978 resultados para Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Coral Reef Ecosystem Reserve (Hawaii)


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The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

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Khark & Kharko Islands are the last Northern point for fringing coral reefs in Iranian side of the Persian Gulf. These Coralline habitats are the Protected Area and Wildlife Refugees with the total area of 2400 ha which located in the territory of Bushehr Province. This research carried out during 2006-2007 with monthly sampling from 12 stations, which selected around Islands and inshore waters with maximum depth of 20 meter. Sampling was conducted using by Bongo-Net plankton sampler with 500μ of mesh size. Totally, 1808 specimen from 45 family fish larvae was identified in studied area, including: 21 coralline fish larva families and 24 shore fish larvae such as pelagic and demersal fishes which some of them known as indicator, sentinel or endemic species for coral reef ecosystems. The results was shown that coral reef diversity in coral reefs (Khark & Kharko Islands) is more than other habitats such as estuary and river mouth, creeks, mangrove forest sites, and off shore water of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Iranian side. Among Identified families, Clupeidae, Blenniidae, Sillaginidae, Atherinidae and Tripterygiidae; with more abundance were dominant families in studied area. The pick of fish larvae abundance family were estimated in spring. There were significant differences between seasonally abundance and sub areas, but there were not significant differences in diversity indexes between Khark and Kharko stations with coastal stations (p< 0.05). The mean abundance of fish larvae were estimated 18.7083 larvae under 10m² of sea surface, and the mean diversity indexes and evenness were estimated 0.7135 and 0.565342 consequently, that was showed the area is under ecological stress for fish larvae, and wasn’t stable. Therefore, from the ecological point of view, only some of the fish larvae groups as like Clupeidae were dominant. Thus, they were the main cause of the fish larvae abundance change in studied area. Due to geographical location of Khark and Kharko Islands and among the environmental parameters, Its seems that the condition of sea current is the main cause for present or absent and distribution patterns of fish larvae in area. Abundance of fish larvae in west of Islands was higher than eastern parts in the spring. But this condition will be reversed in eastern part of Island and several coastal stations, so that the Islands surrounding clock wise current to cause fish larvae distribution patterns.

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A literature review was conducted to locate information on the flow of energy from primary producers to the fishery stocks of the Puerto Rican-Virgin Islands insular shelf. This report uses site-specific information to describe the major ecological subsystems, or habitats, of the region, to identify the more common species and the subsystems in which they occur, to quantify productivity and biomass, and to outline trophic relationships. Discussions on each topic and subsystem vary in substance and detail, being limited by the availability and accessibility of information. (PDF contains 189 pages) Seven distinct subsystems are described: mangrove estuary, seagrass bed, coral reef, algal plain, sand/mud bottom, shelf break, and overlying pelagic. Over 50 tables provide lists of species found in each habitat on various surveys dating back to 1956. Estimates of density, relative abundance, and productivity are provided when possible. We evaluated whether sufficient information exists to support an analysis of the energy basis of fishery production in the area, beginning with the design and development of an ecosystem model. Data needs in three categories - species lists, biomass, and trophic relations - were examined for each subsystem and for each of three species groups - primary producers, invertebrates, and fish. We concluded that adequate data, sufficient for modeling purposes, are available in 16 (25%) of 64 categories; limited data, those requiring greater extrapolation, are available in 35 (55%) categories; and no data are available in 13 (20%) categories. The best-studied subsystems are seagrass beds and coral reefs, with at least limited data in all categories. Invertebrates, the intermediate link in the food web between primary producers and fishes, are the least quantified group in the region. Primary production and fishes, however, are relatively well-studied, providing sufficient data to support an ecosystem-level analysis and to initiate a modeling effort.

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Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.)

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Submersible surveys at numerous reefs and banks in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (NWGOM) were conducted as part of the Sustainable Seas Expedition (SSE) during July/August 2002 to identify reef fish communities, characterize benthic habitats, and identify deep coral reef ecosystems. To identify the spatial extent of hard bottom reef communities, the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mapped approximately 2000 km2 of the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (NWGOM) continental shelf during June 2002 with high-resolution multibeam bathymetry. Previous investigations conducted on the features of interest (with the exceptions of East and West Flower Garden and Sonnier Banks, accessible by SCUBA) had not been conducted since the 1970s and 1980s, and did not have the use of high-resolution maps to target survey sites. The base maps were instrumental in navigating submersibles to specific features at each study site during the Sustainable Seas Expedition (SSE)—a submersible effort culminating from a partnership between the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and the National Geographic Society (NGS). We report the initial findings of our submersible surveys, including habitat and reef fish diversity at McGrail, Alderdice, and Sonnier Banks. A total of 120 species and 40,724 individuals were identified from video surveys at the three banks. Planktivorous fishes constituted over 87% by number for the three banks, ranging from 81.4% at Sonnier Banks to 94.3% at Alderdice Bank, indicating a direct link to pelagic prey communities, particularly in the deep reef zones. High numbers of groupers, snappers, jacks, and other fishery species were observed on all three features. These sites were nominated as Habitat Areas of Particular Concern (HAPC) by the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Council in March 2004. Data obtained during this project will contribute to benthic habitat characterization and assessment of the associated fish communities through future SCUBA, ROV, and submersible missions, and allow comparisons to other deep reef ecosystems found throughout the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean.

