Dealing with frame imperfections in a business survey: an empirical study using without replacement bootstrap

This paper approaches issues related to frame problems and nonresponse in surveys. These nonsampling errors affect the accuracy of the estimates whereas the estimators became biased and less precise. We analyse some estimation methods that deal with those problems and give an especial focus to post-stratification procedures.

Análise do desempenho na administração pública com recurso a rácios financeiros

O objetivo geral deste trabalho é a Análise do Desempenho na Administração Pública com recurso a Rácios Financeiros (Caso do Município de Matosinhos). Neste estudo iremos fazer uma análise económica e financeira do Município de Matosinhos avaliando seu o desempenho nos períodos de 2011 a 2014 e também, iremos analisar alguns fatores que influenciam a estrutura de capital dos 12 Municípios de grande dimensão e o seu desempenho. Quanto à análise económica e financeira do Município de Matosinhos, os resultados mostram, que a curto prazo é possível afirmar que o Município de Matosinhos se encontra numa situação favorável em termos de liquidez, com uma boa margem de segurança, ou seja, consegue solver os compromissos a curto. Verifica-se que o Município de Matosinhos ao longo do quadriénio foi recorrendo cada vez menos a capitais alheios para conseguir financiar os seus ativos, tendência positiva em termos do equilíbrio da estrutura financeira municipal. Tentando confirmar a existência ou inexistência de uma relação entre a estrutura de capital (endividamento) e o desempenho (rendibilidade do ativo) com os fatores que as influenciam, foi realizada uma análise de correlação não paramétrica de Spearman com recurso ao SPSS versão 21. Ao contrário da hipótese formulada e das conclusões chegadas em grande parte dos estudos efetuados, verifica-se a existência de uma relação negativa a um nível de significância de 5%, entre o nível de endividamento e a dimensão do Município. Quanto a relação o entre o endividamento com composição do ativo e a rendibilidade do ativo, os resultados não são satisfatórios, mostram uma inexistência da relação entre o endividamento e esses fatores. Verifica-se uma correlação positiva para um nível de significância de 1% entre a rendibilidade do ativo e crescimento, ou seja, os Municípios com maior taxa de crescimento apresentam uma maior rendibilidade do ativo. Este resultado confirma-se a nossa hipótese 4. Porém, em relação a associação positiva entre a rendibilidade do Município e a sua dimensão, os resultados evidenciaram uma inexistência de qualquer relação entre as variáveis.

Alterações da função visual e da qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde em indivíduos idosos

