Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Need to strengthen controls over use of modified live virus vaccines in the hog cholera eradication program [of the] Agricultural Research Service, Department of Agriculture; report to the Congress of the United States

Mode of access: Internet.

Bluetongue disease in cattle (Ibaraki virus) : a bibliography /

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Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

Differences in climatic factors between Ross River virus disease outbreak and nonoutbreak years

Ross River virus is a common mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand climatic factors preceding outbreaks, we compared seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature trends in outbreak and nonoutbreak years at four epidemic-prone locations. Our analyses showed that rainfall in outbreak years tended to be above average and higher than rainfall in nonoutbreak years. Overall temperatures were warmer during outbreak years. However, there were a number of distinct deviations in temperature, which seem to play a role in either promoting or inhibiting outbreaks. These preliminary findings show that climatic differences occur between outbreak and nonoutbreak years; however, seasonal and monthly trends differed across geo-climatic regions of the country. More detailed research is imperative if we are to optimize the surveillance and control of epidemic polyarthritic disease in Australia.

Risks for ross river virus disease in tropical Australia

Background There are no analytical studies of individual risks for Ross River virus (RRV) disease. Therefore, we set out to determine individual risk and protective factors for RRV disease in a high incidence area and to assess the utility of the case-control design applied for this purpose to an arbovirus disease. Methods We used a prospective matched case-control study of new community cases of RRV disease in the local government areas of Cairns, Mareeba, Douglas, and Atherton, in tropical Queensland, from January I to May 31, 1998. Results Protective measures against mosquitoes reduced the risk for disease. Mosquito coils, repellents, and citronella candles each decreased risk by at least 2-fold, with a dose-response for the number of protective measures used. Light-coloured clothing decreased risk 3-fold. Camping increased the risk 8-fold. Conclusions These risks were substantial and statistically significant, and provide a basis for educational programs on individual protection against RRV disease in Australia. Our study demonstrates the utility of the case-control method for investigating arbovirus risks. Such a risk analysis has not been done before for RRV infection, and is infrequently reported for other arbovirus infections.

Hepatitis B surface antigen vector delivers protective cytotoxic T-lymphocyte responses to disease-relevant foreign epitopes

Although hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) per se is highly immunogenic, its use as a vector for the delivery of foreign cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes has met with little success because of constraints on HBsAg stability and secretion imposed by the insertion of foreign sequence into critical hydrophobic/amphipathic regions. Using a strategy entailing deletion of DNA encoding HBsAg-specific CTL epitopes and replacement with DNA encoding foreign CTL epitopes, we have derived chimeric HBsAg DNA immunogens which elicited effector and memory CTL responses in vitro, and pathogen- and tumor-protective responses in vivo, when the chimeric HBsAg DNAs were used to immunize mice. We further show that HBsAg DNA recombinant for both respiratory syncytial virus and human papillomavirus CTL epitopes elicited simultaneous responses to both pathogens. These data demonstrate the efficacy of HBsAg DNA as a vector for the delivery of disease-relevant protective CTL responses. They also suggest the applicability of the approach of deriving chimeric HBsAg DNA immunogens simultaneously encoding protective CTL epitopes for multiple diseases. The DNAs we tested formed chimeric HBsAg virus-like particles (VLPs). Thus, our results have implications for the development of vaccination strategies using either chimeric HBsAg DNA or VLP vaccines. HBsAg is the globally administered vaccine for hepatitis B virus infection, inviting its usage as a vector for the delivery of immunogens from other diseases.

Ross River virus disease clusters and spatial relationship with mosquito biting exposure in Redland Shire, southern Queensland, Australia

The spatial heterogeneity in the risk of Ross River virus (family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, RRV) disease, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, was examined in Redland Shire in southern Queensland, Australia. Disease cases, complaints from residents of intense mosquito biting exposure, and human population data were mapped using a geographic information system. Surface maps of RRV disease age-sex standardized morbidity ratios and mosquito biting complaint morbidity ratios were created. To determine whether there was significant spatial variation in disease and complaint patterns, a spatial scan analysis method was used to test whether the number of cases and complaints was distributed according to underlying population at risk. Several noncontiguous areas in proximity to productive saline water habitats of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), a recognized vector of RRV, had higher than expected numbers of RRV disease cases and complaints. Disease rates in human populations in areas which had high numbers of adult Ae. vigilax in carbon dioxide- and octenol-baited light traps were up to 2.9 times those in areas that rarely had high numbers of mosquitoes. It was estimated that targeted control of adult Ae. vigilax in these high-risk areas could potentially reduce the RRV disease incidence by an average of 13.6%. Spatial correlation was found between RRV disease risk and complaints from residents of mosquito biting. Based on historical patterns of RRV transmission throughout Redland Shire and estimated future human population growth in areas with higher than average RRV disease incidence, it was estimated that RRV incidence rates will increase by 8% between 2001 and 2021. The use of arbitrary administrative areas that ranged in size from 4.6 to 318.3 km2, has the potential to mask any small scale heterogeneity in disease patterns. With the availability of georeferenced data sets and high-resolution imagery, it is becoming more feasible to undertake spatial analyses at relatively small scales.