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The fishery for deepwater precious corals in the Hawaiian Islands has experienced an on-and-off history for almost 40 years. In spite of this, research, driven primarily by the precious coral jewelry industry, remains active. In this paper, the results of deepwater surveys in 2000 and 2001 are reported. In summary, a new bed on the summit of Cross Seamount is described and revised estimates of MSY’s for pink coral, Corallium secundum; red coral, Corallium regale; and gold coral, Ger ardia sp., in the two known beds off Makapuu, Oahu, and Keahole Point, Hawaii, in the main Hawaiian Islands, are presented. The population dynamics of each species is described, as well as their ecological limits on Hawaii’s deep reefs, island shelves, and seamounts. The local supply of precious coral in the main Hawaiian Islands is sufficient to support the local industry, but cost/ benefits of selective harvest requirements and weather constraints limit profitability of the fish

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This guide was developed to document the process and activities that WorldFish staff have used and adapted as facilitators working with communities interested in marine resource management in Solomon Islands. It draws on the experiences from work conducted with FSPI and MFMR through ACIAR funded projects, with communities that had a primary interest in the management of coral reef fisheries. Since 2011 the process has been trialed and adapted further with communities interested in mangrove ecosystem management (through the MESCAL project). This guide is based on lessons about the process of a community developing, writing and implementing a management plan. This guide does not cover lessons about the outcomes of that management.

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This Freely Associated States Shallow-water Coral Ecosystem Mapping Implementation Plan (FAS MIP) presents a framework for the development of shallow-water (~0–40 m; 0–22 fm) benthic habitat and possibly bathymetric maps of critical areas of the Freely Associated States (FAS). The FAS is made up of three self-governing groups of islands and atolls—the Republic of Palau (Palau), the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI)—that are affiliated with the United States through Compacts of Free Association. This MIP was developed with extensive input from colleges, national and state regulatory and management agencies, federal agencies, non-governmental organizations, and individuals involved in or supporting the conservation and management of the FAS’s coral ecosystems. A list of organizations and individuals that provided input to the development of this MIP is provided in Appendix 1. This MIP has been developed to complement the Coral Reef Mapping Implementation Plan (2nd Draft) released in 1999 by the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force’s Mapping and Information Synthesis Working Group. That plan focused on mapping United States and FAS shallow-water (then defined as <30 m) coral reefs by 2009, based on available funding and geographic priorities, using primarily visual interpretation of aerial photography and satellite imagery. This MIP focuses on mapping the shallow-water (now defined as 0–40 m, rather than 0–30 m) coral ecosystems of the FAS using a suite of technologies and map development procedures. Both this FAS MIP and the 1999 Coral Reef Mapping Implementation Plan (2nd Draft) support to goals of the National Action Plan to Conserve Coral Reefs (U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, 2000). This FAS MIP presents a framework for mapping the coral ecosystems of the FAS and should be considered an evolving document. As priorities change, funding opportunities arise, new data are collected, and new technologies become available, the information presented herein will change.