RESUMO: Introdução: A visão é um sentido fundamental na relação do indivíduo com os mais variados ambientes, sendo elemento central na funcionalidade e independência do idoso, qualquer perturbação da função visual provoca limitações na qualidade de vida. As alterações demográficas em curso caracterizam-se pelo envelhecimento progressivo da população, paralelamente constata-se um aumento da prevalência de perturbações do sistema visual com alteração da função e do funcionamento visual. Considerando que os indivíduos idosos são mais dependentes da visão, e que não existem para esta área estudos desenvolvidos em Portugal, esta investigação tem como fundamento analisar a influência que a perturbação da função visual em indivíduos com 65 ou mais anos tem na qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde. Estudaram-se também as características sócio-demográficas dos indivíduos participantes, da saúde visual e a percepção da saúde geral, bem como identificaram se junto dos idosos participantes e de Médicos especialistas em Medicina Geral e Familiar perspectivas sobre perturbações da função visual e envelhecimento. Desenho de estudo: Estudo transversal, caso-controlo e descritivo-exploratório. Materiais e Métodos: A partir de uma população de 112 indivíduos com 65 ou mais anos, frequentadores de várias instituições de apoio social do Concelho de Loures e de idosos frequentadores/institucionalizados da Mansão de Santa Maria de Marvila, unidade orgânica da Fundação D. Pedro IV, foram incluídos no estudo 90 (80,4%). Após consentimento informado, procedeu-se à avaliação da função visual nos Laboratórios de Ortóptica da Escola Superior de Tecnologia de Saúde de Lisboa, onde também se aplicaram o Questionário de Funcionamento Visual VFQ-25 e uma questão aberta para o tipo de dificuldades de visão sentidas durante o último ano. Aplicou-se ainda, em ambiente virtual, uma pergunta aberta a Médicos especialistas em Medicina Geral e Familiar para aspectos relacionados com o diagnóstico/suspeita relativamente tardio de perturbações da função visual. Procedeu-se ao tratamento descritivo das características sócio-demográficas, da percepção de saúde geral e da saúde visual e das respostas dos idosos e dos médicos. Analisou-se a relação entre função visual e qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde aplicando o teste não-paramétrico de Mann-Whitney. Resultados: Constatou-se que os indivíduos da amostra são maioritariamente do género feminino (71,1%), casados (41,1%), detentores de baixos níveis de escolaridade em que 63,3% apenas frequentou/concluiu o 1º ciclo do ensino básico e quase na sua totalidade reformados (88,9%). Verifica-se que 77,8% dos idosos percepciona a sua saúde geral como razoável ou boa. Da mesma forma, 86,7% dos indivíduos têm a função visual alterada devido principalmente à alteração da acuidade visual para longe (86,7%), registando-se que 65,5% dos olhos tinham uma acuidade visual igual ou superior a 5/10. Outras dimensões que contribuíram para a alteração da função visual contam-se a sensibilidade ao contraste (63,3%), estereopsia (51,1%), visão cromática (38,9%) e a motilidade ocular (25,6%). Obtiveram-se assim maiores pontuações para as diversas escalas do questionário VFQ-25 em indivíduos com função visual alterada exceptuando nas escalas actividades de perto, condução e dependência. Verificou-se portanto existir relação entre alteração da função visual e perturbação da qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde. À questão colocada aos idosos, 42,6% não manifestou qualquer razão para que visse mal/sentisse dificuldades de visão durante o último ano. A diminuição da acuidade visual para longe/perto foi referida por 20,5% dos indivíduos, seguido pela deterioração do estado de saúde geral e ocular por 15%. As respostas do Médicos especialistas em Medicina Geral e Familiar sobre razões para a suspeita/diagnóstico relativamente tardia das perturbações da função visual, indicam a iliteracia dos idosos para a saúde da visão e semiologia ocular (34%), a baixa formação/informação dos Médicos de Medicina Geral e Familiar na área da saúde da visão (22%) e a pouca acessibilidade e resposta demorada/ineficaz dos serviços de oftalmologia do SNS (20%) como principais motivos para os assuntos questionados.Conclusões: As alterações do sistema visual com impacto na função e no funcionamento visual alteram a qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde, devido principalmente à alteração da acuidade visual para longe. Os idosos do estudo não valorizam a saúde visual ao percepcionarem positivamente a saúde geral e a saúde visual relativamente à avaliação da função visual. É fundamental definir estratégias e programas de literacia para a saúde da visão para toda a população, não apenas destinados a idosos. Sugere-se repensar o modelo de formação base dos Médicos com especial incidência na área da saúde da visão, com necessidades sentidas de formação/informação. As respostas obtidas dos idosos e dos Médicos indicaram existir fragilidades na saúde da visão, necessário repensar o modelo de prestação de cuidados de saúde nesta área. Esta investigação permitiu ao autor uma reflexão sobre as temáticas relacionadas com o envelhecimento levando a uma mudança de atitudes e comportamento na abordagem profissional a indivíduos idosos, promovendo autonomia nas escolhas e decisões em questões de saúde, na criação de estratégias para lidar com o problema de visão e na adaptação à nova condição de saúde da visão.