Associations between exposure to viruses and bovine respiratory disease in Australian feedlot cattle

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most important cause of clinical disease and death in feedlot cattle. Respiratory viral infections are key components in predisposing cattle to the development of this disease. To quantify the contribution of four viruses commonly associated with BRD, a case-control study was conducted nested within the National Bovine Respiratory Disease Initiative project population in Australian feedlot cattle. Effects of exposure to Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (BVDV-1), Bovine herpesvirus 1 (BoHV-1), Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) and Bovine parainfluenza virus 3 (BPIV-3), and to combinations of these viruses, were investigated. Based on weighted seroprevalences at induction (when animals were enrolled and initial samples collected), the percentages of the project population estimated to be seropositive were 24% for BoHV-1, 69% for BVDV-1, 89% for BRSV and 91% for BPIV-3. For each of the four viruses, seropositivity at induction was associated with reduced risk of BRD (OR: 0.6–0.9), and seroincrease from induction to second blood sampling (35–60 days after induction) was associated with increased risk of BRD (OR: 1.3–1.5). Compared to animals that were seropositive for all four viruses at induction, animals were at progressively increased risk with increasing number of viruses for which they were seronegative; those seronegative for all four viruses were at greatest risk (OR: 2.4). Animals that seroincreased for one or more viruses from induction to second blood sampling were at increased risk (OR: 1.4–2.1) of BRD compared to animals that did not seroincrease for any viruses. Collectively these results confirm that prior exposure to these viruses is protective while exposure at or after feedlot entry increases the risk of development of BRD in feedlots. However, the modest increases in risk associated with seroincrease for each virus separately, and the progressive increases in risk with multiple viral exposures highlights the importance of concurrent infections in the aetiology of the BRD complex. These findings indicate that, while efficacious vaccines could aid in the control of BRD, vaccination against one of these viruses would not have large effects on population BRD incidence but vaccination against multiple viruses would be expected to result in greater reductions in incidence. The findings also confirm the multifactorial nature of BRD development, and indicate that multifaceted approaches in addition to efficacious vaccines against viruses will be required for substantial reductions in BRD incidence.

Effects of exposure to Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 on risk of bovine respiratory disease in Australian feedlot cattle

Viruses play a key role in the complex aetiology of bovine respiratory disease (BRD). Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (BVDV-1) is widespread in Australia and has been shown to contribute to BRD occurrence. As part of a prospective longitudinal study on BRD, effects of exposure to BVDV-1 on risk of BRD in Australian feedlot cattle were investigated. A total of 35,160 animals were enrolled at induction (when animals were identified and characteristics recorded), held in feedlot pens with other cattle (cohorts) and monitored for occurrence of BRD over the first 50 days following induction. Biological samples collected from all animals were tested to determine which animals were persistently infected (PI) with BVDV-1. Data obtained from the Australian National Livestock Identification System database were used to determine which groups of animals that were together at the farm of origin and at 28 days prior to induction (and were enrolled in the study) contained a PI animal and hence to identify animals that had probably been exposed to a PI animal prior to induction. Multi-level Bayesian logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the effects of exposure to BVDV-1 on the risk of occurrence of BRD.Although only a total of 85 study animals (0.24%) were identified as being PI with BVDV-1, BVDV-1 was detected on quantitative polymerase chain reaction in 59% of cohorts. The PI animals were at moderately increased risk of BRD (OR 1.9; 95% credible interval 1.0-3.2). Exposure to BVDV-1 in the cohort was also associated with a moderately increased risk of BRD (OR 1.7; 95% credible interval 1.1-2.5) regardless of whether or not a PI animal was identified within the cohort. Additional analyses indicated that a single quantitative real-time PCR test is useful for distinguishing PI animals from transiently infected animals.The results of the study suggest that removal of PI animals and/or vaccination, both before feedlot entry, would reduce the impact of BVDV-1 on BRD risk in cattle in Australian feedlots. Economic assessment of these strategies under Australian conditions is required. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.