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NOAA’s Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Branch has mapped and characterized large portions of the coral reef ecosystems inside the U.S. coastal and territorial waters, including the U.S. Caribbean. The complementary protocols used in these efforts have enabled scientists and managers to quantitatively compare different marine ecosystems in tropical U.S. waters. The Biogeography Branch used these same general protocols to generate three seamless habitat maps of the Bank/Shelf (i.e., from 0 ≤50 meters) and the Bank/Shelf Escarpment (i.e., from 50 ≤1,000 meters and from 1,000 ≤ 1,830 meters) inside Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM). While this mapping effort marks the fourth time that the shallow-water habitats of BIRNM have been mapped, it is the first time habitats deeper than 30 meters (m) have been characterized. Consequently, this habitat map provides information on the distribution of mesophotic and deep-water coral reef ecosystems and serves as a spatial baseline for monitoring change in the Monument. A benthic habitat map was developed for approximately 74.3 square kilometers or 98% of the BIRNM using a combination of semi-automated and manual classification methods. The remaining 2% was not mapped due to lack of imagery in the western part of the Monument at depths ranging from 1,000 to 1,400 meters. Habitats were interpreted from orthophotographs, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) imagery and four different types of MBES (Multibeam Echosounder) imagery. Three minimum mapping units (MMUs) (100, 1,000 and 5,000 square meters) were used because of the wide range of depths present in the Monument. The majority of the area that was characterized was deeper than 30 m on the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. This escarpment area was dominated by uncolonized sand which transitioned to mud as depth increased. Bedrock was exposed in some areas of the escarpment, where steep slopes prevented sediment deposition. Mesophotic corals were seen in the underwater video, but were too sparsely distributed to be reliably mapped from the source imagery. Habitats on the Bank/Shelf were much more variable than those seen on the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. The majority of this shelf area was comprised of coral reef and hardbottom habitat dominated by various forms of turf, fleshy, coralline or filamentous algae. Even though algae was the dominant biological cover type, nearly a quarter (24.3%) of the Monument’s Bank/Shelf benthos hosted a cover of 10%-<50% live coral. In total, 198 unique combinations of habitat classes describing the geography, geology and biology of the sea-floor were identified from the three types of imagery listed above. No thematic accuracy assessment was conducted for areas deeper than about 50 meters, most of which was located in the Bank/Shelf Escarpment. The thematic accuracy of classes in waters shallower than approximately 50 meters ranged from 81.4% to 94.4%. These thematic accuracies are similar to those reported for other NOAA benthic habitat mapping efforts in St. John (>80%), the Main Eight Hawaiian Islands (>84.0%) and the Republic of Palau (>80.0%). These digital maps products can be used with confidence by scientists and resource managers for a multitude of different applications, including structuring monitoring programs, supporting management decisions, and establishing and managing marine conservation areas. The final deliverables for this project, including the benthic habitat maps, source imagery and in situ field data, are available to the public on a NOAA Biogeography Branch website (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/ecosystems/coralreef/stcroix.aspx) and through an interactive, web-based map application (http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/explorer/biomapper/biomapper.html?id=BUIS). This report documents the process and methods used to create the shallow to deep-water benthic habitat maps for BIRNM. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to BIRNM, including its history, marine life and ongoing research activities. Chapter 2 describes the benthic habitat classification scheme used to partition the different habitats into ecologically relevant groups. Chapter 3 explains the steps required to create a benthic habitat map using a combination of semi-automated and visual classification techniques. Chapter 4 details the steps used in the accuracy assessment and reports on the thematic accuracy of the final shallow-water map. Chapter 5 summarizes the type and abundance of each habitat class found inside BIRNM, how these habitats compare to past habitat maps and outlines how these new habitat maps may be used to inform future management activities.

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NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation program (CRCP) develops coral reef management priorities by bringing together various partners to better understand threats to coral reef ecosystems with the goal of conserving, protecting and restoring these resources. Place-based and ecosystem-based management approaches employed by CRCP require that spatially explicit information about benthic habitats and fish utilization are available to characterize coral reef ecosystems and set conservation priorities. To accomplish this, seafloor habitat mapping of coral reefs around the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) and Puerto Rico has been ongoing since 2004. In 2008, fishery acoustics surveys were added to NOAA survey missions in the USVI and Puerto Rico to assess fish distribution and abundance in relation to benthic habitats in high priority conservation areas. NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) have developed fisheries acoustics survey capabilities onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster to complement the CRCP seafloor habitat mapping effort spearheaded by the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB). The integration of these activities has evolved on the Nancy Foster over the three years summarized in this report. A strategy for improved operations and products has emerged over that time. Not only has the concurrent operation of multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys been beneficial in terms of optimizing ship time and resources, this joint effort has advanced an integrated approach to characterizing bottom and mid-water habitats and the fishes associated with them. CCMA conducts multibeam surveys to systematically map and characterize coral reef ecosystems, resulting in products such as high resolution bathymetric maps, backscatter information, and benthic habitat classification maps. These products focus on benthic features and live bottom habitats associated with them. NCCOS Centers (the Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research) characterize coral reef ecosystems by using fisheries acoustics methods to capture biological information through the entire water column. Spatially-explicit information on marine resources derived from fisheries acoustics surveys, such as maps of fish density, supports marine spatial planning strategies and decision making by providing a biological metric for evaluating coral reef ecosystems and assessing impacts from pollution, fishing pressure, and climate change. Data from fisheries acoustics surveys address management needs by providing a measure of biomass in management areas, detecting spatial and temporal responses in distribution relative to natural and anthropogenic impacts, and identifying hotspots that support high fish abundance or fish aggregations. Fisheries acoustics surveys conducted alongside multibeam mapping efforts inherently couple water column data with information on benthic habitats and provide information on the heterogeneity of both benthic habitats and biota in the water column. Building on this information serves to inform resource managers regarding how fishes are organized around habitat structure and the scale at which these relationships are important. Where resource managers require place-based assessments regarding the location of critical habitats along with high abundances of fish, concurrent multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys serve as an important tool for characterizing and prioritizing coral reef ecosystems. This report summarizes the evolution of fisheries acoustics surveys onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster from 2008 to 2010, in conjunction with multibeam data collection, aimed at characterizing benthic and mid-water habitats in high priority conservation areas around the USVI and Puerto Rico. It also serves as a resource for the continued development of consistent data products derived from acoustic surveys. By focusing on the activities of 2010, this report highlights the progress made to date and illustrates the potential application of fisheries data derived from acoustic surveys to the management of coral reef ecosystems.