---------------ABSTRACT:Purpose: The vision is a fundamental sense in the individual's relationship with the most varied environments, a central element in the functionality and independence of the elderly, any disturbance of visual function causes limitations in quality of life. The current demographic changes are characterized by progressive aging of population, there has been a parallel increase in the prevalence of disorders of the visual system by changing the visual function and functioning. Whereas the elderly are more dependent on vision, and there are no studies in this area developed in Portugal, this research is based analyze the influence that the disturbance of visual function in subjects aged 65 years or more has on the health related quality of life. We studied also the socio-demographic characteristics of the subjects, the eye health and general health perception, and identified themselves with the elderly participants and medical specialists in Family General Medicine perspective on disorders of visual function and aging. Design: Cross-sectional study, case control, descriptive and exploratory. Methods: From a population of 112 people with 65 or more years, regulars of various social welfare institutions of the Municipality of Loures and elderly regulars/institutionalized the Mansion of Santa Maria de Marvila, organic unity of the Foundation D. Pedro IV, were included 90 (80.4%). After informed consent, proceeded to the assessment of visual function in the Laboratories of Orthopticsof the School of Health Technology of Lisbon, where he also applied the Visual Functioning Questionnaire VFQ-25 and an open question for the type of vision difficulties experienced during the last year. Was applied also in a virtual environment, an open question to Doctors specialists in family general medicine related to the diagnosis/suspected relatively late disturbance of visual function. We carried out the descriptive treatment of socio-demographic characteristics, perception of general health and eye health and the responses of older people and doctors. We analyzed the relationship between visual function and quality of life related to health by applying the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test. Results: We found that individuals in the sample are mostly female (71.1%), married (41.1%), holders of low levels of education in which only 63.3% frequented / completed the 1st cycle of primary and almost entirely retired (88.9%). It is found that 77.8% of the elderly perceive their general health as fair or good. Likewise, 86.7% of individuals have altered vision mainly due to the change in visual acuity away (86.7%),up to 65.5% of eyes had a visual acuity of 5/10 or greater. Other dimensions that contributed to the alteration of visual function include contrast sensitivity (63.3%), stereopsis (51.1%), color vision (38.9%) and ocular motility (25.6%). There was thus obtained the highest scores for different scales of the questionnaire VFQ-25 in patients with altered vision except for scales related to near activities, driving and dependence. It is therefore a relationship between alteration in visual function and disturbance of quality of life related to health. To question for the elderly, 42.6% expressed no reason to see evil/feel difficulty seeing over the last year. The decrease in visual acuity for distance/near was reported by 20.5% of subjects, followed by the deterioration of general health and eye for 15%. The responses of medical specialists in general practice about reasons for the suspicion/diagnosis relatively late disturbance of visual function, indicate the illiteracy of the elderly for healthy vision and ocular semiology (34%), low education/information for Doctors in the health of vision (22%) and poor accessibility and response timeconsuming/ inefficient NHS ophthalmology services (20%) as main reasons for the subjects questioned. Conclusion: Changes in the visual system with an impact on visual function and the functioning change the health related quality of life, mainly due to the change in distance visual acuity. Older people do not value the visual health perceiving the general health and eye health positively relatively of visual function. It is essential to define strategies and literacy programs for eye health for the entire population, not just for the elderly. It is suggested reconsider the model of basic training of Doctors with special focus on the health of the vision, with special needs sensed training/information. The responses of older people and doctors have indicated there is weakness in eye health, need to rethink the model of health care in this area. This research allowed the author to reflect on issues related to aging leading to a change in attitudes and behavior in professional approach to the elderly, promoting autonomy in choices and decisions in health issues, creating strategies to deal with the problem of vision and adaptation to new conditions of eye health.

