students detected all over the Country can be related to the successful and comprehensive Brazilian antitobacco and antialcohol policies. Despite these results, the past-year prevalence of alcohol consumption in the past year remained high in all Brazilian regions.

Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.

ERICA: smoking prevalence in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalences of tobacco use, tobacco experimentation, and frequent smoking among Brazilian adolescents. METHODS We evaluated participants of the cross-sectional, nation-wide, school-based Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), which included 12- to 17-year-old adolescents from municipalities of over 100 thousand inhabitants. The study sample had a clustered, stratified design and was representative of the whole country, its geographical regions, and all 27 state capitals. The information was obtained with self-administered questionnaires. Tobacco experimentation was defined as having tried cigarettes at least once in life. Adolescents who had smoked on at least one day over the previous 30 days were considered current cigarette smokers. Having smoked cigarettes for at least seven consecutive days was an indicator for regular consumption of tobacco. Considering the complex sampling design, prevalences and 95% confidence intervals were estimated according to sociodemographic and socio-environmental characteristics. RESULTS We evaluated 74,589 adolescents. Among these, 18.5% (95%CI 17.7-19.4) had smoked at least once in life, 5.7% (95%CI 5.3-6.2) smoked at the time of the research, and 2.5% (95%CI 2.2-2.8) smoked often. Adolescents aged 15 to 17 years had higher prevalences for all indicators than those aged 12 to 14 years. The prevalences did not differ significantly between sexes. The highest prevalences were found in the South region and the lowest ones, in the Northeast region. Regardless of sex, the prevalences were found to be higher for adolescents who had had paid jobs, who lived with only one parent, and who reported having been in contact with smokers either inside or outside their homes. Female public school adolescents were found to smoke more than the ones from private schools. CONCLUSIONS Tobacco use among adolescents is still a challenge. Intending to reduce the prevalence of tobacco use among young people, especially the ones under socioeconomic vulnerability conditions, Brazil must consolidate and increase effective public health care measures.

Deep structure of crust and mantle beneath Iberia and Western Mediterranean from P and S Receiver functions and SKS Waveforms

We have conducted a P and S receiver functions [PRFs and SRFs] analysis for 19 seismic stations on the Iberia and western Mediterranean. In the transition zone [TZ] the PRFs analysis reveals a band [from Gibraltar to Balearic] increased by 10-20 km relative to the standard 250 km. The TZ thickness variations are strongly correlated with the P660s times in PRFs. We interpret the variable depth of the 660-km discontinuity as an effect of subduction. Over the anomalous TZ we found a reduced velocity zone in the upper mantle. Joint inversion of PRFs and SRFs reveals a subcrustal high S velocity lid and an underlying LVZ. A reduction of the S velocity in the LVZ is less than 10%. The Gutenberg discontinuity is located at 65±5 km, but in several models sampling the Mediterranean, the lid is missing or its thickness is reduced to ~30 km. In the Gibraltar and North Africa this boundary is located at ~100 km. The lid Vp/Vs beneath Betics is reduced relative to the standard 1.8. Another evidence of the Vp/Vs anomaly is provided by S410p phase late arrivals in the SRFs. The azimuthal anisotropy analysis with a new technology was conducted at 5 stations and at 2 groups of stations. The fast direction in the uppermost mantle layer is ~90º in Iberian Massif. In Balearic is in the azimuth of ~120º. At a depth of ~60 km the direction becomes 90º. Anisotropy in the upper layer can be interpreted as frozen, whereas anisotropy in the lower layer is active, corresponding to the present-day or recent flow. The effect of the asthenosphere in the SKS splitting is much larger than the effect of the subcrustal lithosphere.