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Digital maps of the shallow (<~30m deep) coral reef ecosystems of Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, were created through visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery acquired between 2004 and 2006. Reef ecosystem features were digitized directly into a Geographic Information System. Benthic features were categorized according to a classification scheme with attributes including zone (location such as lagoon or forereef, etc.), structure (bottom type such as sand or patch reef, etc.) and percent hard bottom. This atlas consists of 27 detailed maps displaying reef zone and structure of coral ecosystems around Majuro. Adjacent maps in the atlas overlap slightly to ensure complete coverage. Maps and associated products can be used to support science and management activities on Majuro reef ecosystems including inventory, monitoring, conservation, and sustainable development applications. Maps are not to be used for navigation.

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Coral reefs are facing major global and local threats due to climate change-induced increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and because of land-derived increases in organic and inorganic nutrients. Recent research revealed that high availability of labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC) negatively affects scleractinian corals. Studies on the interplay of these factors, however, are lacking, but urgently needed to understand coral reef functioning under present and near future conditions. This experimental study investigated the individual and combined effects of ambient and high DIC (pCO2 403 μatm/ pHTotal 8.2 and 996 μatm/pHTotal 7.8) and DOC (added as Glucose 0 and 294 μmol L-1, background DOC concentration of 83 μmol L-1) availability on the physiology (net and gross photosynthesis, respiration, dark and light calcification, and growth) of the scleractinian coral Acropora millepora (Ehrenberg, 1834) from the Great Barrier Reef over a 16 day interval. High DIC availability did not affect photosynthesis, respiration and light calcification, but significantly reduced dark calcification and growth by 50 and 23%, respectively. High DOC availability reduced net and gross photosynthesis by 51% and 39%, respectively, but did not affect respiration. DOC addition did not influence calcification, but significantly increased growth by 42%. Combination of high DIC and high DOC availability did not affect photosynthesis, light calcification, respiration or growth, but significantly decreased dark calcification when compared to both controls and DIC treatments. On the ecosystem level, high DIC concentrations may lead to reduced accretion and growth of reefs dominated by Acropora that under elevated DOC concentrations will likely exhibit reduced primary production rates, ultimately leading to loss of hard substrate and reef erosion. It is therefore important to consider the potential impacts of elevated DOC and DIC simultaneously to assess real world scenarios, as multiple rather than single factors influence key physiological processes in coral reefs.

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The severity of the impact of elevated atmospheric pCO2 to coral reef ecosystems depends, in part, on how seawater pCO2 affects the balance between calcification and dissolution of carbonate sediments. Presently, there are insufficient published data that relate concentrations of pCO2 and CO3**2- to in situ rates of reef calcification in natural settings to accurately predict the impact of elevated atmospheric pCO2 on calcification and dissolution processes. Rates of net calcification and dissolution, CO3**2- concentrations, and pCO2 were measured, in situ, on patch reefs, bare sand, and coral rubble on the Molokai reef flat in Hawaii. Rates of calcification ranged from 0.03 to 2.30 mmol CaCO3/m**2/h and dissolution ranged from -0.05 to -3.3 mmol CaCO3/m**2/h. Calcification and dissolution varied diurnally with net calcification primarily occurring during the day and net dissolution occurring at night. These data were used to calculate threshold values for pCO2 and CO3**2- at which rates of calcification and dissolution are equivalent. Results indicate that calcification and dissolution are linearly correlated with both CO3**2- and pCO2. Threshold pCO2 and CO3**2- values for individual substrate types showed considerable variation. The average pCO2 threshold value for all substrate types was 654±195 µatm and ranged from 467 to 1003 µatm. The average CO3**2- threshold value was 152±24 µmol/kg, ranging from 113 to 184 µmol/kg. Ambient seawater measurements of pCO2 and CO3**2- indicate that CO3**2- and pCO2 threshold values for all substrate types were both exceeded, simultaneously, 13% of the time at present day atmospheric pCO2 concentrations. It is predicted that atmospheric pCO2 will exceed the average pCO2 threshold value for calcification and dissolution on the Molokai reef flat by the year 2100.