Onychomycosis in Patients with Chronic Leg Ulcer and Toenail Abnormalities

Nails have a limited number of reactive patterns to disease. Accordingly, toenail changes of different etiologies may mimic onychomycosis. OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of toenail onychomycosis among patients with leg ulcer and toenail abnormalities attending a dermatology clinic. METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted through the analysis of clinical records and results of mycological examination. RESULTS A total of 81 patients were included, with a median age of 76.0 years. Most ulcers were of venous etiology, followed by those of mixed and arterial pathogenesis. The mycological evaluation confirmed the diagnosis of onychomycosis in 27.2% of the patients. The etiologic agent was a dermatophyte in 59.1% of isolates in nail samples, while Trichophyton interdigitale was the most frequent fungal species (40.9%). CONCLUSIONS Most toenail abnormalities in patients with chronic leg ulcer were not onychomycosis. This study highlights the importance of systematic mycological examination in these patients, in order to avoid overtreatment with systemic antifungals, unnecessary costs and side effects.

Long-Term Recurrence of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer after Topical Methylaminolevulinate Photodynamic Therapy in a Dermato-Oncology Department

BACKGROUND: Most available studies on the efficacy of topical photodynamic therapy focus on short-to medium-term results. Long-term data are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term efficacy of photodynamic therapy with topical methylaminolevulinate to treat Bowen's disease and basal cell carcinoma in the clinical practice setting of a dermato-oncology department. METHODS: The study included patients diagnosed with Bowen's disease or basal cell carcinoma, and who received photodynamic therapy from 2004 to 2008. Treatment protocol and clinical follow-up were standardized. The primary endpoint was clinically observed recurrence in a previous photodynamic therapy-treated area. Descriptive and survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 31 Bowen's disease lesions and 44 superficial basal cell carcinoma were treated, with a median follow-up of 43.5 months. Recurrence was observed in 14 Bowen's disease lesions (53.8%) and in 11 superficial basal cell carcinoma (33.3%). Significantly higher estimates for recurrence rates were found in patients with Bowen's disease (p=0.0036) or those aged under 58 years (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with Bowen's disease than in those with superficial basal cell carcinoma and younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence should be considered when choosing to treat non-melanoma skin cancer with photodynamic therapy. Younger age and Bowen's disease were independent predictors for long-term recurrence, suggesting the need to establish an extended period of follow-up for this subset of patients.

Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística

Perturbações da deglutição : contribuição para a validação do P-EAT-10 numa população institucionalizada e utentes de Centro de Dia

RESUMO: O acelerado processo de envelhecimento da população portuguesa apresentando taxa negativa de crescimento (OCDE, 2013) corrobora para o surgimento de doença crónicas e incapacitantes que, por conseguinte, pode levar os idosos a apresentar dificuldades na deglutição. Alguns instrumentos de despiste das dificuldades de deglutição estão surgindo ao longo dos últimos anos facilitando o rastreio rápido dessas dificuldades. Objectivo: Este trabalho teve como objectivos de estudo caracterizar uma população de idosos institucionalizados e utentes de centro de dia quantos aos seus dados sócio demográficos, deglutição e a linguagem, bem como contribuir para a validação da versão portuguesa do P-EAT-10. Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo do tipo descritivo, transversal, analítico-correlacional com abordagem quantitativa, onde foi feito um levantamento dos dados sociodemográficos e das condições de saúde de 30 idosos institucionalizados e utentes de centro de dia, de ambos os sexos e com idades acima dos 64 anos. Foram aplicados instrumentos para verificar a percepção do estado de saúde (EQ-5D), o estado cognitivo (MMSE), o estado de depressão (EDP), o grau de dependência (IB), a deglutição (P-EAT-10 e 3OZ Wst), a linguagem (TN e TT). Algumas hipóteses foram levantadas e para estudálas utilizamos testes não-paramétricos (U de Mann Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis e Correlação de Spearman, p<0,05). Resultados: Observou-se que os idosos do sexo feminino é maioria (72,7%) na população estudada. Os idosos com mais de 84 anos apresentaram maior percentagem de deficit cognitivo e sinais depressivos. Quanto a deglutição a maioria dos idosos tem percepção das dificuldades de deglutição. Verificou-se haver relação significativa entre o score do P-EAT-10 e o score do 3OZwst (p= 0,016), assim como também entre as habilitações literárias, as morbilidades e a linguagem (nomeação, p<0,047). Conclusão: Nosso estudo levou-nos a concluir a necessidade de testes de rastreio para as dificuldades da deglutição para a população em estudo, sendo o P-EAT-10 um bom instrumento e que associado a outros instrumentos de avaliação podem ajudar na prevenção das dificuldades de deglutição/ disfagia.---------------ABSTRACT:The accelerated aging of the Portuguese population showed a negative growth rate (OECD, 2013) corroborates the emergence of chronic and disabling diseases. Therefore, can lead seniors have difficulty in swallowing. Some screening instruments of swallowing difficulties are emerging over the last few years facilitating rapid screening of these difficulties. Methods: We conducted a descriptive study, crosssectional,correlational with quantitative analytical approach, where a survey was made of sociodemographic and health status of 30 institutionalized elderly and users of the day center, of both sexes and ages above 64 years. Instruments were applied to verify the perception of health status (EQ-5D), cognitive status (MMSE), the severity of depression (EDP), the degree of dependence (IB), swallowing (P-EAT-10:03 OZ Wst), and language (TN and TT). Some hypotheses were to study them and used nonparametric tests (Mann-Whitney U, Kruskal-Wallis and Spearman correlation, p <0.05). Results: It was observed that the elderly female is majority (72.7%) in the study population. Elderly patients over 84 years were mainly cognitive deficits and depressive signs. As for swallowing most seniors have perceptions of swallowing difficulties. Found to be no significant relationship between the score of the P-EAT-10 score and the 3OZwst (p = 0.016), as well as between educational attainment, the morbidities and language (naming, p <0.047). Conclusion: Our study led us to conclude the need for screening tests for swallowing difficulties for the population being studied, and the PEAT-10 a good instrument and associated with other assessment tools can help to prevent difficulties swallowing / dysphagia.

A solution for estimates in software development projects

The Corporate world is becoming more and more competitive. This leads organisations to adapt to this reality, by adopting more efficient processes, which result in a decrease in cost as well as an increase of product quality. One of these processes consists in making proposals to clients, which necessarily include a cost estimation of the project. This estimation is the main focus of this project. In particular, one of the goals is to evaluate which estimation models fit the Altran Portugal software factory the most, the organization where the fieldwork of this thesis will be carried out. There is no broad agreement about which is the type of estimation model more suitable to be used in software projects. Concerning contexts where there is plenty of objective information available to be used as input to an estimation model, model-based methods usually yield better results than the expert judgment. However, what happens more frequently is not having this volume and quality of information, which has a negative impact in the model-based methods performance, favouring the usage of expert judgement. In practice, most organisations use expert judgment, making themselves dependent on the expert. A common problem found is that the performance of the expert’s estimation depends on his previous experience with identical projects. This means that when new types of projects arrive, the estimation will have an unpredictable accuracy. Moreover, different experts will make different estimates, based on their individual experience. As a result, the company will not directly attain a continuous growing knowledge about how the estimate should be carried. Estimation models depend on the input information collected from previous projects, the size of the project database and the resources available. Altran currently does not store the input information from previous projects in a systematic way. It has a small project database and a team of experts. Our work is targeted to companies that operate in similar contexts. We start by gathering information from the organisation in order to identify which estimation approaches can be applied considering the organization’s context. A gap analysis is used to understand what type of information the company would have to collect so that other approaches would become available. Based on our assessment, in our opinion, expert judgment is the most adequate approach for Altran Portugal, in the current context. We analysed past development and evolution projects from Altran Portugal and assessed their estimates. This resulted in the identification of common estimation deviations, errors, and patterns, which lead to the proposal of metrics to help estimators produce estimates leveraging past projects quantitative and qualitative information in a convenient way. This dissertation aims to contribute to more realistic estimates, by identifying shortcomings in the current estimation process and supporting the self-improvement of the process, by gathering as much relevant information as possible from each finished project.

Electrohysterogram signal component cataloging with spectral and time-frequency methods

The Electrohysterogram (EHG) is a new instrument for pregnancy monitoring. It measures the uterine muscle electrical signal, which is closely related with uterine contractions. The EHG is described as a viable alternative and a more precise instrument than the currently most widely used method for the description of uterine contractions: the external tocogram. The EHG has also been indicated as a promising tool in the assessment of preterm delivery risk. This work intends to contribute towards the EHG characterization through the inventory of its components which are: • Contractions; • Labor contractions; • Alvarez waves; • Fetal movements; • Long Duration Low Frequency Waves; The instruments used for cataloging were: Spectral Analysis, parametric and non-parametric, energy estimators, time-frequency methods and the tocogram annotated by expert physicians. The EHG and respective tocograms were obtained from the Icelandic 16-electrode Electrohysterogram Database. 288 components were classified. There is not a component database of this type available for consultation. The spectral analysis module and power estimation was added to Uterine Explorer, an EHG analysis software developed in FCT-UNL. The importance of this component database is related to the need to improve the understanding of the EHG which is a relatively complex signal, as well as contributing towards the detection of preterm birth. Preterm birth accounts for 10% of all births and is one of the most relevant obstetric conditions. Despite the technological and scientific advances in perinatal medicine, in developed countries, prematurity is the major cause of neonatal death. Although various risk factors such as previous preterm births, infection, uterine malformations, multiple gestation and short uterine cervix in second trimester, have been associated with this condition, its etiology remains unknown [1][2][3].

Premature thelarche: identification of clinical and laboratory data for the diagnosis of precocious puberty

PURPOSE: Two groups of girls with premature breast development were studied retrospectively. We tried to identify clinical, radiological, and hormonal parameters that could distinguish between a benign, nonprogressive premature thelarche and a true precocious puberty. METHODS: The clinical outcome of 88 girls with breast enlargement before 6.1 years of age was analyzed. Taking into account the progression of their sexual maturation, we allocated the children into 2 groups: "Isolated Premature Thelarche" (n = 63) and "Precocious Puberty" (n = 25) groups. Chronological and bone ages, height and growth velocity centiles, computerized tomography of hypothalamus-pituitary area, pelvic ultrasonography, gonadotropin response to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation as well as basal levels of luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, estradiol, and prolactin were studied in both groups. Statistical analysis were performed using the Student t test to compare the sample means. Fisher's exact test and chi² test were used to analyze the nonparametric variables. RESULTS: Isolated premature thelarche most frequently affected girls younger than 2 years who presented exaggerated follicle-stimulating hormone response to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation test. The precocious puberty group had higher initial stature, accelerated growth rate and bone age, increased uterine and ovarian volumes, high spontaneous luteinizing hormone levels by immunofluorimetric assay, as well as a high luteinizing hormone response and peak luteinizing hormone/follicle-stimulating hormone ratio after luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation. CONCLUSION: At initial presentation, girls who undergo true precocious puberty present advanced bone age, increased uterine and ovarian volumes in addition to breast enlargement, as well as an luteinizing hormone-predominant response after a luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone stimulation test.

Orthogonal models, structure crossing, nesting and inference

We intend to study the algebraic structure of the simple orthogonal models to use them, through binary operations as building blocks in the construction of more complex orthogonal models. We start by presenting some matrix results considering Commutative Jordan Algebras of symmetric matrices, CJAs. Next, we use these results to study the algebraic structure of orthogonal models, obtained by crossing and nesting simpler ones. Then, we study the normal models with OBS, which can also be orthogonal models. We intend to study normal models with OBS (Orthogonal Block Structure), NOBS (Normal Orthogonal Block Structure), obtaining condition for having complete and suffcient statistics, having UMVUE, is unbiased estimators with minimal covariance matrices whatever the variance components. Lastly, see ([Pereira et al. (2014)]), we study the algebraic structure of orthogonal models, mixed models whose variance covariance matrices are all positive semi definite, linear combinations of known orthogonal pairwise orthogonal projection matrices, OPOPM, and whose least square estimators, LSE, of estimable vectors are best linear unbiased estimator, BLUE, whatever the variance components, so they are uniformly BLUE, UBLUE. From the results of the algebraic structure we will get explicit expressions for the LSE of these models.

Mapping the Pasture Steppe in Bayankhongor, Mongolia: comparison of classification methods, using Landsat-8 and geophysical data

Grasslands in semi-arid regions, like Mongolian steppes, are facing desertification and degradation processes, due to climate change. Mongolia’s main economic activity consists on an extensive livestock production and, therefore, it is a concerning matter for the decision makers. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems provide the tools for advanced ecosystem management and have been widely used for monitoring and management of pasture resources. This study investigates which is the higher thematic detail that is possible to achieve through remote sensing, to map the steppe vegetation, using medium resolution earth observation imagery in three districts (soums) of Mongolia: Dzag, Buutsagaan and Khureemaral. After considering different thematic levels of detail for classifying the steppe vegetation, the existent pasture types within the steppe were chosen to be mapped. In order to investigate which combination of data sets yields the best results and which classification algorithm is more suitable for incorporating these data sets, a comparison between different classification methods were tested for the study area. Sixteen classifications were performed using different combinations of estimators, Landsat-8 (spectral bands and Landsat-8 NDVI-derived) and geophysical data (elevation, mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature) using two classification algorithms, maximum likelihood and decision tree. Results showed that the best performing model was the one that incorporated Landsat-8 bands with mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature (Model 13), using the decision tree. For maximum likelihood, the model that incorporated Landsat-8 bands with mean annual precipitation (Model 5) and the one that incorporated Landsat-8 bands with mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature (Model 13), achieved the higher accuracies for this algorithm. The decision tree models consistently outperformed the maximum likelihood ones.

A structured inventory of spiders (Arachnida, Araneae) in natural and artificial forest gaps at Porto Urucu, Western Brazilian Amazonia

A preliminary survey of the spider fauna in natural and artificial forest gap formations at “Porto Urucu”, a petroleum/natural gas production facility in the Urucu river basin, Coari, Amazonas, Brazil is presented. Sampling was conducted both occasionally and using a protocol composed of a suite of techniques: beating trays (32 samples), nocturnal manual samplings (48), sweeping nets (16), Winkler extractors (24), and pitfall traps (120). A total of 4201 spiders, belonging to 43 families and 393 morphospecies, were collected during the dry season, in July, 2003. Excluding the occasional samples, the observed richness was 357 species. In a performance test of seven species richness estimators, the Incidence Based Coverage Estimator (ICE) was the best fit estimator, with 639 estimated species. To evaluate differences in species richness associated with natural and artificial gaps, samples from between the center of the gaps up to 300 meters inside the adjacent forest matrix were compared through the inspection of the confidence intervals of individual-based rarefaction curves for each treatment. The observed species richness was significantly higher in natural gaps combined with adjacent forest than in the artificial gaps combined with adjacent forest. Moreover, a community similarity analysis between the fauna collected under both treatments demonstrated that there were considerable differences in species composition. The significantly higher abundance of Lycosidae in artificial gap forest is explained by the presence of herbaceous vegetation in the gaps themselves. Ctenidae was significantly more abundant in the natural gap forest, probable due to the increase of shelter availability provided by the fallen trees in the gaps themselves. Both families are identified as potential indicators of environmental change related to the establishment or recovery of artificial gaps in the study area.

Notes on necrophagous flies (Diptera: Calyptratae) associated to fish carrion in Colombian Amazon

In recent years, there has been an increasing number of studies on carrion fly communities due to their medical importance and as a consequence of the large number of studies on forensic entomology. Surprisingly few studies have adressed with the asynantropic flies of the Amazon, and none were done in Colombia. A faunistic study of asynantropic flies of the families Calliphoridae, Sarcophagidae, Muscidae and Fannidae in three different landscapes of the Colombian Amazon is presented, trapping effectiveness is assessed, and the first record of Mesembrinella batesi (Aldrich, 1922) and Fannia femoralis (Stein, 1897) from Colombia is reported.

Predicting SO2 pollution incidents by means of additive models with optimum variable selection

The aim of this paper is to predict time series of SO2 concentrations emitted by coal-fired power stations in order to estimate in advance emission episodes and analyze the influence of some meteorological variables in the prediction. An emission episode is said to occur when the series of bi-hourly means of SO2 is greater than a specific level. For coal-fired power stations it is essential to predict emission epi- sodes sufficiently in advance so appropriate preventive measures can be taken. We proposed a meth- odology to predict SO2 emission episodes based on using an additive model and an algorithm for variable selection. The methodology was applied to the estimation of SO2 emissions registered in sampling lo- cations near a coal-fired power station located in Northern Spain. The results obtained indicate a good performance of the model considering only two terms of the time series and that the inclusion of the meteorological variables in the model is not significant.